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12-26-2014, 03:12 PM
I still think oil and gas will have a huge drop. I've stayed out so far.
This has happened before (about 25 years ago). Oil operators went bankrupt, oil dropped to $18/barrel (inflation adjusted to about $40/barrel). Oil majors swooped in and cleaned up shop.
I've bought into ARCP and will continue to hold. I believe FBI and DOJ made a settlement with management regarding the fraud settlement (key condition was to forfeit severance and options and leave company). This has also happened before with Salomon brothers in their Treasury bond scandal.
WIA- For most of men, our time being masters of our own fate, kings in our own castles is short. Even those of us in the game will eventually succumb to ease of servitude rather than deal with the malaise of solitude
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12-26-2014, 04:52 PM
Can anyone recommend a way to practice investing without losing real money?
Would penny stocks be a good start ? Where would one go to try and learn of such a thing?
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12-26-2014, 07:55 PM
Chinese, ECB and BOJ will keep global QE gravy train chugging along nicely. Main beneficiary USA...UUP & SPx
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12-27-2014, 07:19 PM
Interested in people's thoughts on 3x-ETF's for trading. Direxion Shares and Ultra ProShares are the big names, they are ETF's that use leverage up front to amplify daily returns or losses.
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12-30-2014, 08:59 PM
If any of you guys have margin accounts and have some cash to burn i suggest the widowmaker spread.
Buy the March NG contract and sell the April NG contract. It is priced for a very mild winter. If there is the slightest bit of freezing this spread will blow out. It has gotten to the point right now that the risk reward is optimal.
Disclaimer: Obviously with the nickname the widowmaker you understand that this spread could blow up your entire account if you dont understand how futures move.
Full disclosure i put this spread on 2 days ago at 0.066 and it is now trading at 0.050.
I am already sitting on $2000 in loses. As you can see from the chart it has had some wild moves already
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12-30-2014, 09:04 PM
" I'M NOT A CHRONIC CUNT LICKER "
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12-30-2014, 09:16 PM
Or the spread i play all the time that is less volatile and yields great profit is the Platinum/Gold spread
Buy 2 April PL contract and sell 1 GC April contract.
I like to buy the spread under $20.00. As of tonight it is hovering around that mark right now.
I have 10 of these going right now and my cost is around $10.00, so i am sitting on some pretty good profit. once it starts moving up past $30 i will unwind my position every $5 increments
" I'M NOT A CHRONIC CUNT LICKER "
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12-30-2014, 09:16 PM
" I'M NOT A CHRONIC CUNT LICKER "
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01-02-2015, 09:46 PM
For 2015, I'm interested to try the stock market. But I don't know shit except basic things. Any reading that would be good for a beginner ?
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01-02-2015, 09:52 PM
I have a hunch that there will be a major correction sometime this year. S&P 500 is getting more and more expensive, something has to give.
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01-03-2015, 04:07 AM
I use wikinvest. You input your brokerage account and it tracks it w/fees, dividends, gains, etc
WIA- For most of men, our time being masters of our own fate, kings in our own castles is short. Even those of us in the game will eventually succumb to ease of servitude rather than deal with the malaise of solitude
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01-03-2015, 12:29 PM
Most people would probably best to just buy index funds (i.e. vanguard). Canadians who are nearer to retirement age may want to look into Canadian Controlled Corporation Dividend Taxation which can be very favourable if it's your main source of income.
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01-03-2015, 01:46 PM
Twitter and Blackberry could be good acquisition targets for 2015. I really like strategic companies with depressed prices up to the point that it looks like the company would go bankrupt.
If Twitter drops below a $15 billion valuation they are going to be a target by Google or Microsoft. I will buy a lot at that price. Blackberry is a buy around the $5 billion range. John Chen has a good track record with what he did with Sybase, very good fit for CEO unlike some other various tech companies out there.
2015 will be a wild card for everything else. The capital flight from China, Europe, and South America is helping keep the dollar strong and push up the high end of the real estate market. Miami back and above pre-crash levels is just scary to me. If those capital movements slow down or reverse we could see a 20-50% correction within the next 24 months no matter what move the Fed makes.
For long term investors high quality oil companies will probably do fine over the next 10 years. If you want to bet hard against the dollar being strong by 2025, oil is going to be one of the first things that starts moving up.
I am also keeping an eye on Russian companies but that is a very big wildcard which has 100% downside risk. Something like Yandex getting super cheap may be worth the risk.
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01-03-2015, 10:54 PM
@babelfish- whats your thoughts on BP with their Russia exposure?
I am still long WU and ARCP (distressed REIT play backed by largest triple-net commercial lease operator) for 2015.
WIA- For most of men, our time being masters of our own fate, kings in our own castles is short. Even those of us in the game will eventually succumb to ease of servitude rather than deal with the malaise of solitude
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01-03-2015, 11:51 PM
Just signed up, I'll get access after the first 408,843 do!
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01-04-2015, 03:15 AM
god dammit, I want to bet on student loans! I hope the day comes soon.
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01-04-2015, 04:10 AM
I'm really young and looking to start investing in stocks. Right now I'm thinking 40-50% into Vanguard S&P, 30% into blue-chip companies, and 20% into companies that I have a good hunch about. I only have about $1000 to invest, should I be more risky? I don't have much to lose.
What is the best discount broker for me to use? Right now Tradeking seems like the best option.
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