[samsamsam]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-futu...54738.html


Wall Street jumps as banks lead indexes to new highs

Wall Street has rallied without a significant correction since the start of the year, pushing major indexes to all-time records and sending the S&P 500 up almost 16 percent for 2013 so far.

So we are hitting new highs, lots of cheap money, etc.

Just curious if anyone wants to guess when this ride ends?

[Broadband]

(05-14-2013 05:28 PM)samsamsam Wrote:  

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-futu...54738.html


Wall Street jumps as banks lead indexes to new highs

Wall Street has rallied without a significant correction since the start of the year, pushing major indexes to all-time records and sending the S&P 500 up almost 16 percent for 2013 so far.

So we are hitting new highs, lots of cheap money, etc.

Just curious if anyone wants to guess when this ride ends?

My sentiments exactly. Every new record has me rolling my eyes that history continues to repeat itself.

I'll wager it will drop below 13,000 within 3 months.

[1bliss]

Just here to talk a little about Forex (Foreign Exchange). Forex can be amazing if you learn about it and find a strategy that is consistent with results. But if you suck, you're gonna lose a shit ton of money. I know a couple guys who are filthy rich from trading Forex. They started with their own capital but that was a small amount and was taking too long to grow, so after a couple years of consistent and good numbers, they took that and attracted investors. Now they invest big money and make the same % profit consistently except with other people's money and with a much much much larger capital investment.

But the majority of people who will play Forex, will lose. I am starting to learn more about it and I'm getting more into it because of these 2 guys.

[WestCoast]

(05-14-2013 06:00 PM)1bliss Wrote:  

Just here to talk a little about Forex (Foreign Exchange). Forex can be amazing if you learn about it and find a strategy that is consistent with results. But if you suck, you're gonna lose a shit ton of money. I know a couple guys who are filthy rich from trading Forex. They started with their own capital but that was a small amount and was taking too long to grow, so after a couple years of consistent and good numbers, they took that and attracted investors. Now they invest big money and make the same % profit consistently except with other people's money and with a much much much larger capital investment.

But the majority of people who will play Forex, will lose. I am starting to learn more about it and I'm getting more into it because of these 2 guys.

You have me laughing over here.

You're fucking with us and this is a joke right?

Or you believe you can go up against a 24/7 algo and predict governments with no experience?

I spit all over my keyboard. Because anyone who does forex with that shit is just that. A keyboard Jockey. Don't make people lose money bro. Not cool.

I am not being a dick, you can send me their shitty program and I'll explain how you crack it. Just run it through a simulator during a time frame before the program was made and you'll see it is not accurate in predicting movements. They always time stamp it to top returns just like any marketing deck from a HF/MF.

[Lemmo]

(05-14-2013 06:00 PM)1bliss Wrote:  

Just here to talk a little about Forex (Foreign Exchange). Forex can be amazing if you learn about it and find a strategy that is consistent with results. But if you suck, you're gonna lose a shit ton of money. I know a couple guys who are filthy rich from trading Forex. They started with their own capital but that was a small amount and was taking too long to grow, so after a couple years of consistent and good numbers, they took that and attracted investors. Now they invest big money and make the same % profit consistently except with other people's money and with a much much much larger capital investment.

But the majority of people who will play Forex, will lose. I am starting to learn more about it and I'm getting more into it because of these 2 guys.

If these guys are money managers, then their success probably has as much to do with their connections to investors and the amount of assets under management as it does with Forex as an asset class.

I've done very well with Forex (shorting the yen since late last year) and people should be aware of it as an asset class but it generally has the same risks as other asset classes. I don't see any reason to focus on it but people need to be aware of it for diversification purposes and because they will have FX risk to varying degrees embedded in non-US stocks and many other investments.

[1bliss]

(05-14-2013 06:43 PM)WestCoast Wrote:  

(05-14-2013 06:00 PM)1bliss Wrote:  

Just here to talk a little about Forex (Foreign Exchange). Forex can be amazing if you learn about it and find a strategy that is consistent with results. But if you suck, you're gonna lose a shit ton of money. I know a couple guys who are filthy rich from trading Forex. They started with their own capital but that was a small amount and was taking too long to grow, so after a couple years of consistent and good numbers, they took that and attracted investors. Now they invest big money and make the same % profit consistently except with other people's money and with a much much much larger capital investment.

But the majority of people who will play Forex, will lose. I am starting to learn more about it and I'm getting more into it because of these 2 guys.

You have me laughing over here.

You're fucking with us and this is a joke right?

Or you believe you can go up against a 24/7 algo and predict governments with no experience?

I spit all over my keyboard. Because anyone who does forex with that shit is just that. A keyboard Jockey. Don't make people lose money bro. Not cool.

I am not being a dick, you can send me their shitty program and I'll explain how you crack it. Just run it through a simulator during a time frame before the program was made and you'll see it is not accurate in predicting movements. They always time stamp it to top returns just like any marketing deck from a HF/MF.

Relax, no need to go ape shit just because you are against it or because it hasn't worked for you. They don't use a system or a program, they just know when to get in and when to get out. They know when to short/long and when they should stay away. If you believe nobody makes money from Forex, then that's your problem - there are millions of people who have proven you wrong if that's what you truly think. I'm not gonna try to convince you or anyone else, doesn't affect me at all.

(05-14-2013 07:50 PM)Lemmo Wrote:  

If these guys are money managers, then their success probably has as much to do with their connections to investors and the amount of assets under management as it does with Forex as an asset class.

I've done very well with Forex (shorting the yen since late last year) and people should be aware of it as an asset class but it generally has the same risks as other asset classes. I don't see any reason to focus on it but people need to be aware of it for diversification purposes and because they will have FX risk to varying degrees embedded in non-US stocks and many other investments.

They are good traders but their success is DEFINITELY due to the amount of assets they have under management. Like I said, they were trading with their own capital when they started and despite consistently having good % returns, it was going too slow due to the amount of capital they had invested.

Just like you, they (and myself) have been shorting the Yen for awhile. They play mainly EUR/JPY. All I know is that they never go for a big win or a long-term trade - they always short/long and set a TP of 10-20 pips. They do trades throughout the day (# depending on volatility and other factors obviously) and spend the rest of the time working on their other ventures.

Forex isn't their only source of income obviously, but they make a killing from it because they've learned how to be consistent with it and know what to avoid.

[Dexter Morgan]

Uh, this is supposed to be a stock thread, but since the talk turned to forex, i'll give it a go:

There are algo's that can have some success, because there are correlations that work. However, if you're thinking of the kind of crap sold on late night infomercials, these are CERTAINLY not worth buying: The most effective ones are not sold cheaply on TV; they are used by hedge fund managers. As noted above, they have enough trouble keeping it profitable beyond a year or two! These guys usually exhibit a similar pattern:

1) They come up with a new algo that really works
2) They start to raise serious AUM with it, since they are getting results
3) Over time, the market (being at least weak-form efficient) starts to "figure out" the algo, in the same way a virus eventually mutates to become harder to combat.
4) Eventually, the returns become sub-par or average at best, yet, AUM are still high enough to generate a decent profit for the hedgies.

NO ONE sells an exceptional algo to some schmoes for a few bucks based on a late-night infomercial. Those algorithms are like knock-off cologne - they seem great at first, but they simply stop working MUCH sooner than you expected.

Now this isn't to say that some money can't be made off of currency trading. For example, you don't have to be a genius to recognize that Abe is leading the Yen lower by announcing an intention to flood the money supply. Only thing is, that trade was much better when he first came to office (or better yet, if you knew he was RUMORED to get the job); it may be a little played now.

Likewise, I know some really smart folks who are making a bet on the USD. That may sound counter-intuitive, given the way Ben is devaluing the greenback. BUT, when you consider that the Yen is likely to plunge, European banks are in much worse shape than their American counterparts, and China seems to be experiencing both a slowdown AND inflation at the same time, and the greenback seems to be well positioned on a relative basis. In fact, this could be one of the few times that the dollar and gold BOTH go up at the same time. I think gold will have a pull-back, but I think it will surprise people next year as I expect a major credit crisis in Europe. Some think gold will be effed in a deflationary environment. But I think that if that deflation is related to a credit crisis, gold may actually rally.

The thing about currency trading is, it is MUCH riskier than asset classes like equities or fixed income, for two reasons: First, the volatility (like commodities) is MUCH, MUCH higher. And second, unlike stocks (for which the broad indexes have always gone up over the long run, meaning vol - i.e., the timing of ups and downs vs when you need your capital back - is your only risk), their is no expectation currencies will go up in the long run. It's a zero sum game - one goes up, another goes down relative to it. Unless you are a professional, or at least a very experienced and knowledgable investor, i'd stay clear of currencies.

My two cents.

[T and A Man]

(05-14-2013 10:54 PM)1bliss Wrote:  

Relax, no need to go ape shit just because you are against it or because it hasn't worked for you.

How do you qualify that statement?

He has explicitly stated he is against eople dropping dodgy advice that can make people lose money.

Quote:

They don't use a system or a program, they just know when to get in and when to get out. They know when to short/long and when they should stay away.

If they don't choose their entry and exit points systematically, they do it on a hunch? is it random?

I would assume with some degree of confidence that their transaction points are systematically determined.

Quote:

If you believe nobody makes money from Forex, then that's your problem - there are millions of people who have proven you wrong if that's what you truly think.

I think he referred to setups that are making money from Forex.

Traders with expensive algos, and goernment insiders.

Now if you think you're going to compete equally with them on an excel spreadsheet, or have equal priority to trades and information on a cheap subscription, I would suggest you're misguided, and this can be a costly.

I would suggest West Coast is not wanting this cost to be imparted on other people.

Quote:

I'm not gonna try to convince you or anyone else, doesn't affect me at all.

Funny, this post, #128...

Quote:

Just here to talk a little about Forex (Foreign Exchange). Forex can be amazing if you learn about it and find a strategy that is consistent with results. But if you suck, you're gonna lose a shit ton of money. I know a couple guys who are filthy rich from trading Forex. They started with their own capital but that was a small amount and was taking too long to grow, so after a couple years of consistent and good numbers, they took that and attracted investors. Now they invest big money and make the same % profit consistently except with other people's money and with a much much much larger capital investment.

But the majority of people who will play Forex, will lose. I am starting to learn more about it and I'm getting more into it because of these 2 guys.

does sound like you're trying to convince people of something...

[T and A Man]

(05-14-2013 11:24 PM)Dexter Morgan Wrote:  

There are algo's that can have some success, because there are correlations that work. However, if you're thinking of the kind of crap sold on late night infomercials, these are CERTAINLY not worth buying: The most effective ones are not sold cheaply on TV; they are used by hedge fund managers.

You want to know to what degree some algos are created?

I was able to have a visit to one my companies product providers. So it's Australia and small shop.

The algo was created by 8 PhD holders across a few academic disciplines, such as mathmatics and engineering. This was not 8 random pointy heads who never left campus, this was 8 PhD's with a track record.

Another well known one from England has, at last count, 32 PhD's, againfrom maths, science and engineering related fields, including some who would program trajectory guides for NASA.

These guys are the best of the best, and are rewarded enough so they don't disappear and give proprietry insights to competing organisations, such as late night TV shopping.

Their models, no one is going to get, and no one is going to beat them with an excel spreadsheet.

[WestCoast]

"They don't use a system or a program, they just know when to get in and when to get out."

I never said there's is no way to make money in fx, nor did I say I have never traded them... Hell I have and profited. You can find older threads for that.

Average man should steer far away from fx, it's one of the toughest markets to trade.

If people read the bold and don't get it... Yeah no idea what to say.

[1bliss]

(05-15-2013 03:48 AM)WestCoast Wrote:  

"They don't use a system or a program, they just know when to get in and when to get out."

I never said there's is no way to make money in fx, nor did I say I have never traded them... Hell I have and profited. You can find older threads for that.

Average man should steer far away from fx, it's one of the toughest markets to trade.

If people read the bold and don't get it... Yeah no idea what to say.

Hey I agree with you there. And I am against systems and programs, especially the ones that are sold to the public.

[Tigre]

Signs about broadening of the Syrian conflict to other areas of the Middle East

To anyone looking for an excuse to take profits and adjust to something more defensive. The above news plus the time of year ("sell in May and go away") could be relevant.

[Leo]

I have some questions for the members who are in the industry or have deeper insight into the industry (gsinplaya, t&a man, WestCoast...):

1. What do you guys know about dark pools and are you doing anything about them?

2. Do you know of other subversive ways of playing the market? Ideally ones that get around the algos (such as dark pools)? Is there front-running in electronic trading? When I place a limit order or stop loss, is that seen by others? Is there such a thing as a Level III or IV screen?

And does anyone have experience playing commodities (grains, pork bellies, etc.)?

[BlondeBeastMan]

i am not sure retail players stand a chance in that area(dark pools)

i think you need deep pockets to have access to dark pools....

HFT churns the market on the lower time frames producing a lot of fakeouts.

i think level 3 is only available for market makers.

some people can use market profile and level 2 to profit in futures...personally, i am not expert on that....the ODDS against you are overwhelming, hence i prefer to trade the trend.

I TRADE THE TREND on higher time frame.

Before starting i conduct a top down analysis of the market...i ask myself, what is going on a macrolevel?

what sector/industry is the macro picture affecting.....

I ask myself is the market(s/p 500 and dow) are they bullish, sideways, or bearish?

i look at the best ETFs on the morningstar website to see which is strongest and weakest...and if these aligned with my macro views....

i drill into the best ETFs and pick up the best of the best of the stocks that made up that ETF.....

i want my stocks to have zero debt, to have increasing profit margins...stable or declining overhead...solid cash flow....

I need a catalyst to be in play. I only trade growth stocks. I need the float to be small. I need institutional backing.

I need a kick arse chart patterns and a clear chart trend.

when it reaches what i consider the right confirmation level. i pull the trigger, i have a STOP LOSS....i have conditions for profit taking, pyramiding and final price target.


respectfully,

(06-15-2013 11:15 PM)Leo Wrote:  

I have some questions for the members who are in the industry or have deeper insight into the industry (gsinplaya, t&a man, WestCoast...):

1. What do you guys know about dark pools and are you doing anything about them?

2. Do you know of other subversive ways of playing the market? Ideally ones that get around the algos (such as dark pools)? Is there front-running in electronic trading? When I place a limit order or stop loss, is that seen by others? Is there such a thing as a Level III or IV screen?

And does anyone have experience playing commodities (grains, pork bellies, etc.)?

[BlondeBeastMan]

@WESTCOAST

@DEXTERMORGAN.

Here is how i deal with forex:

#1. trade with the trend.

#2. Market misalignment. This is what i mean by market misalignment:

I am not soo much interested in racking my brain trying to use purchasing power parity, analyzing capital and trade flows, balance of payment model, interest rate differentials, asset market theory, currency substitution model, debt to gdp comparison, asset classes vs commodities vs gold, etcetera....using all that and whatnot to really crack the fundamental value of a nation. You can use all these methodologies to determine the fundamental fair value of a country/currency...but does the market gives a shite?

Dont get me wrong....i read up on these things to understand the fundamental direction....but not necessarily to ascertain the fundamental true value. why? the market can remain irrational more than you can remain solvent...and to me it is in that disequilibrium where maximum gains are made.

For example: When the euro was appreciating against the USD in 2009 even though strings of economic problems were streaming out of the euro...and yet, the eur/usd was making new highs...is that rational? the USA have underlying structural problem, yet, the introduction of QE bullish the stock market as if that solves the toxic derivative problem of the banks. Is that rational? Look at the bullish market in the USA from 2003 to 2007...it was based on inflated bubble that has nothing concrete to it. how is that rational? How about the tech bubble? If you went short the tech stocks during that time because you made a fundamental assessment that is based on REAL VALUE...you will be raped. that is what happened to julian robertson hedge fund.

The main question i ask is this: BlondeBeastMan, how do you trade the irrationality of the market while cognizant of the fundamental reality? How do you exploit the perception that may create bullshit rallies from a empty fundamental well?

(a)I look for disjointment between fundamental and market action. e,g. when QE was released the USD was depreciating....and every other currencies was beating the crap out of the USD...during this time i look for currencies that least appreciate against the USD(e.g turkish lira)...when the QE is over....i will wait for the currency to break below appopriate technical levels...then i went short the crap out of the turkish lira using the USD. e.g. USD/TRY long position.

(b)When the AUD was kicking every other currencies...and the AUD performance is based on CHINA solid numbers...and soon as i started reading about empty apartment houses in china and over-heated contruction works, etc....i started looking for currencies that showed the strongest strength against AUD(that was the USD).....a currency that i can used to short the AUD...of course, i waited patiently...i didnt short AUD until the china economic miracle was shown to be riddle with holes. I did not fight perception. As soon as a see topping action in the AUD/USD...i went short.

© When gold was moving fast and furious towards 1,900 in 2011...i look at all the other metals and commodities....platinum was the weakest....as soon as gold show a topping action...i went short platinum.

(d)In a bear market there will be relief rallies...they are generally triggered when everybody is extremely short and sentiment is at extreme and you are running into an event risk that has uncertainty to it. That is in a nutshell, how i know to be long euro when people are mostly short...and to be short when people are starting turning bullish.

(e)if commodities are up, the dollar index are down, and american stock market are up = you will expect that to be bullish for the commodity currencies...that is cool...and i am willing to trade that in a trend...however, what also interests me is when commodities are up, american stocks market is up, the dollar index is down, and yet, the commodities currencies are down...that is the kind of scenario that is a misalignment, a variance. That is where and when i go for the jugular.

I look for this kind of variance...disjointment in fundamental versus reality. It is that crack in the wall, where i found my maximum profits. This misalignment tends to happen when perception and irrationality dominates the fundamental true value.

respectfully,

(05-15-2013 03:48 AM)WestCoast Wrote:  

"They don't use a system or a program, they just know when to get in and when to get out.".....I never said there's is no way to make money in fx, nor did I say I have never traded them... Hell I have and profited. You can find older threads for that......Average man should steer far away from fx, it's one of the toughest markets to trade......

(05-14-2013 11:24 PM)Dexter Morgan Wrote:  

Uh, this is supposed to be a stock thread, but since the talk turned to forex, i'll give it a go:......

[trader]

(06-15-2013 11:15 PM)Leo Wrote:  

I have some questions for the members who are in the industry or have deeper insight into the industry (gsinplaya, t&a man, WestCoast...):

1. What do you guys know about dark pools and are you doing anything about them?

2. Do you know of other subversive ways of playing the market? Ideally ones that get around the algos (such as dark pools)? Is there front-running in electronic trading? When I place a limit order or stop loss, is that seen by others? Is there such a thing as a Level III or IV screen?

And does anyone have experience playing commodities (grains, pork bellies, etc.)?

Feel compelled to respond here. I'm in hedge funds. Pretty well versed on market participants. The main question is always: 'what's your edge?'...so, as a retail investor with some thousands in assets, what's your edge? In commodities, do you have some insight via farmers, industry participants, big buyers, etc? If you don't, you're in trouble. In stocks, you might have an edge over Mr. Market with solid fundamental or technical analysis with the ability to weather short term moves. In FX, you're likely screwed.

If you're investing retail, don't think you can 'front run' professionals. Focus on technical analysis, deep fundamental analysis, etc.

[Leo]

Quote:

i am not sure retail players stand a chance in that area(dark pools)

i think you need deep pockets to have access to dark pools....

Maybe I can place orders thru a broker who is part of a dark pool network(s).

Quote:

i think level 3 is only available for market makers.

I want this. Otherwise, as a retail player/home-gamer I'm at a huge disadvantage.

Quote:

I TRADE THE TREND on higher time frame.

Before starting i conduct a top down analysis of the market...i ask myself, what is going on a macrolevel?

what sector/industry is the macro picture affecting.....

I ask myself is the market(s/p 500 and dow) are they bullish, sideways, or bearish?

i look at the best ETFs on the morningstar website to see which is strongest and weakest...and if these aligned with my macro views....

i drill into the best ETFs and pick up the best of the best of the stocks that made up that ETF.....

i want my stocks to have zero debt, to have increasing profit margins...stable or declining overhead...solid cash flow....

I need a catalyst to be in play. I only trade growth stocks. I need the float to be small. I need institutional backing.

I need a kick arse chart patterns and a clear chart trend.

when it reaches what i consider the right confirmation level. i pull the trigger, i have a STOP LOSS....i have conditions for profit taking, pyramiding and final price target.

All these are a waste of time/effort when you're up against players who don't play fair and use their position/information to manipulate the market.

[gsinplaya]

Quote:

I TRADE THE TREND on higher time frame.

Before starting i conduct a top down analysis of the market...i ask myself, what is going on a macrolevel?

what sector/industry is the macro picture affecting.....

I ask myself is the market(s/p 500 and dow) are they bullish, sideways, or bearish?

i look at the best ETFs on the morningstar website to see which is strongest and weakest...and if these aligned with my macro views....

i drill into the best ETFs and pick up the best of the best of the stocks that made up that ETF.....

i want my stocks to have zero debt, to have increasing profit margins...stable or declining overhead...solid cash flow....

I need a catalyst to be in play. I only trade growth stocks. I need the float to be small. I need institutional backing.

I need a kick arse chart patterns and a clear chart trend.

when it reaches what i consider the right confirmation level. i pull the trigger, i have a STOP LOSS....i have conditions for profit taking, pyramiding and final price target.

Quote:

All these are a waste of time/effort when you're up against players who don't play fair and use their position/information to manipulate the market.

This is rock solid advice above...I wouldn't call it a waste of time/effort.

The market can be as simple or as complicated as you want to make it but most of the best traders out there follow simple rules and don't try and outsmart the market.

[Leo]

(06-21-2013 05:40 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

Quote:

I TRADE THE TREND on higher time frame.

Before starting i conduct a top down analysis of the market...i ask myself, what is going on a macrolevel?

what sector/industry is the macro picture affecting.....

I ask myself is the market(s/p 500 and dow) are they bullish, sideways, or bearish?

i look at the best ETFs on the morningstar website to see which is strongest and weakest...and if these aligned with my macro views....

i drill into the best ETFs and pick up the best of the best of the stocks that made up that ETF.....

i want my stocks to have zero debt, to have increasing profit margins...stable or declining overhead...solid cash flow....

I need a catalyst to be in play. I only trade growth stocks. I need the float to be small. I need institutional backing.

I need a kick arse chart patterns and a clear chart trend.

when it reaches what i consider the right confirmation level. i pull the trigger, i have a STOP LOSS....i have conditions for profit taking, pyramiding and final price target.

Quote:

All these are a waste of time/effort when you're up against players who don't play fair and use their position/information to manipulate the market.

This is rock solid advice above...I wouldn't call it a waste of time/effort.

The market can be as simple or as complicated as you want to make it but most of the best traders out there follow simple rules and don't try and outsmart the market.

I know. That's what we're taught. I find the above flies out the window when some heavy player decides to manipulate the market or if the market reacts irrationally or way too negatively on some news.

Irrational thinking wins over rational thinking. Market manipulation wins over rational thinking.

Maybe some input from guys in here so did the above stuff and still had their 401k slashed in half in 2008. Or in a recent example, investors in Herbalife who got squeezed in the 'short war' between Bill Ackman, Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn.

[gsinplaya]

(06-21-2013 08:36 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 05:40 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

Quote:

I TRADE THE TREND on higher time frame.

Before starting i conduct a top down analysis of the market...i ask myself, what is going on a macrolevel?

what sector/industry is the macro picture affecting.....

I ask myself is the market(s/p 500 and dow) are they bullish, sideways, or bearish?

i look at the best ETFs on the morningstar website to see which is strongest and weakest...and if these aligned with my macro views....

i drill into the best ETFs and pick up the best of the best of the stocks that made up that ETF.....

i want my stocks to have zero debt, to have increasing profit margins...stable or declining overhead...solid cash flow....

I need a catalyst to be in play. I only trade growth stocks. I need the float to be small. I need institutional backing.

I need a kick arse chart patterns and a clear chart trend.

when it reaches what i consider the right confirmation level. i pull the trigger, i have a STOP LOSS....i have conditions for profit taking, pyramiding and final price target.

Quote:

All these are a waste of time/effort when you're up against players who don't play fair and use their position/information to manipulate the market.

This is rock solid advice above...I wouldn't call it a waste of time/effort.

The market can be as simple or as complicated as you want to make it but most of the best traders out there follow simple rules and don't try and outsmart the market.

I know. That's what we're taught. I find the above flies out the window when some heavy player decides to manipulate the market or if the market reacts irrationally or way too negatively on some news.

Irrational thinking wins over rational thinking. Market manipulation wins over rational thinking.

Maybe some input from guys in here so did the above stuff and still had their 401k slashed in half in 2008. Or in a recent example, investors in Herbalife who got squeezed in the 'short war' between Bill Ackman, Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn.

yes but in all cases the technicals allows you to prepare and adjust for both outcomes before they happened.

Just like on May 22nd this year when the outside reversal day indicated it was time to tidy up any swing longs.

[Leo]

(06-21-2013 08:45 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:36 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 05:40 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

Quote:

I TRADE THE TREND on higher time frame.

Before starting i conduct a top down analysis of the market...i ask myself, what is going on a macrolevel?

what sector/industry is the macro picture affecting.....

I ask myself is the market(s/p 500 and dow) are they bullish, sideways, or bearish?

i look at the best ETFs on the morningstar website to see which is strongest and weakest...and if these aligned with my macro views....

i drill into the best ETFs and pick up the best of the best of the stocks that made up that ETF.....

i want my stocks to have zero debt, to have increasing profit margins...stable or declining overhead...solid cash flow....

I need a catalyst to be in play. I only trade growth stocks. I need the float to be small. I need institutional backing.

I need a kick arse chart patterns and a clear chart trend.

when it reaches what i consider the right confirmation level. i pull the trigger, i have a STOP LOSS....i have conditions for profit taking, pyramiding and final price target.

Quote:

All these are a waste of time/effort when you're up against players who don't play fair and use their position/information to manipulate the market.

This is rock solid advice above...I wouldn't call it a waste of time/effort.

The market can be as simple or as complicated as you want to make it but most of the best traders out there follow simple rules and don't try and outsmart the market.

I know. That's what we're taught. I find the above flies out the window when some heavy player decides to manipulate the market or if the market reacts irrationally or way too negatively on some news.

Irrational thinking wins over rational thinking. Market manipulation wins over rational thinking.

Maybe some input from guys in here so did the above stuff and still had their 401k slashed in half in 2008. Or in a recent example, investors in Herbalife who got squeezed in the 'short war' between Bill Ackman, Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn.

yes but in all cases the technicals allows you to prepare and adjust for both outcomes before they happened.

Just like on May 22nd this year when the outside reversal day indicated it was time to tidy up any swing longs.

You obviously know your stuff. I'm still in the process of educating myself to be a good home-gamer and you lost me at 'outside reversal day' lol.

However, I'm still very, very skeptical of technicals being able to forecast market manipulation moves or irrational behavior. I will say that I don't daytrade so I don't see things as they unfold.

[gsinplaya]

(06-21-2013 09:02 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:45 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:36 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 05:40 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

Quote:

I TRADE THE TREND on higher time frame.

Before starting i conduct a top down analysis of the market...i ask myself, what is going on a macrolevel?

what sector/industry is the macro picture affecting.....

I ask myself is the market(s/p 500 and dow) are they bullish, sideways, or bearish?

i look at the best ETFs on the morningstar website to see which is strongest and weakest...and if these aligned with my macro views....

i drill into the best ETFs and pick up the best of the best of the stocks that made up that ETF.....

i want my stocks to have zero debt, to have increasing profit margins...stable or declining overhead...solid cash flow....

I need a catalyst to be in play. I only trade growth stocks. I need the float to be small. I need institutional backing.

I need a kick arse chart patterns and a clear chart trend.

when it reaches what i consider the right confirmation level. i pull the trigger, i have a STOP LOSS....i have conditions for profit taking, pyramiding and final price target.

Quote:

All these are a waste of time/effort when you're up against players who don't play fair and use their position/information to manipulate the market.

This is rock solid advice above...I wouldn't call it a waste of time/effort.

The market can be as simple or as complicated as you want to make it but most of the best traders out there follow simple rules and don't try and outsmart the market.

I know. That's what we're taught. I find the above flies out the window when some heavy player decides to manipulate the market or if the market reacts irrationally or way too negatively on some news.

Irrational thinking wins over rational thinking. Market manipulation wins over rational thinking.

Maybe some input from guys in here so did the above stuff and still had their 401k slashed in half in 2008. Or in a recent example, investors in Herbalife who got squeezed in the 'short war' between Bill Ackman, Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn.

yes but in all cases the technicals allows you to prepare and adjust for both outcomes before they happened.

Just like on May 22nd this year when the outside reversal day indicated it was time to tidy up any swing longs.

You obviously know your stuff. I'm still in the process of educating myself to be a good home-gamer and you lost me at 'outside reversal day' lol.

However, I'm still very, very skeptical of technicals being able to forecast market manipulation moves or irrational behavior. I will say that I don't daytrade so I don't see things as they unfold.

I think you can learn to navigate the markets with a technical plan. Most people don't take the time to do this.

If you equip yourself with a few technical strategies and common sense rules, you can potentially save yourself pain during pullbacks and take advantage of tremendous macro buying opportunities.

A bit of healthy skepticism is ok but at the end of the day price should dictate how you trade and not your opinion on any aspect of the market.

[Leo]

(06-21-2013 09:17 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 09:02 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:45 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:36 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 05:40 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

This is rock solid advice above...I wouldn't call it a waste of time/effort.

The market can be as simple or as complicated as you want to make it but most of the best traders out there follow simple rules and don't try and outsmart the market.

I know. That's what we're taught. I find the above flies out the window when some heavy player decides to manipulate the market or if the market reacts irrationally or way too negatively on some news.

Irrational thinking wins over rational thinking. Market manipulation wins over rational thinking.

Maybe some input from guys in here so did the above stuff and still had their 401k slashed in half in 2008. Or in a recent example, investors in Herbalife who got squeezed in the 'short war' between Bill Ackman, Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn.

yes but in all cases the technicals allows you to prepare and adjust for both outcomes before they happened.

Just like on May 22nd this year when the outside reversal day indicated it was time to tidy up any swing longs.

You obviously know your stuff. I'm still in the process of educating myself to be a good home-gamer and you lost me at 'outside reversal day' lol.

However, I'm still very, very skeptical of technicals being able to forecast market manipulation moves or irrational behavior. I will say that I don't daytrade so I don't see things as they unfold.

I think you can learn to navigate the markets with a technical plan. Most people don't take the time to do this.

If you equip yourself with a few technical strategies and common sense rules, you can potentially save yourself pain during pullbacks and take advantage of tremendous macro buying opportunities.

A bit of healthy skepticism is ok but at the end of the day price should dictate how you trade and not your opinion on any aspect of the market.

What technical strategies do you recommend? And any resources: books, websites? I don't mind looking into them and see if they hold water - if they give 'an edge'.

Until then, that edge would be what I mentioned above: trading via dark pool networks, market manipulation, or a Level III or IV screen.

[gsinplaya]

(06-22-2013 10:27 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 09:17 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 09:02 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:45 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:36 PM)Leo Wrote:  

I know. That's what we're taught. I find the above flies out the window when some heavy player decides to manipulate the market or if the market reacts irrationally or way too negatively on some news.

Irrational thinking wins over rational thinking. Market manipulation wins over rational thinking.

Maybe some input from guys in here so did the above stuff and still had their 401k slashed in half in 2008. Or in a recent example, investors in Herbalife who got squeezed in the 'short war' between Bill Ackman, Dan Loeb, Carl Icahn.

yes but in all cases the technicals allows you to prepare and adjust for both outcomes before they happened.

Just like on May 22nd this year when the outside reversal day indicated it was time to tidy up any swing longs.

You obviously know your stuff. I'm still in the process of educating myself to be a good home-gamer and you lost me at 'outside reversal day' lol.

However, I'm still very, very skeptical of technicals being able to forecast market manipulation moves or irrational behavior. I will say that I don't daytrade so I don't see things as they unfold.

I think you can learn to navigate the markets with a technical plan. Most people don't take the time to do this.

If you equip yourself with a few technical strategies and common sense rules, you can potentially save yourself pain during pullbacks and take advantage of tremendous macro buying opportunities.

A bit of healthy skepticism is ok but at the end of the day price should dictate how you trade and not your opinion on any aspect of the market.

What technical strategies do you recommend? And any resources: books, websites? I don't mind looking into them and see if they hold water - if they give 'an edge'.

Until then, that edge would be what I mentioned above: trading via dark pool networks, market manipulation, or a Level III or IV screen.

Some Recommended reading here on technical analysis and chart patterns...
http://www.chartpattern.com/recommended_reading.htm

Check out this book regarding dark pools and market structure which will probably interest you more.

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Pools-Machine...0307887170

Traders with small accounts shouldn’t be concerned with Dark pools—unlisted pools of bids and offers that trade off the exchanges—but if you have a strategy with enough complexity or you’re trading a large account in illiquid stocks then its worth looking into.

[Leo]

(06-23-2013 06:41 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-22-2013 10:27 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 09:17 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 09:02 PM)Leo Wrote:  

(06-21-2013 08:45 PM)gsinplaya Wrote:  

yes but in all cases the technicals allows you to prepare and adjust for both outcomes before they happened.

Just like on May 22nd this year when the outside reversal day indicated it was time to tidy up any swing longs.

You obviously know your stuff. I'm still in the process of educating myself to be a good home-gamer and you lost me at 'outside reversal day' lol.

However, I'm still very, very skeptical of technicals being able to forecast market manipulation moves or irrational behavior. I will say that I don't daytrade so I don't see things as they unfold.

I think you can learn to navigate the markets with a technical plan. Most people don't take the time to do this.

If you equip yourself with a few technical strategies and common sense rules, you can potentially save yourself pain during pullbacks and take advantage of tremendous macro buying opportunities.

A bit of healthy skepticism is ok but at the end of the day price should dictate how you trade and not your opinion on any aspect of the market.

What technical strategies do you recommend? And any resources: books, websites? I don't mind looking into them and see if they hold water - if they give 'an edge'.

Until then, that edge would be what I mentioned above: trading via dark pool networks, market manipulation, or a Level III or IV screen.

Some Recommended reading here on technical analysis and chart patterns...
http://www.chartpattern.com/recommended_reading.htm

Check out this book regarding dark pools and market structure which will probably interest you more.

http://www.amazon.com/Dark-Pools-Machine...0307887170

Traders with small accounts shouldn’t be concerned with Dark pools—unlisted pools of bids and offers that trade off the exchanges—but if you have a strategy with enough complexity or you’re trading a large account in illiquid stocks then its worth looking into.

A lot of chart pattern stuff is hindsight, and we all know what hindsight is.

I'd like to play the market as the pattern is forming and know the psychology of the players involved eg: downward pressure on the price as it approaches a resistance.

Also, regarding supports and resistances - I've seen the price go thru a resistance then plummet down hard or thru a support then bounce and keep going. One would get screwed for coming in when it broke resistance or get taken out of the market if one had a stop loss below the support.