[svenski7]

(04-30-2014 08:31 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(04-30-2014 03:23 AM)Excelsior Wrote:  

Largest GDP by PPP makes for a neat talking point and is an accomplishment (regardless of the size factor). I'm really not surprised that this milestone may be passed right about now given recent economic trends and China's size (4 times that of the USA), but this doesn't change much in the long term IMO. The PRC is already passing the Lewis Turning Point and its demographic dividend will soon quit paying out. China will still get old before it gets rich.

Yeah but what does that turning point matter? America passed it's own Lewis Turning Point a long time ago. We've only made up for it with immigrants that have destroyed the culture and sucked the welfare system dry.

China can easily start taking in African immigrants or, instead of importing Africans, just create sweat-shops in Africa. They started doing this nearly a decade ago. So even if they don't have more of their own labor they will find it somewhere else, and since China has zero morals they will basically enslave the Africans for their own economic gain.

Meanwhile, the USA's economic continues to shrink every year. But most people are fooled into thinking that it's growing when they see positive GDP numbers, because these numbers do not account for inflation. If you take inflation into account, America's GDP has been negative for over a decade.

This is easiest to see when you evaluate America's GDP as a percentage of the world GDP:

http://acrossthestreetnet.wordpress.com/...-yourself/



Basically, America's elites are sucking all the wealth out of the middle class through home mortgages, student loans, and car loans. Meanwhile none of the money they take is reinvested into the American labor force, instead they find cheap third-world labor overseas to produce shit and sell back in America. This means America's money is slowly drained from two fronts.

On top of this, the immigrantion policy we have is retarded, claiming that we need "more labor to do the jobs American's won't do," when in reality our unemployment is at record levels so more immigrants has zero effect on reducing labor costs.

Everyone says immigration is to reduce labor costs in America and is therefore supported by big business, but this is a lie. America has more labor than it knows what to do with. Both educated and uneducated labor are at all time highs. College degrees at all time highs, and so is the population size.

The real reason immigrants are being let in is because it has become politically impossible to kick them out. Republicans know they cannot kick out the hispanics, because conservative whites are completely outnumbered. Thus liberal whites + immigrant hordes = more votes than conservative whites, so republicans are trying to pander to future immigrant votes by being pro-amnesty.

It won't work, of course, since all the new immigrants will vote democrat, but this is just one more step toward's America's next civil war.

Regardless America's economy is shit, and inflation is the only thing creating the appearance of a recovery. America is equally bad as China, probably much worse. China's demographic problem can easily be overcome with immigration or slave-labor sweat-shops in Africa, but America's problems can no longer be overcome by any political policy.

Once America goes bankrupt (i.e. hyperinflation), people are going to get very violent.

Samseau, as Althone pointed out, the importance you place upon Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in measuring economic progress is unfounded.

The Macroeconomics 101 definition of GDP is:

The monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all of private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.

Population of US = ~325 million
Population of China = ~1.1 billion (four times the US amount)

If the GDP of China and the US are equal, it means that the economic output of every US worker is equivalent to the economic output of four Chinese workers.

Have you ever been to Southeast Asia? The work ethic sucks and there are tons of inefficiencies.

A better measure of a country's global economic output might be Gross National Product (GNP) which attempts to measure the economic output of all things done by American citizens both domestically and abroad. This would account for all the jobs that companies such as Google and Microsoft create abroad whose income is then enhanced by said operations. Another example would be Japanese GNP when considering all of the Toyota manufacturing plants located around the world (US included). Unfortunately, GNP is extremely hard to calculate (just like GDP).

What foreign endeavors would add to China's GNP? I truly don't know. It is obvious that they are heavily investing in Africa and the US but I would still bet that their GNP would not be as impressive as that of Japan or the US.

You've also overlooked the quality of life factor. How many people on this forum would give up their Western citizenship to go live in China because their GDP has become the largest in the world? None. I'm pretty sure it was you who was hating on the RVFers over in Bangkok. That's a clean city compared to most in China.

The price of China's growth has been the pollution these factories have created. Some areas have pollution on par with nuclear fallout conditions.

People vote with their feet. Where are people trying to go? Where do the Chinese want to go? It seems everyone is still trying to get into the US — legally and illegally. Who's trying to get into China? A few North Korean escapees who from there are probably trying to get asylum in the US. I won't even go into what happens to them if the Chinese catch them.

I also recall you were an avid reader of alt-news sites such as Drudge and Zerohedge. That's great, I read them as well. So then you will remember the attention that Zerohedge has been giving the shadow banking / QE to infinity going on in the Chinese provinces. According to these libertadian sites its even worse than the US financial system.

The US has problems but China is a powder keg in many regards.

[Suits]

(05-01-2014 02:03 PM)Osiris Wrote:  

And Chinese citizens can own guns. Gun ranges are becoming increasingly popular across the country. It's as of now, it's prohibitively expensive hobby, 12RMB/bullet. Despite this, gun ranges are popping up all over. Hell, I went to one right next door to the Confucius Temple in Qufu, and saw another one when I was in Hainan.

Are you sure that they can personally own fire arms? My understanding is that despite the increasing popularity of gun ranges, you have to rent a range gun. As well, although there are a few ranges here and there, the only one open to public use in Beijing, for example, is an hour's drive north of the city and there can be long lines on a busy day (any weekend).

[Alpharius]

(05-01-2014 08:42 PM)Suits Wrote:  

(05-01-2014 02:03 PM)Osiris Wrote:  

And Chinese citizens can own guns. Gun ranges are becoming increasingly popular across the country. It's as of now, it's prohibitively expensive hobby, 12RMB/bullet. Despite this, gun ranges are popping up all over. Hell, I went to one right next door to the Confucius Temple in Qufu, and saw another one when I was in Hainan.

Are you sure that they can personally own fire arms? My understanding is that despite the increasing popularity of gun ranges, you have to rent a range gun. As well, although there are a few ranges here and there, the only one open to public use in Beijing, for example, is an hour's drive north of the city and there can be long lines on a busy day (any weekend).

Hunting rifles can be purchased if you can get your hands on a hunting permit, or if you belong to a sports organization. Not exactly easy access, but available for the right price (like everything else in China, pretty much).

[Samseau]

(05-01-2014 07:05 PM)svenski7 Wrote:  

snip

GDP or GNP is irrelevant, they are too easily gamed by inflation and make-work jobs. What matters is GDP as a percentage of the world economy. That is the key metric because it gives a relative picture that cannot be obscured with inflation or make-work jobs.

All of America's growth right now is from debt. Take away the debt and everything dies.

China is the largest creditor nation in the world. They have nothing to worry about, they've got a huge cushion.

China is in the position the USA was prior to WW2.

I agree that China has cooked its books to a huge degree. They've got ghost towns, cities, and shopping malls. But it's still far less waste than America's diploma mills, unsold housing, and endless spending on useless consumer items.

Economists can measure the amount of trade and exporting a nation does, and China exports more than nearly any other country due to their ability to turn their citizens into slaves via their endless currency depreciation.

Compare that America, which has one of the highest trade deficits in the world. (If not the highest)

If America goes bankrupt, China can just start consuming their own goods instead of selling it to America. China has the infrastructure to be self-sufficient while America will descend into a world of no jobs and no money.

People are going to be blown away at how fast it happens, but that's because most people have no understanding of how economics work.

It's not about who consumes, but who produces. He who produces always wins in the end.

[Tail Gunner]

(05-02-2014 02:25 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

If America goes bankrupt, China can just start consuming their own goods instead of selling it to America.

You made some good points, but this one was way over the top. Do you really think that China wants to depend on an export economy? If China could make this happen, it would have done so long ago.

This is the Chinese leadership's freakin' dream. It would solve almost all of its many problems. But that is all it is -- a dream. Most Chinese are still dirt poor and have no purchasing power. There is also no retirement system, so any extra income goes towards purchasing gold, not consumer goods.

[Valhalla]

china can export cheaply because it devalues it's currency

[Royale]

^^^Exactly. China is purposely devaluing their currency.

Reuters

Quote:

Washington has been pressing China for years to allow its currency to trade at stronger values. A weak yuan makes Chinese exports cheaper for U.S. consumers at the expense of U.S. producers. A weaker yuan also makes Chinese consumers less able to buy foreign goods.

By playing this devaluation charade with the U.S., it's indirectly disrupting the trade statutes established by both countries. At the same time, since they have the largest manufacturing base in the world (SOURCE), it seems to me that they are just trying to solidify their economic markets. This helps to explain their high GDP, but like many others said before, it doesn't take into account quality of life, life expectancy, etc. The country may be making economic strides, but I don't think it'll unseat the USA anytime soon. On another note, who's up to day game?

[Samseau]

(05-02-2014 03:00 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 02:25 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

If America goes bankrupt, China can just start consuming their own goods instead of selling it to America.

You made some good points, but this one was way over the top. Do you really think that China wants to depend on an export economy? If China could make this happen, it would have done so long ago.

This is the Chinese leadership's freakin' dream. It would solve almost all of its many problems. But that is all it is -- a dream. Most Chinese are still dirt poor and have no purchasing power. There is also no retirement system, so any extra income goes towards purchasing gold, not consumer goods.

Do you not see the big picture? Most Chinese citizens are already poor. They are not going to lose anything if the world slips into depression. China produces enough food to feed itself.

Chinese citizens buy gold because they know their currency is worthless. Citizens who own gold will be able to switch into a new currency much easier than citizens without gold.

I think China keeps up the devaluation game because it satisfies two roles:

1. Keeps Chinese citizens poor and unable to stand up to their own govt.
2. It bankrupts America.

If America was actually smart enough to place tariffs on Chinese goods, in order to prevent the slavery of Chinese citizens, the world would be a much better place both in America and China. But instead America's government caters to big businesses who wants free trade. Thus the only effective American response has been to print lots of money, which causes the Chinese government to devalue their currency even faster.

The effects of printing money in America have been extremely lopsided, however, with most of the freshly printed cash going to the top 6 American banks. These banks don't know how to spend their reserves, so instead of loaning it out to anyone they sit on their cash. That is why current excess bank reserves are at all time highs yet everyone is broke. This is why wealth concentration is also at all time highs in the top 1% of America: it's all a result of money printing.

This was the exact same situation in Weimar Germany before hyperinflation hit.

Proof:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Money_suppl...rve_System

   

^ Look at the chart. See the following: "Notes and coins in bank vaults (Vault Cash)" and "Federal Reserve Bank credit (required reserves and excess reserves not physically present in banks)"?

Those two items are only measured by "MB." What is MB? MB stands for "Monetary Base." What does the current monetary base look like?

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BASE/

It's been quadrupled since 2008. And it's going up at a breakneck pace:

   

Currently our banks are sitting on an enormous pile of cash... so why is everyone starving for cash? Why does it feel like deflation instead of inflation?

Because inflation is a formula of (total money) x (money velocity) = (total supply of goods and services). Money velocity is the rate at which money is circulated through the economy.

So although money supply is at all time highs, how much is actually going through the economy?

   

None. Money velocity is at all time lows. It has never been lower in all of recorded American history! Note that during the 1990's, when everyone felt rich, money velocity was at all time highs. The 90's in America were truly good times, all established by Reagan's policies in the 80's. That's why there's a continuous upward trend from 1986 to 1997. However, Reagan created this prosperity with the sin of debt, and once that bubble popped it has been a downward spiral ever since.

Regardless, low velocity is what is containing inflation right now. Because if money velocity were to increase on top of the insane excess reserves American banks have, inflation would start to spiral out of control. Gas and food would quickly double and triple in prices.

Additionally, not only is money not being circulated but the amount of money currently in the hands of people outside of banks are at all time highs!

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2

   

Do you guys not see how epic this is? America is beyond fucked. How can the economy be in such a deep recession despite being flooded with cash?

Why is money not circulating through the economy despite the fact that more money is on the sidelines than at any other time in history?

Why are prices rising right now despite the fact that money velocity is at all time lows? Gas is up over 50% since 2008. So are most food items. This should be impossible in a recessionary environment, but if you quadruple the bank reserves that money is going to leak out and cause inflation no matter what.

The FED doesn't know what it's doing. They are trying to force feed the American economy money when money is the last thing America needs. America needs circulation of its money, not merely more money. America needs jobs (the only method we have so far of circulating money efficiently) and not printed cash.

And because money isn't circulating properly, the government cannot collect any taxes to pay for its expenditures which is why the government has to take on more and more debt. Eventually this debt becomes unserviceable due to rising interest rates, or the money velocity increases and causes massive inflation. The outcome is the same either way: the destruction of the dollar (hyperinflation).

This brings us back to China. China's currency, and economy, works on the premise of being undervalued. So when the great global reset comes (it's mathematically guaranteed at this point, it was a while ago), China isn't going to suffer much if at all, while America's entire way of life will be destroyed forever.

China has nowhere to go but up, and America has nowhere to go but down. The day America did it's bailouts and started to print cash was the day America was doomed.

[Orion]

Chinese have adopted measures to lessen dependence of their economy on exports. According to them, it will take time. Goal is to increase domestic consuming and spending, which would obviously, require raise in purchasing power. They are also going to centralize state further (strip regional leaders of authority) but will introduce elections for one of the less important bodies, if i remember correctly. Among other goals set on party congress, are increasing naval power, reducing pollution and environmental damage, improving human rights record and reforming social services.

Yes, overall ambitious goals, but i think they consider increase in domestic purchasing power as a top priority, as they are desperate to stop being "workshop of the west". Their economy is too dependent on global demand, which makes China vulnerable to crisis's and recessions in developed world. Apparently, they are even willing to allow drop in GDP growth temporarily, to achieve that goal, which was taboo in the past.

[Tail Gunner]

(05-02-2014 08:22 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 03:00 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 02:25 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

If America goes bankrupt, China can just start consuming their own goods instead of selling it to America.

You made some good points, but this one was way over the top. Do you really think that China wants to depend on an export economy? If China could make this happen, it would have done so long ago.

This is the Chinese leadership's freakin' dream. It would solve almost all of its many problems. But that is all it is -- a dream. Most Chinese are still dirt poor and have no purchasing power. There is also no retirement system, so any extra income goes towards purchasing gold, not consumer goods.

Do you not see the big picture? Most Chinese citizens are already poor. They are not going to lose anything if the world slips into depression. China produces enough food to feed itself.

.....

This brings us back to China. China's currency, and economy, works on the premise of being undervalued. So when the great global reset comes (it's mathematically guaranteed at this point, it was a while ago), China isn't going to suffer much if at all, while America's entire way of life will be destroyed forever.

China has nowhere to go but up, and America has nowhere to go but down. The day America did it's bailouts and started to print cash was the day America was doomed.

I actually agree with almost everything that you said about the U.S. economy. Good red pill economic thinking. You are obviously in the top 1/10th of one-percent when it comes to economic thought.

Having said that, I still disagree with you about China. It is a massive command and control economy. They ALWAYS fail. Name me one such economy, especially on the scale of China or the Soviet Union, that has ever exceeded.

What are the odds of a bunch of murderous numbskulls successfully navigating the dangerous and chaotic economic waters that you discussed? Next to nill.

In the long run, China is here to stay as an economic powerhouse. But something will eventually go horribly wrong with their massive command and control economy -- and this will necessitate huge social and economic upheavals before China eventually gets back on track.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

I won't get into the fine analysis that Samseau has posted above, but I'll just add one reason for believing in China over USA: China is good at decision-making.

The USA has never been in such a political paralysis before, with a record number of filibusters and complete disunity where everyone is just interested in stuffing their pockets (to a lesser or bigger degree).

Meanwhile, the Chinese government efficiently passes whatever measures it needs. Fiscal stimulus? Done in a few days. Direct and indirect subsidies for green energy industry? Established before you can blink. Deciding to develop a 5th generation fighter? Project created. Build an important dam, railroad or airport? No decades wasted on permits, ecological studies, protests and lobbies.

Sure, China might be polluted and its officials prone to corruption, but it gets shit done. It's one of the rare points of light in being a ruthless communist dictatorship. Its decisions might be saddled with corruption, but it's better than having to wait 5-10 years for each decision to be made at all (just look at Obamacare - you might like or not like it, but it took almost a decade to be passed - how efficient is that?).

Unless almost all decisions made by China turn out to be suicidal and almost all decisions made by the USA turn out to be masterstrokes, I can't see the USA coming out on top unless serious changes are made in its governance. And I can't see such changes anywhere on the horizon either.

[Tail Gunner]

(05-02-2014 09:49 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

I won't get into the fine analysis that Samseau has posted above, but I'll just add one reason for believing in China over USA: China is good at decision-making.

Anyone can be good in the short to intermediate term, just like the handful of new forex traders each year who seem to magically turn $10,000 into $250,000 -- and then eventually go bust.

Again, name me one command and control economy, especially on the scale of China or the Soviet Union, that has ever exceeded. It has never happened. It will never happen. Because market forces always win in the end.

All of the very serious problems correctly identified by Samseau in regard to the U.S. economy were caused by very limited government interference by the Fed in the free market -- at least when measured against the extreme government interference of the Chinese government.

So, multiply the eventual chaos caused by China in the free market by a factor of at least ten.

My disagreement with Samseau is that while he correctly applies valid economic analysis to the U.S. economy, he does not do the same for China.

Having said that, there is no reason that China cannot stave off serious economic repercussions for many years -- just as the U.S. did for many decades. But China will eventually pay the price for its severely distorted command economy. The markets always win in the end.

[Tail Gunner]

(05-02-2014 09:49 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

Meanwhile, the Chinese government efficiently passes whatever measures it needs. Fiscal stimulus? Done in a few days. Direct and indirect subsidies for green energy industry? Established before you can blink. Deciding to develop a 5th generation fighter? Project created. Build an important dam, railroad or airport? No decades wasted on permits, ecological studies, protests and lobbies.

Sure, China might be polluted and its officials prone to corruption, but it gets shit done. It's one of the rare points of light in being a ruthless communist dictatorship. Its decisions might be saddled with corruption, but it's better than having to wait 5-10 years for each decision to be made at all (just look at Obamacare - you might like or not like it, but it took almost a decade to be passed - how efficient is that?).

This is the very same argument made by totalitarian regimes throughout history. Trade us your freedom for economic security.

Mussolini made the trains run on time for the first time in Italian history. Hitler solved hyper-inflation and turned Germany into an economic powerhouse. The Soviet Union provided guaranteed (low quality) cradle-to-grave care.

Do this -- or I will put a bullet in your head. That always works for awhile, because it is very efficient. But, in the long run, even the threat of a bullet in the head cannot overcome the inevitable march of the free market towards equilibrium -- and economic reality.

Good discussion. I wish more guys on this forum gave thought to economics. They do not see the direct benefit to their lives in making appropriate long-term financial decisions.

[Orion]

(05-02-2014 10:02 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 09:49 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

I won't get into the fine analysis that Samseau has posted above, but I'll just add one reason for believing in China over USA: China is good at decision-making.

Anyone can be good in the short to intermediate term, just like the handful of new forex traders each year who seem to magically turn $10,000 into $250,000 -- and then eventually go bust.

Again, name me one command and control economy, especially on the scale of China or the Soviet Union, that has ever exceeded. It has never happened. It will never happen. Because market forces always win in the end.

All of the very serious problems correctly identified by Samseau in regard to the U.S. economy were caused by very limited government interference by the Fed in the free market -- at least when measured against the extreme government interference of the Chinese government.

So, multiply the eventual chaos caused by China in the free market by a factor of at least ten.

My disagreement with Samseau is that while he correctly applies valid economic analysis to the U.S. economy, he does not do the same for China.

Having said that, there is no reason that China cannot stave off serious economic repercussions for many years -- just as the U.S. did for many decades. But China will eventually pay the price for its severely distorted command economy. The markets always win in the end.

I do not understand ? China is market economy. It supplies world's demands in variety of shit.

Problem China faces is how to reduce it's vulnerability to global demand.

I do not see how is it better or superior to solve macro-economic issues by letting some financial sharks and other blackmail rouge credit rating house do calculations for you.

Let me say highly unpopular thing with rightists - you are getting too much brainwashed by free market cultists in universities. Guys, market forces do not create initiative, nor do they create new values. Market forces are there to supply demands with supplies. And that's it. It's a closed circuit. Market strongly favors safe long term investments, that will pay off.

And folks - shit that didn't pay off built the world as we know it.

Free market ultra sectarians are just like Catholic church denying the world is round. Although economies world wide are getting billions out of poverty through initiative, decision making, sometimes brute force economic reforms - free market cultists still deny results, apocalyptically predicting imminent collapse and chaos.

In fact, the only risk from collapse and chaos comes from foreign pressure and financial machinations orchestrated from same power centers where those free market economists come from. They are the ones creating the chaos they are pointing at.

Of course, i do acknowledge that free market is the only model of economy today that can generate stable and prosperous societies - But it's not perfect model. Nothing on this world is perfect. When problems appear, they need to be solved. And crossing your legs and stating "nah, market will solve it" is conformism and decadence.

[Samseau]

(05-02-2014 09:49 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

The USA has never been in such a political paralysis before, with a record number of filibusters and complete disunity where everyone is just interested in stuffing their pockets (to a lesser or bigger degree).

No, you are forgetting that one other time America was in a political paralysis.

Right in the build-up before the Civil War.

[Samseau]

(05-02-2014 10:35 AM)Orion Wrote:  

Let me say highly unpopular thing with rightists - you are getting too much brainwashed by free market cultists in universities. Guys, market forces do not create initiative, nor do they create new values. Market forces are there to supply demands with supplies. And that's it. It's a closed circuit. Market strongly favors safe long term investments, that will pay off.

Actually, what you've said is extremely popular with "rightists." Conservatives are the biggest critics of economics as a profession.

It's the leftists who worship money. It's the leftists who believe that they can control the economic to bring about heaven on earth. It's leftists and their Marxist ideas about there being no God and believing money and science are all that is necessary for humanity. Whenever you hear a feminist talk, what do they talk about? How women need careers ($$$), how women need to overcome the glass ceiling ($$$), how women need college ($$$), how women need this and that and this and that ($$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$).

I guarantee you most of America's major economists vote Democrat as well.

The left only talks about money. It is the party of money worship.

Conversely, Conservatives are the ones who believe in community values. Conservatives believe in God. They believe in the family. Conservatives believe in the pursuit of knowledge for knowledge's sake. Conservatives believe in the free and open inquiry of ideas, unlike leftists who want to censor everything with political correctness. Conservatives believe money is just one value among many. Conservatives do not believe the government can bring any sort of success to the world merely through economics, because conservatives understand that human nature is much more complex than money worship.

[Tail Gunner]

(05-02-2014 10:35 AM)Orion Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 10:02 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 09:49 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

I won't get into the fine analysis that Samseau has posted above, but I'll just add one reason for believing in China over USA: China is good at decision-making.

Anyone can be good in the short to intermediate term, just like the handful of new forex traders each year who seem to magically turn $10,000 into $250,000 -- and then eventually go bust.

Again, name me one command and control economy, especially on the scale of China or the Soviet Union, that has ever exceeded. It has never happened. It will never happen. Because market forces always win in the end.

All of the very serious problems correctly identified by Samseau in regard to the U.S. economy were caused by very limited government interference by the Fed in the free market -- at least when measured against the extreme government interference of the Chinese government.

So, multiply the eventual chaos caused by China in the free market by a factor of at least ten.

My disagreement with Samseau is that while he correctly applies valid economic analysis to the U.S. economy, he does not do the same for China.

Having said that, there is no reason that China cannot stave off serious economic repercussions for many years -- just as the U.S. did for many decades. But China will eventually pay the price for its severely distorted command economy. The markets always win in the end.

I do not understand ? China is market economy. It supplies world's demands in variety of shit.

If you really believe that China has a market economy this discussion is probably not for you. I say that with all due respect.

China allows just enough free enterprise to stave off a full-fledged rebellion, instead of the hundreds of riots that it endures each year.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

(05-02-2014 10:19 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

This is the very same argument made by totalitarian regimes throughout history. Trade us your freedom for economic security.

That is another point that I was trying to make. People by nature don't like totalitarian regimes, because a desire for at least some freedom is strongly embedded in the human spirit. However, people also by nature don't like being hungry and poor. Thus, if conditions get bad enough in a democracy (i.e. if a democracy flounders in political paralysis and produces abysmal economic results), people are almost guaranteed to opt for totalitarianism in order to get better economic security. It has happened in the Weimar republic 80 years ago, and it is happening in Greece right now.

(the opposite process is also true, of course - see the recent fall of the vastly corrupt and inefficient Ukrainian despot)

Of course, it is a valid argument that the economic results of totalitarianism can't last in the long run and thus it shouldn't be chosen in any case, no matter how bad democracy fucks up things - but that's just you thinking that as a sort of an enlightened citizen. The average person will follow their belly and won't bother with long-term considerations.

Right now, given China's speedy rise and the advancement of its common people (because even though its totalitarian regime has many weaknesses, the current batch of western democracies seems to have even more), I can well see how the Chinese people are glad to tolerate it and find solace in actually getting important things done thanks to totalitarianism. I don't condone this in the moral sense, of course, but that's how it is at the moment. And as long as Politburo keeps producing comparatively better results because of its increased ability at decision-making (in comparison to the paralysed, anemic institutions of Senate & Congress), it's going to stay that way.

[Orion]

(05-02-2014 11:40 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

China allows just enough free enterprise to stave off a full-fledged rebellion, instead of the hundreds of riots that it endures each year.

"Riot" in China is quite a relative thing. China has dozens of million + cities.

Yes, there is enough free enterprise in China - it is a main driving force of Urbanization. Poor peasants who leave villages for big cities in order to find prosperity. It's only a dream for millions, yes. But it is there. Once done it cannot be undone. China realizes (as was stated in previous congress led by new Chairman) that further liberalization of economy is unavoidable. The only thing is - they are not going to move towards it by shock therapy. They are not imbeciles. They want to pass power to domestic entrepreneurs and billionaires, while tightening judicial system and central government. Goal is to increase purchase and spending with domestic citizens, sort of a move towards being a more developed society.

Now they have tons of puzzles to solve on their way. Everyone will try to hamper them down. Maybe they will fail. Who knows. But point is, they are not living in denial. They acknowledged it.

Yes, government will remain central planner of life. Shitty, yes. But only they know how much they want to strip themselves of economical duties they need not be taking care about. It's huge apparatus for god's sake.

Wanna see how things work without it ? Try India.

[Samseau]

Death spiral:









To sum:

Less people working than ever and getting worse. Young people can't find jobs because older workers (boomers) can't retire.

What's sad is that America's problems are quite easy to fix, but since we're a democracy and the people are fools the system is going to die.

[Travesty]

^

A huge reason not to have kids unless you are making bank.

The cost to raise them and maybe even help support after college years is insane and will only get worse as time goes on.

[Pepini]

Name one chinese brand? You can´t. China is a centralized economy. They don´t create wealth. Chinese can imitate, but only in a democracy and free market ideas flow. Unless they become a democracy and free market China will always be behind the economies which are.
This is the one of the biggest challenges China is facing. But how can you manage a 1,4Billion democracy? It´s a dead end. Chinese know about this.

[Orion]

(05-02-2014 06:29 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

Name one chinese brand? You can´t.

Name me one Soviet Union brand.

Quote:

China is a centralized economy. They don´t create wealth.

So where is all this decade long budget surplus coming from, and how the hell did they stack up insane amount of foreign gold and currency reserves.

Quote:

Chinese can imitate, but only in a democracy and free market ideas flow.

Yuri Gagarin disagrees.

Quote:

Unless they become a democracy and free market China will always be behind the economies which are.

No, they used to be behind when Mao ruled with iron fist. Now they changed, and evolved. Today, they are worlds no 1 economy. Are you denying the obvious ? Newspapers around the world are writing about Chinese imminent overtake, yet, people are still stubbornly denying it.

[Pepini]

(05-02-2014 06:46 PM)Orion Wrote:  

(05-02-2014 06:29 PM)Pepini Wrote:  

Name one chinese brand? You can´t.

Name me one Soviet Union brand.

Soviet Union collapsed.

Quote:

China is a centralized economy. They don´t create wealth.

So where is all this decade long budget surplus coming from, and how the hell did they stack up insane amount of foreign gold and currency reserves.

See above posts. Totalitarian regimes work for short period of time. Until they collapse.

Quote:

Chinese can imitate, but only in a democracy and free market ideas flow.

Yuri Gagarin disagrees.

History don´t.

Quote:

Unless they become a democracy and free market China will always be behind the economies which are.

No, they used to be behind when Mao ruled with iron fist. Now they changed, and evolved. Today, they are worlds no 1 economy. Are you denying the obvious ? Newspapers around the world are writing about Chinese imminent overtake, yet, people are still stubbornly denying it.

No they aren´t. European Union is the number 1 economy in the world.
Did you know that chinese workers in factories are tied up in ropes so they don´t hurt themselves when they fall asleep because of the inhuman hours of work?

[Orion]

European Union is not an economy. Only Eurozone can be regarded as an economy, although no one serious does that, because they don't have one policy. Germany tried to introduce one, called Austerity measures, but they were dropped by many, like Spain and Hungary for example.