[MidJack]

Redbeard, you responsible fellow. :-D

[username]

I love not only that Trump won but you guys too half a million from people who thought "Hillary winning is the easiest sure bet I've ever made." Haha. Really grab it by the pussy.

[AneroidOcean]

(11-11-2016 02:56 PM)username Wrote:  

I love not only that Trump won but you guys too half a million from people who thought "Hillary winning is the easiest sure bet I've ever made." Haha. Really grab it by the pussy.

Over half a million with 42 members counted, average win of $12,450

Latest:

   

[Sooth]

This is amazing, I'm on my phone so can't post the photo + link but apparently UK bookies have lost bigly on this.

I was so close to not bothering betting because the process for me to sign up and verify from overseas required my passport, drivers licence, proof of residence, credit card details.

But having read President Trumps and Mikes books, of course I forced a mindset change to NEVER GIVE UP!

[AneroidOcean]

Thanks to those who PM'ed me and others like Neo who corrected me on their actual profit. There was also some adjustment for Canadian or other currencies. This is all in US Dollars. This still leaves us over half a million with 50 winners at this point in the tally.

I've got a lot of thanks for putting this together, but it's only a small contribution compared to others and an easy one with all the help I've received here.

I'm out of state sitting in one of the super liberal cities that has had violent protests recently and I don't know if I would even dare to wear my Make America Great Again hat here due to the penchant for violence in the area, so this is a nice thing to be able to compile.

Now sorted by highest to lowest per request.

[Elster]

Im thinking of jumping in, do the european market bets offer any good opportunities?

[Polo]

Happy to say I've just PM'd AneroidOcean that my Trump profit was $1,225.

I placed my bets using Predictit and also with an offshore sportsbook account that I have set up abroad.

Unfortunately, it would have been about double that amount, but I hedged my exposure at various points. I wanted so badly for Trump to win that at times I feared it was clouding my judgment. I should've had more faith!

Is anyone placing bets on cabinet positions / further developments?

I'm leaning toward Hensarling for Treasury currently at 32 cents - Mnuchin is at 43 cents, but he seems too Wall Street. And same with Dimon at 4 cents. Icahn at 5 cents, an interesting thought but the guy is 80 so it seems unlikely.

State is also interesting. The top candidates right now :
Gingrich, 34 cents - Very capable, but seems to be more suited to a domestic file. Also, might be seen as too much of a loose cannon.
Bolton, 29 cents - lots of experience and seems to line up with Trump's views, but has been somewhat controversial in the past.
Corker, 25 cents - Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Would be great, but I think they may prefer to keep him in the Senate since the margins there are so tight.
Kerry, 5 cents - No way I see that happening.
Paul, 5 cents - This seems unlikely too, although less unlikely than Kerry.

Given all the above, I lean toward Bolton.

Thoughts?

[I DIDN'T KILL MY WIFE]

Polo bro aware me how to setup an account from Europe to play on PredictIt from abroad. I know some persons who live in the US so could provide a proper mailing adress and utilities bill as proof. But then what? Do I need to make all the money transactions through that person or can I deposit and withdraw money directly? What about actually accessing the site, will PredictIt not get suspicious if they get accessed by European IPs?

[MidJack]

The transfer came through from PredictIt yesterday, so that is 3 business days not counting the day I sold and requested the withdrawal.

[AneroidOcean]

Cross-posted from the Donald Trump Thread:

Guys, I have a nice story relayed from a high energy <250 post count member who is also humble and thankful for all of your assistance in the threads. Quoted below and below this story there is an update to the betting tally (changes and the actual list), but first the story from Cuchulainn2016. He shared with me the history of his various bets on Trump in the primary to some free-roll sports bets and Brexit bets (wins) which he chose to roll back into multiple additional Trump bets at various odds that netted him over 85k USD:

Quote:

I have just put an offer on a house for cash. The house is a 5 bed semi-detached, with nice gardens, within walking distance of the bars in the centre of the capital city I live in.
Half of the money for this house is my savings, the other half is the money from my winnings on Trump.
The house is on the market for considerably less than its worth, due to the fact old people have lived there and it hasn't been updated.
I will be able to live in a house that is effectively a mini-mansion for my city (when I have updated it) or sell it for a 50% profit in 6 months.
This is all due to my winnings on political bets, primarily Trump.
I have made the money due to betting on results I have determined from the information I have acquired on this forum.
I have to thank everyone on the Trump thread, those who are pro-Trump for their explanations of how he had a path to victory, and also those anti-trump, for ensuring this forum isn't some left-wing shitlib echo chamber.
Also, I have to thank the members of this forum for showing me what I was. I was always good with women, a zero fucks given personality, but I always thought there was 1 in 10000 like me, until I found here.
My thanks for that.

Shout out to The Beast1 for pointing out my oversight of burneremail having bet in Australian Dollars. Still, a healthy win of course, but we should be accurate (all funds are listed in USD and I use whatever google pegs the current exchange rate at...close enough for our purposes). Updated list below. Thanks to those who PM'ed me or posted in the various threads and also updated me on the denomination of funds:



EDIT (updated image above and stats to follow as I accidentally had infinitejest listed twice):

A few additional things to note. We are at 62 winners betting on Trump and the average win is just below 10k! ($9,461)

Don't we have the best bettors folks?

[Polo]

(11-13-2016 11:13 AM)I DIDNT KILL MY WIFE Wrote:  

Polo bro aware me how to setup an account from Europe to play on PredictIt from abroad. I know some persons who live in the US so could provide a proper mailing adress and utilities bill as proof. But then what? Do I need to make all the money transactions through that person or can I deposit and withdraw money directly? What about actually accessing the site, will PredictIt not get suspicious if they get accessed by European IPs?

In order to sign up you have to go through their identity verification. They ask for a scan of a photo ID and, if it doesn't have a US address on it, a scan of an invoice like a utilities bill (I provided a banking statement) that has your name and US address. The only ways to deposit are by credit card or by cash using something called "PayNearMe" at authorized locations (in the US).

So for you to setup an account from Europe, I guess you would need to get your name on a utilities bill or something like that in the US. Perhaps a friend in the US could help. I'm not sure how sophisticated Predictit's process is in terms of determining whether you actually live in the US / whether your document is authentic.

But in any case, if you don't have US banking, deposits and withdrawals would be a problem. For deposits I think the credit card has to use as a billing address the same address that you provided to sign up. And I presume they ask to see photo ID at the "PayNearMe" locations, although I've never tried that method. Withdrawals are by direct deposit to a US bank account or physical check (presumably mailed to a US address).

One way you could do it, if you have a friend in the US who doesn't already have an account (only one account is permitted per person), is to just have them set up the account in their name and handle all deposits and withdrawals for you (and you just send/receive money from your friend).

To access the website from abroad, I'm pretty sure you could use a VPN service to trick the site, although I've never actually tried it.

[I DIDN'T KILL MY WIFE]

Sorry for the repetition, but I'd like to crosspost my own post from the other thread, simply because I don't know which of the many "let's make money with politics betting" threads is or will be the main active one

thread-59265...pid1448216

I CERTAINLY DIDN'T KILL MY WIFE IN ANY WAY EVER DON'T BELIEVE THE LIES Wrote:

Actually we might want to level up our politics betting game into the big boys league and take our betting to the stock markets.

FPÖ in Austria (basically Trump-like party) is sitting at 1.5 betting odds, which basically means people think it's very likely that they'll win. And that makes sense, this is merely a reelection from the previous one which was cancelled and scheduled for a re-vote due to critical errors. And already during that first round FDÖ basically won. Now they would've had a lot of positive turns of events happening that'll push them over in the "guaranteed win" terriroty: refugee crisis, high profile terror attacks, rapes, Brexit, Trump win. Favorable circumstances for a right-wing party that is against immigration for sure.

Front Nationale's Marine Le Pen is tricky,sitting at 3.5 betting odds. While many people for sure had the pleasure of getting to know the rapefugees and general beurs from the banlieus up close, a lot of Frenchmen are still turbocucks and seem to follow the German model of politics of "this is THE designated right-wing party, and no other party to the right of that one shall ever be allowed!". In Germany the designated "this far and no more to the right" party is CDU/CSU, in France it seems to be the party of Sarkozy. That those seemingly designated right parties tend to move heavily leftward/centrist over time, nobody ever seems to account for. And the French have a weird election system where they go for 2 rounds and the in the second round all parties collude to oppose the Front Nationale, so it might still be a nailbiter.

In Germany, AfD will make YUGE gains in most states but they won't win the Chancillor position. Still, for a "new" party it's a huge slap in the face to the old parties and a wake-up call to the nationalists that it's ok to be conservative and patriotic, you're not alone.


Andway, my big league betting questions for these events is: what stock will move? I've never really thought about the stock market as a correlation to events. I mean sure we know what a Trump win will bring us culturally and in general economically, but what SPECIFIC sectors/companies stand to profit/lose and what ACTIONABLE steps can you as an individual take to bet on those specific outcomes via stocks? Obviously a political win is just merely primarily emotions, but emotions drive prices and stocks so one would have to think about what people THINK a LePen win implies for the economy. Who do they think stand to gain the most from it? Border patrol agencies? Companies that build chain link fences? To be honest, I don't know specifically. Do you? Let's brainstorm

[redbeard]

My 2 cents: I will not be joining "the big boys league."

I am a steak eating, whiskey drinking, flag-waving (see avatar), patriot. I listened to the country and could tell that Trump had a yuge chance of winning, so I put a large amount of money behind him. I truly believed he would win.

However, I do not know about Germany, France, or any other country. I don't have my ear to the ground, I don't understand the culture, and I'm not able to talk to Uber drivers about how they feel. I did not bet on Brexit. I had no clue if they would win, no matter how much I wanted them to.

Based on this I suggest we move on. Maybe I'm not as risk averse, maybe I'm playing it safe, but there are other ways to invest our money. I took my earnings and threw the majority of it at student debt (guaranteed ROI) and put the rest into training courses, books, and web resources that will help me grow as a businessman.

WWDJTD? My earnings will give me a leg up on the competition, and it's my responsibility to put the cash to good use.

[Sooth]

I think it would be foolish to make a habit of betting on politics after a win on Trump. I don't plan to. That's when it becomes gambling.

I had a guy at work very interested about what site I used, etc but hes the type of guy that I would place a bet on loosing a lot of money.

[I DIDN'T KILL MY WIFE]

Guys, I understand your sentiment, I though you have a valid point .... and yet I'd still like to discuss and brainstorm with others of how they think the stock market would move. We're simply in the curious discussion stage now

[Emancipator]

Any tips for Trump's potential cabinet picks betting?

[[email protected]]

I'm not betting on cabinet picks - Trump is just unpredictable when it comes to picking people on his team. Most of us never thought Pence was going to be his pick until he was close to announcing it.

Not betting on Le Pen either. The momentum is on her side (Brexit, MAGA) but she is not charismatic like Trump. I'm not sure if she has meme potential.

2020 seems like a better bet but it's far away

[Emancipator]

I got good odds for Patreus as SoS, x18

[booshala]

$10 matching funds promotion with code: K51ZP2D.

Nice way to leverage a small long-shot odds bet on one of the cabinet picks. $20 on a $0.05 candidate win could be a fun night out, I'm game for it.

[AneroidOcean]

Final update. It's important to note that there are many who chose not to share and at least one member mentioned another member they know who won well into 5 figures (enough to push us past the 600k total) but who chooses to remain off the list. We did an amazing job and even those only winning enough to buy a few rounds of drinks should be proud that they took a risk against the majority.

As I said, a final update, but something I haven't personally decided on is how I will spend my winnings so if you care to share how you plan to spend yours we might all get some good ideas:

[Cattle Rustler]

I wouldn't put my money on Patreus but would definitely put it on Mad Dog Mathis.

[booshala]

My 1099 MISC just came through my email yesterday detailing my Trump bet proceeds... first time I've ever been happy to pay taxes.

[[email protected]]

I won't have to pay taxes on my winnings because im not a US citizen and gambling winnings are not taxable in Australia.

Also...It looks like you can make a decent return if you bet on fillon in the French elections. For months he was only paying out 1.78x on Betfair and now 2.86x. I know it's because of the Penelope scandal but those are decent odds for what seems like a lock. I like le pen but i don't think she can win the second round.

[[email protected]]

http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/eur...-1.2954102

Penelope-gate the reason for why betting on fillon is paying out so good. He may be replaced or resign if he is investigated. This is quite similar to the Clinton email scandal last year...

[CaptainChardonnay]

On bet365 fillon is at +125