[Easy_C]

Now I'm a bit curious what you do for a living. That's about as good a summary as can be expected in that amount of space.

[Tornado]

What do you guys think about UWTI?

[kufu]

(01-08-2015 10:37 AM)Home Depot Wrote:  

You are referring to the spread between the FED funds rate and 10 years bond interest rates. 0% vs 2.5%; and how that differential will manifest itself in bond asset devaluation when Yellen starts raising interest rates.

Expected Fed fund rake hike target for 2015 is 1.00%, for 2016 is 2.25%... and long term, they want to hit 4% for the FED Fund rate. Which means a 10 year bond interest rate increase from 2.5% to 3.50%(for 2015) to 4.75%(for 2016).... and when the fed fund target of 4% is eventually hit, this will result in 10 year bond interest rate of 6.50%.
[This is also why those on this thread recommending buying current CD rates are mistaken. The interest rate is designed to go higher starting from 2015, why then would you want to be locked into a 5 to 10 year CD yielding shit like 2% currently? why not wait 2 to 4 years in? say in 2017/2018?]

Perhaps, this paint a clearer picture.

I fully agree that we won't have such a low rates for much longer. I'm trying to think of ways someone could make money if he expects rates to increase in the future. What do you think would be the best bet?

[BIGINJAPAN]

The FED might do a token raise of short term rates of .25 or .50% but that will be it. Rates all around the world are being depressed and signalling deflation and slowing economies... I think we all know they can't stay this low forever but no way can the FED raise rates... Every major economy in the world is slowing or in a recession.... Dont forget the ECB is talking about QE, BOJ is going crazy with QE, BOE is still running a $350 billion QE and China has just started easing lending again and doing another huge stimulus...

How can all these economies be struggling and it not affect the US? At best they dont raise rates for years and at worst they will launch another round of QE.... When you look around the world where are you going to stick your money? The rates in the US are very low on the 10 year and the 30 year but just a couple months ago the spanish and greek 10 year were trading at the US 10y or below... Are you going to give the German government money for 10y below 1%? or the Swiss for less than that? The US looks the most attractive believe it or not... Since the demand will be in US government debt that is going to push rates lower as investors will seek a safe haven coupled with a more attractive rate compared to some of the AAA rated countries... Don't forget the best performing asset in the US in 2014 was not stocks, it was US bonds.... As rates go lower bond prices go up

The only way rates go up in the US is the whole economy blows up and investors start selling dollars... the way the rest of the world is looking I think their attention will be elsewhere than the true state of America.

These are actual quotes coming from the FED and BOJ as i was typing this.

FOMC “has not provided sufficient stimulus to hit its inflation target” Kocherlakota says.... Meaning they arent raising rates

BOJ OFFERS TO BUY 1.18 TLN YEN GOVT DEBT FROM MARKET.

These literally just came across the wire

As for making money on any of this i think you cant be a passive investor... you have to trade through all of this or stay out of the market all together.

Or do what Jim Rickards recommends which is what the Ultra wealthy do: Buy Gold, Art and Land.... All 3 are the key to preserving wealth over hundreds of years

[BIGINJAPAN]

Also I re-entered my long on the EUR.USD.... all the profit I have made on the NZD.USD and AUD.USD has convinced me to go long again... see where this goes

[RockHard]

(01-08-2015 10:37 AM)Home Depot Wrote:  

But overall, your best bet is long USD as much as you can, any bounce in the EUR/USD at monthly chart levels are opportunities to short EUR with more USD. Every break of monthly levels in EURUSD, USD/CHF, USD/HUF, USD/PLN, USD/CZK, USD/SEK, USD/DKK, USD/TRY are good opportunities to short them all using the USD. It is open season on europe's ass.
...
I will not touch leverage ETFs with a 10 feet pole because of their rebalancing. I can get into some ETFs, but here is the caveat emptor: the bond market scenario that i described above will affect even the ETFs(especially, leverage ETFs).
.

I'm a total amateur here so dumb questions coming up:

So for an average retail investor, would an ETF like UUP be a decent investment? It looks like it's had quite a run up already.

Also with yields down it's approaching the point where it'd be worth my while to refi my house. What I hear you saying is that when the Fed starts raising rates, yields should skyrocket which should make mortgage rates go up accordingly, right?

[AntiTrace]

With oil prices this cheap, I'm interested to grabbing some. USO is at the lowest its ever been.

edit - nevermind, just saw you guys already discussed this

[Onto]

Went 50% short in my Pension via SDS on Thursday's rally. Will add the rest if we get up to 2100 S&P or if we start dropping hard from here.

[Tex Pro]

(01-08-2015 08:29 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

The FED might do a token raise of short term rates of .25 or .50% but that will be it.

The Fed is not going to raise rates at least until late 2015 or early 2016. They are going to wait as long as possible to raise rates (regardless of what they may say publicly), and even then they are going to do it slowly.

Jim Rickards explains it well in this clip:

[xeloris]

Solar companies have been beaten down in last 5 months due to the oil drop. However, oil does not impact solar one bit so it has created a bargain. Companies are now trading below 10 PE and profits are going to increase this year. JASO CSIQ JKS TSL FSLR are good picks in the sector. May 2013 - March 2014 - made about 3500% trading solars w/ options. However the downside is i lost about 80% of that in last 5 months. There is a good message board if one is interested in reading up on the sector. search the contrarian investor in google.


Another company EBIX, high short interest ~50% p/e now at 13 (went up over 30% since start of year), buy back plan in place, recipe for a short squeeze. I've currently got 15$ calls out to January 2016, now up about 200%, I'll be selling off when the stock hits about 30.. Current price is about 21.

[BostonBMW]

(01-02-2015 10:35 PM)kufu Wrote:  

(12-25-2014 07:19 PM)BostonBMW Wrote:  

I signed up for Robinhood -- can't wait to get that access.

I'm definitely jumping in the market again in 2015. I made about 14.35% (gross) return in 2014.

Will be watching this thread closely.

How do you guys calculate annualized return? I mean, it's not as simple as dividing your gains by capital invested, as you usually start with some X amount of money, end the year with Y, but in the meantime you likely were sending additional money to your investment account (which was only earning money through part of the year, so the annualized return will be different), perhaps doing some withdrawals etc.
It gets very tricky to track it all and get the accurate annual return rate.
Another factor is, you cash out only part of your investments by end of the year, so much of your gains are "on paper" only...

Fidelity does pretty nice job calculating time-weighted annualized return for 401(k) account, but does not provide this number for individual investments (where you invest in stock/etf/mf etc. on your own) and that's what the most interesting to me.

I use TDAmeritrade/ThinkorSwim Platform. If you request a detailed summary, they will send you an excel report with every transaction. I usually calculate by myself, just to verify their data.

[BostonBMW]

(01-10-2015 10:29 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  

(01-08-2015 08:29 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

The FED might do a token raise of short term rates of .25 or .50% but that will be it.

The Fed is not going to raise rates at least until late 2015 or early 2016. They are going to wait as long as possible to raise rates (regardless of what they may say publicly), and even then they are going to do it slowly.

Jim Rickards explains it well in this clip:

Agreed. Rates may even hold if Japan, EU economies take a further tumble later this year.

Solid explanation from Jim Rickards. I'm concerned about the asset bubble, since I am deep in Real Estate and Equities. I hate this bubblicious economy where someone like me (RE: Buy and Hold. Equities: Value Investor) has to speculate what's next.

[DVY]

Cashed out of BKE at 55.35. I could have waited for a bit longer and gotten another $1-2, but its beyond my idea of fair-value and in an industry I have no desire of holding longterm. Up around 26% including dividends.

Its enough for me

Im looking heavily at

1) Tupperware (TUP)
2) Billiton (BHP/BBL)
3) Hollyfrontier Corp (HFC)
4) Deere (DE)
5) Diaego (DEO)

Theres a couple of other ones that I am interested in but still undecided like chemical company TNH, Verisign, Veririsk, reit SUI.

(12-09-2014 04:22 PM)DVY Wrote:  

Im still holding unto Buckle (BKE), but plans to cash out soon.

They announced a special dividend $2.77- payable Jan 27 (to shareholders of record Jan 15). AND they boosted dividends from 22c to 23c quarterly. If you add that up its basically a 7% dividend yield at today's prices (50-ish).

And they say retail is dead...

I've bought it at 44.85 and let it run sideways and collect dividends for the better part of this year, and finally getting my come-up.

I believe it will run up another 3-8 dollars/share.

My sell-out date will be the around Jan 10-14. Hopefully the stock makes good gains.

[amsdk]

I made some money off the indian stock markets last year - was actually a good year. However its slightly expensive now and I am looking at other
options.

What do you guys think about the greek / russian markets ? Worthwhile to invest in the near future ?

[Easy_C]

(01-10-2015 10:29 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  

(01-08-2015 08:29 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

The FED might do a token raise of short term rates of .25 or .50% but that will be it.

The Fed is not going to raise rates at least until late 2015 or early 2016. They are going to wait as long as possible to raise rates (regardless of what they may say publicly), and even then they are going to do it slowly.

Jim Rickards explains it well in this clip:

Along the right track, but for Jim Rickards.......yeah.

Here's an analysis that is fairly brief but it's from Martin Armstrong who has an outstanding track record for forecasts. Not coincidentally TPTB hate the guy for calling the corruption like it is:

http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/06...confirmed/

[chyamor]

FXCM bites the dust

[Easy_C]

yeah....the Swiss Franc issue is one that I really wish I'd been paying attention to(distracted with grad school apps). It was essentially a "no lose" trade, where by buying CHF you would gain massively if they did remove the peg, but if they didn't the value would remain the same and all you'd lose would be transaction fees.


Something else to keep in mind: there are exactly zero historical examples of a "peg" holding against market forces in the long term. If you can figure out which side the pressure is building(watch capital flows) then it's a guaranteed profitable trade.

[Richiavelli]

Best trade of 2014 for me was Target after the hack. Sadly, I did not buy nearly enough - it's up 24% since the dive.

Currently I'm holding a large chunk of PML (leveraged muni bonds) as a hedge against a potential stock market dive. Haven't found anything good as of now, going to continue to dollar cost average the S+P 500 until I find something.

[Richiavelli]

(01-09-2015 10:48 AM)RockHard Wrote:  

(01-08-2015 10:37 AM)Home Depot Wrote:  

But overall, your best bet is long USD as much as you can, any bounce in the EUR/USD at monthly chart levels are opportunities to short EUR with more USD. Every break of monthly levels in EURUSD, USD/CHF, USD/HUF, USD/PLN, USD/CZK, USD/SEK, USD/DKK, USD/TRY are good opportunities to short them all using the USD. It is open season on europe's ass.
...
I will not touch leverage ETFs with a 10 feet pole because of their rebalancing. I can get into some ETFs, but here is the caveat emptor: the bond market scenario that i described above will affect even the ETFs(especially, leverage ETFs).
.

I'm a total amateur here so dumb questions coming up:

So for an average retail investor, would an ETF like UUP be a decent investment? It looks like it's had quite a run up already.

Also with yields down it's approaching the point where it'd be worth my while to refi my house. What I hear you saying is that when the Fed starts raising rates, yields should skyrocket which should make mortgage rates go up accordingly, right?

USD has performed well over some time. FYI if you are an amateur, I would highly advise against trading currency. Go ahead and do it if you have a fuck around fund, but it sounds like you need to do some research and understand how currency trades work.

You could refi, what rate are you paying now vs. what could you potentially get? No point in a refi if you are close to paying off the mortgage. Tax deductions are not as much of a benefit as a paid off home.

FYI, anyone see that swiss bank bomb? Swissnado destroying hedge funds and Goldman top trade muppets LOL.

[-g-]

Reits are going to be one of the top investment themes this year. Interest rates will continue to stay low which provides opportunities for Reits to leverage up and absorb additional risk. Money Managers wil "chase yield" in these securities because bonds suck and the Fed has sucked the risk premium out of them.

Oil is fucking cheap as hell and will recover a little but not until Q3 2015. Look at what happened in 1986 for clues. it will likely print a 30 handle (37 is my guess) but it will not break 70 this year.

i am up 8% thus far in 2015. I bought CVX as a LT investment on Friday. GLTA

[Steve9]

Im hoping that in 2015 volatility will increase and provide great entry points into my favourite growth stocks.

In last years Stock Market thread, the first company I mentioned was Sierra Wireless (SWIR) :

(01-01-2014 09:36 PM)Steve9 Wrote:  

An alternative is to find the innovative companies whose sales and profits are rising despite the macro picture.

For example, the "internet of things" or machine-to-machine communications (M2M) will be a huge growth opportunity for the next 5 years

Sierra Wireless is a pure play on M2M and has a third of the global market. It is not reliant on QE for success.

Its stock price increased 200% in 2013 :

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SWIR+...R;range=1y

Sierra (SWIR) stock rose another 94% in 2014. I recently sold half my position and will start investing the proceeds this month.

My first buy for 2015 was Micheal Kors (KORS). I brought a full position on Friday at $66.84.
Oil prices are so low and that will place more money into consumers hands and that will be good for KORS.
They will be releasing their 3rd Quarter report on 5 February and I expect a nice bounce in their share price.

[Steve9]

Brought a full position today in Bank of Internet (BOFI) at $79.62, which is disrupting the industry by aiming to be the most innovative branch-less bank in the USA.

It has a very long runway for growth. Its year-over-year loan growth was 63%.

[DVY]

Bought Tupperware @61.50. Pure currency spec play + 5% of mkt cap share buyback each year + boring stock (stable cashflow, yoy increase in same currency).

Well see it pays off, but I think it has good prospects.

[samsamsam]

Not sure quite where to put this request. But any of you have access or know where I could get analyst reports on the outlook of oil? I need to find price forecasts on oil with dates.

If you could PM or post something here that would be much appreciated.

I have been able to find tidbits in articles like this one from zacks but it would be nice to get my hands on the reports.

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/159423/c...hed-bottom

Thanks so much.

SSS

[monster]

(01-22-2015 02:45 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Not sure quite where to put this request. But any of you have access or know where I could get analyst reports on the outlook of oil? I need to find price forecasts on oil with dates.

If you could PM or post something here that would be much appreciated.

I have been able to find tidbits in articles like this one from zacks but it would be nice to get my hands on the reports.

http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/159423/c...hed-bottom

Thanks so much.

SSS

For the professional sell-side reports you need to pay for them.
Sometimes you can google hack them by using terms like "filetypeDF oil report"