Quote: (07-18-2016 01:15 PM)chakalaka Wrote:
Half staged. Half real. Probably a lot of traitors in the pro-coup movement. Who were since the beginning. Also some soldiers who didn´t knew what the fuck was going on.
Many here have been wondering as to why the coup looked so disorganised and half arsed. My theory on it is that the coup was indeed planned but the coup plotters were forced to act prematurely, hence the shambles. This leads me to ask a number of questions
1. Who planned the coup?
The coup was the last throw of the dice by the remaining Kemalists in the armed forces who were deeply worried at the growing and creeping Islamisation of Turkish society. They were disgusted at the behaviour of Erdogan, especially given his direct involvement in the affairs of other countries, something that Mustapha Kemal Atatturk was at pains to avoid. The overt/covert support of Erdogan of Islamists like ISIS was the last straw for the upper echelons of the Turkish military and so they began to set the plan in motion.
2. Why did the coup fail?
The hallmarks of the spectacular failure of the coup points not to bad planning but the coup plotters being forced their hand prematurely. My theory is that some of the Generals got wind of a possible impending purge or a mole within their ranks so had to rush things at the last minute. If anything has shown us, if you fail to prepare, then you better prepare to fail. The coup plotters had expected the people to come out but they didn't. Why? Simple. The Kemalists have for decades been waging war against the urban Left, the Christian minorities(or what's left of them) and the Kurds. There was no way these forces, whom you would expect to be natural allies to the Kemalist secularists would come out onto the streets. They alienated them in the form of state sponsored assassinations (Hrant Dink), oppression and attempted genocide a la Kurds.
3) What will happen next?
The coup plot was manna from Heaven for Erdogan. This will give him the perfect excuse to cleanse the state institutions (police/army/civil service) of any remaining Kemalists. This will take him about 9-12 months. Once he has done that, he will move onto the urban Left (Gezi movement, independent journalists, local community activists, feminists, trade unions, communists, socialists, liberals etc.) who will be rounded up, their media outlets shut and others forced to leave the country. In fact they have already begun this by the assassination today of the Deputy Mayor of Istanbul who hailed from the Opposition CHP Party
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...-head.html
This is certainly a harbinger of the wider things to come. The Christians (Assyrians, Armenians) have already been neutralised with the recent State confiscation of their churches and monasteries. So that leaves us with the Kurds whom we can all guess what will happen to them.
Tayyip Erdogan is as unstable as one can get. He will now have free reign to impose his form of meathead Islamist Neo-Ottomanism. His electorate, the uneducated, ignorant Anatolian rednecks and Islamists will lap this up. The AKP are on a high and the electorate are in a stupor. In foreign policy, expect this to usher in an aggressive neo-colonial military adventurism in the Middle East. Erdogan focus will shift to the Kurds within and without. I suspect he still has Assad and Iran in the crosshairs as a Baathist Arab socialist Syria under Assad is the major obstacle to his dreams of further geopolitical expansion. If Hillary Clinton is elected, one can expect to see now strained relations with the US/NATO patched up, Erdogan's abuses swept under the carpet and Ankara given the green light to continue as before.
I foresee dark days for Turkey and the Levant.