Quote: (08-05-2016 08:45 AM)weambulance Wrote:
I'm not sure how we went from "carrier groups are not completely invulnerable" to "the US would get its ass kicked by China or Russia" here. So we could possibly lose a carrier group to a surprise attack. We're the only country in the world that can afford to lose carriers. Most countries that have a carrier at all only have a handful, or just one. We have 10 in service, or 19 if you include the ones that are short/vertical takeoff only.
The only advantage China has over the US is manpower. That's not meaningful if you can't bring that manpower where you need it. Russian doesn't even have a manpower advantage. The US, on the other hand, is the only country in the world that can actually project serious military force anywhere it wants to, any time it wants to.
Russia and China aren't worried about defeating the US, they're worried about being invaded by them. Within the last 3 years, there was spillage of strategic maps showing the strategy of US naval policy regarding the China mainland, it was offensive. A lot of their moves in the South China sea recently involve defeating that vulnerability. Russia/China's military doctrine wouldn't be focused on defeating the US military, but making it militarily/logistically/politically costly enough to discourage them to abandon their campaign.
China may have some other advantages besides manpower, and Russia certainly does. At the end of the Cold war, when military technology came on the black market, a lot of Western experts were amazed at the solutions the USSR came up with despite having a much smaller budget.
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We generally do not want to spend the blood and treasure to do so, but at least we can, if we need to. Nobody else can.
I know at least 2 people who worked in military intelligence during the Vietnam war who claim it was drawn out to increase the profits for military industries.
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Neither Russia nor China is a serious threat to the US in a conventional war under competent national leadership. That does not mean either would be a pushover if we attacked them, but I think it's more likely my pet unicorn will start shitting skittles than China or Russia will be capable of pulling off a successful invasion of the US mainland in my lifetime. Russia could barely field units in Syria, if you'll recall. Just having equipment isn't enough, it's expensive as fuck to maintain and train with military equipment even in peacetime.
They don't want to invade the US. They want to not be invaded by the US. The US doesn't seem to respect sovereignty much, given it's military history.
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A MAD scenario is a lot fuzzier. None of us know how many nukes any of the countries in question actually have, what readiness state they're in (again, nukes and ICBMs are not just build-and-store weapons), what kind of ABM is available and how it is deployed, etc. We don't know what kind of space assets are actually in play either. For all we know, the US implemented Project Thor on the DL years ago. Or maybe another country did. I find it completely unbelievable that nobody has put orbit-to-ground weapons in space yet. What I do know is the US has had a lot more money to spend on such things than anyone else.
Agreed
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It would not surprise me at all if Obama quietly fucked the US's nuclear readiness in the ass with a sandpaper condom, though. Good thing I don't see nuclear war on the horizon any time soon.
US nuclear readiness has actually escalated under Obama more than probably any president previously.
It began with the introduction of the Prompt Global Strike program, circumventing a previous agreement to limit nuclear arms research with Russia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prompt_Global_Strike
More provocatively, the Aegis anti missile system has been developing anti ballistic missile capabilities in order to intercept nuclear ballistic missiles. This circumvents the MAD doctrine, and leaves rival nations vulnerable to pre-emptive strikes without a retaliatory recourse. Over the past few years, this has morphed into Aegis ashore, and now THAAD.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aegis_Ball...nse_System
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Terminal_H...ea_Defense