First of all, let me explain the importance of this thread.
The election is coming up on 31 March 2019 with at second and final round on 21 April 2019.
There are 2 candidates that have a realistic shot- Poroshenko and Tymoshenko.
If Poroshenko wins, the status quo remains (slow IMF mandated reforms, continued IMF loans).
If Tymoshenko wins, we are likely to see major change. For anyone following the rhetoric and past history, her presidency means lower chances for IMF loans as she clearly rejects IMF mandated reforms.
You can see the way Western politicians view her by reading the Atlantic council's articles on her. (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ukraine)
Without IMF loans, the other option would be Russian/Chinese loans and/or a major crisis.
If the global economy enters a recession or period of slowed growth ("OECD lowers global growth forecast for 2019"), this combined with the political turmoil can lead to significant changes for Ukraine. This is likely to have significant effects on Europe as a whole as well as other countries.
What do people here predict?
A currency crisis? Increased armed conflict? Status quo?
Latest polls here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_po...tion,_2019
Let's try and keep things civil and relatively objective.
The election is coming up on 31 March 2019 with at second and final round on 21 April 2019.
There are 2 candidates that have a realistic shot- Poroshenko and Tymoshenko.
If Poroshenko wins, the status quo remains (slow IMF mandated reforms, continued IMF loans).
If Tymoshenko wins, we are likely to see major change. For anyone following the rhetoric and past history, her presidency means lower chances for IMF loans as she clearly rejects IMF mandated reforms.
You can see the way Western politicians view her by reading the Atlantic council's articles on her. (http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/ukraine)
Without IMF loans, the other option would be Russian/Chinese loans and/or a major crisis.
If the global economy enters a recession or period of slowed growth ("OECD lowers global growth forecast for 2019"), this combined with the political turmoil can lead to significant changes for Ukraine. This is likely to have significant effects on Europe as a whole as well as other countries.
What do people here predict?
A currency crisis? Increased armed conflict? Status quo?
Latest polls here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_po...tion,_2019
Let's try and keep things civil and relatively objective.
A man should never be ashamed to own that he is wrong, which is but saying in other words that he is wiser today than he was yesterday.
-Alexander Pope