[Fortis]

(06-16-2017 02:47 AM)H1N1 Wrote:  

snip

Nah, bro, did you know that if you really believe in yourself and talk a lot of trash that you can transcend genetic, mental and experiential disadvantages?

I mean, women boxers are equal to men boxers, right? So why can't McGregor beat Mayweather? He believes in himself and his fans believe in him. What're a lackluster 5 months of training going to matter when the whole world believes in you and the smoke you have blown so far up their collective asses?

[Leonard D Neubache]

We know that all he really needs...

...is a montage!

[rudebwoy]

Connor cannot afford to lose, it will make MMA look bad and inferior. Which it is!

This is an obvious con job and there will be some controversy in this "fight".

Mayweather is retired, so the establishment cannot make anymore money of him. So my gut feeling is that they will have Connor win.

[Banna]

(06-16-2017 09:21 AM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

Connor cannot afford to lose, it will make MMA look bad and inferior. Which it is!

This is an obvious con job and there will be some controversy in this "fight".

Mayweather is retired, so the establishment cannot make anymore money of him. So my gut feeling is that they will have Connor win

Conor is in a win win situation. He's fighting Floyd under rules that he's used to....not Conor. James Toney fought Randy Couture in mma and boxing lost none of its lustre because of that fight.

Conor potentially is going to make far more millions than he has for all his UFC Fights so far combined. He may never return after this fight to the UFC. Even if he loses he's getting paid out the ass. He can easily go back to the UFC and defend either of the belts he won.

If Floyd loses, there goes his undefeated record and he goes down as some that embarrasingly lost to a guy that wasn't even a professional boxer. His legacy would be ruined forever.

I don't think Conor is that great of a fighter and at least 3 LWs he bypassed to fight for the title would beat his ass to a bloody pulp but I have to commend him for his ambition.

10 years ago he was a plumber that hated his job and making peanuts.

[booshala]

"Most people don't know shit about boxing".

[booshala]

(06-14-2017 09:56 PM)The Father Wrote:  

(06-14-2017 07:31 PM)booshala Wrote:  

(06-14-2017 07:27 PM)Rocha Wrote:  

^^The fight will not last to the 6th round anyway. This reminds me of Tyson vs McNeeley.
Connor does not stand a chance, no matter how good martial artist he is, or one of the best in the world, he is no match for Floyd in boxing.

My bet is second round knockout.

Mayweather has never been known for knockout power - with brittle hands to boot - and McGregor has a solid jaw. Why would you ever bet on a Mayweather KO, even with traditional boxing rules? That's the last outcome I'd bet on.

Because (under boxing rules) he'll hit McGregor 50 times for each time McGregor hits him. Knockouts don't just come from hard punches. They come from an accumulation of punches. Ray Robinson, Muhammand Ali, Ray Leonard, Vasyl Lomachenko - rarely won with one punch KO's. But they bust your face up with their punches, until your will to continue is diminished.

The above video isn't directed towards you, The Father. Just trying to bring some levity into the discussion.

A stoppage bet makes sense, even a DQ bet given sufficient odds like Merenguero suggested back in the other boxing thread... but a Mayweather KO? I don't see it. I'm not one to overestimate Mcgregor's ability, but he's gotten to the top of his sport by hitting guys and being hit and he seems to be in possession of significant willpower and toughness. He's not just some crazy conditioned football player who's tough but inexperienced with combat - there's still considerable overlap that's going to likely prevent McGregor from being KO'd.

Having said all that, I think we both agree that Floyd's mastery of boxing are insurmountable in a boxing match. I'll be looking at these prop bets very carefully.

[DamienCasanova]

Initial odds

Floyd Mayweather Jr -709
Conor McGregor +500

O 9.5 (-125)
U 9.5 (+105)

Floyd's got a good history of going the distance, so the over 9.5 rounds seems the most likely to me. I'd parlay that + Floyd ML, for around -110 odds.

[WanderingSoul]

(06-16-2017 09:21 AM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

Connor cannot afford to lose, it will make MMA look bad and inferior. Which it is!

This is an obvious con job and there will be some controversy in this "fight".

Mayweather is retired, so the establishment cannot make anymore money of him. So my gut feeling is that they will have Connor win.

MMA is only inferior to boxing in boxing. Stick Connor and Mayweather in MMA ruleset and Connor destroys him.

Neither is inferior, they are just different.

[Abe Lincoln]

I'm all for this fight. It's great entertainment and drama and I don't care about the downside. Sure Floyd is just so good defensively that it's probably going to be a boring fight. That's extremely likely to happen. But if Conner even bangs him a couple times I'll be over the moon. If he doesn't do it in the first three rounds I'm afraid pretty boy Floyd will figure him out and take pot shots all night like he did with Canelo.

Either way I'm giving connor a chance to knock out money mayweather even though it's very VERY slim. I'll take credit if he does do it and the hope makes for some exciting drama. The tension in the first 30 seconds is going to be epic!

[Teutatis]

Like everyone else has already said, this fight is just a circus clown show put together to enrich these two guys and the promoters. There's no chance Conor beats Floyd, none, it's ridiculous to even entertain the thought. People saying that Conor has a chance don't really understand how good of a boxer Floyd really is, he could fight with one arm and still beat Conor. The only way he loses is if he takes a dive for half a billion $s or something.

(06-16-2017 05:19 PM)RioNomad Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 09:21 AM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

Connor cannot afford to lose, it will make MMA look bad and inferior. Which it is!

This is an obvious con job and there will be some controversy in this "fight".

Mayweather is retired, so the establishment cannot make anymore money of him. So my gut feeling is that they will have Connor win.

MMA is only inferior to boxing in boxing. Stick Connor and Mayweather in MMA ruleset and Connor destroys him.

Neither is inferior, they are just different.

I was going to say exactly this, I thought we all had already passed the "my sport is better than your sport" stage.

[Teutatis]

(06-16-2017 02:56 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

Initial odds

Floyd Mayweather Jr -709
Conor McGregor +500

O 9.5 (-125)
U 9.5 (+105)

Floyd's got a good history of going the distance, so the over 9.5 rounds seems the most likely to me. I'd parlay that + Floyd ML, for around -110 odds.

I never gambled so I don't know how these things work, does this mean if I put $1 on Conor and he wins I'd make $500? And if he loses do I have to pay anything? What if I put $1 on Floyd and he wins, how much would I win? And if he loses do I have to pay $709?

[Corollary]

(06-16-2017 07:31 PM)Teutatis Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 02:56 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

Initial odds

Floyd Mayweather Jr -709
Conor McGregor +500

O 9.5 (-125)
U 9.5 (+105)

Floyd's got a good history of going the distance, so the over 9.5 rounds seems the most likely to me. I'd parlay that + Floyd ML, for around -110 odds.

I never gambled so I don't know how these things work, does this mean if I put $1 on Conor and he wins I'd make $500? And if he loses do I have to pay anything? What if I put $1 on Floyd and he wins, how much would I win? And if he loses do I have to pay $709?

The +/- numbers deal with $100 values.

For -709, it means you'd have to bet $709 on Floyd so you can win an extra $100 in return.

For +500, it means if you bet $100, you win an extra $500 if McGregor wins.

Once you place the bet, your money is gone, and you only get your money back plus the winnings if you win the bet.

You don't have to bet those exact values, of course, so they will scale with whatever you do bet. For example, if you bet $1000 on McGregor and he wins, you'll get $5000 (plus your initial $1000).

[Teutatis]

Muchos thanks for the explanation, that's far simpler than I thought it was. So if I wanted to make $1000 I'd have to either bet $7090 on Floyd to win or $200 on Conor to win. Basically you have to risk a lot of money to make just a little (compared to the initial bet) on the one that has the highest probability of winning, or risk very little to make quite a lot (compared to the initial bet) on the one with the lowest probability to win, makes perfect sense and these odds tell us the professionals are way more rational than the die hard Conor fans.

Just out of curiosity, who creates these odds, is there a bookie organization of some sort that gets together and decides what the odds are going to be? Are bookies required to take any and all bets? What if it happens that everyone bets on the same guy and that guy wins, who pays for all these bets? Can a bookie go bankrupt and default on payments if a highly unlikely event like this ever happens?

[Soyouz]

We have an amazing boxing match this week-end (Kovalev/Ward rematch) and there's a great matchup in September (Canelo/Golovkin).

Since we love metrics here on RooshV, let's just say that the Kovalev/Ward fight is an 8/10, and the Canelo/Golovkin is a 9/10.

Yet, the media will focus all their attention on the 2/10 (Mayweather/McGregor).

People who don't know shit about boxing will buy the 2/10, just like people who don't know game will settle down with a big fat American 2!

[Corollary]

(06-16-2017 08:39 PM)Teutatis Wrote:  

Just out of curiosity, who creates these odds, is there a bookie organization of some sort that gets together and decides what the odds are going to be? Are bookies required to take any and all bets? What if it happens that everyone bets on the same guy and that guy wins, who pays for all these bets? Can a bookie go bankrupt and default on payments if a highly unlikely event like this ever happens?

The odds are created in such a way that the casino will make money regardless of what happens.

More people are expected to bet for Mayweather, so in the likely event he wins, the casino doesn't have the pay out much and the bets from the McGregor side will cover what needs to be paid out with a little left over for profit.

If McGregor wins, the huge pool of money from the Mayweather bettors will cover all the money that needs to be paid out, plus a little bit of profit for the casino.

So if too many people bet on one side, the odds will simply update to reflect that. The house always wins because statistics are on its side.

There are cases where things go wonky and the casinos can lose a bunch of money, but they are covered by the opposite cases when things go wonky in favor the casinos. They take a long view of things, and they're not overly concerned with any single event.

As for the initial odds, those educated guesses created by experts in the sports who work for the casinos. I'm sure they have computer simulations to help them out these days as well.

[WalterBlack]

[Teutatis]

(06-16-2017 09:15 PM)Corollary Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 08:39 PM)Teutatis Wrote:  

Just out of curiosity, who creates these odds, is there a bookie organization of some sort that gets together and decides what the odds are going to be? Are bookies required to take any and all bets? What if it happens that everyone bets on the same guy and that guy wins, who pays for all these bets? Can a bookie go bankrupt and default on payments if a highly unlikely event like this ever happens?

The odds are created in such a way that the casino will make money regardless of what happens.

More people are expected to bet for Mayweather, so in the likely event he wins, the casino doesn't have the pay out much and the bets from the McGregor side will cover what needs to be paid out with a little left over for profit.

If McGregor wins, the huge pool of money from the Mayweather bettors will cover all the money that needs to be paid out, plus a little bit of profit for the casino.

So if too many people bet on one side, the odds will simply update to reflect that. The house always wins because statistics are on its side.

There are cases where things go wonky and the casinos can lose a bunch of money, but they are covered by the opposite cases when things go wonky in favor the casinos. They take a long view of things, and they're not overly concerned with any single event.

As for the initial odds, those educated guesses created by experts in the sports who work for the casinos. I'm sure they have computer simulations to help them out these days as well.

This is fascinating, so the initial odds are created by the experts (who no doubt make tons of money for doing this) and then as people start betting the odds change to reflect how people are betting?

Let's say for argument's sake that the initial odds were -100 for Floyd and +100 for Conor and I made a bet on Floyd, but then as time passed the odds changed for the -709 +500 we see today, would my bet still reflect the -100 (the odds at the time I placed my bet) or would it be -709 (the current odds)? How often are the odds updated, weekly, daily, hourly? And are the odds changing depending on the number of people that bet on one side or the other, or are they changing with the dollar amount?

[DamienCasanova]

(06-16-2017 07:36 PM)Corollary Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 07:31 PM)Teutatis Wrote:  

(06-16-2017 02:56 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

Initial odds

Floyd Mayweather Jr -709
Conor McGregor +500

O 9.5 (-125)
U 9.5 (+105)

Floyd's got a good history of going the distance, so the over 9.5 rounds seems the most likely to me. I'd parlay that + Floyd ML, for around -110 odds.

I never gambled so I don't know how these things work, does this mean if I put $1 on Conor and he wins I'd make $500? And if he loses do I have to pay anything? What if I put $1 on Floyd and he wins, how much would I win? And if he loses do I have to pay $709?

The +/- numbers deal with $100 values.

For -709, it means you'd have to bet $709 on Floyd so you can win an extra $100 in return.

For +500, it means if you bet $100, you win an extra $500 if McGregor wins.

Once you place the bet, your money is gone, and you only get your money back plus the winnings if you win the bet.

You don't have to bet those exact values, of course, so they will scale with whatever you do bet. For example, if you bet $1000 on McGregor and he wins, you'll get $5000 (plus your initial $1000).

Upon further consideration....

I have to re-think the O/U
Under 9.5 rounds for this kind of fight seems highly likely also, it's really hard to call. Only once has Conor gone the distance in a UFC Title match, nevermind a 12 round boxing match. To think a guy who has never boxed professionally would go a full 10-12 rounds vs Floyd Mayweather is a crazy fucking idea. You'd have to even expect some kind of Shenanigans from Conor that could end the fight early. Can we please get some entourage member hit with a shillelagh?!

Under 9 rounds seems a solid bet to me.

[Corollary]

(06-16-2017 10:50 PM)Teutatis Wrote:  

This is fascinating, so the initial odds are created by the experts (who no doubt make tons of money for doing this) and then as people start betting the odds change to reflect how people are betting?

Let's say for argument's sake that the initial odds were -100 for Floyd and +100 for Conor and I made a bet on Floyd, but then as time passed the odds changed for the -709 +500 we see today, would my bet still reflect the -100 (the odds at the time I placed my bet) or would it be -709 (the current odds)? How often are the odds updated, weekly, daily, hourly? And are the odds changing depending on the number of people that bet on one side or the other, or are they changing with the dollar amount?

Yeah, and the odds can change instantly. If you ever go to a sports book, you'll see odds being updated constantly (mostly for active events though). The dollar amount is more important because everyone will place different sized bets.

Any bet you place is locked in, so if you happen to get favorable odds that later change, then consider yourself lucky. But it cuts both ways: imagine you placed a bet on Mayweather thinking he's a sure thing, and then he ends up getting food poisoning an hour before the fight.

That goes to show how much power you'd have if you knew something that other people didn't know or if you could somehow influence the outcome of the event without anyone finding out.

[Suits]

(06-16-2017 03:36 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

His eyes register Connor dropping his guard a quarter inch for a quarter second and send that message to the base of his brain that sends the message to punch Connor in the face with a straight right jab, and some time between the moment his arm begins to move and Connor's face is impacted Floyd actually has the conscious thought that Connor dropped his guard and he's about to go down.

Floyd is literally a spectator in his own body.

[The Wire]

(06-15-2017 02:03 AM)RioNomad Wrote:  

Mayweather via massacre inside of 6. Referee stoppage.

Lets make it interesting and do a signature bet.

Loser has to put whatever the winner wants in their signature for one month.

I got Mayweather. Any takers?

I'm a big mmafan and every iq point in my brain is telling me that Mayweather stops McGregor inside of 6 as well most likely via referee stoppage.

Fuck signature bets, we should be looking at proper bets making money on this thing. I'm seeing +1600 for Mayweather winning in individual rounds above the third.

Trying to break down this fight in my head;

Round 1 McGregor's only shot on winning. Has to rough up Floyd and land a flush miracle shot.
Round 2 McGregor will be eating shots, slowing down
Round 3 McGregor will be eating more shots, slowing down
Round 4 McGregor will be eating more shots, slowing down a lot
Round 5 McGregor gassed. Mayweather is now just picking him apart bad. Ref might stop it.
Round 6 McGregor gassed. Mayweather continues to pick him apart. most likely Ref stopping it.
Round 7 Don't see it going this far just because I can't see how the ref will let a guy with 0-0 experience just become a bloody mess and take unnecessary shots

*xfactors*

*Floyd is 40 and hasn't fought in 2 years. Aging in your late 30's can be a bitch but Floyd always keeps in shape at least.

*I did see a video from a boxing media member who said he saw Floyd spar a couple weeks ago and he looked bad compared to his usual self(couldn't pull the trigger). He noted he absolutely thinks Floyd will win but he's suspicious that this might go longer than it should. https://youtu.be/0mn7vlyAid8?t=1m37s

*Possibility that Conor's unpredictability and youth combined with Floyd's aging could end up causing Floyd to take a longer time than usual to adjust for Conor leading to the fight going over 6 rounds.

[brick tamland]

What are the odds that Floyd ends up broke one day? It would be shocking but for now it's not out of the question. He already long ago made enough to never have to get out of bed for the rest of his life. But, who knows? He apparently spends up to $10 000 a month on haircuts.

[Penta Sahi]

So would it be foolish to put any money down on McGregor somehow pulling off the miracle upset? I have a few hundred dollars in play money, should I just make some sort of safe bet on Mayweather or roll the dice with McGregor?

(06-18-2017 03:48 PM)brick tamland Wrote:  

What are the odds that Floyd ends up broke one day? It would be shocking but for now it's not out of the question. He already long ago made enough to never have to get out of bed for the rest of his life. But, who knows? He apparently spends up to $10 000 a month on haircuts.

At first glance it seems that Mayweather is gonna be like those athletes that ends up broke in their retirement years, having to auction off their memorabilia to pay off their creditors. But he earned over $300 million in 2014/2015 alone, and this McGregor fight will probably get him another 6-figure million dollar amount. A lot of those "broke former sports star" stories involve athletes who earned an amount in the low millions. Mayweather is in another tier.

Plus my gut tells me Mayweather is a lot more business savvy than he lets on. Owns a boxing gym, runs Mayweather promotions, knows how to build hype and market stuff.

So is he doing the smartest things with his money? Probably not, but I'm sure he's done stuff to make sure future Mayweather Jr will be just fine.

[Laser]

To further explain how the bookies operate, they all charge a something called a vigorish (or vig for short). This is a percentage that gets knocked off your winnings that you collect if your bet wins. For example, let's say your bet pays 100 and the vig is 5%. You will recieve 95 in winnings. In an ideal scenario, the casino has an equal amount of payouts at risk on both sides of a bet, so they will be covered no matter the outcome, and their profit will be the vigorish they charge. They adjust the odds as time goes on in order to enticd betting volume one way or another. For example, if one side has too much volume, they will worsen the odds on that side and improve the odds on the other to balance the book.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

(06-18-2017 01:26 PM)The Wire Wrote:  

*Floyd is 40 and hasn't fought in 2 years.

Why?