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Petrol Price Plummet : Economic / travel arbitrage travel opportunities
12-16-2014, 07:06 PM
So apart from the obvious (take a trip to Russia and enjoy the much better exchange rate now), can anyone suggest some nice opportunities that might come up with the plummeting oil price?
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/pet...re-4823997
Could be a business opportunity, could be travel or investments ... anything.
Any ideas?
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Petrol Price Plummet : Economic / travel arbitrage travel opportunities
12-16-2014, 07:56 PM
Airlines usually purchase their fuel in futures. It may take a little bit to see the price reflection in fuel costs. That might be good timing for me because next September I might go back to China. At the minimum my wife will go back if I pick up another good paying project.
Summer prices might be good too. That's excellent news for guys looking to escape in the summer.
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Petrol Price Plummet : Economic / travel arbitrage travel opportunities
12-16-2014, 07:56 PM
Maybe buy land in EE that can be sold later for a profit or can be later developed or a combination of the previously mentioned options.
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Petrol Price Plummet : Economic / travel arbitrage travel opportunities
12-16-2014, 08:05 PM
Unfortunately, cheaper fuel prices do not equal cheaper airfare prices. Since flights are mostly at full capacity, most airlines will keep their prices the same and pocket the difference as extra profit.
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Petrol Price Plummet : Economic / travel arbitrage travel opportunities
12-16-2014, 09:48 PM
The most straightforward opportunity is going to be in oil development - but not until the price decline finishes playing out. Long story short, over the last 4 years a lot of the cheap money sloshing around found its way into oil development, particularly in junk bonds financing investment. This is all when oil was oscillating between $80-110. With oil under $60 and falling the heavy costs and debt burdens undertaken in the past can't be recouped at the lower selling point, meaning those who hold that debt are potential bagholders. Since pretty much everyone from huge institutional investors and banks to pensioners via high yield mutual funds are involved there is a potential mess on our hands. But at the same time if you can wait it out there will be opportunities to invest in companies which are in a position to scoop up liquidated projects very cheaply.
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Petrol Price Plummet : Economic / travel arbitrage travel opportunities
12-16-2014, 10:18 PM
I can think of several possibilities, though I don't know exactly how risky they'd be. I'm sure there are cases to be made against them. Regardless, here they are:
Forex/foreign stocks -- If you think that any currencies (e.g. the ruble) currently suffering as a result of low oil prices will improve in the future, then they might be a good play. Likewise, foreign stocks with good fundamentals might be a good play if you have the ability to buy on foreign exchanges.
Shorting Russia -- If you think things are going to get worse for Russia, at least in the short term, you could short anything and everything Russian, including the currency.
Land -- This has already been mentioned, but I'd particularly look into agricultural land (in EE). In the short term, it might be unprofitable, but be good in the longer term.
Oil stocks -- Again, not a short term play, but there's potential for big money if/when oil shoots up again.
Oil product stocks -- Potentially (at least before a price war), anything derived from oil could make big profits off the cheaper input (oil). If they don't (and lower their prices instead, then see my point on items for personal consumption). Conversely, if these stocks are getting hammered, then they could be a value play in the longer term.
Agricultural products -- This is basically the same as the previous one, since modern agriculture relies heavily upon oil (both for transportation and fertilisers).
Items for personal consumption -- Anything derived from oil, whether it's fuel, food, plastics, toiletries or any number of other products might come down in price. If you have the available space to store such things, and can buy them in bulk, such purchases might actually even represent better savings/gains than direct investments in stocks and so on.
Precious metals -- Precious metals might continue to stay low (or go lower), so they could also be a good play.
Critique as appropriate.
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Petrol Price Plummet : Economic / travel arbitrage travel opportunities
12-16-2014, 11:16 PM
Russia is looking a hell of a lot cheaper now, but the chaos that might ensue is too scary to even plan for. Putin's the best of a bad lot over there and there are hardliners who would do crazy stuff if he did get ousted. I'm still going though probably in Feb or March - stuff is 1/2 price of what it was just a few months ago
Pretty good piece on what the Saudis are/were thinking and where this might be headed:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2759495-...ing?page=2
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