The slow death of California
08-31-2018, 10:21 PM
I'll provide my perspective as a native Californian who has spend extended periods of time in both LA and San Francisco.
In short, California is not "dying", but it is transforming in meaningful ways
California is very unlikely to ever die for these reasons:
-- Two massive industries - tech and entertainment - are centered in the two biggest CA cities, and for better or for worse, these industries are not going away in our lifetimes. If anything, they will likely continue to grow. I definitely think there is some sort of bubble in tech that should pop within the next few years, but it'll be a short lived crash. Companies like Google, Facebook, and Uber will probably remain in our lives for the next century. Meanwhile, the entertainment industry is still doing fine despite the bad press on "Hollywood". In the mid-2000s everybody thought the music industry was going to vanish by 2015, now its booming. The movie/TV industry will reinvent itself too.
-- The weather, beaches, and natural beauty are unmatched in the US. Sure there's niches of people who prefer other things but the majority of the world's population, given a choice, would prefer to live in a Mediterranean climate. This will always serve as a draw to CA. As they say in real estate, you can't build more beachfront property.
-- While mainstream liberal politics here suck and are obnoxious to even watch, I would argue that a lot of it is typical "limousine liberal" bullshit. These politicians are rich fuckers who spew typical liberal rhetoric to entice people to vote for them, but when the problems appear on their turf, they are quick to act on it. Kaotic's post regarding OC and the homeless issue is completely true. Taxes are shitty also without a doubt, but that's also the case in most of the big cities like NYC, Chicago, etc. If wealthy people begin to exit CA en masse, the politicians will figure it out.
Eventually, things will reach a sort of equilibrium. In 2030/2040, I can imagine California being essentially two different states for these reasons:
-- All housing within 10 miles of the coast or in the major cities will be out of reach for everybody who isn't at least middle-upper class, if not only the wealthy. This is already happening now, where previously affordable areas on the coast (Oceanside, Ventura, Venice, etc) have all increased like crazy in price, and it will only get worse. Shady areas in good geographic locations like the Tenderloin in SF, K-Town/Skid Row in LA, Santa Ana/Garden Grove in OC, will become almost completely gentrified. International demand for housing (*ahem* China) will [unfortunately] exacerbate this further.
-- Areas further from the coast as well as the outskirts of the cities will continue to get worse and worse. In some ways, places like Victorville, Palmdale, and Stockton never really recovered from the 2008 recession. Crime has consistently increased in all those areas and they are generally shitty places to live. There is no industry there and fundamentally it doesn't make sense for people to live there and commute 80 miles to the city.
-- As prices keep going up in the cities, all of the "undesirable" people will be forced to either move inland, or to move out of CA in general. Same with the homeless population. I'm not sure about SF (their policies on that front are more liberal), but I can absolutely imagine streets in Victorville will be filled with RVs and tent camps. Some parts of it already are. Many people will leave CA entirely for places like Phoenix, Vegas, and Abq, but some will stay.
There will be two Californias. The first will be on the coast and in the major cities, which will be a sort of wealthy-person utopia with beautiful weather, huge homes, and a shitload of money. The second will be inland, and will look almost like a horror movie set... think a desolate desert with crime, meth, and barely any people. The two will probably never formally split, if only because it is extremely complicated and would result in one state that has 90% of the GDP, but it will basically be two states.
The saddest (nostalgic?) part about this is that California used to be the embodiment of the American dream. You show up to Los Angeles with no money but ambition to chase your dreams, grind it out while living in a shitty apartment (at least in a paradise climate), and eventually you get your break and then buy your house on the beach. If you just want to surf all day, run a surf shop, and then grab a few brews at the local bar on the beach, you could do that too.
That California will probably be gone within 10 years. I doubt it ever comes back.