https://hendersonlefthook.wordpress.com/...epression/

There are 93 million people in the USA out of the workforce.

Thoughts?

Quote: (02-24-2016 12:36 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

https://hendersonlefthook.wordpress.com/...epression/

There are 93 million people in the USA out of the workforce.

Thoughts?

"Heading into" a depression?! It's been in a depression for many years already.

I thought they called it a recession.

But Obama said unemployment was below 5%

The real unemployment numbers are between 15% and 25%, depending on whether you count underemployment.

There's plenty of data massaging done by the government to make current politicians look good.

We've been in a depression since 2008.

We have headed into a drastic slow down. The oil collapse is a huge blow. Wait until housing and auto sales collapse. We need Trump now.

All they've done is kick the can down the road while spending more. The fundamentals of the economy are fucked.

I am very surprised the U.S. stock market is as high as it is right now. I am not surprised that it has plateaued and has been consistently volatile (day to day) compared to the last 20 years. I have some family in high finance. It really feels like no one knows what is going on.

Any answers I have gotten are really just bullshit, no confidence behind any answers because there is no easy answer. This goes doubly for increasing debt, it is like people want to imagine it does not exist and that it isn't even a factor, let alone talks about negative interest rates.

How can intelligent people rationalize this?

Quote: (02-24-2016 02:12 PM)Travesty Wrote:  

I am very surprised the U.S. stock market is as high as it is right now. I am not surprised that it has plateaued and has been consistently volatile (day to day) compared to the last 20 years. I have some family in high finance. It really feels like no one knows what is going on.

Any answers I have gotten are really just bullshit, no confidence behind any answers because there is no easy answer. This goes doubly for increasing debt, it is like people want to imagine it does not exist and that it isn't even a factor, let alone talks about negative interest rates.

How can intelligent people rationalize this?

It's Dutch tulip mania all over again. Everyone is trying to get rich off the delusion, and they just hope they're not holding a bunch of worthless tulip bulb contracts when the bubble finally bursts.

To the forum economic gurus... whats the maximum debt the US can sustain? What happens when we hit it?

I haven't verified the charts numbers but this seems roughly right from what I know:



We can get into the accepted definitions of recession and depression but the above chart really tells you everything you need to know when asked if things are shitty or not. Also keep in mind that some people will refuse to get food stamps/SNAP on principle even though they qualify.

The USA economy is a limp-dick right now. Illegal immigration, outsourcing, and crony capitalism has caused severe damage to the foundations of the US economy. The majority of jobs that been added to the economy are low-wage service sector crap that a HS kid could do all the while people have been told for two decades to take out massive non-dischargeable loans for useless degrees. Despite overwhelming evidence, you got idiots like Sanders saying the answer to fixing America's woes is giving everyone access to a government paid for college education.

The answer however is putting native citizens first when it comes to economic matters and restoring the job base via less stupid regulations, lower taxes for businesses and individuals, and giving priority access to the good new jobs to native citizens who have for all intents and purposes have been living a lost decade economically speaking.

If you are in your late 20s/early 30s today, you pretty much started your professional career with a shit sandwich with virtually no hope or indication things would improve in the future (excluding a Trump Presidency; which is why people are so fired up for it). I chronicled the experience in this post:

thread-53377...pid1223578

For most people, the USA has been in a depression for a long while.

Travesty - The stock market is artificial propped up by the Federal reserve's QE policies - where new money is created with nowhere to go, so they buy assets (stocks, real estate). That's why these rise in price despite a shitty economy. It's all artificial, a farce, not real. It has nothing to do with mainstreet or the economy in general. It's fixed. A Ponzi scheme.

Oil should probably be in the 20s right now, as we have a huge glut and oversupply combined with weak demand. 'magically' the price is still hovering above 30 a barrel.

Brokerages, business news, and government are lying to keep the charade going. I think we have a long way to fall and most peoples' 401k's are in serious jeopardy of getting fucked.

Many of those underfunded public pensions - what funding they do have, is in the stock market. So if the market falls another 10% or more imagine how bad all those teachers, firefighters, police, etc.. will get fucked as well. I wouldn't believe anything the news tells you at this point. It seems they've descended into lying about everything now.

The only companies making money now are bankruptcy attorneys. The oil patch was a source of strength but that's gone now too.

A recession is when your neighbor loses their job.

A depression is when you lose yours.

We've been there a while.

^^ Yeah I have been in cash since the August dip. I wish I would have gotten out early last summer at a higher place.

I only have maybe 10% in mostly decent dividend stock.

Waiting to jump in once DOW is under 12,000 maybe under 10,000 who knows though.

What if Trump gets in and everyone has more confidence? The stock market may steadily and slowly go up from here especially if he can turn the ship around on the national debt and created an annual surplus to pay it down however slowly.

Now if Sanders somehow won, I would definitely stay in cash to see what budgetary hell he would create.

The scary thing to consider is that whatever shitty state we are in today, that shitty state is artificially sustained by massive debt levels and zero (or negative) interest rates in the entire developed world. We should be doing a lot, lot worse, and eventually we will. The music is going to stop and the debt will have to be serviced, to believe otherwise is to believe that pyramid schemes are actually sustainable indefinitely and thus aren't really pyramid schemes. But they are.

Gunz, ammo, and food, folks.

I'm actually pretty optimistic being in my 20's. At this point I'm almost positive that Trump becomes
president, which will immediately bring the collective optimism up of the country. I also think a ton
of jobs are going to be created with the new technology coming out in the next 10-15 years like;
Elon Musk's hyperloop, and nanotechnology.

The people that need to worry are the boomers and super old people. The stock market is most likely
going to have a pretty big correction in the next year to few years which will wipe out a lot of value in
401k's. This will only help out my generation even more since stock prices will be at much better values
than they currently.

When Trump wins, this will be the beginning of the greatest generation ever to be alive. I'm super pumped
about the future. If Hillary or Bernie wins, then forget everything i've said.

Quote: (02-24-2016 02:12 PM)Travesty Wrote:  

I am very surprised the U.S. stock market is as high as it is right now. I am not surprised that it has plateaued and has been consistently volatile (day to day) compared to the last 20 years. I have some family in high finance. It really feels like no one knows what is going on.

Any answers I have gotten are really just bullshit, no confidence behind any answers because there is no easy answer. This goes doubly for increasing debt, it is like people want to imagine it does not exist and that it isn't even a factor, let alone talks about negative interest rates.

How can intelligent people rationalize this?

Pretty simple. It's a function of capital flows. Believe it or not, Europe is actually much worse off. Liberalism -> massive government spending -> Debt Crisis -> Aggressive hunts for money to fund that debt -> Capital flees to where it won't be attacked.

Right now that's American equities.

Massive oversimplification above, but more or less whats happening.

The situation is going to get worse, not better. Trump is the canary in the coal mine and personally if he wins it will position the US to better handle the storm. Europe will be ground zero for WW3. Expect a European sovereign debt crisis in 2017 which does away with liberal utopian dreams that Europe is a paradise. Europe will collapse under the weight of its socialism and liberals in the US will see what happens when you finally run out of the other person's money.

2024 will be the culmination of it all.

No gold bug posts yet?

I'm curious to know why so many people think that Trump will be the answer to this country's economic issues? as of right now it's talk with no proven way of implementing the talk. I'm not pro Hilary or Bernie at this point either.

^ He is the only one with the balls to shore up the budget into a surplus by putting a public spotlight on wasteful spending and going after people personally and their reputations vs. spitting out platitudes.

He also won't be afraid to sick his Attorney General on anyone and everyone.

Quote: (02-24-2016 05:14 PM)Rutting Elephant Wrote:  

No gold bug posts yet?

Honestly, i'd own a small gold and silver position more out of a coin collecting position than anything else. You can use the coins for trading if shit really hits the fan. I personally think during the next big "pop" gold and silver prices will be depressed. Sovereign states desperate for cash will liquidate their gold and silver holdings having prices drop significantly. I don't think we'll have a currency crisis yet.

Quote: (02-24-2016 05:16 PM)Rico Ramon Wrote:  

I'm curious to know why so many people think that Trump will be the answer to this country's economic issues? as of right now it's talk with no proven way of implementing the talk.

Trump plans to reduce taxes and simplify the code code:
http://taxfoundation.org/article/details...s-tax-plan

He also plans to drastically reduce the government. I know off the top of my head he plans on gutting the Department of Education. One can only hope he will drastically shrink other departments of the federal government as well.

Quote: (02-24-2016 05:16 PM)Rico Ramon Wrote:  

I'm not pro Hilary or Bernie at this point either.

Quote: (02-24-2016 05:31 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

He also plans to drastically reduce the government. I know off the top of my head he plans on gutting the Department of Education. One can only hope he will drastically shrink other departments of the federal government as well.

I'm as big a fan of Trump as anyone, but to be honest, there is not much he can do to stave off financial catastrophe. The big items are Social Security, Medicare, and the national debt, and one can't simply magic wand those liabilities away, not even Trump. Everything else is a pittance in comparison.

Quote: (02-24-2016 05:16 PM)Rico Ramon Wrote:  

I'm curious to know why so many people think that Trump will be the answer to this country's economic issues? as of right now it's talk with no proven way of implementing the talk. I'm not pro Hilary or Bernie at this point either.

He also wants to end the use of third-world slave labor, which should return hundreds of thousands of jobs back to the US.

Quote: (02-24-2016 05:50 PM)Fast Eddie Wrote:  

Quote: (02-24-2016 05:31 PM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

He also plans to drastically reduce the government. I know off the top of my head he plans on gutting the Department of Education. One can only hope he will drastically shrink other departments of the federal government as well.

I'm as big a fan of Trump as anyone, but to be honest, there is not much he can do to stave off financial catastrophe. The big items are Social Security, Medicare, and the national debt, and one can't simply magic wand those liabilities away, not even Trump. Everything else is a pittance in comparison.

This is one of the things I think he'll have to back out on. He's going to have to kill social security in one fashion or another. The unfunded liabilities are what will do us in.

Shame really, it's going to hurt quite a lot of people.