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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 04:36 PM
I disagree with post number 3 on the first point. In my view, Whites will never be the minority in the US, ever. I am a Latino male with pale skin, brown hair, and green eyes. Quite a few Latinos have the European appearance. What I do see happening is the government getting rid of the census option of Latino/Hispanic in general since it is an ethnicity. Many White Latinos are dead set on being considered White, it means a lot more to them than it does to a White American person.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 04:43 PM
Quote: (08-06-2012 04:39 PM)Samseau Wrote:
Quote: (08-06-2012 04:36 PM)Runnin Wrote:
I disagree with post number 3 on the first point. In my view, Whites will never be the minority in the US, ever. I am a Latino male with pale skin, brown hair, and green eyes. Quite a few Latinos have the European appearance. What I do see happening is the government getting rid of the census option of Latino/Hispanic in general since it is an ethnicity. Many White Latinos are dead set on being considered White, it means a lot more to them than it does to a White American person.
I love stuff like this. It really sends the racists for a ride. They don't want to consider white latino's as one of their own, when in fact they are.
Cameron Diaz, Messi, etc.
Ya, but when I was in South Florida I met quite a few White Latinos and Whites who considered each other the same pretty much. Race is not going to change that much in the next 50 years. Latinos are basically the new Italians and the new Irish. Just like they didn't consider Italians or Irish White at first.
Now what I am curious about and will predict are changes in Hollywood:
I do think as we move forward, more and more minorities will have roles in Hollywood and due to Asian countries rising, Asian men will get more status in Hollywood and get more lead roles.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 04:56 PM
I don't get the doom and gloom surrounding the shrinkng white % of population.
Canada went from 98% white in 1972 to about 85% in 2012. The national crime rate is the lowest in 30 years.
Toronto is about 50% non-white and has the lowest crime rate of any big city in Canada.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 05:37 PM
I don't buy the whole secession arguments at all for one reason. It is not in the best interests of the powerful elite (even the powerful elite in those particular states) to secede from the union. Neither the political leaders, nor the wealthy in any of those states would benefit from it.
Sure, it IS useful to stoke racial fears amongst poor whites about the "browning of America" and imply that that is the reason they are broke. But that is a far cry from actually making it happen. Think about this. Texas is majority minority now, fucking Texas. States like Georgia, Mississippi, Arizona, and Lousianna have white populations of less than 60%. Furthermore, most of those southern states (with the exception of Texas) are net recipients of federal funds, meaning that the state receives more federal money than it gives. In contrast, states like New York, California, Connecticut, and Illinois, are net contributors of federal funds. How in the world could any of those states secede and become "white only"?
Yes, some of the mountain states have a small enough white population that they could sucede and be almost completely white. However, ask yourself this. Why would they? What benefit is it to them. Their strong white demographic dominance helps diminish the racial fears that are experienced by whites in other states.
Furthermore, even if the rest of the United States didn't use military force to compel them to stay in the Union, the economic coercion is far more powerful. The states that could secede are essentially land locked. They have some natural resources, but are not economic powerhouses. A trade embargo would crush them and SERIOUSLY damage the fortunes of the powerful in those states. These leaders know this, so there is no chance of any secession happening.
Secession is a nice fantasy that some whites have when they see the inevitable changes that are taking place in the U.S. and the diminishing status and lifestyle of the AVERAGE white male. But that is all it is, a fantasy.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 05:43 PM
Here are my thoughts on the future.
The western world will continue to see an internal divergence. Tyler Cowen has an interesting thesis called The Great Stagnation. He points out that the latest technological improvements are pretty wondrous, but aren't all that transformative and don't create a whole lot of employment. The future of the working class is uncertain. If we had properly functioning educational and labor institutions, they would be teaching kids usable skills and helping workers adjust to the new reality. Unfortunately, we don't. There are a lot of good jobs in high-skilled manufacturing and the trades, but these days any kid with the slightest potential is told to go to college. This may change.
At the same time, there will be a cognitive elite that will be increasingly global and mobile. If you're young or if you're raising kids, make sure that you/they have a solidly global outlook. Acquire portable skills. Learn languages. Be willing to go where the opportunity is.
Globally, a lot depends on China. It looks imminent now that China will become the next global superpower, but remember all the talk about Japan thirty years ago. People were convinced that the Japanese were buying everything in America, but then their economy tanked and they sold it all back at a discount. China has the demographics on its side, but there's no telling whether it has the institutions to dominate the world. For instance, look at copper. China consumes 40 percent of the world's copper and yet copper prices are set on exchanges in London and New York. Why? Because no one would trust an exchange based in China. China has this financial system where capital is basically directed to various projects by local party officials. It's mad corrupt, so there's no telling what the real return on investment is. There's also no telling how much bad debt there is in China. A system like that can't go on indefinitely.
The other thing with China is the middle-income trap. China's growth is based on exports, but that model starts to break down as Chinese workers reach a certain wage-level and it's no longer as profitable to be the world's workshop. At that point, China has to find a way to substitute domestic demand for exports. That's not an easy thing to do. Especially since China's exports are aided by it's low exchange rate and currency moves, which keeps domestic consumption quite low.
In the near future, I don't think it's going to be a story of China usurping America; although plenty of people will try to spin at that way. Rather we are moving to a multi-polar world. And this is why I disagree with predictions about the dollar. As trade diversifies and as capital starts looking to the developing world for higher yield (the yield on US Treasuries is essentially negative right now), the dollar will slowly lose its place as the world's reserve currency. Instead, we will see a basket of currencies taking the place that the dollar has now. US borrowing costs will begin to rise and this will cause us to have to make some serious fiscal adjustments. The good news is that, as the baby boomers start to fade from prominence, this may be possible.
I've said this before, but the whole idea of collapse doesn't really have much historical precedence. Societies just don't collapse over night. It happens over generations. Of course, there are always shocks. A meteor could hit and wipe out half the population and blot out the sun for a hundred years.
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08-06-2012, 06:52 PM
Quote: (08-06-2012 03:59 PM)Samseau Wrote:
Demographically:
With the decline of whites and the return of racial segregation, so too will come a decline of non-white populations worldwide. Since whites created most of the world's wealth, as the whites fade so too will most of the world's wealth.
Therefore, along with the dollar's collapse, population sizes of poor countries will dieoff dramatically without reliable global trade due to starvation. Huge parts of China, Africa, Brazil, India, and Russia will be decimated.
Likewise, non-white population sizes in the USA will also decline without being able to rely on white assistance to pay for their welfare mothers and subsidize minority educations resulting in no new innovation from non-white students.
I've heard this before:
Quote: (10-23-2011 04:46 PM)Samseau Wrote:
Only problem here is that the whites are undoing themselves. Eventually, as the whites let themselves become totally devoured, the minorities will turn on each other, as they have in the past. See Roissy's post, "The United States of Autoimmunity".
Watch how fast the "black brotherhood" dissolves when there's no more white wealth to feast upon. Back to Africa - American style.
Once the whites decide enough is enough.. even if it takes 200 years... then the minorities will be mostly excluded from white culture as civilaztion rebuilds.
I called you out on it then...
Quote: (10-23-2011 07:27 PM)Athlone McGinnis Wrote:
Everyone: Note the tacit implication here that minorities and civilization are, by definition, mutually exclusive.
Translation: "Whites will wake up eventually (even if it takes 200 years) and put those minorities back in their place. Once those minorities are where they belong, white culture will finally exclude them and rebuild civilization (which the minorities, of course, destroyed in the absence of whites because that is all they've capable of doing, its just what they do)."
Bottomline: Whites are the be-all and end-all of civilization. Minorities are inherently enemies of civilization. White is right...right??
You're now getting a clean, uncensored view into the conservative mind, and you now know why I consider the term "black conservative" to be oxymoronic.
Deep down, these people think nothing of non-whites, regardless of who they are individually. Any minority(black or otherwise) who aligns themselves with a movement and a people that thinks so little of them and those who look like them is frikkin delusional (and, again, I would know this from experience-I was a conservative teenager, and I was also a highly insecure, confused teenager in general).
Either way, I find this discussion between myself and Samseau all to be very telling. Don't hold back, bro. Let it all out. Tell us how you really feel.
...and I'll call you out on it now. This scenario you seem to have maintained in your head for some time is not unusual in its eurocentricity-I suspect that many feel precisely the same way you do.
The realities, however, stand as follows:
A: European-dominated civilization was not the first on Earth,
nor will it be the last. The terms "European" and "Civilization" are not as synonymous as you consistently assume.
B: Non-Europeans are really not as static, inconsequential and incompetent as you seem to think they are.
You (and quite a few others, I might add) vastly underestimate the capability and potential of nearly 90% of the world's populace. That is a mistake, and it will be costly.
Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know thy enemy but not yourself, wallow in defeat every time.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 07:18 PM
We'll see.
Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know thy enemy but not yourself, wallow in defeat every time.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 07:29 PM
I get the feeling that even if "White" people end up less than 50 percent of the population in America, most will still be over 70 percent of the population in hollywood.
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08-06-2012, 07:41 PM
I am going to dip into the racial waters of the whole "What will all the minorities do when the whites leave"question. Explicit in this belief is that "whites" have been the almost sole creators of wealth, culture, and innovation. Implicit in this belief is that this will always be true.
The problem with that argument is that, while it promotes the racial dynamics of wealth creation and innovation in the past, it ignores current reality." I often hear the same arguements for white conservatives I know. I respond with a one word answer.
Asians.
A longer answer is international immigration of highly skilled and entrepreneurial labor from many countries, but with the bulk coming from Asia.
The fact is that when you look at the folks majoring in the innovative fields such as science and engineering, particularly in top schools, it is overwhelmingly dominated by Asians. A huge number of the folks thinking up new algorithms, systems, bio-medical treatments, etc are Asian. Back in the day, Silicon Valley was begging the US to put more emphasis on math and science in the schools to meet the demand for engineers. Now, the big push is to open up the immigration process even more to bring in more highly skilled immigrants. Another push is to open up an "Entrepreneurship visa" which will encourage skilled, industrious people from other nations to immigrate and innovate here, in the US.
Even in traditional (white) boys clubs like finance, you are seeing HUGE numbers of second generation Asian immigrants. I have mentioned before that in my STEM graduate program the majority of students are Asian. The same is true for a lot of the quantitative finance programs. Indians have the highest rate of entrepreneurship of ANY ethnic group in the US.
But here is the thing, IT IS NOT JUST ASIANS. African immigrants are the most highly educated group in the country. They are even more highly educated than Asians, and certainly more educated than the native white population. Go to the Ivy League and look at the black students there. A high percentage are the children of African and Caribbean immigrants.
And lets not forget white Immigrants. A large number of my professors are HIGHLY EDUCATED whites from Eastern Europe and Russia than immigrated here for better opportunities. These folks come to the US with PhDs in Math, Computer Science, Physics, etc, and are ready to work hard and contribute to building this country. Canada's tech industry is having a huge problem right now. Bright, entreprenuerial kids start a promising company and once it looks viable the Venture Capitalists lure them to imigrate to the US and set up shop in Silicon Valley. We are actually brain draining CANADA!
The fact is that whites (particularly white Americans) do not have a lock on innovation, entrepreneurship, and wealth creation.While all of this is happening, we are seeing white Americans (along with blacks and Latinos) NOT going into STEM fields. Folks are complaining about having to take math in college, preferring to major in bullshit subjects. It has gotten so bad that some science graduate programs give affirmative-action style preferences to white students just to prevent the programs from being 99-100% Asian.
This whole "the world will collapse without white innovation" argument reminds me of those chicks in their 40's who USED TO be hot. They will go on and on about how all the guys followed them around like puppy dogs back in high school and college. They will talk for hours about all of the doctors and lawyers that wanted to marry them when they were 25. And after all of this, they actually expect us to still treat them as if they are as hot now as they were before. Even though they have put on 40 pounds and can't inject enough Botox to get all of the wrinkles out of their face, they still ask "Where are you going to find another girl as hot as me." It is like they don't even see the new crop of 20 somethings that are here to replace them.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 08:18 PM
Quote: (08-06-2012 07:32 PM)basilransom Wrote:
Quote: (08-06-2012 04:43 PM)Runnin Wrote:
Latinos are basically the new Italians and the new Irish. Just like they didn't consider Italians or Irish White at first.
Funny you mention Hollywood - I'm guessing you don't live there. If you did, you wouldn't say Latinos are the new 'Italians and Irish.' In a place like Hollywood, the differences between whites and Latinos is pretty stark.
Quote: (08-06-2012 04:43 PM)Runnin Wrote:
I do think as we move forward, more and more minorities will have roles in Hollywood and due to Asian countries rising, Asian men will get more status in Hollywood and get more lead roles.
Nah, doesn't look like it. Non-black minorities seem pretty content with white casts, white heroes and white heroines. Hell, look at Telemundo. Aside from a token Asian girl or Latina (who just so happens to be 50-100% Caucasian...), there is no pressing consumer demand for more racial variety.
Hollywood is probably one of the whitest industries - and it's not for lack of access to Hispanics and Asians. Maybe it's because... that's what people want to see, most minorities included? Just as so many comics, writers and directors, yet not so many actors, are Jewish? It's not exactly random.
WRONG. Many many actors are Jewish. Most of the screen actors guild - the simply change their names and get nose plastic surgery.
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08-06-2012, 08:22 PM
Quote: (08-06-2012 08:15 PM)basilransom Wrote:
Quote: (08-06-2012 07:46 PM)Enfant_Terrible Wrote:
But with more Chinese investment in production and movie theatre chains, it's likely that the investors might use their financial clout to put more of their kind on the big (and international) screen.
Regarding non-black minorities being content with white casts...
I think most people just want to enjoy their movies without too much deconstruction of racial politics. I also think that it has more to do with minorities having less power and influence in Hollywood that their voices aren't taken as seriously. There are some like my dad who accepts that it's a "white man's business" and there's no need to fight it because the system weighs very heavily against "our kind."
I remember him saying, "even if you make a movie about our kind, who would go see it? Nobody gives a shit about us!"
These things combined, you have movie executives thinking that it's "less risky and more profitable" to cast whites.
I don't know the numbers, and I could be wrong, but international demand for Hollywood movies remains strong. They evidently like whites or don't care, enough to not create many of their own films with casts of their own race.
And part of me wonders if these minorities hate other minorities more than they do whites. Given a choice between a white cast and a cast full of "those damn ____," they'll pick the whites. Your dad had it right.
Exactly. Most Latinos spend most of their lives trying to be or aspiring to be white . - consciously or subconsciously
Although they are part indigenous and many part African - in most of their societies acknowledging that is taboo or an insult.
Now some are mostly white- such as Argentinians, white Brazilians, White Colombians etc.....but they are the minority. The majority are mestizo, mulatto, pardo, etc.........
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08-06-2012, 09:13 PM
I think your average Latino in America is going to be different than one in Latin America. While your average Black Latin American for example will view himself as low in a Latin American country, a Puerto Rican or Dominican growing up in NYC is not going to have that same view. Like Italians, when my friend visited Italy, lighter skin was preferred. Blonde hair and blue eyes (in men and women) was a trait that a lot of the Southern Europeans were crazy for, here in America people learn to love themselves more.
Like people criticize Bollywood for showing lighter skin actors, if someone has been to some parts of India, it isn't rare to find people with golden skin like their fellow bollywood actors.
I think there is a meeting point. In America, exotic is okay to a point if it is Italian or some kind of European but the second it turns into being African or Asian people lose interest. Same with a lot of other cultures, exotic is okay to the point it is lighter but not too light. Like light skin is preferred in some Black communities but you are kidding yourself if you think the guy who plays Thor will do better with Black women than a guy like Rick Fox.
I really do believe as we move forward, more and more diversity will come into Hollywood. Like Harold and Kumar, 20 years ago no one would have thought of that idea. We have Samuel L Jackson playing Nick Fury and directs like M Night Shamalyan (however you spell it) cracking into the big screen as directors.
Even sitcoms have love affairs with minority characters these days. Parks and Recreation having Ansari play a role, Community giving a role to that one Middle Eastern kid.
I think the idea of diversity seen in Sitcoms will eventually push its way to the big screens and one day we might see diversity among the Avengers.
That is just my take on it.
What I am really trying to say is, these days you just can't have a sitcom with an All White cast anymore.
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08-06-2012, 09:38 PM
This is a really cool thread, really interesting topic.
I think that something is going to go down between the U.S. and China, be it over our debt, or some sort of raw materials thing, either way the tension's going to hit a tipping point.
I also think there's going to be some sort of war over fresh water. It's going to become the new oil in the future, as it's supply is dwindling. This is a major issue in some areas of the world but doesn't' really get much press.
Third, I think the Middle East is going to pop off and the U.S. will have to make difficult decisions regarding whether or not to intervene. When they start running out of oil and their $ starts running short, it's going to be nuts over there.
I know I sort of strayed off topic from the original social changes discussion, as these are more political than social. Either way, a lot of change is coming.
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08-06-2012, 10:03 PM
I don't see China surpassing the US at all. Look at the life of the average chinese person. It's clearly worse than the average US citizen by a huge margin.
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08-06-2012, 10:23 PM
Quote: (08-06-2012 05:43 PM)j r Wrote:
China has the demographics on its side,
I'm
not so certain of this. In fact, I'm
downright pessimistic about China's superpower run through the first half of this century. In fact, I think I'll add this point to my earlier list:
5. China will not be a superpower by 2062. Instead, it will be an ageing nation with a stagnant (or even negative) economic growth rate, similar to the way nations in Europe are today. It will remain a great power, but it will not occupy the role that the USA currently fills. Demographics will ensure this.
They're going to get old before they get to western levels of affluence.
Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know thy enemy but not yourself, wallow in defeat every time.
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What social changes do you think will happen in the US in the coming 50 years?
08-06-2012, 10:48 PM
feminism will definitely lose power in my view