https://redstorm2018.wordpress.com/2018/...er-6-2018/
Early Bellwethers - because polls in Kentucky and Indiana are the earliest to close, you're going to want to focus on three House Races
Kentucky's 6th Congressional District - Republican Andy Barr against Democrat Amy McGrath. McGrath being a well funded air force veteran (and lesbian, I think?) who apparently is turning this previously solidly Republican district into a tossup. If the race is mostly neck-and-neck, that coincides with poll predictions, and Democrats are likely to take the House at a slim margin.
If McGrath looks like she is in a somewhat comfortable lead, it indicates that a modest blue wave at the minimum is likely (Democrats take back the House in decent margins).
If Barr looks like he is in a somewhat comfortable lead, it indicates that we have a decent shot at keeping the House. If he's clearly ahead, prepare to celebrate.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...district-6
Two other races are Indiana's 2nd Congressional District and Indiana's 9th Congressional District
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...district-2
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/result...district-9
These are both 'Likely Republican' which means that the Republican candidates should be leading comfortably. If the Democrats are making it close, that's bad news. If they manage to win these, it's very bad news.
Also, the Senate race between Joe Donnelly (D) and Mike Braun ® will be the first one to close. It'll be a great bellwether for whether or not the GOP has a decent shot at expanding their lead in the Senate, or if the Democrats can go for their best case scenario of 50R-50D.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018...tions.html
Some polls indicate Donnelly slight ahead, some polls indicate Braun slightly ahead. If I recall correctly, the GOP areas of Indiana usually send their results in first, so Braun should be leading by decent margins at first if he is to have a shot at winning. Six years ago, Donnelly's Republican opponent, Richard Mourdock, made a comment that was construed as him saying rape was a gift from God (he is hardcore pro-life). Donnelly beat Mourdock 50% to 44%, but Mourdock was leading by slight margins at the start of the night.
Indianapolis and Gary are the main sources of Democratic strength, so they should go for Donnelly. Donnelly is also running on a bipartisan "I can side with Trump" too, so it is possible he wins some slightly red counties when you contrast the above map with the 2016 results, when Trump beat Hillary 56.5% to 37.5%:
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/indiana
Indiana is one of the ripest potential Senate pickups for the GOP, so it will be a disappointment if we fail to take it from the D's. Braun was an outsider business candidate who seemed similar to Trump, so that's why my group 'endorsed' him. It was nice to see him beat two incumbent career politician candidates for the GOP nomination, but the trouble is - he isn't as charismatic as Trump. His voice is a bit too gravelly, his personality a bit too boring, and Donnelly has amassed a warchest of $ that he used to attack Braun on when it comes to healthcare.
Trump and (former Indiana Governor) Pence have rallied multiple times for Braun though, so that can make up for it. Let's just hope Indiana doesn't fall for the "I'm a bipartisan Democrat who can work with Trump!" strategy, which worked in PA-18 back in April, and which also worked in Alabama's Senate election in December last year.