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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-12-2012, 03:45 PM
Any updates on who you guys think will win?
Again, let's keep it civil.
"Who you want to win", is not appropriate for this thread.
Only "who you think will win"?
And reasoning of course.
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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-12-2012, 03:50 PM
I'd bet my money on Obama. Now here's where it gets tricky, what about margins?
I'm guessing Obama wins it 55/45.
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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-12-2012, 06:21 PM
Obama wins it hands down! Whatever you think of him as president you have to admit the guy is a great campaigner. He loves it! And hes great at it. Anyone who say all the republican debates with Mitt; can you honestly say this guy is going to beat Obama or give a better speech. I think the debates are going to be a big factor and Obama is going to win them decisively.
Plus, Mitt does not inspire. Even republicans don't like him. In the end, I think to win you have to rally your base (no problem for Obama) and you have to win over the swing voters in the swing states. Obama is going to win these people because he will be seen as more presidential and like I said he's great on the campaign trail.
Rob
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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-12-2012, 07:17 PM
People should wager their rep points. Personally, I'm too biased to make an objective call. It's too close and too far out to make a solid prediction.
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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-12-2012, 07:31 PM
I pick Obama to win. I think Romney's mormon faith will hurt his chances.
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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-12-2012, 10:19 PM
I think at this point it's basically a toss up. Looking at it from a gambling perspective, Romney has closed the gap and is only like +110, so he's about a small an underdog as you can possibly be. At this point I'd go 51% chance Obama wins, 49% Romney. I think what will determine it is how the economy and unemployment does over the next few months. If unemployment continues to rise through October, then I think Obama is in serious danger of losing and I'd favor Romney. However, if the economy continues to improve and unemployment decreases, Obama has the slight edge. The fact that Romney is raising huge sums of $ doesn't help Obama either.
The funny thing about presidential elections that no one ever really points out is that only a small amount of states really matter. I think in this election, those states that really matter are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio, Florida, and Virginia. North Carolina used to be in that category, but I think Obama conceded it when he came out for Gay marriage. Either way, it should be one of the more interesting elections in a while and I'm intrigued to see how it turns out as we come down the home stretch.
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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-13-2012, 08:52 AM
Honestly I really think it's a toss up.
When you look at debates on this topic all over the internet, it's clear that the Obama camp is MUCH more confident in their guys' chances.
And, in fact, Obama IS polling slightly better than Romney right now (but the long term trend shows the gap narrowing).
But there's other things you need to take into account.
Obama had a decent number of white supporters back in '08, and that base has shrunk considerably.
Meanwhile, if he picks Rubio, he can probably pick up some hispanic voters (though I think the hispanic vote is overestated, because they're more likely than whites and blacks to stay home on election day).
The fact that Obama's had lukewarm relations with Israel means that any Evangelicals who would have been biased against Romney for being a Mormon will grudgingly vote for him to save the "holy land" (ugggh).
So, on the whole, there's more factors going in Romney's favor than Obama fans acknowledge.
But still, whichever way it goes, it will be close, and I wouldn't put money on this.
BUT, if someone put a gun to my head and said "you need to accurately predict the presidential election or I'll shoot you dead," I guess I'd say Obama.
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012 Election: Who do you think will win?
06-13-2012, 09:27 PM
I think the socialist will lose if the economy continues to stumble. Otherwise he will win and accelerate this nation's demise.