[MichaelCorleone]

Oh yessss the emerging markets are getting cheaper and cheaper for the USD, Though Moscow still isn't cheap. 2014 and 2015 will be great years to travel for holders of the USD.

[samsamsam]

Keep waiting for your buy signals!

Thanks for the updates, sometimes there is so much info that I miss info like this.

[MichaelCorleone]

I went short the market by going long VIX(volatilty)on Monday made 3.13% today up 12% ytd was up 42% last year. I have my bear suit on, but i don't hold long i am a trader. Will close shorts soon almost did today, numbers out of China sucked tonight too. I called the emerging market tanking a year ago everyone called me crazy they aren't saying that anymore. As long as Yellen stays on the sideline the market is teetering and emerging markets are f'd. When i go long/bullish i will let u know. btw...futures are already down 50 as of now.

I post the emerging markets stuff for you guys bc thats where u guys travel the most and figured it'd b of interest to u all.

Spent last week in Aspen and will spend two weeks in the EU in March, thinking Munich, Vienna and Prague (though considering Warsaw) cant believe how cheap hotels r in march in the EU. Then I'll have to get a damn job, had an interview today at a big asset manager but they told me i was overqualified, i was actually happy bc i want one more month to travel. The Latvian wife is so damn cool about me traveling...my neighbor asked me, "how does she let you do that...I wouldn't even have the nerve to ask my wife to do things solo like that." I replied, "Because you were stupid enough to marry an American....." Plus my wife is 5'9" and about 130 and his wife is a typical American at 5'4" and probably 160 pounds......

[Wayout]

From what I understand and I am not an expert in this field,but Russia has tons of Currency reserves plus all the Oil and Gas they can sell to keep the RUB at any value against USD they wish!
Two months ago I also witnessed almost a mass dollar buying taking place in Russia by average people. How can average people predict something like this? Should I be buying cheap RUB now since I am in Russia?

[Corroncho]

(02-20-2014 05:30 AM)Wayout Wrote:  

From what I understand and I am not an expert in this field,but Russia has tons of Currency reserves plus all the Oil and Gas they can sell to keep the RUB at any value against USD they wish!
Two months ago I also witnessed almost a mass dollar buying taking place in Russia by average people. How can average people predict something like this? Should I be buying cheap RUB now since I am in Russia?

The danger in buying something when it is still in a downward trend is that you still have no feel for where the bottom is. Most of the literature about trend-buying seems to support the theory that you should wait until the currency breaks back upward through its 7-day or 30-day average.

[Akula]

(02-20-2014 05:30 AM)Wayout Wrote:  

From what I understand and I am not an expert in this field,but Russia has tons of Currency reserves plus all the Oil and Gas they can sell to keep the RUB at any value against USD they wish!
Two months ago I also witnessed almost a mass dollar buying taking place in Russia by average people. How can average people predict something like this? Should I be buying cheap RUB now since I am in Russia?

I still don't understand currency movements very well but with less than 1.5% grown and oil prices relatively 'low' (for Russia) I don't see the Ruble being a good place to be, even with high rates of return. I don't think it will tank (already sort of has tanked) but there is a constant stream of money exiting the country and slow growth means buysiders will put their money elsewhere. But what the hell do I know.

It's amazing to me that the Ruble was once at around 24 pre-crisis.

I think China is due for more pain and Japan will be hurting in a year or two...more pain to come globally I think. But when with the Dow / S&P get hit? They are down a bit this year but still near all-time highs despite pretty mixed economic signals (and all sorts of hidden stuff nobody's talking about, like the off balance sheet obligations).

[Pacesetter20]

Just in time for my trip to Russia.

[Akula]

^^^^
yeah sure so now that $8 cup of Starbucks coffee is only $7.50 and the $15 cocktail at the club is only $14

[Pacesetter20]

(02-20-2014 08:08 AM)Akula Wrote:  

^^^^
yeah sure so now that $8 cup of Starbucks coffee is only $7.50 and the $15 cocktail at the club is only $14

I've been on the opposite ends of currency swings and every little bits helps (or hurts), but I don't do Starbucks, though cocktails and restaurants are going to kill, but it is not exactly going to be a shoe string budget trip, either.

[MichaelCorleone]

http://soberlook.com/2014/02/3-reasons-f...ne-to.html

[Tail Gunner]

(02-20-2014 09:33 AM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  

http://soberlook.com/2014/02/3-reasons-f...ne-to.html

FWIW, a teaser from investment firm email that I received today:

Quote:

And right off the top, Alexei tells us two significant and surprising things about the Russian market:

One should look at investing in Russia from at least two time perspectives: long term, meaning 10-plus years, and a medium time horizon of 1-3 years.

Long term, Russia is still the best-performing major stock market in the world for the period 2000–2013, when measured in US dollars against the major market indexes. It is well ahead of not only all developed markets, but also the markets in China, Brazil, and several other emerging markets that were and are much more a centre of attention by Western media and investors. This long-term outperformance was achieved despite the fact that 2013 was not a good year for Russian equities, with the RTS Index down 5% in 2013.

Medium term, the Russian market remains the most undervalued. The average P/E is about 4.5, significantly below other emerging markets and way below the multiple on shares in the developed markets.

[MichaelCorleone]

They defaulted in 1998 that is probably a contributing factor in their performance from 2000-2013, so stats like that are a bit skewed. Investing in a country w little to no rule of law is iffy at best. I love it when people say "long term good buy." It is "cheap" for a reason. IMHO.

[Akula]

(02-23-2014 11:37 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  

They defaulted in 1998 that is probably a contributing factor in their performance from 2000-2013, so stats like that are a bit skewed. Investing in a country w little to no rule of law is iffy at best. I love it when people say "long term good buy." It is "cheap" for a reason. IMHO.

yeah there is no real 'long-term' in Russia with regard to investing. Could almost say that about the US market in some ways too now with all the HFT platforms though.

FYI, in 1998 when they defaulted they did it on Ruble debt only and not on US/Euro denominated debt.

[Clunge]

The Ruble devaluation is a great thing, even Moscow now is considerably cheaper than London for example.

$7.50 for a Starbucks in Moscow?, yes please!

Starbucks is probably DHV is Russia, I would rather pay more and be surrounded by young hotties.

[MichaelCorleone]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-05...gold-sales

The Ruble collapsed another 2% today breaking above 45 for the first time ever as Bank of Russia's Deputy Governor Ksenia Yudaeva suggested their policy was "quite close" to free floating the currency and desperately tried to jawbone the currency. She suggested that further rate increases were possible, that interventions were part of the "policy package" when repo tool ramps up and, most notably, Moscow could use some of its national foreign currency or even gold bullion reserves – now the world's fifth largest hoard – to pay for buying imports if Western sanctions over Ukraine continue.

[Chengiz88]

@Michael Corleone Russia has structural issues which hold it back that combined with the sanctions and the outflow of capital its not surprising there getting roasted. TBH commodities are also getting smoked and bonds suffering from huge yield compression, only thing holding up is the equity markets

IMHO over a long term there are some very dirt cheap russian stocks out there worth a look

[CimbomluBkk]

I have a sizeable position in the Russian stock market, down 12% on my investment already. I agree that its a very risky market, but I've been investing in my countries (Turkey) stock market for over 15 years, had some amazing gains, so I'm used to the word "risk" . I don't think I'll lose in the long term unless Putin decides to seize my stocks, majority of my position is in Lukoil which has increased its dividends every year since 1996, including the year Russia defaulted on its debt.

[Chengiz88]

@cimbomlukkk unless the world finds an alternative energy source...Oil/gas will always be in demand. Some very decent high dividend and cashflow +ve russian stocks out there currently

[Brodiaga]

What is a good way to invest in Russian stock from the US? For example, an ETF that tracks the Russian stock market.

[CimbomluBkk]

(11-05-2014 03:37 PM)Brodiaga Wrote:  

What is a good way to invest in Russian stock from the US? For example, an ETF that tracks the Russian stock market.

You could invest in RSX, its the russian etc
Some russian companies are also listed in OTC like Lukoil, Sberbank and Gazprom

[CimbomluBkk]

(11-05-2014 03:26 PM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  

@cimbomlukkk unless the world finds an alternative energy source...Oil/gas will always be in demand. Some very decent high dividend and cashflow +ve russian stocks out there currently

I think so, too
But you never know who the market will perform, I've got my fingers crossed, US is going down on Russia pretty hard with the sanctions and stuff. I'm thinking of investing in the Vietnam stock market as well, there are some decent bargains over there too.

[MichaelCorleone]

(11-05-2014 03:52 PM)CimbomluBkk Wrote:  

(11-05-2014 03:26 PM)Chengiz88 Wrote:  

@cimbomlukkk unless the world finds an alternative energy source...Oil/gas will always be in demand. Some very decent high dividend and cashflow +ve russian stocks out there currently

I think so, too
But you never know who the market will perform, I've got my fingers crossed, US is going down on Russia pretty hard with the sanctions and stuff. I'm thinking of investing in the Vietnam stock market as well, there are some decent bargains over there too.

Who knows where the bottom will be for the Ruble and the RSX....calling something cheap is relative....this is not financial advice in anyway, but I always say to people in situations like this, "Why try to catch a falling knife?"

[Chengiz88]

(11-05-2014 03:37 PM)Brodiaga Wrote:  

What is a good way to invest in Russian stock from the US? For example, an ETF that tracks the Russian stock market.

You can try Market Vectors Russia ETF (please consult your financial advisor before any decisions. My comment is in no way meant as financial advice yada yada)

[Tex Pro]

The ruble would have to fall much, much further for Moscow or St. Pete to become a bargain. Still, the boost in purchasing power is good especially if you plan to visit Moscow since that place is crazy expensive for Eastern Europe.

[Chengiz88]

@Michael Corleone - Yes i do agree with your point. Just bcos something is cheap doesn't necessarily make it a good buy. But if you look at the balance sheets of some of these russian oil/gas giants they are solid. IMO what is going on with the price of oil currently is geo-political manipulation by US/Saudi to hit Russia. But long term even Saudi cannot handle a price below $80/bbl and the whole US shale infrastructure will start to become un-competitive.

If history is any guide it tells me your enemy today is your friend tmrw. Dont discount Russia and the US becoming friends again in a few years.