Quote: (06-29-2016 10:58 AM)Horus Wrote:
Quote: (06-29-2016 10:28 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:
I admit they might be a bit of a stretch for Australia to invade, but the U.S. would wipe the floor with them. Fancy weapons are all but irrelevant when the untested cowards manning them turn and run for the hills, as I suspect they would do.
And if you tried to simply isolate them then who's to say who's shoulder they would turn to? China? Russia? Cheap energy is power. Expending massive military and political power to isolate a nation while getting nothing back is a poor return on investment, as we've seen in North Korea.
War is hell, but neutering ourselves before our enemies has proven to be demonstrably worse. Our culture is superior, as is our technology and our fighting spirit. We needn't become bullies, but those who attack us should be dealt with mercilessly as a warning to those who would follow.
Of course the US would wipe the floor with them. But due to the billions of dollars of arms sold to them by the US and Europe, and invasion would come at the cost of thousands of lives. This is not hand to hand warfare and courage is not as important as the days when the British led the Oman Scouts into battle. These guys have the ability to shoot planes out of the sky and attack enemy forces at long range.
I don't think an invasion of Saudi Arabia would be as easy as Iraq. And the big lesson we have learned from years of intervention in the Middle East is that we tend to leave things worse off than when we arrived, and cause more discontent towards the West resulting in more terrorism.
Leave them alone, stop buying their stuff and stop giving them guns.
And if you're worried about them turning to Russia or China, well I'm confident that a competent leader (cough,,, Trump) could leverage slightly better deals with them than the Saudis.
Also, I don't think it's helpful comparing the Saudis to North Koreans. The North Koreans, while madmen, are highly, highly intelligent. There is no possible way that the Saudis could implement an indigenous missile or nuclear program like the North Koreans did despite isolation and economic sanctions - the Saudis simply lack the intelligence to achieve this.
Seriously, leave them alone and they will go away.
There are some serious misconceptions about the political nature of Saudi Arabia. The KSA plays "bad cop", but the ruling Saud clan is basically completely propped by the US. It pays us protection money in 3 main forms:
-The most important is in the Petrodollar system. When Japan or China buy oil from the Gulf Countries, they has to sell Yens or RMB to purchase US$. This props up the US trade deficit and helps the US maintain global financial hegemony. The GCC currencies are all pegged to the dollar, their exchg rate has not moved in decades. This system was set in place by Nixon, it is what allowed the US to shed the last remnants of a reserve system and to float the dollar. It's as if the US collects a hydrocarbon tax on Japan and Germany.
-Saudi and other oil sheikdoms buy hundreds of billions worth in expensive military hardware that they don't need. Saudi Arabia doesn't have much of a standing army because the ruling family doesn't trust its people, they would be vulnerable to a military coup. SA has to hire mercenaries from places like Pakistan or Egypt in order to invade Yemen, and they're having a hard time fighting the Yemenis, who are a hardy warlike people. They can't hold that country because they don't have boots on the ground.
US bases keep their watch. If you really wanted to destroy the Saud regime, no need to invade, all you'd need is to pull out the troops.
-As well, US construction and big oil corporations get preferential access to the infrastructure and hydrocarbon markets. Companies like Bechtel were literally built by arabian contracts.
-GCC capital is reinvested in US and UK capital and real estate markets, we get the lion's share.
That's basically why you will hear a lot of badmouthing about the Saudis but as long as their oil reserves are solid, they are more or less untouchable. Those reserves are going to run out in a few decades though, at which point the country will implode like Libya or Syria.