If we have a recession similar to what we experienced in 2008/2009, what happens to Bitcoin? Does the price moon because it's a better store of value than dollars, or does it crash because it's such a speculative asset?
What happens in a recession?
Just gonna take a stab at this. I'm, admittedly, not a crypto guy.
I am a bit of a finance guy. Maybe I can help you.
You're going to get exactly what you bought. You bought nothing. It has no intrinsic value. You gave it false value by hyping it on the internet or your contemporaries did the same.
The only reason it is worth anything is because you paid for it. It's ridiculous. Think about it. You're hoping you'll sell it before it devaluates to nothing, which is what it's worth if you'll, as a collective, quit paying for it.
How do you possibly think this thing that someone just made up is going to evaluate? Same thing as the gold/silver market.... It's so valuable, that you buy it with cash. Wait? What? What? I have to pay for this "asset" with cash? Why? It's much more valuable than cash, right? That's why I'm buying it as an investment.?.?.? This makes no sense.
You're going to lose your pants if you don't get out before the next guy. That's what's going to happen.
I am a bit of a finance guy. Maybe I can help you.
You're going to get exactly what you bought. You bought nothing. It has no intrinsic value. You gave it false value by hyping it on the internet or your contemporaries did the same.
The only reason it is worth anything is because you paid for it. It's ridiculous. Think about it. You're hoping you'll sell it before it devaluates to nothing, which is what it's worth if you'll, as a collective, quit paying for it.
How do you possibly think this thing that someone just made up is going to evaluate? Same thing as the gold/silver market.... It's so valuable, that you buy it with cash. Wait? What? What? I have to pay for this "asset" with cash? Why? It's much more valuable than cash, right? That's why I'm buying it as an investment.?.?.? This makes no sense.
You're going to lose your pants if you don't get out before the next guy. That's what's going to happen.
Allow me to qualify... I didn't mean that gold and silver have no intrinsic value. I just meant that it has to be bought with cash. You're buying intrinsic value, but you still have to use money.
You won't get far by talking about the intrinsic value of crypto. I can ask you what is the intrinsic value of fiat and your argument falls apart.
The only reason fiat has "value" is because the government forced it on it's citizens with a gun. Think about it. It's ridiculous. You gave it false value because everyone else was ignorant or complicit in central banks being able to control the supply and call it money. I mean, how can you expect me to believe this paper/plastic with pictures and numbers on it is of equal value to the food in my fridge or my house. You, sir, are going to lose your pants if you don't get rid of your fiat money for something tangible before it gets printed into worthlessness because that's what's going to happen.
The only reason fiat has "value" is because the government forced it on it's citizens with a gun. Think about it. It's ridiculous. You gave it false value because everyone else was ignorant or complicit in central banks being able to control the supply and call it money. I mean, how can you expect me to believe this paper/plastic with pictures and numbers on it is of equal value to the food in my fridge or my house. You, sir, are going to lose your pants if you don't get rid of your fiat money for something tangible before it gets printed into worthlessness because that's what's going to happen.
Quote: (02-22-2018 03:32 AM)Dulceácido Wrote:
Allow me to qualify... I didn't mean that gold and silver have no intrinsic value. I just meant that it has to be bought with cash. You're buying intrinsic value, but you still have to use money.
![[Image: gtfo.gif]](https://rooshvforum.network/images/smilies/new/gtfo.gif)
Get out you no-coiner.
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I'm not a fan of the word intrinsic value - things have whatever value people ascribe to them in the given circumstances. Things have a fundamental value, which is the price + profit they are worth in the current economy and they may also have a speculative value, which is price inflation caused by people thinking the price will go and they can sell at a later date. A fiat currency can also have a value as a unit of exchange, though that value only represents purchasing power minus the fees of operating the fiat.
As Dulceácido points out, Bitcoin has little value. The fundamental value of Bitcoin is the value which it provides as a medium of exchange, which is negligible. It has no real value other than that. When people exchange it, it's just a fiat token that represents purchasing power as decided by the market. The rest of the BTC price is speculative (because they think the price will go up); or ignorance. If you take all the speculation out of Bitcoin you are just left with the demand to use it on dark markets, which would probably push the price down to the single digits.
Going to what you ask about a recession (or depression). They are usually caused by debts that can't be paid that begin snowballing on top of each other. As the debts mount up, people's business go under, people loose their jobs, people stop investing in their business, they pull out of markets, they slow production. All of this causes dramatic changes in how assets are priced. As many people sell assets that are in a huge speculative bubble, people chase a smaller and smaller pool of circulating dollars.
If there is another crash now, people will be moving into dollars and Treasuries or at least some country's fiat. They may use that to buy crypto, they may not. However, if there is a market crash and there is also a dollar crisis then people will quite likely start piling into crypto. But I think that is unlikely. People will be selling masses of liquid assets and real estate and that diminishes the pool of dollars (they have more purchasing power). I think it's more likely one national currency would be seen as dangerous and people pile out of that in FX. I think the bullish case for crypto in this case would be if a fiat currency in one country went down where it was difficult to get out of that country's currency and assets and easier to get into crypto.
I would certainly monitor crypto in a crash and buy it if it looks like it is going FOMO.
Last point is that although the price of crypto is mostly speculation, doesn't mean there is not masses to be made there. One thing that keeps people in other than greed is the idea that crypto will find applications to tie itself to real wealth. I think the best investment strategy is buy into all the wildest bubbles, but understand what they are, and sell out near the top; and 2) to buy stocks of companies that may create much bigger markets in the future.
As Dulceácido points out, Bitcoin has little value. The fundamental value of Bitcoin is the value which it provides as a medium of exchange, which is negligible. It has no real value other than that. When people exchange it, it's just a fiat token that represents purchasing power as decided by the market. The rest of the BTC price is speculative (because they think the price will go up); or ignorance. If you take all the speculation out of Bitcoin you are just left with the demand to use it on dark markets, which would probably push the price down to the single digits.
Going to what you ask about a recession (or depression). They are usually caused by debts that can't be paid that begin snowballing on top of each other. As the debts mount up, people's business go under, people loose their jobs, people stop investing in their business, they pull out of markets, they slow production. All of this causes dramatic changes in how assets are priced. As many people sell assets that are in a huge speculative bubble, people chase a smaller and smaller pool of circulating dollars.
If there is another crash now, people will be moving into dollars and Treasuries or at least some country's fiat. They may use that to buy crypto, they may not. However, if there is a market crash and there is also a dollar crisis then people will quite likely start piling into crypto. But I think that is unlikely. People will be selling masses of liquid assets and real estate and that diminishes the pool of dollars (they have more purchasing power). I think it's more likely one national currency would be seen as dangerous and people pile out of that in FX. I think the bullish case for crypto in this case would be if a fiat currency in one country went down where it was difficult to get out of that country's currency and assets and easier to get into crypto.
I would certainly monitor crypto in a crash and buy it if it looks like it is going FOMO.
Last point is that although the price of crypto is mostly speculation, doesn't mean there is not masses to be made there. One thing that keeps people in other than greed is the idea that crypto will find applications to tie itself to real wealth. I think the best investment strategy is buy into all the wildest bubbles, but understand what they are, and sell out near the top; and 2) to buy stocks of companies that may create much bigger markets in the future.
Ammunition is my favourite store of wealth. It may not appreciate in good times but it doesn't depreciate either, and in truly bad times it will be worth a shitload. ![[Image: lol.gif]](https://rooshvforum.network/images/smilies/new/lol.gif)
The public will judge a man by what he lifts, but those close to him will judge him by what he carries.
I guess it depends a lot on crypto market state. If traditional financial assets won´t be secure, why people wouldn´t invest rather in crypto? But crypto markets must be healthy, not what we have seen last 2 months.
This discussion about real price of crypto is useless. Biggest factor in it´s movement is people´s psychics and that´s what nobody will ever fully understand. The most of the assets in financial world we live in are the same case as crypto. That´s something we have to deal with.
Ammunition is good storage of value. Local price for 7.62x39 went up 100% in recent period.
This discussion about real price of crypto is useless. Biggest factor in it´s movement is people´s psychics and that´s what nobody will ever fully understand. The most of the assets in financial world we live in are the same case as crypto. That´s something we have to deal with.
Ammunition is good storage of value. Local price for 7.62x39 went up 100% in recent period.
"Love your life, perfect your life, beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and its purpose in the service of your people."
I'm just here for the lolz. I'm not trying to troll you guys and yeah, as was pointed out: I'm a no-coiner and I'll get out of your threads after this last post. Lend me an ear for just one moment.
The "value" of crypto-currency is only in it's usefulness as a currency exchange vehicle, which is next to nothing considering you could just do a wire transfer. Think of it like writing a check (I know, some of you won't remember what a check is/was--it's a dying thing), all it is is a way to represent the exchange of funds immediately, for what ultimately becomes a future transaction done behind the scenes by financial institutions.
So, how does it make any sense that this market can inflate/deflate when you have to use real currency to buy the product? It's because of all of you hyping it or trashing it in forums and so forth. Imagine the same thing happening with a "check" as a currency exchange. I write you a note saying I have $20 although I don't have it physically present, but I promise that it will be paid to you. That check is worth, to you, $20. No matter what I say or do, that little piece of paper will never be worth more than that and it's worthless to anyone else.
You guys are hyping and doing "speculation," causing the "value" to increase or decrease, just like anything else--the problem remains the "thing" you're speculating on does NOT exist. It's a made up thing. You're not speculating real estate, precious metals, commodities, fuels, etc. All those things can be traced and tracked and found on a pier or loading dock somewhere ready to be placed into the consumer market.
On the other hand, you dudes are playing the "speculation" game with a non-existent thing that was invented and hyped by "Chad Thundernerd" and next week there will be a new one and then 2 new ones after that--then 3... It does not exist.
And guess what you're going to use to buy it, real currency.
I'm not saying you can't make money in this, obviously many have become rich and to some it can be lucrative, but as a financial system this thing is doomed to fail. I equate it to the "pet rock" of the millennium (for those of you too young, some guy painted a face on small rocks and sold them like nuts in the 70's and became a millionaire).
Think of your profit as dropping a melon off the top of tall building. At every floor, you can catch the melon (take profits), but the further the melon falls, the more money you make, until the melon hits the ground and it explodes and is worthless. That's what you guys are doing. When it goes splat, you're going to have lost all that real money you used to buy that worthless melon.
The "value" of crypto-currency is only in it's usefulness as a currency exchange vehicle, which is next to nothing considering you could just do a wire transfer. Think of it like writing a check (I know, some of you won't remember what a check is/was--it's a dying thing), all it is is a way to represent the exchange of funds immediately, for what ultimately becomes a future transaction done behind the scenes by financial institutions.
So, how does it make any sense that this market can inflate/deflate when you have to use real currency to buy the product? It's because of all of you hyping it or trashing it in forums and so forth. Imagine the same thing happening with a "check" as a currency exchange. I write you a note saying I have $20 although I don't have it physically present, but I promise that it will be paid to you. That check is worth, to you, $20. No matter what I say or do, that little piece of paper will never be worth more than that and it's worthless to anyone else.
You guys are hyping and doing "speculation," causing the "value" to increase or decrease, just like anything else--the problem remains the "thing" you're speculating on does NOT exist. It's a made up thing. You're not speculating real estate, precious metals, commodities, fuels, etc. All those things can be traced and tracked and found on a pier or loading dock somewhere ready to be placed into the consumer market.
On the other hand, you dudes are playing the "speculation" game with a non-existent thing that was invented and hyped by "Chad Thundernerd" and next week there will be a new one and then 2 new ones after that--then 3... It does not exist.
And guess what you're going to use to buy it, real currency.
I'm not saying you can't make money in this, obviously many have become rich and to some it can be lucrative, but as a financial system this thing is doomed to fail. I equate it to the "pet rock" of the millennium (for those of you too young, some guy painted a face on small rocks and sold them like nuts in the 70's and became a millionaire).
Think of your profit as dropping a melon off the top of tall building. At every floor, you can catch the melon (take profits), but the further the melon falls, the more money you make, until the melon hits the ground and it explodes and is worthless. That's what you guys are doing. When it goes splat, you're going to have lost all that real money you used to buy that worthless melon.
Hmm, no. No that's not right.
That's not right at all.
But if you don't want any that's cool.
That's not right at all.
But if you don't want any that's cool.
@Dulceacido - do you have any idea what the blockchain is/does?
Comparing crypto currency to the equivalent of a wire transfer/beanie baby/tulip mania/bubble etc is just the spreading of more fear/uncertainty/doubt from people that have no idea of its capability and/or have a vested interest in seeing it fail.
Comparing crypto currency to the equivalent of a wire transfer/beanie baby/tulip mania/bubble etc is just the spreading of more fear/uncertainty/doubt from people that have no idea of its capability and/or have a vested interest in seeing it fail.
Quote: (02-22-2018 05:48 PM)Windom Earle Wrote:
@Dulceacido - do have any idea what the blockchain is/does? Comparing crypto currency to the equivalent of a wire transfer/beanie baby/tulip mania/bubble etc is just the spreading of more fear/uncertainty/doubt from people that have no idea of its capability and/or have a vested interest in seeing it fail.
Don't reply to me directly if you don't want me to reply. I already said, I'd bail out of the thread. I meant it. I'm cool with you guys playing this game.
It's all good, Brothers. I just don't agree with it, nor do I agree with the way you manipulate the prices with just talking on the internet. Other than your unscrupulous practices, I've nothing to do with it. I would never buy it. i have no investment in it. And, instead of being a a dick, I'm just gonna ignore your threads, because I could sit here and shred you to bits because you're blinded by greed and you can't see the financial scrutiny which is wrong with what you're doing. It's wrong and there will be legislation oncoming to prevent it, but you're just following technology and are ahead of regulation. I'm okay with it.
But, what you just said confirms everything I just said. You agreed that this form of currency is interestingly susceptible to internet hyping.
If it wasn't, then why would you give 2 shits what my position on it is? I've no investments in this. I've a moral objection to it. If I'm wrong, then you could just tell me to pack sand and shut up. You don't need to debate me. The fact that my dissension troubles you, should be fact enough for people to doubt fundamentals of what you're doing. If you want to sell "Snake Oil" to people and rob them of their actual currency is deplorable. Do I care about "Snake Oil?" No: Because I'd never buy it. Do I have concerns about people being taken advantage of for buying your Snake Oil? Meh... It's debatable. PT Barnum said, "A fool and his money are quickly parted." That's this. That's what you're doing. Do I want government interference to protect people from their own stupid decisions? No. I'm Libertarian--a staunch Libertarian. Does it make it okay what you're doing? I dunno, it's not my problem.
My problem is, if you want to call me "stupid" or "ignorant" or whatever, like some of your colleagues, then yeah, I have a problem with that.
You guys write your own articles and submit your own videos applauding or deploring whatever currency you're into that day. You have very few voices of dissension because the only people that watch those videos are you. It makes no sense. I could, just as easily, make my own currency then enslave an army of computer dudes to promote it, and there's a chance i could get away with it and make a mint.
The simple fact remains (and feel free to debate this fact) you are paying real money for an electronic certificate of exchange which values nothing. What is the difference from me writing on a scrap of notebook paper "$50" then charging you $50 and you going online trying to convince everyone it's worth $100? Someone buys it, you double your profit, then they do the same thing for a higher amount...
If this troubles you, yeah, you should be troubled. Don't accuse me of trying to infiltrate your "good deal" you have by simply saying, "It's a stupid deal and is unsustainable." If it doesn't trouble you, then no big deal.
Quote: (02-22-2018 06:43 PM)yaku Wrote:
Quote: (02-22-2018 05:48 PM)Windom Earle Wrote:
@Dulceacido - do you have any idea what the blockchain is/does?
Dulceacido said he's not a crypto guy. Of course he has no idea what a blockchain is.
Not sure why he thinks anyone would value his opinion on a subject he admits he knows nothing about.
Is it a ledger of the exchange of crypto-currencies, increasingly growing, with a time stamp?
I could be over-simplifying it. Pretty sure not. Quit calling my name and i'll leave the thread.
Dulceácido, you should refrain from commenting on this topic until you get better educated.
You have no clue what you're talking about.
The fact that you just think blockchain technology is just a form of currency exchange shows exactly the value of your opinion on the topic, which is none.
Quote:Quote:
Your unscrupulous practices
I could sit here and shred you to bits
Snake oil
The "value" of crypto-currency is only in it's usefulness as a currency exchange vehicle, which is next to nothing considering you could just do a wire transfer
You have no clue what you're talking about.
The fact that you just think blockchain technology is just a form of currency exchange shows exactly the value of your opinion on the topic, which is none.
Quote: (02-22-2018 03:19 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:
The "value" of crypto-currency is only in it's usefulness as a currency exchange vehicle, which is next to nothing considering you could just do a wire transfer.
Yes because wire transfers are easy, quick, and cheap to do. Not.
You are completely ignorant when it comes to this stuff.
Quote: (02-22-2018 06:34 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:
If this troubles you, yeah, you should be troubled. Don't accuse me of trying to infiltrate your "good deal" you have by simply saying, "It's a stupid deal and is unsustainable." If it doesn't trouble you, then no big deal.
If you're that confident Bitcoin's doomed, how big a short have you placed on it? You don't have to give specifics, of course. But say, 4-digit? 5-digit? What leverage are you using? 5x? 10x? Going big with the 100x leverage?
If you're not shorting it, then why not? It's clearly not because of the hassle, I opened a 10x short this morning and it took less time than it did to brush my teeth.
Probably depends somewhat on the trigger for the recession, and who it hits hardest. If people start losing jobs they may try to sell their cryptos for cash to live on, while more liquid secure people buy them up. My guess is it would be very volatile with a large potential for making money. Long term it would probably have minimal affect; once the recession is weathered and we are a few quarters safely out of it, bitcoin would probably be valued around the same as is if there was never a recession in the first place.
Just my wild guess.
Just my wild guess.
Quote: (02-22-2018 08:18 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:
Quote: (02-22-2018 06:34 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:
If this troubles you, yeah, you should be troubled. Don't accuse me of trying to infiltrate your "good deal" you have by simply saying, "It's a stupid deal and is unsustainable." If it doesn't trouble you, then no big deal.
If you're that confident Bitcoin's doomed, how big a short have you placed on it? You don't have to give specifics, of course. But say, 4-digit? 5-digit? What leverage are you using? 5x? 10x? Going big with the 100x leverage?
If you're not shorting it, then why not? It's clearly not because of the hassle, I opened a 10x short this morning and it took less time than it did to brush my teeth.
I don't short it because of you guys....
I don't short WHAT? What am I shorting? Short what?
I already said that as an economical principal, you can make money.
I've "shorted" the stock market crash. I've shorted the automobile crash.
I've made something from nothing, but you guys think you can do this continuously with no repercussions. I shorted the real estate and the automotive markets when they went undervalued for the products they possessed. Did I do a shit thing, yes? Did I make money on it, yes? Ya'll are doing it without capitol and without value....
Quote: (02-22-2018 08:45 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:
Quote: (02-22-2018 08:18 PM)SamuelBRoberts Wrote:
Quote: (02-22-2018 06:34 PM)Dulceácido Wrote:
If this troubles you, yeah, you should be troubled. Don't accuse me of trying to infiltrate your "good deal" you have by simply saying, "It's a stupid deal and is unsustainable." If it doesn't trouble you, then no big deal.
If you're that confident Bitcoin's doomed, how big a short have you placed on it? You don't have to give specifics, of course. But say, 4-digit? 5-digit? What leverage are you using? 5x? 10x? Going big with the 100x leverage?
If you're not shorting it, then why not? It's clearly not because of the hassle, I opened a 10x short this morning and it took less time than it did to brush my teeth.
I don't short it because of you guys....
I don't short WHAT? What am I shorting? Short what?
I already said that as an economical principal, you can make money.
I've "shorted" the stock market crash. I've shorted the automobile crash.
I've made something from nothing, but you guys think you can do this continuously with no repercussions. I shorted the real estate and the automotive markets when they went undervalued for the products they possessed. Did I do a shit thing, yes? Did I make money on it, yes? Ya'll are doing it without capitol and without value....
I'm sorry, is English not your first language? It feels like something's not getting through here.
Quote:Quote:Why are we stopping you from shorting Bitcoin? Are you not doing it out of consideration for us or something? If that's the case then don't worry, short it all you like. You have my permission to go ahead.
I don't short it because of you guys....
Quote:Quote:Bitcoin. You would be shorting bitcoin.
I don't short WHAT? What am I shorting? Short what?
Quote:Quote:What repercussions are going to come? Am I going to get struck by lightning for spending too much money on coinbase?
I've made something from nothing, but you guys think you can do this continuously with no repercussions.
Quote:Quote:Why is shorting a shit thing? It's a business agreement between two individuals, one of whom thinks the price will go up and one of whom thinks the price will go down.
Did I do a shit thing, yes?
Quote:Quote:How on Earth do you short without capital? What would this even mean? When I short something, I put up my own capital as collateral. If I have no capital, they won't let me short.
Ya'll are doing it without capitol and without value....
Are you sure you understand how shorting works, or how... anything works, for that matter?
I can show you mathematically, which is something you fail to understand, but here goes: Your mathematics are "undefinable."
No-coiners are so weird.
Coiners have no mathematic skills. We're even.
You just witnessed an entire mathematics class debate what I was just telling you and they were proven wrong. Get over yourself.
You just witnessed an entire mathematics class debate what I was just telling you and they were proven wrong. Get over yourself.
Dulceácido, you don't have to qualify to us by virtue signaling about the poor fools that invest in crypto and get scammed out of their money. You call yourself a libertarian, yet you want the government to intervene and protect fools from learning hard lessons in investing? You of all people should know that the government can't protect people from making stupid decisions, they have to make mistakes and learn. Nobody here is under the delusion that this cannot end badly for people, as is the case with anything you invest in. Everything has a cost and risk with it and people in this space have come to the mindset that the potential rewards are worth it.
I like FUD. I like it when people give me valid reasons for making me question my perspective. Nothing you have said has made me question my stance on crypto. Your argument about the intrinsic value of crypto gets you nowhere. You think the value of crypto currency comes from being able to "exchange". I'm guessing you mean peer-to-peer trades without a middleman like a bank...but neglected to mention the real value that comes from decentralisation and the power that comes from being able to fully control your money. As a staunch libertarian I would think you would appreciate this more than being just a fad.
I challenge you think about what money really is. In the past, it has taken the form of sea shells, precious metals like gold and silver, paper receipts and, more recently fiat in the form of plastic and numbers on a computer screen. When I'm sitting in the hot tub I think about how surreal it is that humans can choose seemingly worthless objects and information as a medium of exchange, value it, and ultimately be controlled by it without an afterthought. If money is whatever the government tells you it is then I will say you have taken the blue pill.
I like FUD. I like it when people give me valid reasons for making me question my perspective. Nothing you have said has made me question my stance on crypto. Your argument about the intrinsic value of crypto gets you nowhere. You think the value of crypto currency comes from being able to "exchange". I'm guessing you mean peer-to-peer trades without a middleman like a bank...but neglected to mention the real value that comes from decentralisation and the power that comes from being able to fully control your money. As a staunch libertarian I would think you would appreciate this more than being just a fad.
I challenge you think about what money really is. In the past, it has taken the form of sea shells, precious metals like gold and silver, paper receipts and, more recently fiat in the form of plastic and numbers on a computer screen. When I'm sitting in the hot tub I think about how surreal it is that humans can choose seemingly worthless objects and information as a medium of exchange, value it, and ultimately be controlled by it without an afterthought. If money is whatever the government tells you it is then I will say you have taken the blue pill.
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