[Deluge]

(12-15-2014 08:29 AM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

(12-15-2014 06:07 AM)malakaix Wrote:  

Some sources are suggesting they escaped: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...ydney.html

Daily Mail Wrote:

It is understood the hostages escaped from the cafe, rather than being released by their captor. One former male hostage has been taken to nearby St Vincent's Hospital, in Sydney's inner suburbs, and is being treated for a pre-existing condition.
The gunman flew into a rage when he realised some of his captives had escaped.

'The gunman could be seen from here getting extremely agitated, shouting at remaining hostages,' tweeted journalist Chris Reason, who has a direct line of sight into the cafe from the Seven Network newsroom directly opposite and inside the police cordon.
The light inside the building has gone off tonight, Mr Reason said, but police would not reveal whether it was a law enforcement or hostage-taker tactic.

Wait wait wait...there is a direct line of sight into the cafe where they can see the lone hostage taker? Why has a sniper not just dropped this guy? Maybe I've seen too many movies....

He's got hostages kneeling by the windows with their hands up against the glass which might make it difficult. And he's claiming to have two "brothers" who've planted bombs around the city.

[T and A Man]

Insta kill is a very fine shot and glass makes it difficult.

They probably also want to scope if he's a loon solo, and not someone with with an accomplice who with detonate half of the Sydney CBD if they see his corpse on live TV

[UnW]

Only heard about this not that long ago (I'm from Australia, now living abroad) its pretty sad to read about this especially since I've been to that cafe in Martin place so many times in the past.

[Horus]

(12-15-2014 08:29 AM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

Wait wait wait...there is a direct line of sight into the cafe where they can see the lone hostage taker? Why has a sniper not just dropped this guy? Maybe I've seen too many movies....

He is wearing a backpack and they are speculating that there could be a bomb inside. I'm not sure how the bomb would be set off if he were shot, but I can understand the need to be cautious.

[Horus]

(12-15-2014 08:44 AM)T and A Man Wrote:  

Insta kill is a very fine shot and glass makes it difficult.

They probably also want to scope if he's a loon solo, and not someone with with an accomplice who with detonate half of the Sydney CBD if they see his corpse on live TV

How does the glass make it difficult?

[iknowexactly]

(12-15-2014 08:59 AM)Horus Wrote:  

(12-15-2014 08:29 AM)Dr. Howard Wrote:  

Wait wait wait...there is a direct line of sight into the cafe where they can see the lone hostage taker? Why has a sniper not just dropped this guy? Maybe I've seen too many movies....

He is wearing a backpack and they are speculating that there could be a bomb inside. I'm not sure how the bomb would be set off if he were shot, but I can understand the need to be cautious.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_man%27s_switch

Historically I think the sick fucks that set off bombs in public places just do it rather than rant about it, I'm 55-45 he's just going to get sick of it and give up.

I guess one theory about delaying with hostage situations is that the longer he's there the more he'll see the people as fellow humans, unless he's full on psychotic, and be less likely to blow himself up.

I haven't looked at his history but I think the " 2 brothers with bombs is BS. He'd just be setting them up to be caught if it was true because there would be records of him messaging or meeting them.

[Deluge]

They've identified the gunman as 50 year old "Man Monis", who is from Iran and claims to be a Sheikh although he isn't actually. He's currently on bail for being an accessory to the murder for his ex-wife, and a sexual assault. I heard the news say 40 sexual assault charges but I'm not sure if I misheard.

I'm very surprised he's Iranian, there aren't that many of them in Australia and among those who are very few are religious. Plus most Iranians are Shi'a and would never support ISIS let alone carry out an ISIS inspired attack.

Quote:

"Haron claimed he was an expert in "astrology, numerology, meditation and black magic" services.

I thought some of those things would be sacrilege in Islam, especially "black magic". That plus his rap sheet and calling himself a Sheikh, I wonder if he's actually mentally ill and not just a jihadi.

[lskdfjldsf]

(12-15-2014 09:01 AM)Horus Wrote:  

How does the glass make it difficult?

Ballistics are a precise science. Long-ranged shots involve careful calculations, for example wind speed, humidity, temperature, gravity, and even the rotation of the earth as the bullet is in the air. Glass, or basically anything other than air (which requires enough calculation already) can send a spinning bullet in any direction.

In a hostage situation, a missed shot can set off a chain reaction where all hostages are killed, bombs are blown up, etc. so it's generally only advised if it's a single hostage taker without a coordinated plan.

EDIT: This guy is Iranian? Very surprised. Shiites are being killed by ISIS and the Iranians themselves are attacking them. Shiites are about 20% of the world Muslim population and are kind of like Catholics, where religious orders are given by a few people up top (the Ayatollah) and the rest follow. Sunnis practice Islam literally and try to live as Mohammed did, so warfare, sex slaves, etc. are more common. Two vastly different strains.

[JJ Roberts]

From his wikipedia page

"Hate mail" campaign

Haron is notable for the campaign undertaken by him and his colleague, Amirah Droudis, protesting the presence of Australian troops in Afghanistan, which takes the form of letters sent to the families of fallen soldiers in which he denigrates the soldiers as murderers,[2] and urged the soldiers' families to petition the government to remove its troops from Afghanistan. The letters were sent to the families of deceased Australian Soldiers.As per Justice Heydon of the High Court, the letters compared " the (deceased soldier) son to a pig and to a dirty animal. It calls the son's body "contaminated". It refers to it as "the dirty body of a pig". It describes Hitler as not inferior to the son in moral merit."[3] Haron was arrested on charges of "using a postal or similar service to menace, harass or cause offence".[4]

On 10 November 2009 Haron appeared in court and claimed through his lawyers to be a peace activist. He later chained himself to the courthouse in protest over the charges.[5] Haron was subsequently barred by the courts from expanding his protest to include letters to UK soldiers' families.[6]

In December 2011, Haron appeared before the Court of Criminal Appeal in Sydney arguing that the charges against him were invalid because they infringed on his implied constitutional freedom of political communication, but the three-judge panel unanimously dismissed his case.[7]

Upon further appeal to the High Court of Australia, the six-judge panel split 3-3 over the issue.[8] Although the High Court of Australia normally comprises seven judges, one seat was vacant and as yet unfilled at the time Haron's case appeared before the court. Failing to achieve a majority vote in Haron's favour, the lower court's unanimous decision was left to stand.[9]
Murder case

On 15 November 2013, Haron was charged by NSW Police with being an accessory before and after the fact to the murder of Noleen Hayson Pal, allegedly stabbed and set alight in a Werrington apartment stairwell on 21 April 2013. His partner Amirah Droudis, was formally charged with Pal's murder.[10] Pal was Haron's ex-wife.

On 12 December 2013, Haron and Amirah were given bail at Penrith Local Court. Magistrate Darryl Pearce said there wew significant flaws in the Crown's case against the pair. "It is a weak case'" he said.[11] Prosecutor Brian Royce said Monis' claims the Iranian Secret Police and ASIO were trying to frame him for the murder was fanciful. Magistrate Pearce said all theories needed to be examined.[12]

On 22 January 2014, Haron told magistrate Joan Baptie that he was representing himself and proceeded to talk about documents ASIO has on him that he wanted to see. He told the court he has been charged in connection to the murder of his ex-wife because ASIO is conspiring against him to have him jailed. But Magistrate Baptie told him she cannot order ASIO to release documents about him. Haron stood outside the Parramatta Local Court wearing chains and holding a sign claiming he has been tortured in jail. He said: "This is not a criminal case. This is a political case."[13]
Sexual assault case

On 14 March 2014, Haron was arrested and charged with sexually and indecently assaulting a young woman who went to his consultancy in Wentworthville, New South Wales for "spiritual healing", after seeing an advertisement in a local newspaper. Haron claimed he was an expert in "astrology, numerology, meditation and black magic" services.[14]

[Deluge]

I just heard the ABC say again he has 40 sexual assault charges currently pending that he was in court for last week. He is also currently on bail for accessory to the murder of his ex-wife. They also said he had a really bad time in prison involving "excrement", I'm assuming from other inmates...

This guy might've felt he had nothing to lose considering his rap sheet.

[Snowplow]

(12-15-2014 09:06 AM)Deluge Wrote:  



I thought some of those things would be sacrilege in Islam, especially "black magic". That plus his rap sheet and calling himself a Sheikh, I wonder if he's actually mentally ill and not just a jihadi.

Does anyone think he looks like a middle eastern Bubbles?

[lskdfjldsf]

(12-15-2014 09:22 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

I just heard the ABC say again he has 40 sexual assault charges currently pending that he was in court for last week. He is also currently on bail for accessory to the murder of his ex-wife. They also said he had a really bad time in prison involving "excrement", I'm assuming from other inmates...

This guy might've felt he had nothing to lose considering his rap sheet.

For fucks sake, does refugee status automatically give you diplomatic immunity? Can refugees get away with anything?
I'm trying to imagine a situation where I could do those things in Germany and not get deported.

[Horus]

(12-15-2014 09:30 AM)Blick Mang Wrote:  

For fucks sake, does refugee status automatically give you diplomatic immunity? Can refugees get away with anything?
I'm trying to imagine a situation where I could do those things in Germany and not get deported.

Welcome to the Anglo world my friend, where guilt is the new white man's burden.

[kosko]

Is it 1987 when Saddam was dropping bombs on Iran? On what grounds can a Irannian seek assylum on the grounds of refugee status in this modern day? This dude isn't from broken Somalia. This isn't the UK who will let anybody with a pulse in.

The man is of at least a resident. I am not 100% familair with Australia intake laws but it would seem they would model Canada and likely be even more stringent.

The fact he is Irannian makes me suspicious.

When dudes start hyping up bombs I never believe it. Look at the history of mass bombings. Making a damage level bomb in 2014 is almost impossible, key ingredients that are needed to get the yeild to do any significant damage are tracked and put in database. Its nearly impossible to build a bomb that can do wide spread damage without "assistance".

So either the bombs are a lie and diversion to toss others over the boat or he is controlled for larger policy motives to be persued.

[Deluge]

(12-15-2014 09:30 AM)Blick Mang Wrote:  

(12-15-2014 09:22 AM)Deluge Wrote:  

I just heard the ABC say again he has 40 sexual assault charges currently pending that he was in court for last week. He is also currently on bail for accessory to the murder of his ex-wife. They also said he had a really bad time in prison involving "excrement", I'm assuming from other inmates...

This guy might've felt he had nothing to lose considering his rap sheet.

For fucks sake, does refugee status automatically give you diplomatic immunity? Can refugees get away with anything?
I'm trying to imagine a situation where I could do those things in Germany and not get deported.

I was thinking that too, he came here on "political asylum" 18 years ago, so by now he's probably a citizen.

(12-15-2014 09:41 AM)kosko Wrote:  

Is it 1987 when Saddam was dropping bombs on Iran? On what grounds can a Irannian seek assylum on the grounds of refugee status in this modern day? This dude isn't from broken Somalia. This isn't the UK who will let anybody with a pulse in.

The man is of at least a resident. I am not 100% familair with Australia intake laws but it would seem they would model Canada and likely be even more stringent.

The fact he is Irannian makes me suspicious.

I was thinking that too. Australia is a very strict country to get into, which is why immigration here on the whole has worked so well compared to almost all other Western countries. This man has been a political activist here, perhaps he was back in Iran too, and a Sunni activist in a Shi'a country at that. Still, if that's the case it should've been Jordan (which houses millions of Sunni Palestinian refugees) or Pakistan (which houses millions of Afghans) etc. who ideally should have taken him in. Whatever it was you can't just bullshit your way into Australia like you might be able to in Europe or America.

[Saweeep]

Everything i'm reading here makes me think he's mentally ill more than a jihadist.

(well more mentally ill than I consider any religious person).

[iknowexactly]

Speculation follows. This is a fictional fantasy criminal analysis workup which is not based on any contact with a real individual. It is not to be used for legal or professional purposes. It is garbage. Do not take it seriously. Any similarity to real persons alive or deceased is purely coincidental.

This profoundly troubled 50 YO individual of Iranian origin has left a trail of havoc in his life including a dead tortured wife, possibly apparently killed by a new female companion, and a nationally disruptive hostage crisis involving bomb threats.

He currently is holding hostages and it is reasonable to try to envision how his obvious mental health problems may impact the victims of his criminal behavior.

The most worrisome factor in his current rampage is whether there are significant mood disorder elements overlaid on his severe personality disorder.

A provisional Axis II diagnosis might be Personality disorder , Mixed, Severe, with Antisocial, Narcissistic, and Histrionic traits.

Possible worsening bipolar II disorder may be placing him in an intensely dysphoric mixed state featuring both agitation and depressive feelings, the cause of which he will perceive in a distorted way as due to the "threatening and scheming" cultural milieu in which he lives.

His legal history indicates he is a classic practitioner of taking a "victim stance" as chronic criminals do, and attributing his own violent and brutal actions to being "forced" by others to act out.

If he is in an intense dyphoria due to Axis I mood dysregulation, the "I can't stand it" quality of that state may combine with his grandiose perception of his own "cause" to drive him to do even more damage than he already has, and perhaps set off a bomb or other violent act.

If, on the other hand, his actions are primarily due to his severely inflated self-evaluation (narcissism) combined with a disregard of the effects of his actions on others, there is hope that his grandiosity may protect those around him from his infantile rage.

He maybe, hopefully, be too narcissistic to kill himself.

Above is fictional, non-professional , speculative opinion. No contact with the individual has been made. The above is garbage. Any similarity to to real individuals, living or dead, is purely coincidental.

[Saweeep]

Hang on...you can get bail for being an accessory to murder? I didn't think even us Brits were that lenient!

[Deluge]

The 40 sexual assault charges all seem to stem from his "spiritual healing" practice... He's been convicted before for sending offensive letters to the families of deceased veterans.

Edit: More hostages came out seconds ago.

[iknowexactly]

(12-15-2014 09:54 AM)CrashBangWallop Wrote:  

Hang on...you can get bail for being an accessory to murder? I didn't think even us Brits were that lenient!

You would not believe the shit you have to do before they really give you hard time, at least in the USA.

I've seen rap sheets over 30 pages long, with about 10 crimes per page.

The average number of pretty serious things Ive seen fucked up juvies do before they get the 5-10 year sentence they deserve at 23?

Maybe
two armed robberies,
possession of a gun after felony conviction,
3-4 stolen cars...
an aggravated assault

then they finally get a 5 years sentence, after all that.

Or they're in for murder with 25-life.

[Deluge]

Five hostages escaped in the last few minutes. SWAT team stormed the cafe. Lots of banging noises, looks like flash bangs being used. Not sure if the gunman started it or the police did, everything happened real fast.

Edit:

Journalists saying there was a firefight. People being taken in stretchers, it looked like the police were trying to do CPR/revive someone on the street outside...

[slubu]

Damn missed this. Any footage of the swarming anywhere?

[Deluge]

(12-15-2014 10:36 AM)slubu Wrote:  

Damn missed this. Any footage of the swarming anywhere?

I missed most of it too.

They just replayed some of the footage. This is pretty interesting. Hostages were leaving in the minutes before this. A bunch of SWAT guys and a couple dudes in shirts and tie's, no body armour or anything or visible weapons, approached the door to the cafe. Then suddenly they went running and shouting back and hide behind cars, then there was 3 or 4 bangs. Then a few minutes later there was a second round of bangs right as I checked back in on the feed and mentioned what I saw earlier about CPR and people being taken away in stretchers.

Edit: They just replayed the second round of noises. 10, maybe 15 seconds of continuous banging, sounded like machine gun fire. You saw what looked like a SWAT slowly guy advancing while firing into the cafe.



Edit 2:
They just played the second round again. The police say the siege is over but haven't said anything else.

[player]

Video of the SWAT raid:

[JJ Roberts]

I used to work at the reserve bank of Australia a copy of blocks away.

Used to stop off to buy coffee every single morning a block or two from work every single morning.