Quote: (07-09-2012 05:04 PM)Samseau Wrote:
It's only expensive now. 20 years from now probably not.
That is what they said about IVF back in '78.
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What is going to do in the feminist machine?
Demography.
Their fertility rates are too low, and this procedure is not going to raise them above replacement level, for reasons I outlined above and will mention again below.
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Right now it's unstoppable.
So far, for the feminists: the more they want, the more they get.
1. Child bearing ages are now going to be extended by 20-30 years.
You're being way too optimistic about this development-even the best case scenario is not that rosy, for reasons I mentioned in my last post.
Take a look at this direct quote from the article:
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"The only thing preventing them from having babies into their old age would be their physical ability to carry a pregnancy, they said."
This limits the distance to which the wall can be moved. VERY few 55-60 year olds have the fortitude to carry a child to term for 9 months without serious risk of complications, and 70 year olds with that fortitude are going to be nonexistant.
This procedure deals with the ovaries and egg production-while healthy ovaries are important, other components of the body are needed to work in order to bring a child to term, and these componenets are unlikely to be healthy enough to do so at 55, 60 or 70 (50? Maybe). This reality, combined with costs and other limiting factors is going to limit the number of women who are able to take advantage of this. Affluent women seeking pregnancy during their mid-late 40's will be the largest beneficiaries, assuming they planned things out and began preserving their ovaries twenty years prior (an unlikely scenario-more on that later).
It is likely that women who try at later ages (55+) are going to have success rates close to those of mid-40's IVF patients-well under 2%. That is not the answer feminists are hoping for.
It is not going to become normal for women to give birth at 60-70. Few women will be able to afford it, and even if they could their bodies, in most cases, are not going to be able to handle the pregnancy without serious complications at such advanced age. The range of fertility, therefore, will not be extended much further beyond its current absolute limit (mid-40's). The main beneficiaries are going to be women in that age range. The child bearing ages may be extended by 5 years or so, not the 20-30 you're fearing.
Now, one more thing-apparently for this procedure to work, women need to remove pieces of the ovary many years in advance.
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“But you could have grafts removed as a young woman and then have the first replaced as you approach menopausal age. You could then put a slice back every decade."
This works when women have some known health issues (cancers and the like, as seen in the article) that they are preparing to face, but what are the chances of a large number of average women having the foresight or desire (or money) to engage in such a move during their most fertile years (18-30) without any real prompting or health issue? Remember that if the woman does not begin this slicing and storing procedure during her youth, WAY before menopause sets in, she cannot benefit from this new process-she must plan WAY ahead, and (since she will have pieces of her ovaries missing for that time) I assume she'd also need to be sure she didn't want kids during that time before she hit the wall. That is a big caveat.
This will severely limit the spread of this procedure. This requires many years (often decades) of foresight that is likely to be costly. Don't count on the grafting/preservation procedure, 10+ years of storage, and the replacement procedures done later getting covered by federal (or even a majority of private) healthcare plans anywhere in the western world given the voluntary nature of all this. Taxpayers aren't going to front money for hordes of relatively young, but healthy girls with career orientation in mind to get this done "just in case"-only the very sick (cancer, etc) and the rich will be able to pull it off.
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2. Women get all the easy high-paying jobs.
And can't find any men (still unhappy).
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3. Women have a huge safety net from the government.
Which will last as long as the large, strong, stable Western governments and economies do.
Have you seen the way said economies have been doing lately? Witness American deficits, EU bailout crises and other assorted follies playing out right now. Don't count on completing your lifetime without seeing some significant shifts in the ability of feminism as we currently know it to sustain itself-it relies on the generous support of a big government in a wealthy economy, and it may not be able to count on these things for too much longer.
Change is coming-crap is going to hit the fan, one way or another, and we will be here to see it (for better or worse). When it does, don't expect feminism as we currently know it to stick around. It will either change significantly or fade further into the background.
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What's to stop the feminists? They're winning the war by leaps and bounds.
You guys think they will get ugly as they age?
I bet science is going to undo that by the end of our lifetimes too.
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Aside from all I've mentioned above, we haven't even gotten to the lifetime of the implants (how long will they last once implanted, how will age impact their effectiveness once implanted, etc) and the side effects (how will body react to delayed menopause and subsequent hormonal changes, etc).
And yes, they will still age as they do now.
Like I said, you're giving this whole thing waaaay more credit than it deserves. I'm confident that this is not the feminist panacea they hope (or that you think) it is. Like dragnet said, there is no feminist utopia over the horizon. Their hold on things is a lot more tenuous than you think.