First brexit then Trump and now Liberals win. Polls are completely useless.

Can anyone here give me a run down of how the elections went and how they would affect the markets?

Once you get through all the left wing news... (buzzfeed second position in search results wtf???)

Coalition 73, Labor 61

Live updates
https://www.9news.com.au/national/federa...a220334951

Abbott lost cause his district is now mainly under 30s (use to be older person) and was the 4th highest vote for gay marriage! The media keeps fucking attacking him cause he is a religious man! Shits me fucking off!!

Quote:Quote:

They did some exit polling today which found that climate change was the number one issue for Warringah voters and the number one issue for lost Liberals who said they'd voted against Tony Abbott.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...0&ito=1490

His volunteer was stabbed recently!
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...0&ito=1490


I wonder how One Nation went and other Right Wing parties...

I'm hoping for gains in the minor right wing parties since the liberals are basically the centrist banker party.

I am pleased with Liberals win, Labor used to be about the worker, I was just a kid but thats what I remember. Now Labor by default s left wing and is ramming climate change especially, immigration and stuff that University educated self righteous types go for that the 'working man' doesnt give a shit about that.

Bill shortens wife looked alright through with maximum Botox no doubt, standing proudly and kind of submissively behind him when delivering his losing speech.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but God bless Queensland.

“We” won government and stopped a Labor disaster, but there are also some major problems here.

1) Abbott got slaughtered after years of media slander and attacks from all sides. This is a clear message to any prospective Abbotts in Parliament now or future Abbott-like candidates: “Win and capture a conservative base, and we will tear you down like a pack of hyenas stripping off a zebra’s flesh.”

2) Guys like former General and outgoing true conservative Senator Jim Molan were pushed aside by moderate hacks and could not be elected as they were put on unelectable spots on the ticket. Molan spoke about all kinds of vital topics, especially our pathetic oil reserves and defense woes.

3) Australian distrust of the fake news media is lower than in the US. Palmer could spend as much as he wanted on ads online - the media nevertheless got many people to avoid him. Labor’s primary vote should have been below 30%. It wasn’t and Palmer suffered for it, as did One Nation.

Quote: (05-18-2019 09:12 AM)Leonard D Neubache Wrote:  

I'm hoping for gains in the minor right wing parties since the liberals are basically the centrist banker party.

They got smashed, brother. Hence:

4) One Nation at least performed well in Queensland (Malcolm Roberts is likely back) and okay in NSW and WA (and Lambie Loudmouth took much of the would-be One Nation vote in Tasmania), but the combined One Nation/Palmer/Anning/Australian Conservatives vote was very disappointing.

5) Media attention is paramount and that goes into the three major parties. Cory Bernardi of the Australian Conservatives topped the SA Senate count at the last double dissolution election as a Liberal, so he was not up for election, yet this weekend his party only got 1.5% in SA and less than 1% in major states like NSW. And this is the Senate, where these parties concentrate their efforts. It portends badly for the future.

6) The positive spin is that perhaps some rightwing voters were so scared of Shorten and the Greens that they preferenced the Coalition first and the minor rightwing parties after that. Also, ScoMo is better than Turnbull, so his personal support would have helped the Coalition primary vote/stolen from minor parties.

Can someone explain Queensland politics.

Seems Labor would have won but for Queensland. Is it the regional % of population distribution. What’s their views on franking credits, housing and climate change etc

I used to live in Melbourne and I don’t think people even knew who Hanson & Palmer were

THANK FUCK THE LIBS GOT BACK IN


Not that they are good, but they are most certainly less bad than the socialists.

Quote: (05-18-2019 07:11 PM)RatInTheWoods Wrote:  

THANK FUCK THE LIBS GOT BACK IN


Not that they are good, but they are most certainly less bad than the socialists.

This for sure. We're still screwed, just the decline might drag out longer.

As for Tony Abbot, I read a couple of places there was over 10 million spent to oust him from that seat. Groups like Getup hammering it hard. Suspect the replacement will end up being booted next election.

Quote: (05-18-2019 05:05 PM)Que enspastic Wrote:  

Can someone explain Queensland politics.

Seems Labor would have won but for Queensland. Is it the regional % of population distribution. What’s their views on franking credits, housing and climate change etc

I used to live in Melbourne and I don’t think people even knew who Hanson & Palmer were

After spending a few months in Qld this year .I knew the ALP would not win QLD or NSW nor the greens..I even knew Lesbians that voted conservative.

From the GC to Bris to SC I met no one that wanted the ALP to win.
The ALP is not for the workers anymore..You think the CFMEU was going to back the Greens?Great re newable jobs bullshit

The Greens are a inner city party out of touch with mainstream Australia yet all over the media..My inner Alex Jones tells me they are pushed by San Fransico tech giants online who want to destroy the ALP and make the Greens the major oppsition party.

Melb is not viewed well up north by men especially its seen as weak unsafe and full of ugly people..Chicks want to shop there and if they are fat they want to live there.

The Media are a inner city Melburne and Sydney beast who hate the working class.

The ABC was almost crying .They asked the guy running their polling graphics display how the polls got it wrong..This guy was not a ABC type..He said all the polls were now untrustworthy because of smart phones.Back in the day when the people had land lines polls were accurate because people could be rung on their home phones in an electrate .With mobiles this is not possible anymore...They cut the guy off.

Im just happy I get to gloat when I go back to work as I called the LNP win ,Trump and Brexit..No one is listening to the working class who is now the enemy .

Bill, ya' came up short.

I should have put money on the Liberals. Noting how even betting agencies were conned or promoting the con of a Labor victory.

Quote: (05-18-2019 08:23 AM)CaptainChardonnay Wrote:  

Can anyone here give me a run down of how the elections went and how they would affect the markets?

The Stock Market Winners and Losers From Australia's Election :

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...s-election

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-ne...ransformed

Bizarre how Labor was doing best where people wealthiest and worse where people poorest. You would think it would be the opposite

Not ideal from their perspective as the swings towards them were in wealthy safe seats that didn't flip and the marginal poorer seats swung the other way and flipped

If Labor want to win the next election it would make sense to find someone as leader who fits this mould :
- Native Queenslander
- Passes the pub test
- Doesn't talk climate change
- Doesn't derive power from unions
- Singular simplistic message : higher wages / more money in your pocket / lowering the cost of living
- Safe pair of hands, promising not much change

Incidentally they had someone (Shorten) who failed on all of these counts. It was repeating the failure of 1993's unloseable election.

Rudd already had the model, ticking a few of these boxes. Abbott ticked a few of these boxes.

The pessimistic conspiracy theorist would suggest that the Liberals were neatly shunted in because there's a war with Iran coming up and the Libs are the ones who will most reliably play ball with "our greatest ally".

Labor and the Greens are riddled with Palestinian sympathizers.

The polls being so pointless cuts both ways. Either it's an indicator that the polling is biased or that the election results are cooked.

Antony Green of the ABC stated that it's more likely that polls have become more unreliable as fewer people use landlines, where the majority of polls get their data. He also said that in the past, polls have been very reliable in Australian voting. I've followed his analysis of the last few elections and he's been pretty spot on most of the time.

Also it's kind of ridiculous to say that Murdoch-run Aussie media, which singlehandedly got Tony Abbott elected, is biased against the Liberal party.

There would need to be a better explanation than "it's the landlines" for why polls are skewing wildly and incorrectly toward Labor.

Personally I have a different recollection of how the private media treated the Liberals but without reservation the ABC and SBS have been reliably far left for decades now. Labor have been suck a fuckfest since Gillard that it's only massive media bias that makes them seem even remotely palatable. This is why Liberal politicians will be hounded into oblivion for something as luke-warm as "sexual misconduct" while the long-standing leader of the opposition skates along with a serious rape allegation against him.

If the media weren't hamstringing the Liberals and boosting the dysfunctional Labor retards then it wouldn't even be a competition. By now we'd be choosing between the Liberals and the Nationals.

Apparently with polling they used to just call people on their landlines in a given electorate and ask them who they would vote for.

Now people under the age of 50 don’t have landlines

So they call mobiles but many people don’t answer unless they recognise the caller

Aware that the data was less reliable they started to add weighting to account for young people (e.g. UK 2017 election didn’t account for them and pollsters got stunned) but the weighting was wrong.

I’ve seen pollsters get UK 15, Brexit 16, Trump 16, UK 17 and AUS 19 completely wrong in the past 5 years.

Polls are a joke

The media and ruling class doubling down on "climate change" as a "big issue" - this is shorthand for prepping the NPCs to lobby for a big new tax.

They have those fake opposition Global Warming campaign up and running around the world:






They even had one in France with Macron saying that "he can work with them."

No shit - since the globalists fund and direct them, they can work with them. Because those movements are THEM.

Other fake opposition movements is the vegan/vegetarian/anti-meat drive of the politicians who usher in vegetarian mondays in schools or want to ban hot-dogs city-wide. It's amazing that those things are supported by the supposedly anti-establishment Greens and far lefties who don't think twice of why this is pushed everywhere despite disastrous results for most people who attempt this diet.

Haven't seen the entire results yet but Labor even did poorly in Melbourne and Victoria as a whole, I believe. I used to be in Shorten's electorate, he's the most unlikeable politician I've come across, and that's quite a remarkable feat. Here in Melbourne, I heard a lot of "everyone I knew votes Labor/Green, why?????" cries, but it turned out that lots of people I know actually voted Libs or minor conservative parties, but kept quiet for fear of getting hounded by the commie nutters. Many of them were lifelong Labor voters, some don't even look the type who would vote conservative (fags, artsie fartsie types...)

Quote: (05-19-2019 12:07 PM)glugger Wrote:  

Antony Green of the ABC stated that it's more likely that polls have become more unreliable as fewer people use landlines, where the majority of polls get their data. He also said that in the past, polls have been very reliable in Australian voting. I've followed his analysis of the last few elections and he's been pretty spot on most of the time.

Also it's kind of ridiculous to say that Murdoch-run Aussie media, which singlehandedly got Tony Abbott elected, is biased against the Liberal party.

You trust the ABC?

Murdoch doesn't run the entire Aussie media, or do you not count Fairfax, SBS and ABC? Our media is way more to the left than even remotely right.

I have a buddy from Sydney that is absolutely melting down on fakebook about the election.

To quoth “WTF AUSTRALIA. WHAT THE FUCK” and then a series of exclamation and question marks.

Seems unhappy.

I don’t know anything about Australian politics, but didn’t the good guys win this one?

Queensland and Tasmania .Mining and forestry also unemployment and not much industrial industry.

They need jobs and also have high FIFO workers.The ALP and Greens basically told them to learn to code..

Everyone saying Palmer took ALP votes but ignore the Greens and Get up taking away ALP votes.

Its funny when I voted I heard some Melbourne "actor" bitching about QLD....
His career is one step on the totem pole above people that hose out peep shows.

Quote: (05-18-2019 08:20 AM)[email protected] Wrote:  

First brexit then Trump and now Liberals win. Polls are completely useless.

Yeh mate. I know just a handful of people who were predicting an LNP win because of this... but they were still in the minority. Getting easier and easier to ignore the polls