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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-03-2016, 11:08 AM
^Lux et al
I'm considering the above proposal from Lux, but I would like to know what people consider a fair determination of the "winner".
What if Clinton wins the vote but gets indicted or somehow doesn't become president. What if Trump wins the vote but some weird insurrection tries to stop him? Is it ultimate determined by the inauguration on Jan 20-21?
I'm even wondering what the gambling site rules are for this.
Finally, don't be insulting. Even though I believe this market is extremely inefficient, why would I take EV on Trump, when he's out there around in the range of +200 to +350?
Only silly people suggest such things. And don't reply with the "if you are so sure" crap all the idiots regurgitate, because I can say the exact same thing back to you (as Malone just did with his 20:1 example).
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-03-2016, 12:44 PM
All of you are polluting this thread. Take the conversation elsewhere.
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-03-2016, 03:09 PM
Are no Hillary supporters even admitting that she is drastically losing momentum in the "polls," at the very least?
Just wondering.
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-03-2016, 10:47 PM
Ok, so no Takers then.....didn't think so.
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-06-2016, 04:24 AM
What explains the recent drop in Trump's odds?
I thought a Trump win was becoming more likely from an objective perspective. And yet, his betting odds have gone from 3.00 to 4.33 overnight.
Not complaining. But what gives?
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-07-2016, 12:38 AM
I wouldn't sweat it. I'm wondering whether to double down at +400 or to wait for better odds. If someone gave me +400 on a fair coin toss, I'd take it immediately.
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-07-2016, 08:10 AM
I think the odds for Trump are dropping after the FBI dropping the case again against Clinton.
The earlier news swayed the polls a bit which affected the betting odds.
My opinion or prediction hasn't changed, but i'm just glad i can get +400 as opposed to +190 a few days ago.
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-07-2016, 08:51 AM
I like +400, but I'm waiting for something marginally better. Already moving money into place.
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-07-2016, 07:13 PM
I am still convinced that PredictIt is manipulated.
They just sent out an email with a "prediction" that Clinton will win and Dems will take the Senate.
If they cared about controlling outside influences on their "academic" experiment, they wouldn't be commenting at all.
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PredictIt.com - Betting on Real Life Futures and Politics
11-08-2016, 06:14 AM
@Peregrine. Where are you betting. On bet365 you can bet on the movement of stock exchanges. Could try that if you are on there.