Quote: (02-19-2014 12:21 AM)Blunt Wrote:
Quote: (02-18-2014 11:25 PM)jimukr104 Wrote:
Quote: (02-18-2014 10:48 PM)Blunt Wrote:
Yanukovich has continually shot himself in the foot. At every lull in the protests his security forces provide some sort of provocation for events to once again spiral into riots.
The only smart thing that he has done so far is to close the roads to Kiev, which he should have been doing every weekend starting back in December. Controlling traffic is something that he could have gotten away with in the eyes of the West and it would have severely limited the size of these protests.
Now that the ultras are fighting alongside the nationalists I see no chance of de-escalation. I've met a few ultras and these are kids who have nothing to live for except getting drunk and fighting at football games. I'm sure this is already well known to most EE veterans but ultras (extreme football fans) devote their attention into organizing mass brawls instead of watching football. In other words, these guys are pretty hard.
The nationalists will likely continue to take advantage of the relative complacency of local security forces in Western Ukraine to amass arms which will causes further escalation, especially now that both sides are openly shooting each other.
The only silver lining for Yanukovich is that it will make it easier for him to call a state of emergency, with deaths in the police nearing double digits. However, this many deaths will only strengthen the West's resolve to remove him from power and he will have lost legitimacy with less interested observers. Putin will have to come to a decision soon of making a strong show of support for Yanukovich's actions or washing his hands clean. While Russia certainly doesn't want Ukraine to drift west, I doubt that the oligarchs or Putin will continue support him in office for much longer even if this mess clears up, given how he is universally disliked and mistrusted.
Actually the protesters are to blame today..chances are they want to start shit knowing US will sanction . Yanuk might need to threaten weapons shipped to Iran and Syria if sanctions imposed .Russia of course can sanction the west with energy cutoff.
if opposition gets into office with a western agenda.. Ukraine might divide.Regional governors already are figuring on doing so. They will call i nRussia as peace keepers.
You are probably right about the protesters instigating the violence, though I doubt that Yanukovich responded in a proportionate manner.
Yanukovich is likely acting to execute broad directives he receives from his oligarch backers and Putin. He is however incapable of executing these plans, or guilty of choosing incapable security chiefs. As they say, both are worst.
Even if this ends in a division of the country I do not see Yanukovich remaining in power in the East.
As has been mentioned by many pposters.. the police have been held back artificially because Yanuk trying to appease the West. In USA(i assume EU also) NO way would we hold back. I say we because I am a retired cop so I know quite well what we are legally allowed to do and otherwise. The minute buildings are stormed, swat teams would take out the "terrorists(protesters). Cops will shoot at any action that can cause serious injury or death. Molotov cocktails and bricks count for sure, plus the protesters have guns many of them.
once protesters start the violence NO gov't authority would be able to get the cops to stop. unless there is a pull back. We learned in the academy cops don't RUN away.. we tactically retreat. But we can open fire on any civilian throwing a brick or firebomb at us. It is in NYS law.. plus again we answer to the commissioner NOT the mayor , BUT being unionized we can't be bullied to play NICE because telling us to stand down in face of threat or our duty would be a form of corruption. In essence Yanuk holding the cops from doing their sworn duty to protect the city, including property, is a violation of the oath cops generally take.
Considering I am telling you what NYPD cops would do, that should mean something considering without bragging NYPD is considered the premiere law enforcement agency in America if not the world. Our instructors teach at the FBI academy in Quantico, we have a video unit that actually makes videos that other depts around the world watch and we are a combination FBI and CIA. Our anti terrorism unit actually has cops stationed around the world.
My point is-Ukrainian police are following accepted riot control norms. My only fault with them is :
1.that they are being to restrained because of Yanuk caring about world opinion.(when i bashed heads you think I care what the French think?LOL)
2. They are outnumbered and maybe outgunned.. they need national guard( military) to help.This would end things quicker and save lives. Why you ask?
because the peaceful protesters and moderate ones would mostly go home and leave only the extremist groups. The extremist groups are the ones inciting the mob and fighting back, thus making the cops come down harder. If they stopped hiding among the greater peaceful Maiden..the police could finally have it out with them.
Another proof of them being outgunned is look at the death statistics. Cops are in equipment meant to protect them and they are dying at a high rate. Statistically the % of dead cops to protesters is staggering. There is at least 30 times more protesters than cops but the death ratio is like 2-1.
Also many of the protesters died from other reasons than direct police contact. 2 died of heart attacks, one vehicle accident and a few even died by fire..that they started. But probably 100% of the cops are dying from direct protester violence.
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.. BAD analogy! I will let you figure out why.
