Quote: (10-21-2012 07:25 PM)Hencredible Casanova Wrote:
I'm not into US politics nor could I say with a straight face that I actually care about the outcome of the presidential election (has almost no relevance to my personal goals), but it looks like Romney has the lead going into election day. Would be quite a comeback from where he had been in the polls not even a month ago if he were to win.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...anges.html
He won't.
Romney's gains are more national than anything else. He has strengthened his stance in states he would already would have won anyway (see Southern States).
Regardless, his chances of winning the election are low.
Thanks to our electoral college I am calling this election for Obama.
New Mexico is now confirmed to be in Obama's pocket-it's full swing blue. Ohio isn't quite "full swing" for Obama, but considering the large lead he holds there (even after debate one) and the fact that 2/3 of early voters reported voting for Obama (money in the bank), that state is his for all intents and purposes.
Why does this matter? Because OH and NM are the most accurate states when it comes to choosing the winner of Presidential elections. Each state has only be wrong twice, and one of the NM's "incorrect" picks was Gore over Bush, so that might as well have a big " * " next to it anyways. Whoever these states pick ends up becoming President over 90% of the time, and both are pulling for Obama.
Let's take a look at this 270 to win map:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_pr...?mapid=GNB
I gave Romney EVERY swing state, even ones polling heavily for Obama right now (like Nevada)...and every possible swing state only gets Romney a TIE with Obama. That's right: Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Virginia, N. Carolina, , all going for Romney, gives him only a tie. And that's ignoring the fact that NV and Iowa are almost certainly voting Obama.
Translation? Romney is toast.
The debates don't matter, and unless Obama says something like "I really AM a Marxist, Muslim Terrorist who plans to declare Friedrich Engels the secretary of treasury.", it's impossible for Obama to lose.
Of course, we'll all be interested in the polls and debates right up to the election because, well, who wouldn't be? But this election is just a mere formality.
Nate Silver, the guy who was one state off in his electoral prediction in 2008,gives Obama a 70-30 split. Many political scientist, journalist, policy wonks, etc, call his blog the poll of polls.
Sam Wang, who works at the Princeton Election commission, the only site that was more accurate than Nate's blog in 08, gives Obama a 91% chance of electoral victory.
Of course, anything could happen....but if I were a betting man I'd put my money on Obama.
Also, anyone who votes for someone because they can bicep curl forty pounds is a dumbbell (no pun intended).