[DamienCasanova]

Silver & Gold hammered hard today with banks offloading shit tons of paper. Leaving a YUGE disparity between the East & West price. $59+ dollar drop in gold from 1327 to 1268, and almost $2 dollar drop in silver from under $20 to 17.80.

Will be very interested to see what happens when the Chinese market opens in the morning.

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

[JayJuanGee]

(10-04-2016 03:41 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

Silver & Gold hammered hard today with banks offloading shit tons of paper. Leaving a YUGE disparity between the East & West price. $59+ dollar drop in gold from 1327 to 1268, and almost $2 dollar drop in silver from under $20 to 17.80.

Will be very interested to see what happens when the Chinese market opens in the morning.

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

Actually, with all the news of the bank failures and playing around with money (including what is outlined in this article: https://www.rt.com/business/361575-centr...-casino/), you would think that gold/silver would have some appreciation in value, rather than depreciation... but then again, a lot of this paper gold/silver causes weird dynamics, too.


Will also be interesting to witness the extent to which bitcoin prices might be affected in one direction or another in the coming 24 hours or the coming week. So far, or at least the last several days, bitcoin prices have remained relatively flat (the last couple of weeks have a very slightly upward inclination in bitcoin, but with relatively pathetically low trade volumes).

[Baphomet]

It's not generally recommended, but I have about 20% of my portfolio in physical gold and silver. And I had decided to stop there. However, if silver dips below $17.00, maybe $17.50, I might add a few more kilos to the pile. It would be very sweet to see that hit $40 again..

[DamienCasanova]

(10-04-2016 07:42 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

(10-04-2016 03:41 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

Silver & Gold hammered hard today with banks offloading shit tons of paper. Leaving a YUGE disparity between the East & West price. $59+ dollar drop in gold from 1327 to 1268, and almost $2 dollar drop in silver from under $20 to 17.80.

Will be very interested to see what happens when the Chinese market opens in the morning.

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

Actually, with all the news of the bank failures and playing around with money (including what is outlined in this article: https://www.rt.com/business/361575-centr...-casino/), you would think that gold/silver would have some appreciation in value, rather than depreciation... but then again, a lot of this paper gold/silver causes weird dynamics, too.


Will also be interesting to witness the extent to which bitcoin prices might be affected in one direction or another in the coming 24 hours or the coming week. So far, or at least the last several days, bitcoin prices have remained relatively flat (the last couple of weeks have a very slightly upward inclination in bitcoin, but with relatively pathetically low trade volumes).

Yeah, physical gold is appreciating, but the banks are using this opportunity to offload their paper gold bullshit and make money while they can. Just look at the arbitrage between east and west gold prices with a $60 dollar difference, and you can see what the scheme is right now.

Here's another example just from today, a reminder of the gold fixing scheme that is still going on.

Manipulation Lawsuit Against Gold-Fixing Banks Ordered To Proceed
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-05...nst-hsbc-s

With the GBP dropping the banks are probably selling off tons of their paper gold to recoup some losses, and this is just giving China the chance to corner the market even more... soon enough they will be the ones in charge of the gold market and setting the price.

[DamienCasanova]

Sounds like I was right about the UK gold liquidation. They haven't been able to get their easy arbitrage money from China with their market closed this week and have liquidated much of their gold holdings it seems.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-10-06...-behind-it

As for gold and the other precious metals they remain rather obviously weak and as we move away from Tuesday’s collapse it appears more and more that this was a forced liquidation on the part of a large… actually a massive… hedge fund out of London. The sheer panic that swept through the gold market then really hadn’t the look of a sell off predicated upon a rumoured push by the ECB to curtail its purchases of sovereign debt securities, nor had it the look of a rush on the part of hedgers in the gold mining industry to hedge forward production. Rather it had the look of forced margin-clerk liquidation. It looked like panic on the part of someone, somewhere who had lost control of the situation.

In mid-August, when the market was enjoying its low-volatility grind higher, we observed that one of the biggest bears in the hedge fund industry, Crispin Odey, was having a bad year, with his hedge fund sinking some 30% through the end of July. Since then, conditions have only gotten more precarious for the billionaire hedge fund manager, and as the FT writes, for Odey, who is betting it all "on a violent unwind of a QE bubble", the endgame may have arrived.

As Miles Johnson writes [for the Financial Times], "many financial commentators have warned that current monetary policy has inflated a bubble that will one day violently pop. Few of them have risked money betting on the precise manner in which a chaotic unwinding of quantitative easing will play out through financial markets. This makes the portfolio of Crispin Odey, a London-based hedge fund manager, an interesting outlier. Mr. Odey is one of only a handful of investors who has backed up his dire prognosis for the global economy with a series of large, leveraged trades designed to pay off in the event of a crash."

To be sure, as we noted two months ago, Odey's bets are predicated on a collapse of Japanese bond prices, a surge in the price of gold and immolation of equities. Or as the FT puts, it, "If it works he may make hundreds of millions of dollars for his clients. If wrong his fund may not survive."

We are not rumor mongers here and we do not like to report on other people’s problems for we’ve plenty of our own errors and sins to account for; but the fact that much of this was reported in The Financial Times allows us to speculate that Tuesday’s sell-off did look like liquidation rather than fundamentally warranted selling. This view is further supported by the fact that the open interest in the COMEX futures has fallen by more than 4% this week, suggestive strongly of forced liquidation and a throwing up of the hands… and of the stuff in one’s stomach.

It is very possible that Gartman is actually quite correct on this one, in which case the forced liquidation by one fund may lead to similar selling by many others in a daisy-chain of margin calls by all those who had loaded up on gold in a bearish bet that central banks will lose control, only to be forced to unwind their bets with China still on holiday and unable to provide a friendly bid. To be sure, one look at today's gold chart reveals that there may be much more pain on deck for gold longs.

---------------------------------------------

Gold down to $1250, and silver around 17.20, and both are still dropping. I'd wait a couple days, but it does sound like a good opportunity to get more silver and gold right now with all the market volatility. These hedge funds are liquidating their gold because they anticipated a collapse, but they have customers and debt to service in the billions and just couldn't wait it out...well if you can wait it out, buy some more metals.

[DamienCasanova]

(10-04-2016 03:41 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

Silver & Gold hammered hard today with banks offloading shit tons of paper. Leaving a YUGE disparity between the East & West price. $59+ dollar drop in gold from 1327 to 1268, and almost $2 dollar drop in silver from under $20 to 17.80.

Will be very interested to see what happens when the Chinese market opens in the morning.

http://didthesystemcollapse.com/

Same thing happened again today, wiping out all the gains we had in the last few months.

Silver down to $17.60, and someone dropped 10 billion in paper bullshit on the market, dropping gold down to $1230

Feels like a good time to invest in silver.

[SunW]

I love this. If gold rises, it means uncertainty. If gold falls, people are feeling confident. I'd rather have a strong economy, than strong gold price.

I'll take it.

[DamienCasanova]

Silver @ $16.60/oz looks like a great deal to me right now

[Baphomet]

(11-29-2016 02:05 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

Silver @ $16.60/oz looks like a great deal to me right now

Agreed. There's nothing quite like the feel of gold / silver bouillon in your safe.

[JayJuanGee]

Guys here probably already realize that I am quite a bit of a bitcoin enthusiast rather than farting around with gold and silver, but part of that may be with my comfort levels rather than any kind of assessment that either of those might not retain some value over various future crisis scenarios.

I did stumble across what seems to be a fairly interesting recent article, and it seems to be predicting really decent upsurges in gold prices in the coming years... but yeah, we will see, no?

Do guys here think this article makes decent points, or do they see some flaws in the points it is making?

It doesn't really seem to address one of my contentions about gold and silver, which is that even if you hold it in physical form, it continues to be considerably manipulated by various paper deflation forms, and you almost have to expect a near complete Armageddon scenario before the physical forms become more valuable than the paper forms - which I personally don't think that it is a good strategy to invest based on Armageddon-like scenarios because they are the less probable outcomes and I attempt to invest based on what I believe to be more probable outcomes (even though currently unknown, exactly)

https://srsroccoreport.com/historical-of...es-higher/

[`Petronius]

I've actually owned physical gold ever since I was kid.... Read about it and for some reason it stuck in my mind, though it makes up around 5% of my savings now. Most of the rest is in index funds, and I'm going to add a bit more into property soon.

That article is interesting, though I think the figures are a little shaky.

[DamienCasanova]

(01-25-2017 12:21 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Guys here probably already realize that I am quite a bit of a bitcoin enthusiast rather than farting around with gold and silver, but part of that may be with my comfort levels rather than any kind of assessment that either of those might not retain some value over various future crisis scenarios.

I did stumble across what seems to be a fairly interesting recent article, and it seems to be predicting really decent upsurges in gold prices in the coming years... but yeah, we will see, no?

Do guys here think this article makes decent points, or do they see some flaws in the points it is making?

It doesn't really seem to address one of my contentions about gold and silver, which is that even if you hold it in physical form, it continues to be considerably manipulated by various paper deflation forms, and you almost have to expect a near complete Armageddon scenario before the physical forms become more valuable than the paper forms - which I personally don't think that it is a good strategy to invest based on Armageddon-like scenarios because they are the less probable outcomes and I attempt to invest based on what I believe to be more probable outcomes (even though currently unknown, exactly)

https://srsroccoreport.com/historical-of...es-higher/

I've read many gold reports from that site, they have some great insight, but ultimately they are still in the business of selling (their) Gold.

The value of Gold has certainly been suppressed for many many years now, but his math is a bit fuzzy with the oil sleight of hand, production of Gold =/= Oil. Gold may be "worth a hell of a lot more" than the market says, but it's still only worth what the market will pay for it today.

Yes, our entire economy is a debt-based economy with worthless Fiat currency, but it's not going anywhere and financial interests will fight tooth & nail to keep it this way as long as possible. Like the author says, the entire oil industry and world economy would have to collapse before Gold was worth 10-20x it's current value. Peak Oil (when the price of pumping a barrel of oil exceeds the profit) still seems like a long way away.

Still, I believe Gold should be in everyone's investment portfolio, I tend to favor physical assets such as metals & property over stocks, bonds, funds etc. I probably have 20% of my savings in metals, so that may be higher than most, but i'd still recommend owning physical gold for everyone and just finding your own investment level that's comfortable.

Stocks are about peaked out at their highest level in history, smart money is selling right now, there's a massive debt bubble and interest rates are going to get hiked back up....so we are in for some major inflation. If Gold gains 10% (maybe more) in a year and holding inflated dollars loses you 4-5% (maybe more) well the benefit is obvious, as traditionally Gold is the best hedge against inflation. And as Currency Wars are escalating across the globe, and the more governments try to control the money supply and go digital, Gold will be one of the only safe havens and will see a large bounce this year. I know you're a BTC mark, and I love the BTC potential, but I still don't trust the blockchain like I trust an ounce of Gold in my hand. I think a lot of whales will be cashing out of the stock market now that the "free money, 0% interest for bankers" of the last 8 years is over, and once again 401k holders will be stuck holding the bag when the market tanks this year, while the big money transitions to Gold once again.



I think right now we are going through the same cycle that started back at around Jan 09, so if we see a repeat of that time frame I think Gold could ramp up to $2000 in the next 2 years.

[JayJuanGee]

(01-25-2017 03:24 PM)`Petronius Wrote:  

I've actually owned physical gold ever since I was kid.... Read about it and for some reason it stuck in my mind, though it makes up around 5% of my savings now. Most of the rest is in index funds, and I'm going to add a bit more into property soon.

That article is interesting, though I think the figures are a little shaky.

I think that there is some credence that can be given to any kind of past practice that you have developed, and especially if you have been engaging in that past practice since you were a kid.

What got you into gold, especially as a kid? was it a parent or a relative or a friend?

For some reason as a kid, i never really did earn much of any kind of income in order to really start to think about any kind of savings, investment or anything, and maybe that had something to do with the rural area in which I grew up?

I think that by the time I left high school, my net worth may have been around $2k, which was the value of my second hand car and a little bit of property that I had acquired by that time... hahahahaha.. .. that was in the mid 80s, so lots of time has passed...

But, even at the end of high school (and soon thereafter), I had become fairly receptive to the idea of investing and saving, once I did get an income, so pretty soon after finishing high school I began to save in various kinds of asset classes - mostly safer types of index funds and government bonds, but for some reason (maybe just bad ones) I never really did get into gold or other PMs - even though I did seriously toy with the idea in the early 2000s, but somehow I was talked out of the idea of PMs. On retrospect, I think that it would have been a decent compliment to what I had been doing, but in the end, I think that there can be several ways to diversify your holdings and adapting to personal circumstances that definitely evolve with the passage of time.

[JayJuanGee]

(01-25-2017 04:16 PM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

(01-25-2017 12:21 PM)JayJuanGee Wrote:  

Guys here probably already realize that I am quite a bit of a bitcoin enthusiast rather than farting around with gold and silver, but part of that may be with my comfort levels rather than any kind of assessment that either of those might not retain some value over various future crisis scenarios.

I did stumble across what seems to be a fairly interesting recent article, and it seems to be predicting really decent upsurges in gold prices in the coming years... but yeah, we will see, no?

Do guys here think this article makes decent points, or do they see some flaws in the points it is making?

It doesn't really seem to address one of my contentions about gold and silver, which is that even if you hold it in physical form, it continues to be considerably manipulated by various paper deflation forms, and you almost have to expect a near complete Armageddon scenario before the physical forms become more valuable than the paper forms - which I personally don't think that it is a good strategy to invest based on Armageddon-like scenarios because they are the less probable outcomes and I attempt to invest based on what I believe to be more probable outcomes (even though currently unknown, exactly)

https://srsroccoreport.com/historical-of...es-higher/

I've read many gold reports from that site, they have some great insight, but ultimately they are still in the business of selling (their) Gold.

The value of Gold has certainly been suppressed for many many years now, but his math is a bit fuzzy with the oil sleight of hand, production of Gold =/= Oil. Gold may be "worth a hell of a lot more" than the market says, but it's still only worth what the market will pay for it today.

Yes, our entire economy is a debt-based economy with worthless Fiat currency, but it's not going anywhere and financial interests will fight tooth & nail to keep it this way as long as possible. Like the author says, the entire oil industry and world economy would have to collapse before Gold was worth 10-20x it's current value. Peak Oil (when the price of pumping a barrel of oil exceeds the profit) still seems like a long way away.

Still, I believe Gold should be in everyone's investment portfolio, I tend to favor physical assets such as metals & property over stocks, bonds, funds etc. I probably have 20% of my savings in metals, so that may be higher than most, but i'd still recommend owning physical gold for everyone and just finding your own investment level that's comfortable.

Stocks are about peaked out at their highest level in history, smart money is selling right now, there's a massive debt bubble and interest rates are going to get hiked back up....so we are in for some major inflation. If Gold gains 10% (maybe more) in a year and holding inflated dollars loses you 4-5% (maybe more) well the benefit is obvious, as traditionally Gold is the best hedge against inflation. And as Currency Wars are escalating across the globe, and the more governments try to control the money supply and go digital, Gold will be one of the only safe havens and will see a large bounce this year. I know you're a BTC mark, and I love the BTC potential, but I still don't trust the blockchain like I trust an ounce of Gold in my hand. I think a lot of whales will be cashing out of the stock market now that the "free money, 0% interest for bankers" of the last 8 years is over, and once again 401k holders will be stuck holding the bag when the market tanks this year, while the big money transitions to Gold once again.



I think right now we are going through the same cycle that started back at around Jan 09, so if we see a repeat of that time frame I think Gold could ramp up to $2000 in the next 2 years.

I appreciate some of your introspection concerning some of the weaknesses in the article that I had attached, and I still find that it is funny how there is a lot of similar analysis in bitcoin circles regarding irresponsible governments and banks and hedging etc, and so over the coming years, we are going to see how these matters play out - especially figuring how to distribute investment allocations in ways that are comfortable and how they perform.

Regarding allocation, yeah, 20% in PMs does seem like quite a bit (and maybe more common variations might be between 1% and 10%), but sure, your allocation can still be considered fairly reasonable, and depending also on how many different asset classes you are juggling and if you feel comfortable with your various allocations.

Personally, I am comfortable with my current allocations, and I don't really mind whether my portfolio performs better or some other guys are ultimately better allocated than mine.. the main thing is having a comfort level and from time to time, considering whether or not to add or subtract asset classes or to reallocate, if the ratios begin to feel less than comfortable for personal preferences.

[SunW]

Got some metals off very profitable bitcoins. I feel hedged like crazy for the world ending now

[SunW]

Got more metals.

[DamienCasanova]

(05-10-2017 09:47 AM)SunW Wrote:  

Got more metals.

Now is a great time to buy, gold and silver are at lows for the year, and with all the market and political volatility in the future you can bet they will pop again soon. I bought some gold and silver about a week ago, Silver especially seemed very cheap at around $16.

[SunW]

Yep. Whenever this thread isn't popular, that's when I buy.

[Tail Gunner]

(05-10-2017 10:17 AM)DamienCasanova Wrote:  

(05-10-2017 09:47 AM)SunW Wrote:  

Got more metals.

Now is a great time to buy, gold and silver are at lows for the year, and with all the market and political volatility in the future you can bet they will pop again soon. I bought some gold and silver about a week ago, Silver especially seemed very cheap at around $16.

You might want to wait another month and re-evaluate. It is possible, although not guaranteed, that a major price correction is now occurring.

It is possible that some junior mining companies' stock prices may drop below 2015's historical lows (hard to believe considering the historic nature of those lows). This may create a selling panic in precious metals in general as the weak hands hit their stops and flee the market, which might create a good time to buy. I will be watching closely. Several analysts that I follow are predicting a price drop into June (the degree of the price drop is the big question). This is not one of those analysts, but simply another article that I just happened to read on the topic this morning:

http://mailchi.mp/futuremoneytrends/your...6c2471da81

BTW: The idea of Margin of Safety mentioned in this article is an often overlooked fundamental concept of successful investing. I follow this principle myself: I seldom invest, but when I do -- it involves a large Margin of Safety, i.e., low risk (little down side) combined with a high probability of success. If the price of junior miner shares tank significantly within the next month, it could present such an investment opportunity (not only in junior miners, but also possibly in the price of actual gold and silver).

"Margin of Safety is the most important term in finance, according to Warren Buffett and his mentor, Benjamin Graham. Essentially, the idea is that no investment -- and certainly no trade -- is bulletproof, therefore the cheaper you can buy it, the better."

http://mailchi.mp/futuremoneytrends/your...6c2471da81

This is also known as Asymmetric Trades: trades that have the potential for large gains if they are correct, but only a limited loss if they are wrong.

[Jeeves]

I’m just getting into precious metals and recently made my first purchase, which should be arriving in a few days. Since I’m new, I went for the relatively cheap generic rounds and bars, but I definitely want to add things like Silver Eagles or Canadian Maple Leafs to my stack in the future. Do any of you employ any specific buying strategies, like buying generic for weight at some times and buying more expensive government silver at others?

My idea is that I want to add 30 oz. per month (rather than a fixed dollar amount), so costs will vary month-to-month. However, the percentages I’ll be paying over spot will diminish/increase depending on the type of silver I’m buying. So, I’m considering an accumulation plan (up to roughly 400 oz., more depending on how things go) that involves buying generic and discounted bullion when prices are low and then alternatively buying something that carries a higher premium (~$3.00 over spot) when prices are higher. Is this sound?

To give you an idea of what I’m thinking, at a spot of 16.70 [today], If I can get a generic ten ounce bar and 20 rounds for $527.20 ($177.40 + $349.80); those will total to 5.23% premium over spot (real quotes were used here). On the other hand, I could buy 20 American Eagles and 10 Canadian Maple Leafs for $590.60 ($395.80 + $194.80… real quotes too), representing a total of 17.88% over spot. The difference between the two purchases would be $63.40 (extra 12.65% over spot for government silver).

Assuming constant premiums over spot, which in reality tend to reflect “+dollars” rather than “+percentages,” the following can be adopted for our purposes given the above information as a standard for comparison:

-(20) rounds = spot + $15.80 ($0.79 over spot/oz.)
-10 oz. bar = spot + $10.40 ($1.04 over spot/oz.)
-(20) American Eagles = spot + $61.80 ($3.09 over spot/oz.)
-(10) Canadian Maple Leafs = spot + $27.80 ($2.78 over spot/oz.)

Now for a hypothetical, if silver increases, say to $18.00 per oz. and the dollar premiums are consistent for rounds and government silver, then wouldn’t it make more sense for me (given my buying strategy of 30 oz. per month and an ownership interest in both generic and government bullion) to purchase government silver instead of generic? I’m interested in owning both types of silver, otherwise I’d just go generic or “junk” all day if I were only interested in weight.

The math on the hypothetical would be $18.00 spot, so $180+$10.40 for 10 oz. bar = $190.40; $360+$15.80 for 20 rounds = $375.80. And $190.40+$375.80 = $566.20 (4.85% over spot).

On the other hand, 20 American Eagles and 10 Canadian Maple Leafs could be had for a total of $629.60 ($421.80+$207.80), representing a total of 16.59% over spot. The dollar difference between the two purchases would be the same as above: $63.40, but it would represent a smaller premium difference between the two (11.74%) and thus a smaller premium paid for government silver when it’s a quasi-planned purchase.

Given this buying strategy, which I adapted from the “dollar cost average” investing strategy (in theory I think they’re very similar), as silver spot increases, so would my interest in government silver, and as silver spot falls I’ll be accumulating generic rounds and bars.

This all depends on where one decides to place the “fulcrum” between generic and government silver (or whatever you’re interested in). For me, now, I’m satisfied going with my initial purchase at ~$16.90 spot and working around that in the coming months/year. If the bottom falls out from silver, then I’ll keep buying generic rounds and bars in the following months. If silver miraculously rebounds in the next few months, then I’ll start looking at US and Canadian government silver. I’ll probably get an Austrian ‘Philharmonic’ for the hell of it in any case just because I’ll enjoy owning it.

What do you think? How do you all strategize these things?

[Tail Gunner]

(06-22-2017 10:29 PM)Jeeves Wrote:  

What do you think? How do you all strategize these things?

You never stated your reason for buying silver, so your "strategy" is hard to decipher and, therefore, your question is impossible to answer.

In my case, I see holding gold and silver bullion purely as a form of insurance for when the next worldwide financial calamity occurs, which is sure to be a real earthquake compared to the tremors from 2008 and 2000 (but certainly not the end of the world as we know it). [Read the recent book by James Rickards, "The New Case for Gold," where he uses the tremors / earthquake analogy to great effect.]

So, my goal is to have bulk silver in a safe vault that is independent of the banking system in a safe stable jurisdiction. As such, I want the maximum amount of silver for my money (i.e., at the lowest possible spread). I am still willing to pay a little bit more, however, for a higher quality product. For example, why buy average .999 fine 100-ounce silver bars if you can pay a dime more per ounce and get a Royal Canadian Mint bar that is .9999 fine. When I sell, I should recover that small extra premium and then some.

Many people argue that you will recover the higher spreads used to buy higher quality one-ounce coins when you sell. Who knows. But under the scenario against which I am buying silver as insurance, who really cares? People will buy silver out of panic and fear near a market top regardless of quality as a hedge against impending financial peril, so I want the maximum number of ounces of silver for my money. As such, my purchases are strategy dependent. You goals may differ.

[Jeeves]

My reasons are kind of vague, but I suppose they’re primarily driven by what you said. I like the idea of having a semi-liquid store of value that’s readily accessible (in my home) and acts as a hedge against financial calamity. I’m not betting on the calamity quite yet, but I don’t want to be blindsided by it either, so a little preparation is in order.

I’m in the process of a mass diversification of my savings, which are all cash deposits at the moment. I’m going to invest in stocks, keep a few paychecks in the bank for regular expenses and a rainy day fund, keep a store of cash and silver at home for a torrential downpour fund, and the bulk in dividend paying stocks.

Basically, I don’t want all my money in cash and stocks. I’ve only just begun, so who really knows where I’ll go with it, but right now I see myself stacking silver as a hobby just as much as a hedge. This is part of the reason I’m not planning on buying just for weight. Another reason I’m interested in government silver has to do with the issue of recognizability--government silver strikes me as carrying a bit more in the way of liquidity since most people will know what it is compared to a generic round.

You can see how my purpose for stacking is wishy-washy and I guess that’s what I was trying to account for by planning to adjust my buying patterns for relatively high and low spot prices.

Thanks for the recommendation, I’ll definitely check out that book.

[Jeeves]

(06-22-2017 10:29 PM)Jeeves Wrote:  

...Is this sound?

Well, I can answer that now: No, it's not sound.

I made the comparison way more muddled than it needed to be. In the end, the percentages became misleading and resulted in some dubious mathematical reasoning. If the premiums are constant, then there is no way to save money except for spot to fall or to choose different silver with a lower premium at any given time.

All else equal, it will not matter in which month the generic was bought or the Government coins, they will equal the same total cost if I'm purchasing the same mix.

Just wanted to clear that up rather than leaving this second grade mathematical blunder laying around.

[Tail Gunner]

(07-18-2016 11:46 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(07-18-2016 09:56 PM)tarquin Wrote:  

(07-15-2016 09:45 PM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(07-15-2016 09:15 PM)rudebwoy Wrote:  

If you are not buying Silver, then I don't know what you are waiting for.

Whenever a market bottoms there is almost always a significant price retracement -- often down 70%-75% from the new high. The smart money always confirms that a bottom is in before committing funds. Then the smart money buys during the first major price correction, which in the case of gold and silver will most likely happen before the end of this year.

Professional traders know that it is a fool's errand to try to pick a market bottom. So, they wait for a confirmation of the market bottom and then buy at a price retracement, knowing that buying at an exact market bottom is irrelevant when new bull markets last for many years -- or even a decade or more.

http://etfdb.com/etf-trading-strategies/...ry-points/

Can you elaborate, Tail Gunner? Are you saying that the price will decrease back to the $14/15 area before a long term bullish trend?

What I was saying is that while a new bull market in precious metals has likely already begun, historically the odds favor a price decline in the neighborhood of 70% or so from the recent highs. Every bull market — especially new ones — often retrace (decline) as much as 70 percent of their first leg up. For example, if the first leg up was $100, you might expect a price retracement of as much as $70. So investors will likely have a second buying opportunity before the bull run resumes. Of course, there are no guarantees -- just probabilities based on historical price action.

Well, here we go. I discussed price retracements earlier this year (for gold and silver) and the process has begun (after price was stuck in a very narrow trading range for many months -- like a coiled spring).

If silver hits a double-bottom (goes below $14/ounce) I will back up the truck. This would potentially represent an asymmetric trade, i.e., a trade with very limited risk to the downside as opposed to huge upside potential.

Here is an article just published today that explains what I expect (although there is no guarantee).

http://www.ino.com/blog/2017/12/gold-sil...=blogclick

People get excited when assets go up in price. I get excited when markets drop, which always represents a buying opportunity!
________

BTW: On a related note, this video is only available only until Thursday. I am not sure about what investment opportunity Doug Casey is teasing, but his statements in these two videos are entirely accurate.

He discusses mean reversion theory toward the historical average. He makes several key historical points:

1) Mel Faber studied countries with stock markets that declined 80% or more. On average, those countries saw their stock indices rebound by at least 120% in the next three years after the market bottom.

2) Faber also found similar huge rebounds in different industry groups. He studied U.S. industry groups going back to the 1920’s. When a U.S. industry group fell by 80% or more from a peak, the average return in three years was more than 170%.

Think about the profit opportunities just by using speculative funds (i.e., money that you could afford to lose). The suckers buy assets in hyped manipulated overheated markets and then see their paper profits implode during the inevitable market crash. The smart money buys distressed assets at a market bottom.

http://www.caseyresearchtraining.com/tra...mt721.html

[rosario]

I also own physical gold and silver for a number of reasons:

1) Insurance. If my wife leaves me, I lose my job, have some bad stuff happen in my life, need to start over, I will have some protection. Everyone reading this should have (if they can) 3-6 months of currency stashed for bad times as well.

2) Inflation protection. Gold and silver will act as an inflation hedge against the central bankers who want to mess with currency.

3) Children inheritance- Before I pass on, I can give gold and silver to my kids as an inheritance with no worries about inheritance taxes or probate.

4) My way of fighting the system. Everyone values things in their home currencies. Dollars Pounds and Euros. The currencies have no standards. Most people you speak to hate gold and silver. These people usually hate standards. I believe in standards. Gold and silver are standards.

5) No counterparty risk. You have it in your hand, you own it.

I dont really worry about the fluctuations of gold and silver. I have them and know they will be there when I need them. Cant say the same about bonds, stock, currencies, or cryptos