[Sgt Donger]

(09-24-2018 12:40 PM)Arado Wrote:  

Anyone here ever use the Motley Fool Stock Advisor subscription service?

I'm sceptical about these subscription newsletters, online experts, whatever you want to call them. They make their money by selling subscriptions to their newsletter and they make that money no matter if their advice is good or bad.

I haven't done any analysis of their claimed portfolio returns, but I suspect that they have picked a few winners (luck) and those good returns have offset a load of bad/ average picks. So to get their claimed return you would have needed to buy all the winning stocks that they recommended (at the same portfolio weighting that they have). Now in order to have bought all the winning stocks you would have also had to have bought all the losing stocks because no-one knows which stock will be a winner or loser at the time you buy.

Additionally, to have achieved the long term returns that they claim you would have had to held the full portfolio for the full term. A more likely scenario is that most people pick a few of the recommendations to buy (because they don't want to trade on every recommendation that is published) and end up picking a few losing stocks which result in an overall average/ losing portfolio performance.

It is also likely that once the stock you have picked starts losing value you will sell and crystalise your loss. Most people then repeat the cycle, buy a few more of the recommended stocks which will include some losers and then sell when they see the stocks going down.

Also likely is that is if people pick a winning stock they will sell once they make a good return of say 30%. Few people will hold a winner for the long term because the temptation to sell and take the profit/ avoid losing the profit is too great. Taking a profit isn't bad, but most people won't let profits run for too long and therefore not achieve the large long term gains required to offset the multiple losing stocks that would also have been bought along the way.

[BB1]

(09-24-2018 12:40 PM)Arado Wrote:  

Returns look good but sounds like a scam since many people say you can't beat the market year after year long term.

That is total bullshit. I know many individual investors that have beaten the market over 20+ years, often by substantial amounts.

(09-24-2018 02:02 PM)Sgt Donger Wrote:  

Also likely is that is if people pick a winning stock they will sell once they make a good return of say 30%.

Successful investors hold great companies for the long term. Typically just a few companies will power 90% of your long term gains. Many investors are up over 5,000% in companies like Netflix and Amazon. Investing is mostly about patience.

[Arado]

(09-24-2018 05:44 PM)BB1 Wrote:  

(09-24-2018 12:40 PM)Arado Wrote:  

Returns look good but sounds like a scam since many people say you can't beat the market year after year long term.

That is total bullshit. I know many individual investors that have beaten the market over 20+ years, often by substantial amounts.

(09-24-2018 02:02 PM)Sgt Donger Wrote:  

Also likely is that is if people pick a winning stock they will sell once they make a good return of say 30%.

Successful investors hold great companies for the long term. Typically just a few companies will power 90% of your long term gains. Many investors are up over 5,000% in companies like Netflix and Amazon. Investing is mostly about patience.

Yeah, I meant can someone beat the market if they don't know the industry/company very well and are relying on the advice of a stock picking company? Obviously some could beat the market if they understood the potential of the FAANG stocks and bought them 10 years ago.

BB1, what do you think about the Motley Fool stock picking subscription specifically?

[BB1]

(09-25-2018 03:21 PM)Arado Wrote:  

BB1, what do you think about the Motley Fool stock picking subscription specifically?

I have never subscribed, however I like their philosophy of holding companies for the long term and not taking profits too early, which is what most unsuccessful investors do.

For example I recommended The Trade Desk (TTD) in this thread on 15 Dec 2017 when is was trading at $49. Today TTD is worth $154 - a 314% increase.

I have had guys PM me, saying they sold all their TTD shares at between 20-50% profit. Look how much they have missed out on for not having the patience to hold a great company. In fact, I add to my winning companies, not reduce.

Here is an independent analysis of Motley Fool performance - they have beaten the market with this approach :

"Consider this: The three top spots in the Hulbert Financial Digest’s five-year rankings of more than 200 investment-advisory services all buy and hold quality companies. Remarkably, all three are subscription newsletters published by the same advisory firm, the Motley Fool in Alexandria, Va., which was founded by brothers Tom and David Gardner in 1993.

The newsletters’ names are Inside Value, Rule Breakers and Stock Advisor, and their model portfolios have produced average annual returns over the period of 18%, 16% and 15%, respectively, each more than doubling the 7.2% return of the overall stock market over the same period, as measured by the Wilshire 5000 index, with dividends reinvested."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/forget...2013-08-02

[jbkunt2]

Great points BB1.

On a side note; is anyone considering DocuSign?

I am a fan of the product but haven’t done too much research on the company’s outlook. I am aware that there are cheaper copycats available but docusign definitely seem the leader.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.marketw...36E8822346

[John Michael Kane]

Just bought in for more shares in Nvidia. They are heavily invested in not only gaming, but VR, business and military applications. They have decades of releasing products that people and businesses want and need. Certainly not "cheap", but some "values" IMHO are based upon knowing that you're securing your principal and taking healthy dividends, plus plenty of upside growth opportunity.

[Arado]

GE stock has really taken a dive over the last few years, seems like it's pretty cheap now. Anyone think they can recover or is it game over?

[booshala]

(09-26-2018 11:49 AM)Arado Wrote:  

GE stock has really taken a dive over the last few years, seems like it's pretty cheap now. Anyone think they can recover or is it game over?

They've been selling off a lot of their businesses in the past 10 years: NBC, GE Financial, GE appliance, transportation and now they're going to spin off GE Healthcare which is their most profitable remaining business. After that it'll just be the core industrial stuff left. Given that the remaining company will be around half of what it used to be at peak levels, it's very unlikely to me that the new GE will rebound to former numbers.

Still, at these prices, I think the shares you get from the healthcare spinoff make it a fairly good buy even if the parent company is a shadow of its former self. And the remaining core business (aviation, power plants, renewable energy) isn't going anywhere and seems fairly recession resistant. Not gonna back up the truck, but I see it like buying Honeywell and getting some Medtronic shares for free.

[jbkunt2]

Anyone recommend any cyber security industry stocks?

[jbkunt2]

@BB1 of the earlier tech stocks you mentioned, such as TTD, MongoDB and AYX.. obviously they have seen major appreciation, but do you think any are worth investing in at current prices?

E.g. I bought AYX and it’s up 83%! It’s now at $60 and I was considering buying more...

Cheers!

[John Michael Kane]

What are some of your favorite dividend stocks? I'm curious to hear your picks for those looking for buying and holding stocks for the purposes of regular income, instead of timing buy/sell cycles with more frequent trading.

[booshala]

(09-26-2018 10:40 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  

What are some of your favorite dividend stocks? I'm curious to hear your picks for those looking for buying and holding stocks for the purposes of regular income, instead of timing buy/sell cycles with more frequent trading.

These are my favorite dividend stocks that I intend to hold indefinitely, although I am leaning towards scaling out of some of the energy companies in the coming years. All held in a taxable account:

Johnson & Johnson
Coca Cola
Exxon
Chevron
Royal Dutch Shell
BP
BHP Billiton
Nike (hybrid growth + dividend play considering dividend is still low)
Nestle
Diageo
Hershey
Boeing
Philip Morris
Altria
IBM
Qualcomm
AT&T
Clorox
Glaxo Smith Kline

I also hold REITs in my IRA's for the tax advantaged income.

[booshala]

(09-26-2018 09:56 PM)jbkunt2 Wrote:  

Anyone recommend any cyber security industry stocks?

How about Symantec? They had an accounting scandal earlier in the year that dropped the share price 35% in a day and they're still near lows... but seem to have healthy profit margins, established products and the industry is growing at 15% annually. Gambling that the accounting scandal is a one-off issue and they'll be a lot more careful about stuff like that.

Sold some puts at $20 strike price for Jan 2019 a few months ago. Collected premiums up front and am willing to buy in at that price for the long haul.

[gework]

(09-26-2018 10:40 PM)John Michael Kane Wrote:  

What are some of your favorite dividend stocks?

I'm holding SKT (Sky TV Australia). As you can see it paid out around 14% this year. It's down around 70% of highs. Probably not a great one to hold for growth, but worth a punt IMO.

ProGambler recommended Vedanta Resources. This has gone up and down a lot. I think I have been up 65% on the equity and the dividend has been good for years. Last twelve months is about 7-8%.

[Sidney Crosby]

Royal Nickel corp (RNX) is going to be yuge, lot of predictions of $5-10 EOY

[Arado]

Tesla stock is down over 10% after the SEC charges Musk with fraud. Buying opportunity?

Seems like Tesla has overcome various other bad news over the last few years, though is this the last straw?

[Lampwick]

Elastic filed for IPO. They do enterprise search based on open source technology. For those who were interested in Mongo, this company is similar. They are growing pretty rapidly at 100% per year. The IPO looks like it will be some time this fall. Here's an interesting discussion on Hacker News:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17920556

Personally, I like this kind of company. It has an unsexy but essential product. Even though it's based on open source, the complexity for developers to build in-house is usually prohibitive. It hits that sweet spot in buy vs. build. And they're growing rapidly in the enterprise space.

The main risk is that AWS has Amazon Elasticsearch Service, which may be good enough for many companies. But I think this service isn't going to cut it for a big part of the market.

I'd be interested in hearing your guys' thoughts on this one as well.

[Emancipator]

Took a hit with Geron, win some lose some.

[John Michael Kane]

(09-27-2018 05:27 PM)Arado Wrote:  

Tesla stock is down over 10% after the SEC charges Musk with fraud. Buying opportunity?

Seems like Tesla has overcome various other bad news over the last few years, though is this the last straw?

Personally, I wouldn't put any money in Tesla. They've been plagued by quality control issues, multiple failures to hit production numbers, and an internal culture that is very disordered, starting with Elon at the top. Elon has a great mind and is clearly brilliant in the big picture stuff, but he is not a good leader or manager, which is what a CEO needs. The perception that Musk = Tesla means people will lose faith in this company with him being sidelined.

I'd advise against putting more chips in. Keep in mind that Tesla's competitors will all have electric cars in the market within the next 24 months or so. That's when they will go from first-mover's advantage, to breaking point of their many weaknesses.

[BB1]

(09-29-2018 03:46 PM)Lampwick Wrote:  

Elastic filed for IPO. They do enterprise search based on open source technology. For those who were interested in Mongo, this company is similar. They are growing pretty rapidly at 100% per year. The IPO looks like it will be some time this fall.

Elastic (ESTC) will IPO this week. This is an excellent company that fits in well with my hypergrowth strategy.

No doubt their shares are going to pop on the IPO. I may buy if the pop is not too extreme!

[BB1]

(09-26-2018 10:12 PM)jbkunt2 Wrote:  

@BB1 of the earlier tech stocks you mentioned, such as TTD, MongoDB and AYX.. obviously they have seen major appreciation, but do you think any are worth investing in at current prices?

E.g. I bought AYX and it’s up 83%! It’s now at $60 and I was considering buying more...

Cheers!

It all depends on your risk tolerance, conviction and investing time frame. These stocks may come under pressure before moving higher, as big traders try to shake out the weak hands.

In my own portfolio, I brought a lot more Nutanix (NTNX) last Fri around $43

[jbkunt2]

@BB1 - I’m very much interested in the long term and willing to hold (and usually buy more) during dips.

I bought some Nutanix at around $52 a few weeks back. I’ve just bought some more at $42 to lower my average cost price. Looks worth a punt as the potential upside looks high if things work out for them.

Thanks again.

[jbkunt2]

Anyone else buying Facebook?

I really think that Instagram is going to exceed already high expectations for it.

The ads on Instagram are really powerful IMO and that’s going to attract big spending from advertisers.

I also think BABA look a snip right now assumin you are a longer term investor. How can the Chinese Amazon not be bigger in five years??

[gework]

Two articles are pushing me to sell out in the near-term:

Charles Schwab Client Cash Hits All Time Low As Retail Investors Flood The Market

Quote:

After the best quarter for the S&P in 5 years, retail investors have flooded back into stocks, drawing down cash balances at brokerage accounts to record lows

"Worse Than The Dot Com Bubble": Money-Losing Companies Are Going Public At A Record Rate

Quote:

a record number, or 83% of US listed IPOs over the first three quarters of 2018, were companies that lost money in the 12 month prior to their going public

Corporate, household and government debt are back at all time highs. There isn't a whole lot you can point to in the global economy in terms of real wealth creation when compared to rising populations, increasing burden of the retired, the squeeze on sustainable families etc. People are spending their money of fap like Facebook boosts, Netflix, holidays etc., which require resources to be destroyed and create nothing.

By and large people are chasing assets bubbles that are not backed by real wealth, or even good prospects for real wealth creation. Sooner or later the gaping hole between real wealth and inflated assets will pop. Winner will be holding cash, before moving to discount hard assets.

Retail will no doubt push the markets up a good bit more, then I'm out.

[Arado]

(10-02-2018 10:59 AM)jbkunt2 Wrote:  

Anyone else buying Facebook?

I really think that Instagram is going to exceed already high expectations for it.

The ads on Instagram are really powerful IMO and that’s going to attract big spending from advertisers.

I also think BABA look a snip right now assumin you are a longer term investor. How can the Chinese Amazon not be bigger in five years??

So you don't think the data breach and EU investigation will be hindrances going forward? OTOH, Whatsapp also still has big potential for monetization.