[thegmanifesto]

Any updates on who you guys think will win?

Again, let's keep it civil.

"Who you want to win", is not appropriate for this thread.

Only "who you think will win"?

And reasoning of course.

[speakeasy]

I'd bet my money on Obama. Now here's where it gets tricky, what about margins?

I'm guessing Obama wins it 55/45.

[WestCoast]

(06-12-2012 03:45 PM)thegmanifesto Wrote:  

Any updates on who you guys think will win?

Again, let's keep it civil.

"Who you want to win", is not appropriate for this thread.

Only "who you think will win"?

And reasoning of course.

The US is run by women. The US is not going to elect a dude who worked for Bain Capital... Most people don't even know what private equity is but just think it is "evil", or say oh yeah "that guy in the movie pretty woman"!

Anyway I am placing a monetary bet on Obama, only way mitt has a chance is if the economy rolls over and Obama takes the blame.

[loosewin]

Obama wins it hands down! Whatever you think of him as president you have to admit the guy is a great campaigner. He loves it! And hes great at it. Anyone who say all the republican debates with Mitt; can you honestly say this guy is going to beat Obama or give a better speech. I think the debates are going to be a big factor and Obama is going to win them decisively.

Plus, Mitt does not inspire. Even republicans don't like him. In the end, I think to win you have to rally your base (no problem for Obama) and you have to win over the swing voters in the swing states. Obama is going to win these people because he will be seen as more presidential and like I said he's great on the campaign trail.

[RandalGraves]

People should wager their rep points. Personally, I'm too biased to make an objective call. It's too close and too far out to make a solid prediction.

[DiabloBravo]

I pick Obama to win. I think Romney's mormon faith will hurt his chances.

[rlongo924]

I think at this point it's basically a toss up. Looking at it from a gambling perspective, Romney has closed the gap and is only like +110, so he's about a small an underdog as you can possibly be. At this point I'd go 51% chance Obama wins, 49% Romney. I think what will determine it is how the economy and unemployment does over the next few months. If unemployment continues to rise through October, then I think Obama is in serious danger of losing and I'd favor Romney. However, if the economy continues to improve and unemployment decreases, Obama has the slight edge. The fact that Romney is raising huge sums of $ doesn't help Obama either.
The funny thing about presidential elections that no one ever really points out is that only a small amount of states really matter. I think in this election, those states that really matter are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. North Carolina used to be in that category, but I think Obama conceded it when he came out for Gay marriage. Either way, it should be one of the more interesting elections in a while and I'm intrigued to see how it turns out as we come down the home stretch.

[Kona]

(06-12-2012 10:19 PM)rlongo924 Wrote:  

The fact that Romney is raising huge sums of $ doesn't help Obama either.

This is why I think Mitt Romney has a chance.

There's the regular political fundraising, and then there are the Mormons who will pour everything they have into supporting this guy. They got a lot of cash. They also throw it after things like sheep.

Check out Mona Vie juice. Every Mormon sells that shit, and buys it more importantly, and they have no idea why they do it. And like Mona Vie, Mormon's aren't afraid to pull shady shit to get money or power. Check out Hawaii Reserves Inc. You add that money and shadiness up with the Republican machine and the guys got a good chance.

At first I thought the Mormon thing was gonna make it impossible for him to win, but I think I changed my mind.

Aloha!

[Andy_B]

Honestly I really think it's a toss up.

When you look at debates on this topic all over the internet, it's clear that the Obama camp is MUCH more confident in their guys' chances.

And, in fact, Obama IS polling slightly better than Romney right now (but the long term trend shows the gap narrowing).

But there's other things you need to take into account.

Obama had a decent number of white supporters back in '08, and that base has shrunk considerably.

Meanwhile, if he picks Rubio, he can probably pick up some hispanic voters (though I think the hispanic vote is overestated, because they're more likely than whites and blacks to stay home on election day).

The fact that Obama's had lukewarm relations with Israel means that any Evangelicals who would have been biased against Romney for being a Mormon will grudgingly vote for him to save the "holy land" (ugggh).

So, on the whole, there's more factors going in Romney's favor than Obama fans acknowledge.

But still, whichever way it goes, it will be close, and I wouldn't put money on this.

BUT, if someone put a gun to my head and said "you need to accurately predict the presidential election or I'll shoot you dead," I guess I'd say Obama.

[thegmanifesto]

(06-13-2012 03:55 AM)Kona Wrote:  

(06-12-2012 10:19 PM)rlongo924 Wrote:  

The fact that Romney is raising huge sums of $ doesn't help Obama either.

This is why I think Mitt Romney has a chance.

There's the regular political fundraising, and then there are the Mormons who will pour everything they have into supporting this guy. They got a lot of cash. They also throw it after things like sheep.

Check out Mona Vie juice. Every Mormon sells that shit, and buys it more importantly, and they have no idea why they do it. And like Mona Vie, Mormon's aren't afraid to pull shady shit to get money or power. Check out Hawaii Reserves Inc. You add that money and shadiness up with the Republican machine and the guys got a good chance.

At first I thought the Mormon thing was gonna make it impossible for him to win, but I think I changed my mind.

Aloha!

Your right.

Mormons have tons of CASH. Unbelievable amounts.

Hell, wouldn't you if you never drank?

Sh*t, if I never spent money on drinking or smoking, I would probably have more money than Mitt Romney right now.

Hell, if I never ever drank, I would probably hire Mitt Romney to do my laundry.

[durangotang]

Prediction: Romney will win Utah. As for the other 49 states, if the stock market is up Obama wins. If the stock market takes a dive Romney wins. These aren't just my opinions, but Gerald Celente, if anyone is interested in checking him out. He doesn't think the market will be down, so he is forecasting an Obama victory.

I also think if Obama escalates military conflict somewhere, Obama probably wins (unless the stock market too down).

It is very difficult to oust a sitting president. The last time was 1992 with G.W. Bush and Clinton, twenty years ago. Before that, it was 1982 with Reagan and Carter.

As for my desires, Ron Paul dropped out, and I really don't think there is much of a difference between Romney or Obama, but I do think a second term Obama could do A LOT more damage than a first term Romney (with the exception of a possible war in Iran). They are both such liars it's impossible to know the truth.

[kerouac]

Bain Capital.



For most Americans, a big concern is jobs going overseas. Obama's campaign people are going to make good use of Romney's past at Bain Capital.

I don't think Romney has very much going for him, unless you listen to people who didn't like Obama from day one.

[assman]

I think the socialist will lose if the economy continues to stumble. Otherwise he will win and accelerate this nation's demise.