[DetlefMourning]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-15...erted.html

I think the most likely scenario at this point is that after the plane climbed to 45,000 feet it depressurized and everybody lost consciousness/died. The plane then flew on for hours (most likely over the Indian Ocean) until it ran out of fuel, glided down to the water and crashed.

Either the pilots, or a passenger just as skilled in piloting a commercial airliner, deliberately diverted west off the flight path, turned off the comms systems, took the plane to 45,000 feet to induce hypoxia, then the plane coasted until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the Indian Ocean. It took off with 8 hours worth of fuel on board and the last communication with a satellite came 7.5 hours into the flight, just before it would run out. If the plane had landed, we would know about it by now. There's only so many landing strips in that part of the world that can handle a 777. You'd have to land and then camouflage a huge jumbo jet that several countries are now looking for. It couldn't have flown over Asian landmass without being picked up on military radar by various countries. If hijackers wanted to use the passengers as bargaining chips for ransom, they would have landed the plane and announced their intentions. If terrorists wanted to crash the plane, there would be no ambiguity about what happened to it, and they likely would have taken it down at the point of commandeering it from the crew, instead of flying it for an additional 7 hours before finally taking it down. That's seven hours of crowd control. If terrorists took over the plane for a kamikaze mission, then the wreckage would be in the South China sea where the plane disappeared. But that's not what happened.

That plane is now at the bottom of the Indian Ocean. Whoever did it had a death wish for some reason. The next step will be to thoroughly go over and research the crew and passenger manifest to figure out who is the most likely culprit.

[BlurredLines]

Other than the poor innocents involved this is amazingly entertaining and intriguing.. it could even be a truly epic movie plot. I'm not one for conspiracies etc but this all smells so off it's unbelievable... the Malaysian authorities incompetence/reluctance to the clearly deliberate non disclosure of information from all nations involved.
From a purely selfish point of view i really really hope that the full story comes out just to find out what the hell actually happened. But i fear we'll never know the true events...

If you want what appears to be a proper insight on this head to http://www.twitter.com/flyingwithfish (this guy has so far been way way ahead of the curve with inside info).

[big poppa]

(03-16-2014 12:15 AM)DetlefMourning Wrote:  

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-15...erted.html

I think the most likely scenario at this point is that after the plane climbed to 45,000 feet it depressurized and everybody lost consciousness/died. The plane then flew on for hours (most likely over the Indian Ocean) until it ran out of fuel, glided down to the water and crashed.

Either the pilots, or a passenger just as skilled in piloting a commercial airliner, deliberately diverted west off the flight path, turned off the comms systems, took the plane to 45,000 feet to induce hypoxia, then the plane coasted until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the Indian Ocean. It took off with 8 hours worth of fuel on board and the last communication with a satellite came 7.5 hours into the flight, just before it would run out. If the plane had landed, we would know about it by now. There's only so many landing strips in that part of the world that can handle a 777. You'd have to land and then camouflage a huge jumbo jet that several countries are now looking for. It couldn't have flown over Asian landmass without being picked up on military radar by various countries. If hijackers wanted to use the passengers as bargaining chips for ransom, they would have landed the plane and announced their intentions. If terrorists wanted to crash the plane, there would be no ambiguity about what happened to it, and they likely would have taken it down at the point of commandeering it from the crew, instead of flying it for an additional 7 hours before finally taking it down. That's seven hours of crowd control. If terrorists took over the plane for a kamikaze mission, then the wreckage would be in the South China sea where the plane disappeared. But that's not what happened.

That plane is now at the bottom of the Indian Ocean. Whoever did it had a death wish for some reason. The next step will be to thoroughly go over and research the crew and passenger manifest to figure out who is the most likely culprit.

I read an article that claims climbing to 45,000 feet wouldn't kill the passengers as oxygen supply is controlled from a valve only accessible to ground crew. So unless someone else was in on it then I'm not sure about that.

http://www.news.com.au/travel/travel-upd...6856429922

Quote:

Military radar shows the missing jet climbed to 45,000ft and turned sharply to the west before descending unevenly to 23,000ft on the approach to Penang — on the western side of the Malaysian peninsula. It then climbed back to 35,000ft.
One theory is that this was a deliberate manoeuvre to knock out the passengers and crew.
One Boeing 777-200 pilot, who asked not to be named, said climbing above the plane’s service limit of 43,100ft with a depressurised cabin would have achieved that effect.
But retired United Airlines Captain Gary Brauch, who has nearly 40 years experience on the flight deck including 19 years flying Boeing 777s and Boeing 747s, says the captain would have needed help on the ground.
“My recollection of the aircraft systems is that you cannot shut off the passenger oxygen supply from the cockpit or at all in flight,” he said.
“The shutoff valve is located at an external service panel, accessible only to ground personnel.

Although he does say "my recollection" so maybe it's been a while since he has flown one.

[Avarence]

I have doubts that someone would divert a plane in completely the wrong direction, purposely fly it along waypoints to avoid airspaces, as well as fly it lower to the ground to avoid radar detection, just to take it to 45,000 feet and induce hypoxia to kill everyone. Whoever was at the controls had a specific end location in mind. If hypoxia was the goal, there was no need to ever change course.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

I never thought that I'd actually say this, but this is the one case where attention whoring would actually be much lauded. Whether it would be a suicide note from a pilot, a responsibility claim from terrorists, or a ransom note from hijackers, I would sure appreciate it now. The mystery is killing me. Incredible that a huge plane with hundreds of people can just *poof!* and vanish in this day and age. I'm not much for conspiracy theories, but I'm really prepared to invoke "it was aliens" on this one.

[Peregrine]

http://www.christinenegroni.blogspot.ca/...ssing.html

She argues for the possibility that the plane was not deliberately flown to avoid radar. Worth a read.

[bojangles]

I'm thinking it's Aliens now. fucking aliens

[DetlefMourning]

(03-17-2014 12:08 PM)Peregrine Wrote:  

http://www.christinenegroni.blogspot.ca/...ssing.html

She argues for the possibility that the plane was not deliberately flown to avoid radar. Worth a read.

If the plane accidentally depressurized and everybody on board suffered from hypoxia like the Payne Stewart plane crash, then the transponder and other communications systems would still be functioning because nobody would have had any reason to turn them off?

On the news last night they said that the sharp west turn over the South China Sea was programmed into the flight plan by somebody with knowledge of how 777's work. That would make me think intentional sabotage by the pilot. I'm just wondering how you fly for seven hours without the passengers figuring out what's up. Most of the flight path to Beijing is over mainland China. If the theories are correct, most of the actual flight took place over open ocean. The passengers would know the flight had been diverted and would have nothing to lose in rushing the cockpit.

Or the pilot could have done everything under duress by hijackers. The whole thing is bizarre.

[Bad Hussar]

What a fascinating story. Will be very interesting when/if the details come out.

Before the north/south "arc" of the possible position was released I was convinced that it had most likely simply been flown south into the Indian Ocean on some crazy suicide mission.

In my mind the only possible place it could land without it being detected by the general public is, as per a conspiracy theory above, Diego Garcia. I understand this is a major US airbase, even used by bombers on their missions to bring freedom and good tidings to the people of Iraq and Afghanistan. But why would the US do this? Doesn't make any sense. Also, I don't see Pakistan, or the other -stans within the arc stealing a plane. For what purpose? It's a lot of damn work. Be better just to sell something (oil?) and buy a plane. And without state co-operation how is a private group going to land and hide a 777?

Most likley cause is suicide IMO. Here's a CCTV video of the captain and co-pilot passing through security at KL airport:

What do the body language experts think? Looks feasible to me like that the captain's body language could be described as "depressed". Co-pilot looks normal.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

In the case of the famous Air France Flight 447, it took only two days for the air search to spot wreckage and the oil slick, and the first bodies were recovered by ships after just one week, with over 50 more being found after two weeks. And this was literally in the middle of nowhere, far from any shore or densely populated area. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_France_...ace_search

If there has been absolutely no trace so far, I daresay that the search has become hopeless. The only information we will get about this matter in the future will be mysterious, unconfirmed clues because of being too scattered and damaged from spending a long time in the ocean.

[speakeasy]

I feel 50/50 that the plane has landed somewhere.

[Sourcecode]

Anyone seen the news and Conspiracies that Texas based company FreeScale is behind it

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/1...UB20140310

Quote:

(Reuters) - The loss of 20 key Freescale Semiconductor (FSL.N) employees in the disappearance of a Malaysian airliner on Saturday raises questions about whether the company should have allowed so many of them to board the same plane, but security experts said that at big corporations it's hard to avoid.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airlin...es-1440097

Quote:

Conspiracy theorists have swooped on claims that 20 employees of a semi-conductor manufacturing firm, which develops components for hi-tech weapons systems and aircraft navigation among other things, were on board the missing Malaysian passenger jet.

On board Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 were employees from Freescale Semiconductor, a Texas-based technology firm.

They deal in conductor technology..rfid ect.
not a long short for them to be testing some radar cloaking stuff or whatnot

[Stun]

BBC: "Malaysian police search the pilot's apartment"

I'm not an expert or anything but, I don't think the plane is there.

[AntiTrace]

(03-17-2014 08:10 PM)Sourcecode Wrote:  

Anyone seen the news and Conspiracies that Texas based company FreeScale is behind it

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/1...UB20140310

Quote:

(Reuters) - The loss of 20 key Freescale Semiconductor (FSL.N) employees in the disappearance of a Malaysian airliner on Saturday raises questions about whether the company should have allowed so many of them to board the same plane, but security experts said that at big corporations it's hard to avoid.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/malaysia-airlin...es-1440097

Quote:

Conspiracy theorists have swooped on claims that 20 employees of a semi-conductor manufacturing firm, which develops components for hi-tech weapons systems and aircraft navigation among other things, were on board the missing Malaysian passenger jet.

On board Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 were employees from Freescale Semiconductor, a Texas-based technology firm.

They deal in conductor technology..rfid ect.
not a long short for them to be testing some radar cloaking stuff or whatnot

you really think theyve been testing cloaking stuff on a commercial airline filled with 230 passengers for the past week?

[samsamsam]

Apparently Thailand just released radar info. The response from Thailand makes me think of how a girl would answer.

Quote:

BANGKOK (March 18, 2014) Thailand's military says its radar detected a plane that may have been Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 just minutes after the missing jetliner's communications went down, but said it didn't share the information earlier because it wasn't specifically asked for it.

Thai air force spokesman Montol Suchookorn said Tuesday the plane followed a twisting flight path to the Strait of Malacca, which is where Malaysian radar tracked Flight 370 early March 8.

But Montol said the Thai military wasn't sure whether it detected the same plane.

Asked why it took so long to release the information, Montol said, "Because we did not pay any attention to it."

He said the plane never entered Thai airspace and that Malaysia's initial request for information was not specific.

Hmmm, plane goes missing all over the news, and you won't try a little harder to help because the request wasn't specific enough? Funny people these days.

[Vacancier Permanent]

This looks very fishy. In today's uber advanced technology, it's inconceivable that a 777, not a little Cesena, has vanished into thin air. I have a feeling that some of the countries involved, and I'm referring to Malaysia in particular, but also the other surrounding countries, are not telling us the full pictures and are purposely hiding some key facts. Not to mention China's silence is eery at best.

Could this be that this whole farcical attitude from Malaysia and the other Asian countries of not providing the full details be attributed to this typical Asian face thing and doing everything in order not to lose faith or make one of their allies lose faith?

I honestly can't think of any other plausible explanation!

[Professor Fox]

From airliners.net, a good summary of every angle so far:


Sanity Check - 3/18/2014 15:00Z
There is (will be) a link to this post in my profile under "homepage"

•3/18/2014 15:00Z update since last Sanity Check.
•The facts have not changed much. The a/c has not been found.
•I've tried to be as factually accurate as I can - but I'm not an expert in each system - so if there factual errors please advise.
•Updated section Way-points and Navigation including discussion of ACARS and FMS(Flight Management System).
•Update section on discussion of oxygen and pressurization.
•Added short section on inducing hypoxia in passengers.
•Added a/c information.


First a synopsis
•The ship took off normally and headed on course to Beijing
•The last ACARS transmission was 01:07 local.
•The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia ant hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
•NOTE: Saying "good night" or "so long" or "see you" is very common for hand-offs.
•The transponder stopped transmitting at 1:21 - loss of secondary radar.
•There are reports of a climb to 45K, uneven descent and some changes in altitude. Since this is based on primary radar - altitude data is somewhat uncertain. The last has been reported as 29,500ft but that seems in dispute.
•There are subsequent primary radar returns west over Malacca Strait and then north west. Since it is primarily radar - a reflection - it does NOT identify the a/c, however it has been correlated with SATCOM pings so confidence is high that the returns are from MH370
•See further information on oxygen and hypoxia below
•SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
•SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
•These are not paths and I have changed my language to reflect that. They represent a distance from the satellite.
•Loci one is north over Andaman Sea, Bay of Bengal as far as Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and is consistent with primary radar.
•Loci two is south over the India Ocean west of Australia. We've had no reports of radar signals in that area.
•The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
•Best data I have is SATCOM pings are hourly - so the 8:11 ping could be up to 1 hour before the aircraft stopped 'pinging'.
•We have no ELT signal detected.
•While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
•Debris reported by Greek oil tanker has already been reported as not relevant.
•Recent reports attributed to the FBI that the plane 'could have landed' and sent a satellite signal from the ground appear to be just confirming what we already knew - that the SATCOM pings could come from an a/c in flight, or powered up on the ground..
•There have been no reports that a Rolls Royce EH report was sent upon landing.
•UPDATE: There have been recent reports that the course changes were programed, not flown. See ACARS and FMS below.

Time-line (from CNN)
•1.07 am - Last ACARS transmission.
•1.19 am - Last verbal communication "All right, good night" from the plane; believed to be the co-pilot
•1.21 am - Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed)
•1.30 am - Civilian (primary) radar lost contact
•1.37 am - Expected ACARS transmission; not received
•2.15 am - Last military primary radar contact
•8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake

ACARS
•ACARS is an automated aircraft communication system that transmits a/c information, including navigation, operations, maintenance, etc to ATC and maintenance facilities.
•ACARS is NOT a flight system - it is not needed for safe flight.
•ACARS is a subscription service and costs money. All indications are the MH370 was subscribed only to engine health monitoring and data from that is sent to Rolls Royce.
•ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
•ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
•Reports that ACARS was disabled before the LOS event were incorrect. The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.
•UPDATE: ACARS can be used to send navigation information from ATC to the aircraft and vise versa.
•This later fact is causing confusion that I've been unable to rectify as yet. See ACARS and FMS Communications below.

ACARS data from MH370
•The ACARS system sent 2 engine health reports to Rolls Royce, both prior to the LOS event.
•The Rolls Royce page indicates that a 'snapshot' of engine data would be sent at: takeoff, climb, cruise and landing. We know 2 ACARS Engine Health reports were received, so that would be consistent with the 1st two.
•The last engine health report was received at 1:07am. The next was expected at 1:37 am and was not received. This indicates that the transmission of ACARS data was disabled between 1:07 and 1:37, but not when during that period.
•The Engine Health report received prior to LOS had 'interesting' altitude data/fluctuations including 40K drop in a minute. That data is suspect.
•Since no "landing" report was received, then either the ACARS communication was disabled, or the a/c did not land.
•We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

Way-point Tracks
•The use of way-points to the navigate are conjecture. They happen to line up with the direction indicated by the primary radar returns and Inmarsat data to the north.
•While many believe the aircraft was under control - we cannot conclude if these way-point were used, or just coincidentally along the path.
•A 777 can be programed to follow a series of way-point automatically - this is normal operating procedure and a 777 pilot would need no extra practice/training to do it. (Relevant to pilot flight simulator ownership)

ACARS and FMS (Flight Management System) Communications relevant to the WAY-POINTS
•Recent reports in the NYT imply that we 'know' that the turns made by MH370 were the result of programed heading (way-point) changes in the FMS, not hand flying.
•I believe this is another case of speculation being taken as fact but I may be wrong. Basis for that belief follows - rcair1.
•The NYT reports use inconsistent language. Specifically the article says:
•- "was most likely programmed by someone in the plane’s cockpit" (emphasis added)
•Followed by:
•- "Instead of manually operating the plane’s controls, whoever altered Flight 370’s path typed seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer, according to officials." This is stated as a fact
•To make it worse - the article also says:
•-"It is not clear whether the plane’s path was reprogrammed before or after it took off."
•But then it says.
•-"Flight 370’s Flight Management System reported its status to the Acars, which in turn transmitted information back to a maintenance base, according to an American official."
•Attempted analysis (by rcair1):
•The article is full of inconsistencies - which is red flag for speculation to me.
•I believe the sentence "It is not clear whether..." is key. If they do not know if the re-programing was done before or after takeoff, Then this is speculation, not fact.
•Why?: If we had data proving the FMS was reprogrammed - that data would have to come from the aircraft via some communication channel.
•-If that channel was gate communication - it happened before takeoff
•-If that channel was ACARS (VHF or SATCOM) - it happened after takeoff
•The fact that we do not know - means we did not receive the communication.
•Hence: It is speculation. BTW - I think it is likely to have happened, but that does not mean I know it.
•If we can get clarification on this - I will update it.
•
•Additional points:
•Question for experts in 777 FMS Navigation
•While I believe that the FMS (LNAV) can manage way-point transitions, I don't know if it manages altitude with way-points or not.
•We saw a/c change altitude - how would this be programmed? Could changes be 'between' way-points?
•The LNAV is part of the autopilot. If the a/c climbed to 45K and stalled, then recovered at 23K, I believe the autopilot would disengage at the stall.

SATCOM
•SATCOM is a communications channel - Satellite Communications. It is a radio system that uses satellites to communicate various information.
•SATCOM is not ACARS - it is one of the channels ACARS can use.
•The SATCOM system on MH370 was connecting to Inmarsat 3 satellites. In the area covered, the only satellite with coverage is IOR.

•Since only 1 satellite has coverage, no triangulation is possible. All that can be determined is distance from the satellite. This has been used to define 2 potential loci were the a/c could have been.
•North Corridor

•South Corridor

•We do not know if these corridors are defined by the last SATCOM ping, or multiple pings.
•We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
•We have not been told how the distance from IOR was estimated - it could be signal strength or time of flight (signal propagation time). Opinion: as an EE I think signal strength is unlikely - it would depend on things such as a/c orientation. Time of flight - which is how GPS works - seems more likely - however others have pointed out this requires precise timing.
•NOTE: While these may appear as paths - they are not. They are simply a set of potential locations based upon ping data. The aircraft could have been in a constant standard turn circle somewhere along one of the loci (red lines) and the satellite could not tell. We only know it was somewhere along those lines.

SATCOM Pings
•The SATCOM system sends (or responds to) periodic 'pings' to/from the satellites (hourly). These 'pings' are a network communication that says "I am here."
•SATCOM pings are not communicating a/c status, they are part of the communications channel. They are akin to registration pings on a cell system.
•The last pings were detected at 8:11am Malaysia time. This does not mean the aircraft went down or landed at this time, only that the last ping was 8:11. Source I've seen indicate the pings are hourly - but that is not confirmed.
•SATCOM pings provide no aircraft heading, speed or altitude information, however, distance from the Satellite can be estimated, and ONLY distance.
•Based on analysis of the SATCOM pings by Inmarsat, two possible corridors have been predicted based upon a radius from the satellite picking up the pings.
•SATCOM pings would be sent as long as the system (aircraft) was power up and withing coverage area. So, on the ground, if powered up (thanks to mandala499).
•People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
•Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
•Recent news about the fact that the plane could have landed really appears to be just a restatement of known data.
•Specifically - the SATCOM pings could have been sent from an aircraft powered, but landed - or from an aircraft in flight.
•Clarification: The key is the system is powered, whether by engines, apu or shore line (on the ground).
•Again: These pings to not contain ANY data about the aircraft position, speed, altitude, etc.
•The 'location' data inferred from the SATCOM pings is based analysis of those signals which gives an approximate distance from the satellite to the a/c.
•Since the satellite is in geosynchronous orbit (~22,000 miles), the difference in distance between a flying aircraft and one on the ground is probably not measurable.

Hypoxia and Pressurization
•There has been lots of speculation about loss of pressurization in the aircraft and what that would do to passengers and crew.
•IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside. Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
•In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
•The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
•Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
•Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_use...sciousness)
•Above 40,000 ft cabin altitude - positive pressure oxygen is required - passenger masks do not do this and would not be effective.
•Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
•The actual regulation is that passengers cannot be exposed to a cabin altitude of more than 25K for more than 2 minutes, or more than 40K for any time. (A380 got an exception to this rule.)

Cabin pressurization by Pilots (this is not as solid as I would like in terms of facts).
NOTE: Above 40K passenger masks are ineffective - positive pressure O2 is required.
•Question: Can the pilots 'depressurize' the plane?
•The FAA regulations state the a/c "must be designed so that occupants will not be exposed to cabin pressure altitudes in excess of 15,000 feet (4,600 m) after any probable failure condition in the pressurization system"
•So for normal 'failures' - no, the cabin will remain below 15K.
•However, per member mandala499 the pilots could: 1) Open outflow valves, 2) turn off bleed air. The cabin would then depressurize to current altitude.
•I have no data on how quickly this would happen - but I think it would take minutes at least.
•Let's investigate the sequence required and how that is related to the reported "climb to 45K":
•1) Pilots (or whomever is in control) switches to manual pressurization, turns off bleed, opens outflow valves.
•2) Cabin altitude climbs above 13,500 and passenger masks deploy - there is no way to prevent that. At that point passengers and cabin crew know.
•3) Presuming the pilots do not descent - passengers O2 will last 12-20 minutes. After that, depending on the cabin altitude they will loose effective consciousness (not loose consciousness, but effective consciousness).
•4) Cabin crew O2 will run out.
•5) During this time, the flight crew O2 will operate and I believe it lasts longer.
•6) At some point - depending on cabin altitude - those not on O2 will die (no other way to say it).
•
•The question becomes - how long would this sequence take?
•Below 40K cabin altitude - and once the cabin is depressurized- minimum 12-30 minutes for all passengers and cabin crew to become disabled. (I believe the flight deck crew has positive pressure O2 but I'm not sure.)
•Above 40K cabin altitude - I do not know - w/o positive pressure oxygen people will loose effective consciousness in seconds.
•With O2, but not positive pressure - will this be extended?
•If you descend below 40K with non positive pressure O2 masks still operating - will people recover?
•Summary:
•It appears flight crew (or knowledgeable hijackers) could depressurize the cabin and disable all.
•O2 masks would deploy so passengers and cabin crew would know.
•This would not be an instantaneous procedure - the biggest factor is how long would it take to depressurize the a/c.

CRV/FDR Data
•The CVR (cockpit voice recorder) and FDR (flight data recorder) do not transmit data in flight.
•They do emit sonic pings if immersed. These will last a minimum of 30 days. We can expect sonar is being used to listen for them.
•The pinger operates at 37.5KHz 106.5dp re 1μPa. (thanks k83713)
•Maximum depth of beacon detection in Normal Conditions: 1-2km
•Maximum depth of beacon detection in Good Conditions: 4-5km
•Localising a pinger from the surface in shallow water is relatively easy, as described above. In deep water, the detection equipment should be installed on a self-propelled underwater vehicle, presupposing that the position is already known to within the maximum 2-3km detection range.
•More Info:http://www.hydro-international.com/i...Deepwater_Black_Box_Retrieval.html
•The CVR reportedly is a 120 minute CVR so it would contain only the last 120 minutes of flight (presuming it did not fail or was turned off prior to that).
•I don't have data form the recording time of the FDR, but it is typically much longer.

ELT
•The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
•The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
•The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
•The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
•The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.

Primary versus Secondary Radar (brief tutorial)
•Primary radar is based on the original military usage. It sends out a strong (KW to MW) signal and looks for a reflection from something.
•Primary radar provides distance and location. Comparing returns speed can be determined. Strength of return can indicate size.
•Stealth a/c and ships are designed to absorb or miss-direct the reflection so primary radar cannot see them.
•Primary radar does not depend on the transponder, so turning off a transponder will not make an a/c disappear from primary.
•Primary radar is less prevalent than secondary - and more typically military tho ATC's do use it.
•Secondary Radar is really not Radar in the defined sense. It is directional communication.
•In secondary radar a directional signal is sent out (much less powerful than primary). Any a/c with a transponder that receives it will respond (the transponder responds) with information about the aircraft.
•Combined with the direction of the outgoing beam, the time of flight information and returned information, the a/c location and identity (and other info depending on the mode) is returned.
•Secondary radar is the primary method used by ATC.
•If the transponder fails or is turned off - secondary radar will not see the a/c.
•In the case of MH370
•The transponder was turned off - so the a/c disappeared from secondary (ATC) radar.
•A target was tracked west, then northwest using primary radar. That target was correlated with SATCOM pings help determine it was MH370.

Airworthiness Directive
•The airworthiness directive about corrosion near the SATCOM antenna does not apply to this ship.
•The ship DOES have SATCOM - but uses a different antenna

Cargo and Lithium Battery Fires.
•There are reports that the cargo in MH370 did not receive normal X-ray screening.
•There are also statements that the shipment held nothing hazardous or remarkable.
•There are reports of a shipment of lithium batteries on the a/c and that perhaps they caused a fire.
•The hold of a passenger a/c like the 777 is protected with Halon and detectors - so a fire in the hold would be detected.
•The EE bay is not so protected.
•Therefore some think a fire could have occurred and been suppressed. This does not directly explain loss of comms.
•Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c. However, those on the forum with more knowledge of these systems disagree.

Aircraft Type and Fuel State
•The aircraft was a Boeing 777-200ER. MTOW 656,000 lbs, 301 3 class passengers (standard Boeing Config - does not reflect MH specific config.)
•The aircraft could land in 6000 ft, or much less at high risk. As little as 3000ft has been stated, but it could not take off from there.
•The aircraft would need a hard surface to land - this is heavier that has been done on steel matts.
•It is reported the aircraft 45 to 60 minutes extra fuel. This would amount to about 7-7.5 hrs of fuel. This is a normal amount for this route.
•The aircraft should have been able to fly about 30 minutes after the last SATCOM ping at 8:11.
•The figure at this link show max range for the 777-200ER. NOTE: MH370 was not fueled for this range. http://www.boeing.com/assets/pdf/commerc...gapore.pdf


Search Areas (including those that have be halted)
•Along the planed route. I believe searching in this area is ending or decreasing based on new data indicating the a/c is not there
•West over the Malacca strait
•North west of Malacca strait
•Along the two loci predicted by the SATCOM pings which continue north to Kazakhstan/Turkmenistan and south to the India Ocean.
•These are huge search areas - I do not have a good handle on what assets are deployed where
•It appears the north loci is considered more likely because of primary radar signals that roughly correlate.
•I would expect review of primary radar west of Australia is in process if not done.

Mobile phones
•We continue to have lots of discussion on "mobile phones" - can the connect in flight, etc.
•We don't have any reports or evidence of that any passenger or crew mobile phone has registered with any network.
•Until we have that data or reports - I believe the mobile phone discussions are not getting us anywhere.
•UPDATE: This subject continues to be discussed. But, we have had no reports of cell phones registering with towers - we are in a loop here.

Theories and Conspiracy Theories
•Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
•Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
•There are lots of theories out there - some clearly "conspiracy based" some just factual. Often it is hard to distinguish.
•Here are a few.
•A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.
•Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
•Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
•Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.
•The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
•Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.
•The aircraft "shadowed" either a KLM or SIA aircraft to hide from radar then turned off the track and landed.
•Questions raised - lot of discussion about if this was possible.
•A mechanical failure depressurized the a/c and disabled the crew/passengers either rapidly or without their knowledge.
•Corollary to this - What disabled comms?
•One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
•The plane was hijacked, either with or without crew involvement.
•Despite the belief this is incident required human actions - we have no evidence of that. Rather - no other theory seems credible.
•Freescale engineers have been hijacked for sensitive US data. Opinion: As an engineer who has worked with Freescale - I find that unsupportable. Companies send groups of employees around all the time. While many companies have policies about the # of executives on a flight - that typically is not enforced on regular employees.
•There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.
•The plane was full of undeclared gold. Gold is very heavy - what would you declare the cargo as?
•The US hijacked the 777 using on board FBW technology to fly it like a drone to Diego Garcia (this one wins the insanity case).
•Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
•The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
•The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
•To address the data on a few of these:
•1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
•2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
•Note - there has been some discussion that the pilot used this for training of accomplices.
•3) There are rumors of family problems reported from China. This has been reported as untrue.

IN summary what we know is. (This has NOT changed)
•The a/c disappeared from secondary radar and stopped communicating. We do not know why or what happened to it.
•There is evidence from SATCOM and Radar that the a/c traveled west - then most likely north west.
•Hourly SATCOM signals show the a/c was operating till at least 8:11am Malaysia time, over 7 hrs total flight time
•We have not found it despite multiple governmental agencies from multiple countries searching hard.

Additional thoughts.
•A hijacking or positive intervention by human agency seems likely.
•The erratic altitude and course may indicate a struggle on board.
•While we would like to believe the a/c landed safely somewhere, that seems unlikely to have happened unobserved.


That is all.
Respectfully Submitted - rcair1

[cardguy]

[speakeasy]

I bet you anything the plane was headed for Somalia.

[AntiTrace]

(03-18-2014 01:38 PM)Professor Fox Wrote:  

snipped

great post. just reading through it now but the analysis seems pretty legit.

[AntiTrace]

some of my thoughts

(03-18-2014 01:38 PM)Professor Fox Wrote:  

From airliners.net, a good summary of every angle so far:
•The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia ant hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.

this is very suspicious. when handed from one controlling agency to another, you immediately put the new frequency in and contact them. They fact they responded without hint of an emergency, and never contact Vietnam Control tells me either it was deliberate or coincidentally whatever went wrong happened within seconds of the final transmission.


however the failure (or manual termination) of communications equipment does not agree with this theory.

it is looking very likely it was a deliberate act.

Quote:

•SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
•SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.

we know the a/c was intact for 7+ hours after final transmission.

Quote:

•The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.

darkness is important. when it is dark, light is easier to see of course. An A/C impacting the ground/sea will cause an explosion. This explosion will be very easy to see at night (given a clear sky) even at 35k feet. Airlines fly in predictable air corridors, which means if it did crash en route in an air corridor or close by, chances are someone would have seen it.

Quote:

•We have no ELT signal detected.

ELT is an emergency locator transmitter. Essentially it is a radio beacon. Can by turned on manually. However, ELTs always turn on automatically in a crash sequence (due to the G forces) unless the ELT is completely and utterly destroyed. The fact they are designed to withstand crashes, leads us to believe it most likely will not be destroyed in a crash.

Lack of a signal doesn't mean it is not transmitting. It is possible the a/c is at the bottom of the ocean and therefore the signal can not get out.

So we have three possible scenarios based off this:
1. A/C is at the bottom of the ocean.
2. ELT was destroyed on impact (very unlikely)
3. A/C didn't crash.

Quote:

•While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.

Lack of ELT data corresponds with this belief

Quote:

•8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake

important information. at 8:11 am, the a/c was still intact.

Quote:

•ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
•ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
•Reports that ACARS was disabled before the LOS event were incorrect. The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.

Again another important time frame. between 1:07 and 1:37 either ACARS was manually turned off or SATCOM/HF/VHF were all terminated. Much like your car, airplanes have several systems that work when nothing but the battery is on. I won't go into an electrical class here, but what you need to understand is that I guarentee one of those communication systems will operate on battery alone.

This means either it was manually turned off, complete electrical failure (extremely unlikely), or complete breakup of the a/c in flight (which the satellite pings prove is false).

again, leads us to believe it was a deliberate manual act.

Quote:

•We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.

ACARS is essentially a health management system. It is used by ground personell to acquire data and troubleshoot problems based off that data. I am not completely familiar with it, but for a health management system to not record a flame-out seems to defeat the point of it.

My opinion, pure conjecture, no facts to support that ACARS does not record and transmit flame-outs.

Quote:

•Question for experts in 777 FMS Navigation
•While I believe that the FMS (LNAV) can manage way-point transitions, I don't know if it manages altitude with way-points or not.
•We saw a/c change altitude - how would this be programmed? Could changes be 'between' way-points?

yes, altitudes can be programmed with waypoints.

Quote:

•The LNAV is part of the autopilot. If the a/c climbed to 45K and stalled, then recovered at 23K, I believe the autopilot would disengage at the stall.

stalls will kick the a/c out of autopilot mode. This was seen in the Air France crash a few years back.

Quote:

•We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.

conspiracy theorists may believe the plane landed somewhere, but all evidence we have contradicts that:

1. The engine health information is transmitted at landing, it was never received.
2. The A/C was still pinging satellites
3. If you were going to hijack/hide a plane, why would you keep it powered up on the ground (allowing it ping satellites) after it landed?

Quote:

•People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
•Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.

the radio system in your car is made up of seperate equipment. You have your control deck, wiring, vehicle power, and antenna.

Imagine your car being dropped from 35k feet, do you think all those components would survive and allow you to listen to your radio?

essentially the same thing when it comes to satcom pings

Quote:

Hypoxia and Pressurization
•IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside. Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
•In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
•The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
•Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
•Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_use...sciousness)
•Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.

Masks deploy automatically. If they don't and the a/c depressurizes, you have been 3 minutes to 9 seconds of consciousness depending on altitude.

Masks deploy automatically, cabin can be depressurized from the cockpit.

Quote:

ELT
•The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
•The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
•The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
•The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
•The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.

I am in disagreement about an ELT not function underwater. regardless given:

1. ELT is triggered by G forces.
2. ELT is powered independent of a/c power.
3. ELT transmits on guard (121.5/143.0/406mhz).
4. Everyone monitors guard frequencies.
5. ELT transmissions are extremely annoying to listen to, you will not "not hear" them.

tells us that either the plane didn't crash, or it did crash and is at the bottom of the ocean (given and ELT won't work when submerged).
[/quote]

Quote:

•Therefore some think a fire could have occurred and been suppressed. This does not directly explain loss of comms.
•Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c. However, those on the forum with more knowledge of these systems disagree.

conjecture. Airbone fires can be effectively fought using installed eqiupment. Lack of installed equipment, the crew still has access to manual extinguishers.

And again, this doesn't explain that the last transmission was to an ATC agency.

If an A/C has a fire, the pilot is going to switch his transponder to emergency (7700) and radio out a mayday call.

Quote:

Theories and Conspiracy Theories
•Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
•Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.

Exactly. I could tell you I shit rainbows, but thats not going to happen. People are assuming the perfect storm which disables all communication, incapacitates EVERYONE on board, and still allows the plane to flow for 7 hours.

All within a few second timeframe (from their last known transmission to when you would expect a pilot to swap a frequency and contact the next controlling agency).

Quote:

•A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.

with no mayday call? no. simple as that.

Quote:

•Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
•Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
•Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.

pipe dreams. again, a mayday call would have been instantaneous. And the a/c was flying for 7 hours after last radio contact. An a/c that catches fire in flight is going to burn extremely fast, its not going to take 7 hours. And if the pilots were forced out of the cockpit due to fire, the plane wouldn't have flown another 7 hours.

Quote:

•The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
•Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.

given lack of possible landing areas and the size of the search this is unlikely.

Quote:

•One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).

Possible, except when think that there is more than one pilot. The chances on two pilots agreeing on a suicide plot together?

Possible there was a suicidal pilot that killed the other pilot and then did all this, but no were are just stretching.

Quote:

•There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.

the logisitcs of stealing cargo while it is being loaded (cough...you ever had an airline lose your bag?) is not even comparable to the process of sabotaging a commercial airline and 200+ people to steal something.

Quote:

•Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).

brings up the point of hijacking a fly by wire a/c. would make a cool movie, but its not feasbile. pilots can deactivate the fbw system. they could also communicate via radios in the even the fbw system was corrupt.

Quote:

Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
•The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.

right, an entire crew was in on this. right...

Quote:

•The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
•To address the data on a few of these:
•1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
•2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. [i]Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.

again. there is more than one pilot.

secondly. a simulator in his house says nothing. Many pilots have simulators in one form or another. And you don't use a simulator to practice typical commercial flights from one airport to another. You use a simulator to practice weather landings, emergency procedures, or just to have fun because you love aviation (which is why your a fucking pilot in the first case).

not to mention a pilot is given flight evaluations to maintain his license. flight evaluations test on *gasp* your ability to handle emergency procedures. Failing of these means either losing your license or being grounded while undergoing additional training means that there is high motivation to maintain your ability to fly. Hence why some pilots have simulators to practice this and thus not lose their license/be grounded.

the fact they are hinting that a commercial pilot having a simulator is a sign of some devious intent is ludicrous.

[speakeasy]

^^^ One of the pilots could've been intentionally incapacitated by the other. For example, some chemical substance or "roofie" in a cup a coffee.

[AntiTrace]

(03-18-2014 04:39 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

^^^ One of the pilots could've been intentionally incapacitated by the other. For example, some chemical substance or "roofie" in a cup a coffee.

possible.

i do believe it was a deliberate act.

[Sombro]

   

[speakeasy]

In some weird way I would feel relieved if it was a deliberate act. I don't want to think that a plane with such an impeccable safety record would go down in the middle of the ocean due to mechanical failure. That to me is somehow more scary than a deliberate act. Though the outcome is the same regardless.