[Vicious]

I like this thread so far and it has real promise if "LOL EU" type posts are kept out.

As mentioned there are some very interesting and impactful elections coming up in Europe in the close future. Unlike the US Europe has had plenty of instances where parties with a focus on nationalism has made headway. And the coming years will likely prove a decisive moment with the opportunity for a wide steo to the right for several countries governments.

I am badly hoping that the European countries do not descend into economic isolationism however like what Trump has telegraphed for the US. This has never worked in the history of the continent.

[britchard]

(11-13-2016 06:17 AM)Vicious Wrote:  

I like this thread so far and it has real promise if "LOL EU" type posts are kept out.

As mentioned there are some very interesting and impactful elections coming up in Europe in the close future. Unlike the US Europe has had plenty of instances where parties with a focus on nationalism has made headway. And the coming years will likely prove a decisive moment with the opportunity for a wide steo to the right for several countries governments.

I am badly hoping that the European countries do not descend into economic isolationism however like what Trump has telegraphed for the US. This has never worked in the history of the continent.

Yeah the intention of the thread is to discuss national politics, athough I recognise that the EU may feature in some of those discussions.

European countries can't descend in to economic isolationism as they are too small and not diverse enough in terms of economic output. However there is no need for a political union (i.e. what the EU has become over the last 25 years) for economic trade.

[Vicious]

There are points to certain political unions, in particular when it comes to border/immigration agreements and how to reinforce these.

[Elster]

What about Denmark? Would you give any substance to its debates on breaking away?

[Beirut]

(11-11-2016 02:07 PM)britchard Wrote:  

However Sarkozy has shifted quite far to the right since his presidency. I suspect it is a combination of him realising that France will fall soon if nothing is done, his anger at the terror attacks and wanting to take votes from Le Pen.

If I knew he was going to stick to his word, I honestly wouldn't mind Sarkozy as President, he's very right-wing as French people go. He's also a bit of a womaniser and a throwback to the old days.

I think the sound of Trump, May, Sarkozy, Putin, Duterte, etc as our leaders instead of people like Obama, Cameron and Hollande is much more pleasing. All that needs to be done now is to get rid of Merkel!

I would even prefer Hollande to Sarkozy, because these "fake right" politicians dilute nationalist sentiment with their empty rhetoric but end up following a counterproductive agenda.
At least with Hollande you end up igniting more fire to the rightist base.

To me Sarkozy is the equivalent of neo cons in America. Perceived as right wing hawks but in reality working against it and pursuing other interests.

Sarkozy has been tried and didnt do much. He is not an agent of change. At best he wont make it worse.


Lepen is the only agent of change. I will say Lepen>Trump even because she is more pure in her understanding and struggle against international policies that have plagued the world. Her father was even better but she has polished her message a little so she can expand the base. Her father unfortunately wouldnt have had a chance even now because he was successfully vilified for far too long.

The only way any meaningful change will happen is if Lepen is elected.

[britchard]

(11-13-2016 09:39 AM)El_Gostro Wrote:  

What about Denmark? Would you give any substance to its debates on breaking away?

Yes, definitely. Both the left AND the right want an EU referendum, but they won't be granted this until at least the next general election (current prime minister doesn't want one'.

Denmark is a rich country that is a net contributor to the EU, and will likely start to suffer due to its shared borders with the third-world refugee havens of Sweden and Germany.

However if you were a betting man, I'd tell you you're money is best placed on France or the Netherlands leaving next. If France leaves, the EU is over as it will have lost 2/3 of the real economic powerhouses that used to be in it.

(11-13-2016 10:21 AM)Beirut Wrote:  

(11-11-2016 02:07 PM)britchard Wrote:  

However Sarkozy has shifted quite far to the right since his presidency. I suspect it is a combination of him realising that France will fall soon if nothing is done, his anger at the terror attacks and wanting to take votes from Le Pen.

If I knew he was going to stick to his word, I honestly wouldn't mind Sarkozy as President, he's very right-wing as French people go. He's also a bit of a womaniser and a throwback to the old days.

I think the sound of Trump, May, Sarkozy, Putin, Duterte, etc as our leaders instead of people like Obama, Cameron and Hollande is much more pleasing. All that needs to be done now is to get rid of Merkel!

I would even prefer Hollande to Sarkozy, because these "fake right" politicians dilute nationalist sentiment with their empty rhetoric but end up following a counterproductive agenda.
At least with Hollande you end up igniting more fire to the rightist base.

To me Sarkozy is the equivalent of neo cons in America. Perceived as right wing hawks but in reality working against it and pursuing other interests.

Sarkozy has been tried and didnt do much. He is not an agent of change. At best he wont make it worse.

Lepen is the only agent of change. I will say Lepen>Trump even because she is more pure in her understanding and struggle against international policies that have plagued the world. Her father was even better but she has polished her message a little so she can expand the base. Her father unfortunately wouldnt have had a chance even now because he was successfully vilified for far too long.

The only way any meaningful change will happen is if Lepen is elected.

I don't think France will last another 5 years if it elects Hollande or any other Socialist Party president. It is unlikely that the Socialists will win the election.

So you would rather have Juppe over Sarkozy? Juppe is a centrist, the definition of what the alt-right call a 'cuckservative'. Sarkozy has become more right-wing, and him being the candidate for the republicans will actually help Le Pen.

I assume you are aware of the tactic in France where if the second round of any election is between the Front National and either the Socialists or Republicans, supporters of the 2 main parties will vote against the Front National? Socialist voters will be much more inclined to vote for Juppe than Sarkozy, so if Sarkozy were the nominee, it could potentially open the door for Le Pen.

[Beirut]

(11-13-2016 12:12 PM)britchard Wrote:  

(11-13-2016 09:39 AM)El_Gostro Wrote:  

What about Denmark? Would you give any substance to its debates on breaking away?

Yes, definitely. Both the left AND the right want an EU referendum, but they won't be granted this until at least the next general election (current prime minister doesn't want one'.

Denmark is a rich country that is a net contributor to the EU, and will likely start to suffer due to its shared borders with the third-world refugee havens of Sweden and Germany.

However if you were a betting man, I'd tell you you're money is best placed on France or the Netherlands leaving next. If France leaves, the EU is over as it will have lost 2/3 of the real economic powerhouses that used to be in it.

(11-13-2016 10:21 AM)Beirut Wrote:  

(11-11-2016 02:07 PM)britchard Wrote:  

However Sarkozy has shifted quite far to the right since his presidency. I suspect it is a combination of him realising that France will fall soon if nothing is done, his anger at the terror attacks and wanting to take votes from Le Pen.

If I knew he was going to stick to his word, I honestly wouldn't mind Sarkozy as President, he's very right-wing as French people go. He's also a bit of a womaniser and a throwback to the old days.

I think the sound of Trump, May, Sarkozy, Putin, Duterte, etc as our leaders instead of people like Obama, Cameron and Hollande is much more pleasing. All that needs to be done now is to get rid of Merkel!

I would even prefer Hollande to Sarkozy, because these "fake right" politicians dilute nationalist sentiment with their empty rhetoric but end up following a counterproductive agenda.
At least with Hollande you end up igniting more fire to the rightist base.

To me Sarkozy is the equivalent of neo cons in America. Perceived as right wing hawks but in reality working against it and pursuing other interests.

Sarkozy has been tried and didnt do much. He is not an agent of change. At best he wont make it worse.

Lepen is the only agent of change. I will say Lepen>Trump even because she is more pure in her understanding and struggle against international policies that have plagued the world. Her father was even better but she has polished her message a little so she can expand the base. Her father unfortunately wouldnt have had a chance even now because he was successfully vilified for far too long.

The only way any meaningful change will happen is if Lepen is elected.

I don't think France will last another 5 years if it elects Hollande or any other Socialist Party president. It is unlikely that the Socialists will win the election.

So you would rather have Juppe over Sarkozy? Juppe is a centrist, the definition of what the alt-right call a 'cuckservative'. Sarkozy has become more right-wing, and him being the candidate for the republicans will actually help Le Pen.

I assume you are aware of the tactic in France where if the second round of any election is between the Front National and either the Socialists or Republicans, supporters of the 2 main parties will vote against the Front National? Socialist voters will be much more inclined to vote for Juppe than Sarkozy, so if Sarkozy were the nominee, it could potentially open the door for Le Pen.

Oh i wasnt referring to the calculations of who its better to have as nominee which would best serve Lepen. Youre absolutely right about that.

I was directly talking about who i would rather have as President and wasnt factoring in the tactical steps.

[Beirut]

Pro russian candidate won the Bulgaria presidential elections.

[britchard]

(11-13-2016 05:59 PM)Beirut Wrote:  

Pro russian candidate won the Bulgaria presidential elections.

Smack in the face for the EU...

[Matsufubu]

Sarkozy is a NWO shill.

[britchard]

First round of voting for the republican presidential candidate is today. Could be very close, as only the top 2 go through, and the more idealistic candidates could take votes off the more likely candidates.

Edit: This is for the upcoming french presidential election.

[budoslavic]

Angela Merkel to seek 4th term as German Chancellor? Geez...she's already sailing Germany off the cliff.

[britchard]

I have serious doubts about Germany if she manages to be re-elected.

Elsewhere, Fillon won the first round of French Republican primaries pretty easily. He should also win the second round, as a lot more Sarkozy votes will go to him than to Juppe.

Fillon being the nominee is a win/win situation. It gives Le Pen a better chance of winning, and also if it is Fillon who becomes President, it's much better than the other alternatives. Very economically conservative, not sure about socially though?

[britchard]

Looks like Her Majesty is going to be inviting the Donald for a state visit. I really want to see a picture of him and the Queen eating dinner together, with a pepe edited on to his grinning face.

He can't fuck up as badly as Obama did when he came over. The fool thought any moment of silence was inviting him to give a speech- so he ended up trying to give a toast during our national anthem. Can't see Melania Trump saying 'All that for a damn Queen' after either, a la Michelle Obama.

Meanwhile in Turkey: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38041510
If you don't want to click the BBC link, here's the summary: If a man convicted of sexually assaulting a minor then gets married to the minor, he is cleared of all charges.

[void]

December is going to be hot, and the markets already have a big spread for Italian state loans.
Italy may be on the way to exit the €, after the referendum fails and ANY! opposition party get's into power.
The €-zone and Europe is rapidly disintegrating, if all elections/votes/referendums this year turn to the nationalistic/patriotic side.

Brexit was probably the start of this upcoming chain reaction. And the big irony after all is, Merkel's open floodgates certainly played a role for the British voters to get the fuck out of the EU.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/...f2a9b11daa
https://www.ft.com/content/7ea6837a-ad83...378e4fef24

[budoslavic]

Quote:

Now Czech Republic goes against EU and backs Donald Trump’s ‘views on migration’

THE Czech Republic has shown its backing for US President-elect Donald Trump’s views on migration as the list of countries supporting the Republican continues to grow.

Czech president Miloš Zeman openly supported Trump during his election campaign and also backed his fight against the evil Islamic State.

After the vote he said: "I agree with his views on migration and the fight against Islamic terrorism".

Zeman added that he hoped Ivana Trump - the President-elect's first wife - would become the US ambassador to the Czech Republic after she expressed an interest in the post earlier this month.

Tomáš Prouza, the state secretary for European affairs at the Czech Prime Minister’s Office, said: "She would definitely reach out to people easily and could be very good in public diplomacy.

“I don’t expect anyone to protest.”

Czech Finance Minister, Andrej Babiš, who like Trump is a billionaire, said he believed the President-elect's policies could help to end Europe's migrant crisis - although he also claimed he hoped Trump "would respect the Nato alliance" in a Facebook post.

It comes after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbàn showed support for the new US leader, using similar rhetoric to Trump to oppose the arrival of Muslim migrants.

Following Trump's landmark win, Orbàn said: “We are living in the days where what we call liberal non-democracy — in which we lived for the past 20 years — ends, and we can return to real democracy.”

Meanwhile, Poland - who share a border with the Czech Republic and Russia - has more concerns about Trump's presidency.

Trump's wavering commitment to Nato combined with Russia's increasing military capabilities leaves Poland in a potentially vulnerable position.

The country remains in this difficult position until Trump sheds more light on his foreign policy for Europe.

However, in a campaign speech in Chicago, Trump's desire to maintain good relations with Poland will undoubtedly appease some concerns.

Trump said: “We’re committed to a strong Poland and a strong Eastern Europe as a bulwark for security and liberty.”

EU:

[britchard]

The not-paying-up NATO members make my blood boil. I think the only countries that pay the required amount (or more) are Greece, Poland, Estonia, the UK and obviously the US. And I'm not even an American, I can only imagine how they feel about it.

I don't think an EU army would get very far...

[HighSpeed_LowDrag]

(11-13-2016 06:17 AM)Vicious Wrote:  

I like this thread so far and it has real promise if "LOL EU" type posts are kept out.

As mentioned there are some very interesting and impactful elections coming up in Europe in the close future. Unlike the US Europe has had plenty of instances where parties with a focus on nationalism has made headway. And the coming years will likely prove a decisive moment with the opportunity for a wide steo to the right for several countries governments.

I am badly hoping that the European countries do not descend into economic isolationism however like what Trump has telegraphed for the US. This has never worked in the history of the continent.

A shortlist of upcoming important elections:

December 4 - Italian constitutional referendum (we need a NO victory)
December 4 - Austrian presidential election re-run

2017

March 15 - Netherlands general election
April 23 - French presidential election
May 7 - French presidential run-off (TBD)
August/October - German federal election

[sterling_archer]

I am not familiar with Italian referendum next week. What is it about and what is desirable income?

[britchard]

(11-26-2016 12:04 PM)sterling_archer Wrote:  

I am not familiar with Italian referendum next week. What is it about and what is desirable income?

It's about whether to reform the constitution so that the Senate's power is reduced, making it easier to pass bills through the Chamber. The 'yes' vote is to approve the reform, the 'no' vote is to keep it how it is.

However it seems that the actual issue the referendum is about is of secondary importance. A 'no' vote is a protest vote against the establishment (which means against the EU and liberal elite types).

A 'no' victory will cause the current prime minister to resign, which would trigger new elections and potentially referendums on Italy using the Euro or even membership of the EU.

[sterling_archer]

Thanks for clarifying.

[britchard]

^Extra detail I forgot to add, the referendum also proposes changes to reduce the power of regional governments, giving the regions less control over their own affairs. Similar to how democrats like to reduce the power that states have.

Today is the day of voting to decide who is the Republican nominee for the presidential election in France. A Fillon win is the best result today, as it would mean Le Pen is more likely to win and Fillon himself isn't a bad option, provided he isn't just talk.

[sterling_archer]

Le Pen and Fillon seem very similar on paper to me. Both are in the right spectrum.

[HighSpeed_LowDrag]

(11-27-2016 12:50 PM)sterling_archer Wrote:  

Le Pen and Fillon seem very similar on paper to me. Both are in the right spectrum.

True, but Le Pen is better because she promises a French referendum on leaving the EU/euro if she is elected.

[Vicious]

Italy could however badly need to rework their constitution, I don't recall the exact criteria but dissolving the government by vote is far too easy. How many changed/reformed governments have they been through so far this millennium? 10? 15?

I can't imagine what the administrative costs associated with just change over time for all these events are.