[MANic]

Dulce is not trolling nor wrong. Though crpto is analogous to just about any industry atm. The fundamentals of our economic system are corrupted to the extent where everything is just one event away from collapse. No one has the prescience to foretell when it will happen either. Collapse could be in our lifetime or not though I sincerely doubt cypto will endure in such eventuality. 2008 was chaos-lite when shit really hits the fan, intrinsic value will be king.

[RichieP]

Pssst... there's no "intrinsic value" in anything

There is only ever "what people value".

[MANic]

^an academic technicality.
I do mean to say items with an inherent functionality will be king. Fuel, amo, food,clothing etc.

[Samseau]

(03-06-2018 11:21 AM)RichieP Wrote:  

Pssst... there's no "intrinsic value" in anything

There is only ever "what people value".

People are value. People value things intrinsically valuable to them: food, water, shelter, sex, transportation, energy, etc.

So there is definitely such a thing as intrinsic value. Nomenclature arguments are silly.

[Valentine]

People are focusing way too much on distributed ledger technology (DLT) as currency and not enough on it's utility to organisations e.g. smart contracts, transparent accounting, smart logistics, distributed identity, etc. Sure this stuff is still in it's early stages but it's either not possible via traditional methods or it's cheaper and more secure. The main hurdle that's left to overcome is scalability but proof of stake and sharding for example have been making good progress.

If a recession happens tomorrow who knows what'll happen, perhaps people will speculate and buy simply based on the future utility or it could stay crashed. When the technology development catches up with the hype though I can guarantee you that in a few years this question won't exist because DLT will be so deeply ingrained into our economic infrastructure.

[RichieP]

(03-07-2018 02:00 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

(03-06-2018 11:21 AM)RichieP Wrote:  

Pssst... there's no "intrinsic value" in anything

There is only ever "what people value".

People are value. People value things intrinsically valuable to them: food, water, shelter, sex, transportation, energy, etc.

So there is definitely such a thing as intrinsic value. Nomenclature arguments are silly.

Basic needs. And those things fluctuate in value and price depending on supply, demand, culture, expectations of future conditions.

This concept of "intrinsic value" is highly flawed, especially when applied to assets.

It implies some goods or commodities have some inherent price stability due to their utlity, and misses the fact that the price of anything can fluctate wildly due to supply, demand and expectations.

[bgbusiness]

Nvm. I change my mind. My initial thoughts were probably right.

If depression happens, dollar collapses and this time it can really get destroyed as the establishment or the stability of dollar has been going down every single year.

Then people will flock to cryptocurrency, the prices will skyrocket.

I watched the whole thing, but listen to the last five minutes where the Winklevoss Twins (billionaires) and the Asian dude talks. Makes sense for me. These people know what they are talking about imo.

[Gas]

If people flock to crypto it will almost all go into Bitcoin. I imagine most alts will die.

[Bushido]

I doubt we are going to see another 2008/2009 in our lifetimes, but crypto will probably be hit even harder than the stock market during the next recession/market crash.

Most people are in it for speculation, just like they were in 1999 (or whenever, name your asset bubble). I'm not saying YOU are speculating. But MOST people in crypto are. Fact.

So highly speculative investments like crypto will be badly hurt in a recession. Shitty overvalued stocks will be hurt too of course. But that's besides the point.

Crypto = No cashflow, capital gains
Stocks/Bonds = Cashflows + capital gains

Crypto isn't an "asset" in the traditional sense of the word. No cashflow. No return until you sell.

Say Bitcoin goes to $2000 bucks in a few weeks from now.
Gonna hold? Of course you are. You believe in it.
Problem is, holding is going to suck hard.
It's much easier to hold a stock that has lost value. You still get some returns at least.
Assuming you own a decent company, you can hold until the market improves (i.e. in years and years) and receive compensation in the meantime.
Your capital does absolutely nothing sitting there in a cryptocurrency.
Factor in inflation, opportunity costs. You are losing money every day in a crash-type scenario.

Given the above, I honestly don't know how people can sleep with 6 figures in bitcoin.

Now, the day that you can use crypto to buy real assets (i.e. ones that produce future cashflows) will be a lot more interesting. There's no absolute reason why stocks and bonds should only be bought in fiat is there?

[Bushido]

Also one more thing. You didn't "make X profit" unless you sold already.
Obvious fucking point that people seem to forget.

[SamuelBRoberts]

(03-15-2018 10:56 AM)Bushido Wrote:  

I doubt we are going to see another 2008/2009 in our lifetimes, but crypto will probably be hit even harder than the stock market during the next recession/market crash.

Most people are in it for speculation, just like they were in 1999 (or whenever, name your asset bubble). I'm not saying YOU are speculating. But MOST people in crypto are. Fact.

So highly speculative investments like crypto will be badly hurt in a recession. Shitty overvalued stocks will be hurt too of course. But that's besides the point.

Crypto = No cashflow, capital gains
Stocks/Bonds = Cashflows + capital gains

Crypto isn't an "asset" in the traditional sense of the word. No cashflow. No return until you sell.

Say Bitcoin goes to $2000 bucks in a few weeks from now.
Gonna hold? Of course you are. You believe in it.
Problem is, holding is going to suck hard.
It's much easier to hold a stock that has lost value. You still get some returns at least.
Assuming you own a decent company, you can hold until the market improves (i.e. in years and years) and receive compensation in the meantime.
Your capital does absolutely nothing sitting there in a cryptocurrency.
Factor in inflation, opportunity costs. You are losing money every day in a crash-type scenario.

Given the above, I honestly don't know how people can sleep with 6 figures in bitcoin.

Now, the day that you can use crypto to buy real assets (i.e. ones that produce future cashflows) will be a lot more interesting. There's no absolute reason why stocks and bonds should only be bought in fiat is there?

Eh, I dunno. There's tons of cryptos that pay passive income, and tons of stocks that don't. (I think most stocks don't actually.)
That said I agree that cryptos will tank in a market crash. For every one person who's a true believer there's ten or more who are just in it for the cash.

(03-15-2018 11:06 AM)Bushido Wrote:  

Also one more thing. You didn't "make X profit" unless you sold already.
Obvious fucking point that people seem to forget.

Who's forgetting this?

[speculator]

I will be a contrarian here and claim that cryptoasset valuations will skyrocket in SHTF scenarios. They are intangible, easily transferable, and are in most part very private. As an example, read the following article about white population in South Africa:

https://news.bitcoin.com/south-african-g...certainty/

"The popularity of bitcoin appears to be continuing to grow in South Africa despite the recent declining performance of the leading cryptocurrency.

As of this writing, South African Google searches are the highest in proportion to the size of searches generated by high search-volume nations, with the average number of monthly South African searches for “bitcoin” over the last 12 months currently estimated at between 100,000 and 1,000,000. South African peer-to-peer bitcoin trade volume also appears to be rising, with weekly rand-value of localbitcoins trading exceeding 20,000,000 (approximately $1.7 million USD) for the first time since January this past week."

The communist regime can take away your personal and real property but won't be able to do so with your cryptoassets. With less volatility, cryptoassets will become the safest place to park your capital. They can seize everything they can lay their hands on.

[Ice Man]

(03-15-2018 01:14 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

Who's forgetting this?

At least half of everyone who's in crypto, in my observation, including many in the crypto threads here.

It's a very simple and obvious concept to some, but for some reason crypto has turned many smart people to retards. It is very strange honestly.

[RichieP]

How much money has been invested in crypto?

Not the market cap.

But how many $USD have actually been sunk into the market?

Edit: Found an estimate frm JP Morgan from Dec 2017. It was around $10 billion then:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-0...coin-bears

~$10 billion USD flowed to crypto so far. That's eye-opening.

[WomenLuvDeez]

(03-14-2018 11:07 PM)Gas Wrote:  

If people flock to crypto it will almost all go into Bitcoin. I imagine most alts will die.

Bitcoin is pretty much the gold standard of crypto's. Its always held the highest amount of dominance in the huge market cap since it started. Bitcoin is gonna moon to all new highs this year. Does that mean their won't be dips and corrections? If you know anything about markets, corrections are GOOD for the long term of the market. Remember more volatility more money

[SamuelBRoberts]

I would like to see it go to all-time highs but I'm not feeling very confident right about now.

[Celestial]

It is almost all speculation powering the value of Bitcoin. There is no reason to believe it won't crash to 1000 or even under it (although I think that's unlikely in the near term).

If you believe the "fair value" of Bitcoin is 5k, 10k or higher, then even though it might get there in the long term (assuming efficient markets), it is possible for wild swings/high variance to send the value crashing before reaching there. I don't believe the fair value of Bitcoin can be calculated though, it's unknown.

In the 1990's there was a famous hedge fund called Long Term Capital Management (LTCM), where they had some of the top investors of the time in the fund (including the guys who came up with the method for valuing derivatives, Black-Scholes). One of their assumptions was that assets would go to their fair value in a reasonable amount of time, hence it was a safe bet if you knew the fair value. Long story short, the fund blew up in 1998 when several unforeseen events happened, such as Russia defaulting on their debt. The point being, there is nothing saying some major country won't ban crypto trading, exchanges won't get hacked or things like that which can crash the value.

I don't understand how people can rest easy with mortgages and their majority savings in Bitcoin. Extremely high risk compared to traditional assets, stocks are much safer (like Bushido mentioned).

[SamuelBRoberts]

(03-24-2018 12:24 AM)Celestial Wrote:  

I don't understand how people can rest easy with mortgages and their majority savings in Bitcoin. Extremely high risk compared to traditional assets, stocks are much safer (like Bushido mentioned).

I've never met someone who did this. If I did I would tell them to stop, immediately.

[WomenLuvDeez]

(03-24-2018 12:24 AM)Celestial Wrote:  

I don't understand how people can rest easy with mortgages and their majority savings in Bitcoin. Extremely high risk compared to traditional assets, stocks are much safer (like Bushido mentioned).

You must not understand how crypto works compared to the stock markets or you are a older person that just refuses to learn about the new way to make easy money.


Also on the "fair value", its worth whatever someone will pay for it but you also have to take into account that it has always dominated the crypto world and is pretty much the gold standard of all crypto's.

[Celestial]

(03-24-2018 12:24 PM)WomenLuvDeez Wrote:  

(03-24-2018 12:24 AM)Celestial Wrote:  

I don't understand how people can rest easy with mortgages and their majority savings in Bitcoin. Extremely high risk compared to traditional assets, stocks are much safer (like Bushido mentioned).

You must not understand how crypto works compared to the stock markets or you are a older person that just refuses to learn about the new way to make easy money.


Also on the "fair value", its worth whatever someone will pay for it but you also have to take into account that it has always dominated the crypto world and is pretty much the gold standard of all crypto's.

Just because a crypto has always dominated doesn't mean it will continue to dominate. I personally think it will remain at the top, but would not be surprised if Ethereum or another surpasses it.

Also I'm not old, and I do understand how crypto works. This kind of mindset of making easy money happens every 5-10 years, people thought this way in 2007 (sub prime mortgage crisis), 2000 (dot com bubble) etc. I'm not trying to scaremonger here, but these crypto currencies should certainly be regarded as risky investments. You cannot point to your average cryptocurrency and say that it's backed by a company that owns property, makes money, pays dividends, etc.

[SamuelBRoberts]

(03-24-2018 12:24 PM)WomenLuvDeez Wrote:  

You must not understand how crypto works compared to the stock markets or you are a older person that just refuses to learn about the new way to make easy money.

Do you have the majority of your net worth in crypto? When did you buy in?

[[email protected]]

(03-24-2018 01:49 PM)Celestial Wrote:  

You cannot point to your average cryptocurrency and say that it's backed by a company that owns property, makes money, pays dividends, etc.

Many staking cryptocurrencies like NEO already pay dividends you can freely sell out for fiat at the market rate. This is also becoming a common trend with BTC forks, ETH proof of stake, and so on.

When you try to say that conventional stocks are backed by companies and property what it boils down to is these things are ultimately backed by fiat and government. Companies have a legal obligation to pay stock holders fiat and the government enforces it and at least holds the company accountable. Central bankers have the final say on the purchasing power of your fiat.

It's true that crypto is not backed by any government and no company is obligated to give you fiat in exchange for it. When you think about it, it is clear that crypto and fiat are just changing hands with regular buyers and sellers freely exchanging at the market rate. It's also true that as of this moment almost no government will hold start ups and companies accountable to their cryptocurremcy buyers.

So then, what holds cryptocurrencies accountable?

Mathematics. Immutable blockchain technology where code is law and where there is no central point of failure. It's backed by a network of people around the world that use it and believe in its value. There is no central bank or government that can decide what it's value is.

The question becomes, do you trust central bankers and governments more than mathematics and code?

[SamuelBRoberts]

We may be 'bout to find out what happens in a recession.

[Bigfoot]

(03-25-2018 02:38 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

We may be 'bout to find out what happens in a recession.

in my estimations, Q3 2019 ; 2018 should still make it through

[Teutatis]

(05-27-2018 08:41 AM)Bigfoot Wrote:  

(03-25-2018 02:38 AM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

We may be 'bout to find out what happens in a recession.

in my estimations, Q3 2019 ; 2018 should still make it through

Nice, close enough date that may make some idiot that takes you seriously apprehensive but far enough that no one will remember it when nothing happens next year.

"My estimates" Haha

(03-24-2018 12:24 PM)WomenLuvDeez Wrote:  

You must not understand how crypto works compared to the stock markets or you are a older person that just refuses to learn about the new way to make easy money.

There's a ton of retardation on this thread but this... Oh boy, there really is one born every minute.

(03-16-2018 03:55 AM)Ice Man Wrote:  

(03-15-2018 01:14 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:  

Who's forgetting this?

At least half of everyone who's in crypto, in my observation, including many in the crypto threads here.

It's a very simple and obvious concept to some, but for some reason crypto has turned many smart people to retards. It is very strange honestly.

And we can see several examples of this self imposed retardation on this thread and several other crypto hangouts all over the web. The blind leading the blind, all blinded by greed.