over 50 years ago or so (around that time) we had things like the civil rights movement going on

Now I say 50 years is too much maybe to guess, who knows what can happen till then, but 20 to 50 years from now, what social changes do you see happening in the US?

Worsening inter-ethnic tensions as the economic pie shrinks and every group looks for someone else to blame.

Strengthening of the police state.

Government takes on more socialistic policies as a form of appeasement, token redistribution.

What will the USA look between now and 2062...

1. Minority-majority is certain. The USA has always been a firmly, predominantly white nation. Demographers estimate that this will change during the early 2040's thanks to low white fertility rates and immigration. By 2062, this nation will have possibly been majority non-white for almost a generation. Most of these non-whites will be hispanic, though the black population will grow significantly as well. Immigration will boost the asian population too.

That in and of itself is going to bring a big difference in perspective within this society.

2. Expect more religiosity and conservatism overall. This is a function of demography. Among whites, conservatives are rapidly outbreeding their more secular counterparts, and the outflow from these ideologies to more secular trains of thought is simply not keeping up (apples are not falling far from their trees). The majority of white children being born today are being born in conservative households and often are raised with religious values.

Those chickens are going to come home to roost within the coming 20, 30 and 40 years as liberal whites continue to decline as a percentage of their population. Combine this phenomenon with a non-white majority (non-whites being generally more religious and socially conservative than whites), and you're going to see a significantly more conservative America during this century. Demographic weight is going to tip the balance in the culture wars to the more conservative side, and hot-button issues like abortion are going to be in the cross fire.

Some of the more progressive victories won during these recent culture wars (I include the gender wars among these) may be challenged.

3. This prediction is more tenuous, but I foresee a positive outlook for American industry as labor costs in traditional destinations for outsourcing (ex: China) begin to rise and erode the advantage they once enjoyed. Europe's demographic issues will also benefit us by raising labor costs, and incentivizing some corporations (ex: Mercedes) to move operations to the United States, a massive market that will maintain a much younger and cheaper workforce.
America's demographic strength will help it remain economically powerful well into the current century. It will be in a much better position than Europe and even China in the long run, with a younger population helping it weather the entitlement storm brought on by the baby-boomers much more effectively.

I may even cautiously predict a small boom during the late 2020's and early-mid 2030's resulting from the demographic dividend yielded from the passing of the large baby-boomer generation. That will help lower the dependency ratio somewhat and yield a small gain (somewhat limited in size by the youth of the American population). This dividend could also be yielded in Europe and East Asia, and might be larger there due to their older populations (more skewed dependency ratio).

4. Americans will get thinner. I predict the arrival of several medical procedures capable of rapidly limiting obesity by 2062, and I expect the anti-obesity campaign to ramp up significantly well before then (it already has, really).
I see some parallels between our current cultural tangle with obesity and the one our parents dealt with when it came to smoking. Like smoking, obesity is going to become increasingly less tolerable.

These are just my two cents.

I'm kind of butthurt about the future abolition of honkeyville, USA. There's a lot I don't like about how it is now, but eventually becoming a minority group is something I'm not prepared to deal with. I never even saw a black guy until I was 8. Not a race troll, just fear of the future.
Also very discouraged with the predicted increases in conservatism and religiosity. I'm not a huge fan of either.

Personally I think that being very fat will become the new normal. Life expectancy will drop from 70s-80s to roughly 55 to 65 years old. Incidence of great bodily fatness will happen earlier in life, beginning about age 12 for many. The average male will weigh between 190 and 255 pounds, average female from 175 to 245 pounds. Greater incidence of bulimia and anorexia will become prevalent in the population. General physical illness, such as allergies, increases, with the standard medical question being "Are you within the normal range, or healthy?"

Weed will get decriminalized, then recriminalized, then the federal government will decide that it's up to the states.

Dumb people will get lost without a Heads Up Display in their sunglasses. Computer-human interaction reaches watershed and people gradually grow more and more schizoidal as they lose contact with face-to-face social reality. Incidence of mental illness greatly increases. Game won't work anymore, as nobody can be distracted from their media devices long enough for the hindbrain to even activate.

Average age of lost virginity is something like 30, and is done in a medical setting for the purpose of eugenics research. High schools segregate genders in an attempt to prevent the "culture of sexual harassment" at the source. The population drops from 9-10 billion back to 7 billion. The terms "man" and "woman" are lost to humanity, replaced with "friend" or "human". The average human mood becomes depression.

With the increasing feminization of the population underway, there is no backlash against consumerism as men attempt to fit in with the new job market. Products designed to increase the attractiveness of men, such as skin creams, eyeliner, hair dye, and razors, grow hugely in demand. The typical family unit consists of two gender-confused people, one point seven gender confused children, and one hypoallergenic dog.

So yeah guys, keep lifting weights.

I think we'll see the legalization of gay marriage and marijuana. As well as the end of the war on drugs. I could also see the US officially becoming bilingual as Latin American immigration and positive birthrates overtake "white" America.

Another thing that could happen, but I doubt will, is that we'll start seeing major skirmishes between the disenfranchised and the police hired to keep them in control. It seems that no matter what race, religion, or class, people just don't trust the police anymore. Peaceful protesting is just getting people's asses kicked and put up on youtube. Something will eventually break the camel's back. The question becomes; will the common man fight back, or just accept it and fall in line?

The United States as we know it will cease to exist and so will the Constitution. The excessive debt load will become unsustainable and will bankrupt the republic. And like history has shown, all bankrupted republics become totalitarian like dictatorships.

Continental US may even split up due to the massive cultural difference between the regions.

Organic population decrease due to birth control (free widely available- at grocery store or school), abortion (free and widely), available), babies allowed to be killed up to age 3, women working, and massive increase in homosexuality due to social engineering and conditioning), overall economic depression delaying family formation,continued disenfranchisement economically of men, and China-like limits on children - 2 per family.

Economic capital of the World will be CHINA and the East.

Medical care severely restricted for all but the very rich. Travel severely restricted for all but very rich.

Your career will be decided before you are 10 years old ....and you will not be allowed to change it.

All, but the very rich will be given a date to DIE. You will not be allowed to live as long as you want.

Everybody chipped - with electronic implanted when you born - it will have all ID, medical records, and geographic records, and financial records, it will hold your money - which will be electronic - and hence your entire life will be monitored by central authorities all the time.

At the rate of spending the USA is on by 2022 we will be at 220% of gross domestic product. That means we're spending 120% more than the the entire US economy generates. Even a slight change in the interest rate between now and then on trillions of dollars of debt will cripple the USA. Anyone not preparing for a Greece style meltdown American-style is not paying attention.

50 years from now we'll be riding horses around remembering how Netflix used to mail DVDs overnight while we scramble to catch and kill our next meal.

I really hope for Secession movements to pick up steam. America is toast. Let the States save themselves.

i'm kind of surprised - i've said before that i think the US will break up in my lifetime - and to see those thoughts echoed here kind of surprise me. if the mess doesnt get sorted out soon things will get worse and worse, and at that point i wouldnt be surprised if a place like TX gets sick of dealing with the bankrupt debacles that are CA and IL and wants to leave

I don't see the doom and gloom. People said the same stuff 50 years ago. Doom and gloomers are almost always wrong which is why I always bet on the conservative side of things.

Quote: (08-05-2012 07:51 PM)Hades Wrote:  

I'm kind of butthurt about the future abolition of honkeyville, USA. There's a lot I don't like about how it is now, but eventually becoming a minority group is something I'm not prepared to deal with. I never even saw a black guy until I was 8. Not a race troll, just fear of the future.

A lot of whites feel precisely the way you do, which is why you can expect to see interracial tensions come to the forefront a little more often in coming years.
The reality is that many (most?) whites do not feel entirely comfortable with the direction America is going in, and they're not going to ride quietly into the sunset. You will see the pushback in politics (it will begin to frame policy debates and party lines will become increasingly racially defined), demographics (the acceleration of white flight, increased segregation between a dwindling number of white and and increasing number of mainly non-white areas) and a number of other dimensions.

This is going to be a very interesting 50 years coming up.

Quote: (08-05-2012 11:09 PM)Athlone McGinnis Wrote:  

This is going to be a very interesting 50 years coming up.

I agree.

But, at the end of the day, I think the important question is, will it be a "good interesting" or "bad interesting" next half-century?

Hypergamy will increase as women become more independent, excitement to get married softens, celebrity worship proliferates. Diminished stigma for polygamous relationships.

Obesity plateaus but fatties reach the point of 100% 'acceptance' i.e. they no longer feel aesthetically inferior to slim people. There's a possibility some combination of drugs, attitudes and public policy shift to reduce obesity, but that won't happen for at least another 15 years.

White girls get bitchier and possibly more insular, as they get more scarce while remaining the belle of the ball.

Driverless cars (think robot taxis) radically alters where and how people live, and what cities look like.

If effective, easy male birth control becomes a reality, birth rates will plummet. If combined with old Margaret Sanger-style progressive public policy, the incidence of bastardy could plummet. The difference in fecundity between the religious on one hand, and the secular and the bastard-mongers on the other, increases.

Babies with deformities become much rarer, due to screenings that detect them followed by abortions.

Will 'social networks' tire themselves out and collapse, restoring the old-fashioned ones? Seems like it's happening already. Social networks become more narrowly focused with immediate benefits.



These are pretty conservative, and already happening in one way or another.

Middle America (i.e., white America) will go the way of Black America. More single moms, more men in prison, more towns looking like Methland:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/books/...irn-t.html

Lots of poverty, angry, disaffected youth who turn to drugs and alcohol.

Old people will be seen as a drain and will be resented. There won't be outright slaughter, but when there's a heat wave, no one will be worried about whether the olds have air conditioning.

Meanwhile, there will be a super rich elite ruling class. People will earn their meager living serving the ruling class.

Quote: (08-05-2012 11:28 PM)MSW2007 Wrote:  

Quote: (08-05-2012 11:09 PM)Athlone McGinnis Wrote:  

This is going to be a very interesting 50 years coming up.

I agree.

But, at the end of the day, I think the important question is, will it be a "good interesting" or "bad interesting" next half-century?

The answer to that question may depend on your perspective. Progressives, for example, may have much more to cry about in this century than in recent decades. White conservatives will be laughing and worrying-laughing because the demographic weight will aid their socially conservatives aims, worrying because many will be concerned about the changing racial/cultural composition of what was once clearly their country.

I do not think this nation will be quite as friendly to the obese in coming decades, especially as the baby boomers pass-on and the nation becomes younger (aging contributes significantly to the rise of obesity rates). Combine that with increasing awareness about the side effects of obesity and I posit that the obese may not have much to cheer about.

Quote: (08-05-2012 11:54 PM)basilransom Wrote:  

If effective, easy male birth control becomes a reality, birth rates will plummet. If combined with old Margaret Sanger-style progressive public policy, the incidence of bastardy could plummet. The difference in fecundity between the religious on one hand, and the secular and the bastard-mongers on the other, increases.

If this happens, expect a very religious America (and world, really) by the end of the century.
This is already going coming, but a male birth control pill will ensure it comes in much shorter and more dramatic order.
These more conservative people will, possibly by the middle of this century, hold most of the voting power and most of the economic power (read: they're going to be the bulk of the working age demographic and the bulk of the tax-paying public that will be supporting the older progressive demographics), and they're going to use it to the fullest.

Who knows. I hope it's not like this

Quote: (08-06-2012 12:36 AM)MikeCF Wrote:  

Middle America (i.e., white America) will go the way of Black America. More single moms, more men in prison, more towns looking like Methland:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/books/...irn-t.html
...

I would add prescriptions drugs to the mix. Meth and prescription drugs (particularly Oxicontin) have been like a 1-2 punch for middle class to poor whites. As the poverty increases, I expect the drug use to skyrocket. This is particularly true when you consider that of the two types of drugs, one (meth) can be manufactured at home, and the other (prescription drugs) is manufactured and sold by large pharmaceutical companies, who will fight legislation that further restricts access to their product.

One of the things that I see happening is the destruction (or as some like to call it, the "hollowing out") of the middle class. People talk about all of the gains the rich/upper class/1% have made over the past few decades, and it is extraordinary. However, the upper-middle class has done VERY well in that time period too.

The folks that have gotten screwed have been the middle class and below. Lets just call them the bottom 70-80%. Probably the upper third of that group has had stagnant growth. However, the bottom two thirds has had negative growth.

Technology is VERY quickly wiping out many low skill blue collar and white collar jobs. For those guys in their thirties and older, remember how many bank tellers their were when you were a kid? What about now? ATM's have hammered that career field. Remember when people would book trips through a travel agency? Orbitz, Priceline, and Travelocity destroyed that.

Those jobs technology cannot destroy on its own (yet) can be destroyed when you combine technology with outsourcing. Did you guys know that McDonalds is experimenting with outsourcing the cashier you speak to in the drive thru? Rather than giving your order to some person with a microphone inside the McDonald's, your request is routed to a call center in Colorado. That person takes your order then sends it via the internet back to the McDonald's restaurant's computer screen.

Why would they do that? Because they discovered that the person in the call center can handle 3-4 times as many order request per hour as the person in the drive thru. Also, if multiple McDonald's are sending their orders to one call center, that employee has MUCH less dead time waiting for customers.

A lot of the accounting/bookkeeping jobs are being automated also. How much has TurboTax cut into the income of CPA's and especially Tax Preparers like H&R Block. My bet is that real estate agents are going to get hit hard next, if they haven't already.

Right now, even college professors are under attack. Tenure is disappearing and being replaced with adjunct teachers who are working their asses off and barely clearing $30K IF they can find enough classes to teach. Now, some universities/colleges are talking about using all of the free course videos release by top schools for lectures and just having somebody at the local school grade the papers.

At the other end of the spectrum, I am still astounded by the high salaries some professions get now. $100K+ software developer jobs are common. $150K is normal for a senior guy, and $200K+ is not unheard of. I know guys who are quants on Wall street that started out with salaries in the $80-100K (plus bonus) range right after finishing their MS in Financial Mathematics/Financial Engineering. Some of these guys are clearing $300K with bonuses now, after a few years in the game. I know a few that are probably close to 7 figures. This isn't even counting the finance guys that have become managing directors or partners.

As this split between the affluent/rich and everyone else continues, it is going to get nasty being in that bottom 70-80%. In addition to the pay stagnation, another issue is job security and retirement benefits are out of the window. Fewer companies are offering pensions, preferring to replace them with employee managed 401Ks. What few companies that are offering pensions are always threatening to raid those same pensions and destroy the lives of people who have worked for the company for 20-30 years. Couple that with the death of unions and the middle class is screwed.

Quote: (08-06-2012 05:41 AM)joehoya Wrote:  

At the other end of the spectrum, I am still astounded by the high salaries some professions get now. $100K+ software developer jobs are common. $150K is normal for a senior guy, and $200K+ is not unheard of. I know guys who are quants on Wall street that started out with salaries in the $80-100K (plus bonus) range right after finishing their MS in Financial Mathematics/Financial Engineering. Some of these guys are clearing $300K with bonuses now, after a few years in the game. I know a few that are probably close to 7 figures. This isn't even counting the finance guys that have become managing directors or partners.

Aside from the software developers and doctors, it seems that everyone who is killing it right now is rent-seeking in one way or another.

if the dollar blows up, your cash/liquid assets will be worth nothing. but before the dollar blows up, the euro will crash (hopefully).
its time for the reset button anyway, but i hope that stupid politicians do not risk war in all directions and fucking up all countries/infrastructure.

Quote: (08-06-2012 11:11 AM)void Wrote:  

if the dollar blows up, your cash/liquid assets will be worth nothing. but before the dollar blows up, the euro will crash (hopefully).
its time for the reset button anyway, but i hope that stupid politicians do not risk war in all directions and fucking up all countries/infrastructure.

How and why would the dollar "blow up?"

Quote: (08-06-2012 05:06 AM)joehoya Wrote:  

Quote: (08-06-2012 12:36 AM)MikeCF Wrote:  

Middle America (i.e., white America) will go the way of Black America. More single moms, more men in prison, more towns looking like Methland:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/books/...irn-t.html
...

I would add prescriptions drugs to the mix. Meth and prescription drugs (particularly Oxicontin) have been like a 1-2 punch for middle class to poor whites. As the poverty increases, I expect the drug use to skyrocket. This is particularly true when you consider that of the two types of drugs, one (meth) can be manufactured at home, and the other (prescription drugs) is manufactured and sold by large pharmaceutical companies, who will fight legislation that further restricts access to their product.

Politically:

As War World II was the defining event of the 20th century, within the next 50 years we will see the defining event of the 21st century, namely, the collapse of the dollar. I used to think that the dollar would collapse by 2020, but given how shitty the rest of the world is, it might take much longer.

America's unsustainable debt loads spells doom for the dollar. Socialistic policies (universal health care, supporting single moms for free, supporting the sick and elderly for free) and military adventurism will mean the USA needs to take out more and more debt to pay off new programs as well as existing loans. Eventually, no one will buy US loans as no one will believe that they will be repaid in full, just like it has been with Greece, Iceland, Belarus, or any other country that goes through bankruptcy and spends beyond its means.

And once America defaults on its trillions of debt, the dollar will lose most of its value. Consider: Greece partially defaulted in 2012 and the Euro dropped from 1.5 euros to the dollar in 2011 to 1.25 euros in 2012. A small little country like Greece defaults and the Euro loses nearly 20% of its value. Can you imagine what the trillions of American debt will do once defaulted upon?

Because the dollar is the last thing holding together an increasingly racially fragmented country, when the dollar dies so too will any semblance of American patriotism.

Regionalism will then be king. As Athlone said above:

Quote:Quote:

2. Expect more religiosity and conservatism overall. This is a function of demography. Among whites, conservatives are rapidly outbreeding their more secular counterparts, and the outflow from these ideologies to more secular trains of thought is simply not keeping up (apples are not falling far from their trees). The majority of white children being born today are being born in conservative households and often are raised with religious values.

And thus the last bastions of White communities in North America will re-institute racial segregation and exclude anything except whites from living in their communities. These area's will also be heavily Christian, but, of course, like always there will be infighting between various Christian groups since no one can agree on what Christianity actually is. Regardless, they will stick together primarily due to skin color.


However, before we get to this point, there is going to be a worldwide crisis brought about by the dollar's collapse. Every country in the world will find itself in the same financial situation:

- No more dollar = savings wiped out globally. People will lose 50% or more of their savings. There will be billions who face starvation.

- No more US generosity through international aid.

- Global trade will decline, or even halt, for a brief period of time as the lack of a reliable international currency inhibits trade.

As such, it will the World's Worst Depression, and every country on the planet will find itself in the same political situation:

- Hungry masses who need food but can't afford it. In order to control the riots, massive police state measures will need to be taken. Dictators will pop up all over the world to handle the resulting instability.

- The collapse of international diplomacy. Massive international competition for valuable resources such as oil, agriculture, trade routes, etc. that will result military intervention in order to secure these resources for their own people. America will dominate this game, resulting in international backlash against American military and increased acts of terrorism worldwide.

Ironically, America might be the best off after it loses its dollar, since American elites will be the first to see the bankruptcy coming. America will frontrun its own crisis.


Demographically:

With the decline of whites and the return of racial segregation, so too will come a decline of non-white populations worldwide. Since whites created most of the world's wealth, as the whites fade so too will most of the world's wealth.

Therefore, along with the dollar's collapse, population sizes of poor countries will dieoff dramatically without reliable global trade due to starvation. Huge parts of China, Africa, Brazil, India, and Russia will be decimated.

Likewise, non-white population sizes in the USA will also decline without being able to rely on white assistance to pay for their welfare mothers and subsidize minority educations resulting in no new innovation from non-white students.



Technologically:

There will be less wealth, more fighting and war. Does that mean more or less technological innovation? Historically, war sometimes produces amazing innovation or incredible deprivation.

Technology could go either way.


Conclusion:

I base my views off of historical accounts of other collapses throughout history, especially Rome's. The dark ages are coming, and this century looks to be it.

And just because things might suck balls in the next century or so, it does not mean that in the long run things will always be bad. The collapse of Rome was not the end of Western civilization, but instead it was the birthpangs of something new and greater.

No one can predict the future. But it sure is fun...

Quote: (08-06-2012 12:36 AM)MikeCF Wrote:  

Middle America (i.e., white America) will go the way of Black America. More single moms, more men in prison, more towns looking like Methland:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/books/...irn-t.html

Lots of poverty, angry, disaffected youth who turn to drugs and alcohol.

Old people will be seen as a drain and will be resented. There won't be outright slaughter, but when there's a heat wave, no one will be worried about whether the olds have air conditioning.

Meanwhile, there will be a super rich elite ruling class. People will earn their meager living serving the ruling class.

Yes. Future America will resemble present-day Russia.

I'll keep my predictions a little bit more realistic, crazy jumps in technological innovation (this is pretty obvious), the rapid increase in minorities and decline in "whites" in the population, more inter-racial couples breeding, a huge divide between liberals and conservative politically/culturally/socially, more and more random psychos shooting up the public, huge divide between the rich and poor, rise in the usage and dependancy of hard drugs, the brutalness of hypergamy and the need for men to learn game will only increase, women will all seek to fuck top 10% of alpha males, society will become even more feminized, mental illness and usage of prescription drugs will grow, pollution of the earth will have a negative effect and people will become ill from toxins, more people will try to expatriate, a large portion of men will become solely dependant of porn and prostitution for sexual gratification, more men will become bitter/resentful towards women and become depressed because of poor sex lives, rich kids who lived off their parents will become fuck later in life when their money runs out.

If anyone actually read through all that, most of that stuff is already a problem now that will only get worse. I disagree with the notion that there will some kind of "race war", or that the U.S. will dissolve and become a collection of states (although I'd be happy if CA, OR, and WA broke off from the rest of the U.S. I do think that the electoral college needs to be abolished, or there will be some issues in the future, because the country is so divided basically the west coast and northeast are blue states while almost the entire rest of the nation is red.