some of my thoughts
Quote: (03-18-2014 01:38 PM)Professor Fox Wrote:
From airliners.net, a good summary of every angle so far:
•The last comms were "All right, good night" transmitted to Malaysia ant hand-off to Vietnam control. Vietnam was not contacted. It has been reported it was the First Officer's voice.
this is very suspicious. when handed from one controlling agency to another, you immediately put the new frequency in and contact them. They fact they responded without hint of an emergency, and never contact Vietnam Control tells me either it was deliberate or coincidentally whatever went wrong happened within seconds of the final transmission.
however the failure (or manual termination) of communications equipment does not agree with this theory.
it is looking very likely it was a deliberate act.
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•SATCOM system pings continued for 7+ (last ping at 08:11 local) hrs after LOS (loss of signal)
•SATCOM pings do not locate the aircraft but based on correlation to signal strength there are two loci that indication aircraft distance from the Satellite.
we know the a/c was intact for 7+ hours after final transmission.
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•The last SATCOM ping was at 8:11 am Malaysian time. At that time it would be dark on the north radius and light over the south radius.
darkness is important. when it is dark, light is easier to see of course. An A/C impacting the ground/sea will cause an explosion. This explosion will be very easy to see at night (given a clear sky) even at 35k feet. Airlines fly in predictable air corridors, which means if it did crash en route in an air corridor or close by, chances are someone would have seen it.
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•We have no ELT signal detected.
ELT is an emergency locator transmitter. Essentially it is a radio beacon. Can by turned on manually. However, ELTs always turn on automatically in a crash sequence (due to the G forces) unless the ELT is completely and utterly destroyed. The fact they are designed to withstand crashes, leads us to believe it most likely will not be destroyed in a crash.
Lack of a signal doesn't mean it is not transmitting. It is possible the a/c is at the bottom of the ocean and therefore the signal can not get out.
So we have three possible scenarios based off this:
1. A/C is at the bottom of the ocean.
2. ELT was destroyed on impact (very unlikely)
3. A/C didn't crash.
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•While authorities (Malaysian) have not confirmed this is a hijacking or purposeful event - it is believed that is highly likely by most, however, motivation is unknown.
Lack of ELT data corresponds with this belief
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•8.11 am - Last (hourly) satellite handshake
important information. at 8:11 am, the a/c was still intact.
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•ACARS communicates via VHF, HF or SATCOM. The communications channel depends on availability and is independent of the ACARS.
•ACARS can be instructed not to use SATCOM, HF or VHF from the Cockpit. This would effectively stop ACARS from sending data. Access to the EE bay is not required.
•Reports that ACARS was disabled before the LOS event were incorrect. The last ACARS transmission was at 1:07. The next was expected at 1:37 and was not received. This means ACARS communication was disabled between those times. This could be action by the flight-deck crew or system failure.
Again another important time frame. between 1:07 and 1:37 either ACARS was manually turned off or SATCOM/HF/VHF were all terminated. Much like your car, airplanes have several systems that work when nothing but the battery is on. I won't go into an electrical class here, but what you need to understand is that I guarentee one of those communication systems will operate on battery alone.
This means either it was manually turned off, complete electrical failure (extremely unlikely), or complete breakup of the a/c in flight (which the satellite pings prove is false).
again, leads us to believe it was a deliberate manual act.
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•We have not heard if ACARS would send a report upon fuel starvation flame-out.
ACARS is essentially a health management system. It is used by ground personell to acquire data and troubleshoot problems based off that data. I am not completely familiar with it, but for a health management system to not record a flame-out seems to defeat the point of it.
My opinion, pure conjecture, no facts to support that ACARS does not record and transmit flame-outs.
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•Question for experts in 777 FMS Navigation
•While I believe that the FMS (LNAV) can manage way-point transitions, I don't know if it manages altitude with way-points or not.
•We saw a/c change altitude - how would this be programmed? Could changes be 'between' way-points?
yes, altitudes can be programmed with waypoints.
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•The LNAV is part of the autopilot. If the a/c climbed to 45K and stalled, then recovered at 23K, I believe the autopilot would disengage at the stall.
stalls will kick the a/c out of autopilot mode. This was seen in the Air France crash a few years back.
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•We cannot distinguish if the a/c was flying or parked on the ground (powered up) when these pings were sent.
conspiracy theorists may believe the plane landed somewhere, but all evidence we have contradicts that:
1. The engine health information is transmitted at landing, it was never received.
2. The A/C was still pinging satellites
3. If you were going to hijack/hide a plane, why would you keep it powered up on the ground (allowing it ping satellites) after it landed?
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•People have asked if SATCOM pings could come from a crashed plane if the right parts survived.
•Very unlikely. The system is not self contained, the equipment, power and antennas are separate.
the radio system in your car is made up of seperate equipment. You have your control deck, wiring, vehicle power, and antenna.
Imagine your car being dropped from 35k feet, do you think all those components would survive and allow you to listen to your radio?
essentially the same thing when it comes to satcom pings
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Hypoxia and Pressurization
•IMPORTANT NOTE: all of this applies to cabin pressure - not the pressure outside. Just climbing to 45K would not exposed the passengers to that altitude - the aircraft would have to be depressurized.
•In the case of loss of cabin pressure - O2 mask would deploy automatically.
•The pilots cannot disable this above 13,500 feet - they can release the masks.
•Passengers masks would last 12-20 minutes. Portable crew (FA) bottles ~30minutes. Cockpit crew longer.
•Time of useful consciousness (not to loss of consciousness) will range from 1-3 minutes at 30K to 9-15 seconds at 43K. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_of_use...sciousness)
•Because of this the a/c must be certified able to descend and pilots demonstrate an emergency descent to ~10,000 ft in 2 minutes.
Masks deploy automatically. If they don't and the a/c depressurizes, you have been 3 minutes to 9 seconds of consciousness depending on altitude.
Masks deploy automatically, cabin can be depressurized from the cockpit.
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ELT
•The ELT, or emergency locater transmitter is mounted in the rear of the aircraft - difficult to access in flight.
•The ELT is battery powered - independent built in power source. It is this source that is suspect in causing the 787 fire at Heathrow.
•The ELT will be trigged by G forces in a crash. It will not operate under water.
•The ELT can be triggered from the cockpit - it is a hardwired switch not dependent on computer systems.
•The ELT transmits on the guard frequency (VHF) and on 406MHz to satellites. If it had been triggered (above water), satellites would have heard it and been able to locate the a/c.
I am in disagreement about an ELT not function underwater. regardless given:
1. ELT is triggered by G forces.
2. ELT is powered independent of a/c power.
3. ELT transmits on guard (121.5/143.0/406mhz).
4. Everyone monitors guard frequencies.
5. ELT transmissions are extremely annoying to listen to, you will not "not hear" them.
tells us that either the plane didn't crash, or it did crash and is at the bottom of the ocean (given and ELT won't work when submerged).
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•Therefore some think a fire could have occurred and been suppressed. This does not directly explain loss of comms.
•Opinion: as a firefighter, I doubt this. The fire would destroy the a/c. However, those on the forum with more knowledge of these systems disagree.
conjecture. Airbone fires can be effectively fought using installed eqiupment. Lack of installed equipment, the crew still has access to manual extinguishers.
And again, this doesn't explain that the last transmission was to an ATC agency.
If an A/C has a fire, the pilot is going to switch his transponder to emergency (7700) and radio out a mayday call.
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Theories and Conspiracy Theories
•Currently, it seems most believe there is some positive action here - hijacker or crew based.
•Opinion: Mostly, I believe this is because a mechanical failure that selectively terminates communication, incapacitates the crew/passengers, but then allows the a/c to fly on uncontrolled for 7 hours seems unlikely.
Exactly. I could tell you I shit rainbows, but thats not going to happen. People are assuming the perfect storm which disables all communication, incapacitates EVERYONE on board, and still allows the plane to flow for 7 hours.
All within a few second timeframe (from their last known transmission to when you would expect a pilot to swap a frequency and contact the next controlling agency).
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•A fire broke out that incapacitated passengers and crew - but allowed to aircraft to fly on it's own till starvation.
with no mayday call? no. simple as that.
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•Corollary to this - the fire would have to disable comms, or cause the crew to disable comms in an attempt to fight it.
•Corollary to this - the fire drove the pilots out of the cockpit.
•Corollary to this - the fire disabled comms, nav and systems, and the crew - still alive - got lost trying to return.
pipe dreams. again, a mayday call would have been instantaneous. And the a/c was flying for 7 hours after last radio contact. An a/c that catches fire in flight is going to burn extremely fast, its not going to take 7 hours. And if the pilots were forced out of the cockpit due to fire, the plane wouldn't have flown another 7 hours.
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•The a/c was hijacked and flown to a remote strip to be used in a future terrorist act.
•Corollary to this - The breadth of the countries searching alone makes this problematic, but it is not impossible.
given lack of possible landing areas and the size of the search this is unlikely.
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•One of the pilots hijacked the plane to commit suicide. (See Pilot Conspiracy below).
Possible, except when think that there is more than one pilot. The chances on two pilots agreeing on a suicide plot together?
Possible there was a suicidal pilot that killed the other pilot and then did all this, but no were are just stretching.
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•There was something in the Cargo worth stealing - which is why it was not screened. This would require involvement of lots of people on the ground. Why not steal it on the ground.
the logisitcs of stealing cargo while it is being loaded (cough...you ever had an airline lose your bag?) is not even comparable to the process of sabotaging a commercial airline and 200+ people to steal something.
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•Related: There has been a claim by counter terrorist expert that this could be a "cyber hijack" - a malicious attack of a FBW a/c. I don't know where to go with this - only reporting it because I'm trying to stay ahead of the next craze. Opinion: (speaking as an EE) this is the stuff dreams are made of (bad dreams).
brings up the point of hijacking a fly by wire a/c. would make a cool movie, but its not feasbile. pilots can deactivate the fbw system. they could also communicate via radios in the even the fbw system was corrupt.
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Pilot Related Conspiracy Theories (some of this is my opinion).
•The crew and passengers are a focus of investigation. Particularly the crew, because of the difficulty of managing an external cockpit intrusion.
right, an entire crew was in on this. right...
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•The pilot has received a lot of attention because: 1) He supports opposition politics, 2) He has a mongo flight simulator, 3) There are rumors of family problems (debunked).
•To address the data on a few of these:
•1) The pilot supports opposition politics and may have been at a trial of the opposition leader (confirmed 'ordinary' member of opposition party). Opinion: What is the motive for suicide in this case?
•2) The pilot has a very fancy flight simulator. People claim he used it to for this. [i]Opinion: A 777 pilot does not need to train for the flying done - he knows how to do that stuff already. What he needs it planning for violent action/takeover. A flight simulator is no help.
again. there is more than one pilot.
secondly. a simulator in his house says nothing. Many pilots have simulators in one form or another. And you don't use a simulator to practice typical commercial flights from one airport to another. You use a simulator to practice weather landings, emergency procedures, or just to have fun because you love aviation (which is why your a fucking pilot in the first case).
not to mention a pilot is given flight evaluations to maintain his license. flight evaluations test on *gasp* your ability to handle emergency procedures. Failing of these means either losing your license or being grounded while undergoing additional training means that there is high motivation to maintain your ability to fly. Hence why some pilots have simulators to practice this and thus not lose their license/be grounded.
the fact they are hinting that a commercial pilot having a simulator is a sign of some devious intent is ludicrous.