Supposedly Greece is going to default on it obligations to th IMF tomorrow. What can we expect from this event (if anything)?

Don't buy the hype: the ECB will fold and find some way to "kick the can" down the road for another year or two.

Also, the IMF payment isn't due til the end of the month.

Quote: (06-21-2015 08:27 PM)Tex Pro Wrote:  

Don't buy the hype: the ECB will fold and find some way to "kick the can" down the road for another year or two.

Also, the IMF payment isn't due til the end of the month.

In the thread about the Italian fund manager not wanting American women, he said that the EU is just learning how to implement a US-style quantitative easing. That's their answer for "kicking the can". It will hold off a collapse for 3-5 years.

I do hope that the Greek economy defaults, and that they exit the Euro. The fact is, Greece, like many countries (i.e. Spain, Italy, etc.) were once inexpensive places to travel, and had good economies. With the Euro, they now have a currency whose value reflects top-10 GDP nations, when their economy is only 13% that of California. A Greek exit from the Euro, and return to the Dracma will constitute their ability to once again manage monetary policy to best suit their economic needs, they will become a great place for tourism and travel, and better suit their own people, when their currency's valuation represents the underlying nature of their economy, society, and culture.

How are some of the traders on the forum planning to profit from this?

I have a friend in an investment group who's about to go for the dollar for the next couple of months against the euro.

I'm about to go to Europe for 8 months. I'm keeping my currency in dollars until right before I have to withdraw/spend it, in case something finally does happen with Greece and the Euro takes a dive. Hopefully by the time I make a visit in December they'll be back to using the Drachma.

The dollar has been in a bull market for some time now. If, and it's a somewhat big if, this announcement has any teeth, it could send the dollar ever higher , what is often referred to as a 'parabolic blowoff' that happens in some bull markets. Look at a chart of the nasdaq from 98 - 2000 to see what this looks like.

Who'll be the first to write "Bang Greece"?

I just met with a good Greek friend of mine who was in Greece last week.

He says the country is in ruins. Most people have accepted their fate.

If Greece defaults, I doubt anyone will be traveling there soon. Most likely civil war will break out similar to the Ukraine situation. Russia is already getting their hands involved:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3f0bb524-...z3dld9joOX

Most likely a military dictatorship of some sort will be established. I believe Golden Dawn may come out of the shadows and throw a coup if Greece is allowed to default. They'll just murder a bunch of left-wing leaders in their sleep. Unlike Syriza, Golden Dawn has nationalistic zealots who will fight for free. Syriza maintains power through money but they're going to run out of that unless they can secure more loans.

Therefore I suspect Syriza's posturing to ally with Russia is just to scare the West into giving Greece more loans without Austerity; let's see if the West will call their bluff or not.

Quote: (06-22-2015 12:55 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

I just met with a good Greek friend of mine who was in Greece last week.

He says the country is in ruins. Most people have accepted their fate.

If Greece defaults, I doubt anyone will be traveling there soon. Most likely civil war will break out similar to the Ukraine situation. Russia is already getting their hands involved:

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/3f0bb524-...z3dld9joOX

Most likely a military dictatorship of some sort will be established. I believe Golden Dawn may come out of the shadows and throw a coup if Greece is allowed to default. They'll just murder a bunch of left-wing leaders in their sleep. Unlike Syriza, Golden Dawn has nationalistic zealots who will fight for free. Syriza maintains power through money but they're going to run out of that unless they can secure more loans.

Therefore I suspect Syriza's posturing to ally with Russia is just to scare the West into giving Greece more loans without Austerity; let's see if the West will call their bluff or not.

Greece was ruled by a military Junta once before, so what you say is not out of the question.

You are also right that Greece is posturing that it will deepen its ties with Russia to scare the EU into giving it more loans without anymore austerity. To be honest, you can't blame the Greeks since this is the only card they have left to play. We will find out in the next few days whether it will work or not.

Quote: (06-21-2015 08:57 PM)Libertas Wrote:  

How are some of the traders on the forum planning to profit from this?

I have a friend in an investment group who's about to go for the dollar for the next couple of months against the euro.

After they revert to the drachma, I'll start buying houses for 10 cents each in usa currency and then take a vacation to Greece and bang as many Greek sloots as I can.

If they defaulted and left the Euro it will be some months before they reintroduce their own currency.

I would say there are things to make an absolute killing on but the atmosphere there will not be friendly and may be very dangerous. Desperation breeds danger.

Many of the youth smart enough or able are leaving Greece or have left. You will find plenty of their women in foreign cities with large Universities in western Europe.

The financial markets are not overly concerned about it in Europe - and neither should we. Even a default is not as tragic as it seems. It's just a fancy word for restructuring of debt and finding another solution. Wages are still getting paid and infrastructure is built, just global banks are not getting their cash. In this case the Greece's Euro currency works as a stabilizing factor.

For the sake of democracy in Europe. I hope they decide to leave the Euro. The system installed in Brussels is so far away from the direct democracy of Switzerland we should strive for, that it shall fail as soon as possible.

Quote: (06-22-2015 02:27 AM)eradicator Wrote:  

Quote: (06-21-2015 08:57 PM)Libertas Wrote:  

How are some of the traders on the forum planning to profit from this?

I have a friend in an investment group who's about to go for the dollar for the next couple of months against the euro.

After they revert to the drachma, I'll start buying houses for 10 cents each in usa currency and then take a vacation to Greece and bang as many Greek sloots as I can.

that it will crash that badly?

Quote: (06-22-2015 03:36 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Quote: (06-22-2015 02:27 AM)eradicator Wrote:  

Quote: (06-21-2015 08:57 PM)Libertas Wrote:  

How are some of the traders on the forum planning to profit from this?

I have a friend in an investment group who's about to go for the dollar for the next couple of months against the euro.

After they revert to the drachma, I'll start buying houses for 10 cents each in usa currency and then take a vacation to Greece and bang as many Greek sloots as I can.

that it will crash that badly?

It's called hyperinflation. Remember when the market crashed badly about 5 years ago when the Greek economy was first unveiled as a sham and there were riots and whatnot? That will be ongoing. The drachma will crash, Greece will see hyperinflation like we have not seen before and the country will be in shambles.

The women will be thin from not being able to afford to eat anything, so bring some protein bars to lure the pussy home. Probably will want some riot gear as well.

Quote: (06-22-2015 04:08 PM)eradicator Wrote:  

Quote: (06-22-2015 03:36 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

Quote: (06-22-2015 02:27 AM)eradicator Wrote:  

Quote: (06-21-2015 08:57 PM)Libertas Wrote:  

How are some of the traders on the forum planning to profit from this?

I have a friend in an investment group who's about to go for the dollar for the next couple of months against the euro.

After they revert to the drachma, I'll start buying houses for 10 cents each in usa currency and then take a vacation to Greece and bang as many Greek sloots as I can.

that it will crash that badly?

It's called hyperinflation. Remember when the market crashed badly about 5 years ago when the Greek economy was first unveiled as a sham and there were riots and whatnot? That will be ongoing. The drachma will crash, Greece will see hyperinflation like we have not seen before and the country will be in shambles.

The women will be thin from not being able to afford to eat anything, so bring some protein bars to lure the pussy home. Probably will want some riot gear as well.

Riot gear? You'll need an AK-47.

The EU will not let one of its member states descend into civil conflict or a dictatorship. Most likely they won't even be allowed to leave the eurozone. More countries are joining the eurozone, not leaving it.

Quote: (06-22-2015 04:18 PM)DjembaDjemba Wrote:  

The EU will not let one of its member states descend into civil conflict or a dictatorship. Most likely they won't even be allowed to leave the eurozone. More countries are joining the eurozone, not leaving it.

There's no way they can keep Greece on the dole forever.

This will be an interesting natural experiment. I really doubt the U.S. would allow a military dictatorship that is not fully U.S. backed to take hold there.

I mean can the U.S. be so brash as to try to install a straight up molitary government in Greece? I doubt that too, lately we have been installing "democracies" around the world.

Civil war and a weak hated U.S, backed "democratic" government, based on our intervention track record, seems the most likely outcome.

The whole idea of the euro and the "eurozone" has been doomed for a while. The countries have just too many different interests, agendas, and histories to all be on one currency forever. Something like this was bound to happen sooner or later. I never thought the eurozone was anything more than a big Ponzi scheme to enable a lot of rich bankers make a lot of money.

So, may it die a peaceful death.

Some downscaled form of the euro may survive for a while. France and Germany are close enough in customs and culture to be able to make it work. But Greece? Spain? Italy? Nah. The Mediterranean peoples are just different. To their credit!

.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-22...rents-zone



Look at how fucked Greece is

EDIT: Italy and Portugal are next.

The only people making out like a bandit are the media. I'll believe that Greece will "default" when I see it because this story has been around for the past (at least) three years and nothing's happened. It's always a different angle that the media spin as a disaster and nothing happens.

Prediction: someone will kick the can down the road for a period of time (like a month), the media will stir the pot again when that period of time arrives, viewers of the media will get caught up in all the drama ("Oh my, what now!"), nothing will happen again, and the media will repeat again. I do wonder if some of these politicians directly make money off the media, giving them an inherent interest in stirring trouble for a period of time.

Samseau, you seem to be fascinated with Greece. Let me tell you that the locals aren't killers or big on violent crime. Also they tend to live with parents,grandparents etc.

The reason is the grandparents think their kids are too stupid to live alone and the food they make sucks and it gets passed down.

Now, even though not violent folks their hate level is 1,000,000X what your average American hater is capable of. They hate each other so much the kids have a hard time getting married with all the drama/ entitlement involved.

You know the books are cooked to get in the euro anyway. I suggested they use a crypto currency backed by the gov about a couple years ago that they could pre-mine and partially pay the lazy ass pensioners with but they didn't want to hear it.

I don't think we'll see rock bottom real estate and if you do you better stay in the house with a loaded shotgun.

Easy poon? Not sure but never will be as easy as DR etc. Greeks are not far off from " village mentality" and could live easily without cell phones just cooking goats and riding donkeys around.