[Omad]

(12-11-2015 07:18 PM)AWright Wrote:  

Do you think USO which basically follows the price of oil would be a good investment? Oil won't be down this low forever.

No one knows what oil is going to do, if you think oil is going up then get long, you have just as much chance of being right as anyone - it's a fifty fifty bet. I'm long oil at the moment so I'm with you!

As jj90 mentioned USO might not be the best vehicle due to the drag caused by the futures being in contango. In saying that I don't think it's that bad as long as you are continually reducing cost basis.

[jj90]

(12-16-2015 09:16 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

i'm not following? i read the post to mean you sunk 50% of your account into 1 stock.

is that not what you meant? So i wanted to know if you are using a stop and at what level did you set it at?

Nope you are right. 50% of my account is in UGAZ. Can't lose more then half LOL*insane laughter.

[Omad]

(12-17-2015 01:38 AM)jj90 Wrote:  

(12-16-2015 09:16 PM)BIGINJAPAN Wrote:  

i'm not following? i read the post to mean you sunk 50% of your account into 1 stock.

is that not what you meant? So i wanted to know if you are using a stop and at what level did you set it at?

Nope you are right. 50% of my account is in UGAZ. Can't lose more then half LOL*insane laughter.

Do you normally use such large position sizing? If not, why did you decide to with this particular trade?

[jj90]

@Omad: Yup I do. I've gone all in on several stocks before. Different risk tolerances and all that.

I either split allocation if I have multiple ideas, or chance of loss of capital is relatively high in a particular equity.

[Fury]

Man, I have taken a beating lately on my vanguard accounts. I have a couple stock market index funds, and S&P 500. I did some reading and discovered there is usually a downtrend leading up to a new year. Anyone else experiencing this? I'm a brand new investor so quite inexperienced at this stuff. I imagine just ride the storm and wait for the upturn?

[Peregrine]

(12-18-2015 05:06 AM)Fury Wrote:  

Man, I have taken a beating lately on my vanguard accounts. I have a couple stock market index funds, and S&P 500. I did some reading and discovered there is usually a downtrend leading up to a new year. Anyone else experiencing this? I'm a brand new investor so quite inexperienced at this stuff. I imagine just ride the storm and wait for the upturn?

Depends on your goals and time horizon.

[Omad]

(12-18-2015 01:18 AM)jj90 Wrote:  

@Omad: Yup I do. I've gone all in on several stocks before. Different risk tolerances and all that.

I either split allocation if I have multiple ideas, or chance of loss of capital is relatively high in a particular equity.

UGAZ is down over 10% now, are you still hanging in there? How long do you normally hang on when they go against you?

I'm long gas also, as well as a bunch of other commodities. At least gold and silver are having a decent day today.

[Fury]

@Peregrine,

Those accounts are just my long term investments. I have a couple of the international index admiral share stock funds so I plan on just sitting on those for a couple decades. I'm not really planning on messing around with short term market investing until I learn a little more about it.

[Peregrine]

(12-19-2015 03:24 AM)Fury Wrote:  

@Peregrine,

Those accounts are just my long term investments. I have a couple of the international index admiral share stock funds so I plan on just sitting on those for a couple decades. I'm not really planning on messing around with short term market investing until I learn a little more about it.

Then don't worry about short term market fluctuations. If you're buy and hold, stick to the "hold" part. The worst thing you could do is sell after a 50% drop only to watch the market rebound to new highs.

[betterasianbrother]

Anyone picking up UWTI? Looks like it's bottoming out if not at least close.

[jj90]

Out UGAZ @ 1.52. 0% breakeven. Gonna look to pick up a few positions in the next few days, leaning towards energy(oil/coal).

[Omad]

@jj90,

Do you think you would have been better off with a smaller position in UGAZ? You could of held on longer, today you would have been up 15%.

I don't use stops, I control my risk with size. I do trade options predominantly so I'm able to increase my probabilities and continually reduce cost basis. With cyclical markets, positions that go against you usually come back, you just need to be able to stay in the position.

[jj90]

@Omad: Absolute portfolio size and asset class does impact position sizing I agree, but that particular trade on UGAZ I didn't need to be thinking about that. By this time I'd expected UGAZ to be over 2, it still could but I didn't like it. Shorting the inverse would likely have been better but oh well. I wasn't looking for 15%, more like 50% on the UGAZ trade.

Last rebalancing for the year: Long CBD NYSE at 10.63, PWT.TO @ 1.32, BXE.TO @ 1.62. Good luck to all. Happy holidays.

[SunW]

(01-01-2016 09:18 AM)SunW Wrote:  

The S&P 500 and Dow ended red for the year and the Nasdaq was up a little, while I beat all of them for the eighth year (out of nine).

Two of my most surprising "beats" of the year were the US Dollar (up from 90 at the beginning of the year) and bitcoin, which I was able to get multiple times at lows this year (even less than $200!). I did not expect those positions to perform as well as they did, I even thought that toward the end of the year, bitcoin would be falling if there was an interest rate increase, which would give me some time to buy more. The interest rate increase told me a lot about who uses bitcoin though, and if we see four of them this year, that will strengthen my theory. With BLC, I've grown my bitcoins as well.

The funniest part of this year was when oil dropped 30-40% and newbies piled in quickly, thinking it was going to rise again. The bear market in oil is doing exactly what it needs to and may continue. If GS' predictions about $20 oil are right, I will absolutely fall over laughing because there will be some buyers who get crushed.

Great 2015. Happy New Year and happy hunting in 2016!

[Omad]

2015 was a great year for traders, one of the best in a long time. I had a very good year! Here's hoping for hi volatility in 2016.

@jj90 - My thoughts are portfolio size are the only thing determining position size, to increase my size based on asset class or me thinking I know something is a sure way to get slapped. Every time I've been hurt or seen someone else hurt it's because of size.

I had a look at CBD, based on the price action I would love to get long but it's to illiquid for me. Ever consider selling a put instead of buying outright? You could of sold the Feb $10 put for around $1.40, takes your breakeven down to $8.60 and gives you a higher probability of profit.

@SunW - Good on you for beating the indexes! Most of the analysts were predicting gains of 10% to 12% for the year, shows you how much anybody knows!

I've been long oil for a couple of months (shows you how much I know!) along with a bunch of other commodities. Most of them have worked out, gold and oil are not quite there yet. I've been able to reduce my cost basis so I'm not doing too bad, actually after the small rally in oil on Thursday I'm not far of BE. As far as GS' call for $20 oil, it's just noise, as I said above no one knows. At the moment the market is saying there's less than 2% probability of oil being at $20 in Dec, about an 8% probability of being at $60.

Hope everyone had a good 2015, bring on a volatile 2016! Good luck trading!

[BostonBMW]

I'm down 15.4% in my play portfolio. Glad I don't need access to those funds yet.

[username]

Chinese stock market dropped 7% today and forced them to halt trading.

[Onto]

China is fucked. Their decision 6 months ago to ban major shareholders from selling will probably be the nail in the coffin.

Why on earth would the govt want to trap and thus impoverish the very class of people who are capable of significantly investing in it and drive growth?

Now those trapped get to see their wealth evaporate even more this week before their moratorium is lifted. What will they do come next week when finally allowed to sell after 6 months?

[jj90]

Do we wanna rollover into an official 2016 thread?

[chyamor]

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