speakeasy: To be honest, Australia is failing. It's just a few years behind places like the U.S., propped up by selling resources to China. If/when the wheels come off that even slightly, there is going to be carnage.
Two governments ago, the centre right party at the time got kicked out of power. The budget was in surplus.
The last government (centre left) ran up the debt again and was a walking train wreck for many reasons (including some pretty bitter in-fighting). They got demolished at the last election for a number of reasons, but one of the main issues was that the cente right party promised to get the economy back on track.
The centre right government just released a very unpopular budget that contained -- shock horror -- all sorts of public spending cuts and tax increases (not aided by falling export revenues to China, and I also think they're dreaming about their forward projections for growth in the next few years). They have handled the politics of this badly (including flip-flopping on several issues). They should have spent the past seven months hammering home the message that there was going to be a fair bit of pain involved. Now, everyone is all over them, especially the media.
The balance of power in the Senate is controlled by all sorts of independents and minor parties. Many have openly said that they will block the budget. It's looking like there is going to be a constitutional crisis. Ultimately, if the standoff continues, one of two things will happen.
Either the government itself will dissolve both houses of parliament (a double dissolution) and call a new election, or the Governor-General may do it instead. The last time that
happened was in 1975 (when the shoe was on the other foot and the cente left were in power and the centre right cockblocked them). People have never shut up about it since.
The government has been handed an extremely poisoned chalice in this. Even if they get kicked out in a new election, their replacement will still need to address the debt...or not. I guess they could just kick the can down the road and not address it. Then everyone would love them. This is where I finally get to the crux of this whole post.
The current government, like them or not, was handed a mandate. Now everyone is whining like a stuck pig for actually having the gall to give people what they not only knew they needed, but voted for (though there was a massive amount of sour grapes on election night from those who didn't vote for those who got in). Underlying most Western societies right now is an incredible amount of narcissism (channeling 2Wycked here). It's all about
me,
me,
me and
my services and
my tax cuts;
you, however, need to have
your services cut and
your taxes increased because that's for the good of the nation (well, let's be honest, it's good for
me). Or it's that some people really are stupid and think that money grows on trees. It's also worth noting that during a decade-long economic boom that was the biggest in a century, Australians have been busy spending such wealth on boozy trips to Bali, big screen TVs from China, or speculating on property.
I used to think that Australians weren't as far gone as Americans in this respect. Now I think it's just that China has been propping that illusion up all along. If Australia hadn't had massive seams of coal or iron ore to export, it would probably be just as bad as many other countries in the West.
When you get a culture that is corrupt to its core, the economics soon follow. Only external factors may prolong the illusion. Australia is in for a very big fall this decade if/when sugar daddy China has any problems of its own. Mark my words.