[Andy_B]

It seems both are pretty into the whole "fuck marriage" thing.

Also, both are into hookup culture generally.

It seems like if you really distill it to the fundamentals, "third wave blog feminism" and "manosphere" writings are fairly similar in their opposition to traditional values.

Which makes me wonder, what is Western Society going to look like in say 20 years, when millenials are running things?

Substantial portions of both genders (in our age group) seem legitimately convinced that they don't need the opposite sex, viewing it as some kind of "enemy," and that continuing the species isn't anything worth foregoing additional cars and smartphones for.

Question is, how does this end?

I realize that the forum is pretty invested in the whole "men going there own way" paradigm, but you've got to admit guys, from the perspective of social cohesion and stuff, marriage is a pretty important institution. What percentage of millennials are going to be married? What percent of millennials who aren't crazy religious fuckwads are going to have children?? And more to the point, educated people aren't having children, who's going to run shit down the road?

I realize that these are not comfortable ideas to deal with, but I don't think that ignoring some of the obvious problems of 21st century Western Society is healthy if you live in that society.

[Cincinnatus]

I'm planning on expatriating permanently sooner or later. If the West is fucked because people care more about buying new smartphones than investing in children, so be it. I'm not spending my entire life in the Anglosphere or western Europe.

[Andy_B]

(11-29-2012 04:18 PM)MSW2007 Wrote:  

I'm planning on expatriating permanently sooner or later. If the West is fucked because people care more about buying new smartphones than investing in children, so be it. I'm not spending my entire life in the Anglosphere or western Europe.

I like the idea of expatriating, but one thing that seems like a downside is that if the English speaking world collapses, a lot of the businesses in these countries that cater to the English speaking world (like outsourcing companies, manufacturers, English schools, etc) are gone. I feel like a Westerner would have a difficult time navigating life in these countries without a strong West to fall back on.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

However, manosphere is saying "fuck you" to marriage only because the feminists have made it a very bad deal first. I don't think there's anything inherently anti-marriage about learning game, it's just that tying the knot has become such a dangerous act nowadays. The basic interest exists (even if merely out of convenience), I'm sure, it's just stifled.

My expectation is that the western civilization will end if we continue this way- or rather, be replaced by other cultures that haven't given in to feminism, like Islam, or some Asian culture.

[Excelsior]

Take a look at this thread from this post forward to get an idea of where things might be heading.

To keep a long story short: The darker, more traditional segments of the human population (Africans, Arabs, South Asians and certain Hispanics) are poised to play a much larger role in the coming decades.

Quote:

What percentage of millennials are going to be married?

In the west? Relatively few. The ones who are will be very disproportionately religious.

Quote:

What percent of millennials who aren't crazy religious fuckwads are going to have children??

That number will also be low. The vast majority of children in coming decades will be born to non-white, non-western, relatively traditional parents. The westerners who persist will be of the more traditional, religious variety (the Romneys of the world aren't going anywhere).

Quote:

And more to the point, educated people aren't having children, who's going to run shit down the road?

The children of the "less educated" folk will fill the void. Expect their views (remember, these kids will come disproportionately from conservative backgrounds/homes) to also grow in scale and respect.

[Samseau]

(11-29-2012 06:10 PM)Athlone McGinnis Wrote:  

To keep a long story short: The darker, more traditional segments of the human population (Africans, Arabs, South Asians and certain Hispanics) are poised to play a much larger role in the coming decades.

Maybe not Hispanics:

Quote:

Hispanic women - both those born in and those born outside the U.S. - experienced larger birth-rate declines from 2007 to 2010 than other groups. They also experienced greater percentage declines in household wealth than white, black, or Asian households between 2005 and 2009, according to the report. Latinos also experienced a greater rise in poverty and unemployment than non-Latinos after the Great Recession began.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextam...w-20121129

[Parlay44]

I'm not anti-marriage. That was the standard for thousands of years. I do agree that modern women in the US have nothing to offer a man.

[iknowexactly]

[quote='Athlone McGinnis' pid='317303' dateline='1354230609']

[quote]What percentage of millennials are going to be married?[/quote]

In the west? Relatively few. The ones who are will be very disproportionately religious.

[quote]

It's not a total collapse. . The below chart is hard to read, but it looks like among white females, the marriage (lifetime?) rate for 2008 was 53% and it's been going down since 1960, from 66% to 53, only about about 1/4 of 1% per year. But social trends tend to self-limit and regress to the mean, so I speculate the rate of decline will probably slow. But at the present rate of decline, in 20 more years, it would still be roughly 47%. One confound you have to correct for is that if you look at overall marriage rates at any given point, the aging population skews things-- women outlive men, so there are more 80 year old unmarried widows/women now than before.

Despite their 10,000 RPM hamsters, middle-class and up chicks like the status of being desirable enough to marry.

http://www.google.com/imgres?q=marriage+...,s:0,i:122

[Therapsid]

I'm somewhat skeptical about the notion that colored folks will inherit civilization. Demographers observe that virtually all nations, whether in Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, South Asia, North, or South America, undergo the same transition from high to low fertility rates with modern technology.

For example, my father's side is of Indian ancestry. We're used to India being a nation plagued by overpopulation and people breeding like rabbits amid the worst poverty. But women are having fewer and fewer children in India. The fertility rate is now little more than two and a half. It won't be long before India has replacement and then sub-replacement fertility rates. China's already knocking on that door.

[Cincinnatus]

(11-30-2012 01:17 AM)Therapsid Wrote:  

But women are having fewer and fewer children in India. The fertility rate is now little more than two and a half. It won't be long before India has replacement and then sub-replacement fertility rates. China's already knocking on that door.

That reminds me of an article I read a while back regarding Japan instituting family subsidies in an attempt to combat sub-replacement fertility rates. I wonder how that's working out.

[Excelsior]

(11-30-2012 12:17 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(11-29-2012 06:10 PM)Athlone McGinnis Wrote:  

To keep a long story short: The darker, more traditional segments of the human population (Africans, Arabs, South Asians and certain Hispanics) are poised to play a much larger role in the coming decades.

Maybe not Hispanics:

Quote:

Hispanic women - both those born in and those born outside the U.S. - experienced larger birth-rate declines from 2007 to 2010 than other groups. They also experienced greater percentage declines in household wealth than white, black, or Asian households between 2005 and 2009, according to the report. Latinos also experienced a greater rise in poverty and unemployment than non-Latinos after the Great Recession began.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextam...w-20121129

I was talking about the human population as a whole. When I mentioned "certain hispanics", I was referring to those populations that still had very high fertility rates. This includes Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Mexico and (interestingly) Argentina. These are the places where a disproportionate number of future births (and future migrants to the west, especially the USA and Canada) will come from.

[Excelsior]

(11-30-2012 01:17 AM)Therapsid Wrote:  

I'm somewhat skeptical about the notion that colored folks will inherit civilization. Demographers observe that virtually all nations, whether in Europe, the Middle East, East Asia, South Asia, North, or South America, undergo the same transition from high to low fertility rates with modern technology.

The discussion is much more nuanced than this. Consider the following:

1. Will some nations undergo this transition faster than others?

2. Will the effect be the same in every society, even assuming all manage to undergo the transition (i.e. will some societies decline to lower fertility rates than others, and will those societies have something in common)?

3. Will the factors crucial to bringing said demographic transitions about (modern technology, female education and wealth) actually reach every society on a roughly equal scale? Or will other factors (economic failure, religion, culture, etc) limit their impact in many places, thus delaying or at least minimizing potential demographic transition in certain nations? You only list one factor (modern technology) responsible for driving demographic transition. Culture and wealth are also both very important.

The evidence, as I've seen it, seems to indicate the following:

A. European and East Asian nations are undergoing this transition much more severely and rapidly than others are on average.

B. The march toward low fertility is not a perpetual one-fertility declines have stalled at levels well above replacement in many societies, few of which are European and none of which are East Asian.

C. Religion, culture and economic reality have also proven capable of mitigating the march toward low fertility in certain societies. The demographic transition, though real and clearly visible, does not hit every culture or people in the same way.

Quote:

For example, my father's side is of Indian ancestry. We're used to India being a nation plagued by overpopulation and people breeding like rabbits amid the worst poverty. But women are having fewer and fewer children in India. The fertility rate is now little more than two and a half. It won't be long before India has replacement and then sub-replacement fertility rates. China's already knocking on that door.

Firstly, China is not merely knocking on that door-their fertility rate is well below replacement level as is.

Secondly, India's fertility rate is about 2.6. Though this is well below previous levels, it is still far above levels seen in most East Asian and European societies, a reality that is still sufficient to produce the demographic outcome I presented earlier (darker and/or more traditional populations becoming more numerous as a percentage). Even if India were to eventually reach sub replacement fertility, this would be done well down the road-demographic inertia would still present them a large boost over populations that are already at low fertility.

Finally, India's fertility battle provides a good example of point 2 made above. We do not know that India's rate will stall above or below replacement level-evidence of a slowdown in the rate of decline already exists.

A good summary on Indian fertility can be found here:

Quote:

The size of India's future population will largely depend upon the course of fertility decline in the highly populous north. While clearly in the third phase of the transition, will India move to the fourth phase of replacement fertility or will it join that group of developing countries where that seems doubtful? For the fourth phase to begin, fertility in the very large and poor Indian states will have to decline to that of an industrialized country, around two or fewer children.

I wouldn't bet on that last condition being met, at least not in our lifetimes.

[Dr. Howard]

With reference to the original post, its a new smarter form of class warfare. Pitting races against each other isn't socially or legally acceptable anymore so the sexes are pit against each other to ensure that there's no unity or that one sex will drag the other down if one starts to get ahead.

Divide and conquer, its the same strategy used when you have multiple unions on the same work site. Find a way to turn them against each other and they'll undermine each others contracts more than an employer has to.

[Asaxon]

Germany has paid family subsidies ("child money") for decades, about $300 per kid per month, yet their birth rate has declined even faster than Japan's.

[Samseau]

(11-30-2012 12:48 PM)Asaxon Wrote:  

Germany has paid family subsidies ("child money") for decades, about $300 per kid per month, yet their birth rate has declined even faster than Japan's.

Is there child support in Germany?

[Parlay44]

(11-30-2012 12:48 PM)Asaxon Wrote:  

Germany has paid family subsidies ("child money") for decades, about $300 per kid per month, yet their birth rate has declined even faster than Japan's.

We get a child tax credit in the US. I get back $4000 a year on my taxes for my 1 kid.

So $300/month for 12 months = $3600. It's about the same thing.

[Samseau]

(11-30-2012 02:08 PM)Parlay44 Wrote:  

(11-30-2012 12:48 PM)Asaxon Wrote:  

Germany has paid family subsidies ("child money") for decades, about $300 per kid per month, yet their birth rate has declined even faster than Japan's.

We get a child tax credit in the US. I get back $4000 a year on my taxes for my 1 kid.

So $300/month for 12 months = $3600. It's about the same thing.

Not true - you need to make that money in the US. In Germany, you get it for free.

Also, how do you know that there aren't additional tax subsidies in Germany on top of the subsidy?

[speakeasy]

The West is toast. In a way we are lucky because we get to drink the last drop of lifeblood from it. I feel sorry for the kids being born now. And I'm not just talking the state of sex relations. Everything, like government debt, unemployment, stagnant economies.

Europe will be practically vacant in a few generations with their plunging fertility rate. Their economies will be on life support from millions of Chinese and Brazilian tourists that want to take pictures of crumbling churches.

[TheMan]

nah, Its not anti marriage, its anti-divorce system

[iknowexactly]

(11-30-2012 07:51 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

The West is toast. In a way we are lucky because we get to drink the last drop of lifeblood from it. I feel sorry for the kids being born now. And I'm not just talking the state of sex relations. Everything, like government debt, unemployment, stagnant economies.

Europe will be practically vacant in a few generations with their plunging fertility rate. Their economies will be on life support from millions of Chinese and Brazilian tourists that want to take pictures of crumbling churches.

not vacant. filled with people from shitholes. when i was in oslo 28 years ago there were no brown people. now 14% from mideast countries; who are probably have 30%of the kids there.

[bacon]

i could be off by a year or two but a generation is like 18 years. im 28 and part of a generation which is perhaps one of the first who saw divorce as a socially acceptable thing. in previous generations there was great social stigma to being divorced or cohabitating without marriage and having children without marriage. that is not the case today. additionally men in my generation have seen the problems financially and legally with divorce first hand from our parents or friends parents and it has put great deal of fear about the risk associated with it. it also doesnt hurt that most men are logical and understand HALF of all marriage ends in divorce.

for feminists they are often hypocrites because if they were pretty enough to have men marry them, pay their bills they would gladly sign off on marriage. women dont have much to complain about modern marriage laws.

as for society at large well its dificult to say what the social ramifications could be. personally i think once the institution of marriage is deemed not important(we might be one or two generations in the west from this being the case to most everyone) the rest of the other institutions will likely fall as well.

[TheMan]

(12-01-2012 09:55 AM)bacon Wrote:  

as for society at large well its dificult to say what the social ramifications could be.

Feminism is a blight on society ...nay our species. Period.

[Teedub]

(11-30-2012 10:46 AM)Athlone McGinnis Wrote:  

(11-30-2012 12:17 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

(11-29-2012 06:10 PM)Athlone McGinnis Wrote:  

To keep a long story short: The darker, more traditional segments of the human population (Africans, Arabs, South Asians and certain Hispanics) are poised to play a much larger role in the coming decades.

Maybe not Hispanics:

Quote:

Hispanic women - both those born in and those born outside the U.S. - experienced larger birth-rate declines from 2007 to 2010 than other groups. They also experienced greater percentage declines in household wealth than white, black, or Asian households between 2005 and 2009, according to the report. Latinos also experienced a greater rise in poverty and unemployment than non-Latinos after the Great Recession began.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextam...w-20121129

I was talking about the human population as a whole. When I mentioned "certain hispanics", I was referring to those populations that still had very high fertility rates. This includes Guatemala, Honduras, Panama, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Mexico and (interestingly) Argentina. These are the places where a disproportionate number of future births (and future migrants to the west, especially the USA and Canada) will come from.

What about white Latinos, I.E Argentinians, Uruguayans, White Brazilians? Are they more 'in-tune' with European attitudes to marriage/children or are they more in tune with the Africans, Mestizos, Arabs etc? I say that because Argentinians/Uruguayans are known to see themselves as Europeans more than Latin Americans.

[UgSlayer]

You are over-estimating the influence third wave feminism and the manosphere has on the general public. Both are a small segment of the western population. Most chicks want to get married and most guys don't have the game to live the player lifestyle.

Both will eventually settle and have kids.

[Tex Pro]

Eh, the slide downward will be slow, at least for America. The doom and gloom talk doesn't make sense since there is still a lot of immigration to America and people are still getting married and having kids (albiet at lower rates).