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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-27-2012, 12:54 AM
I thought I'd create a discussion on China for the sole purpose of intellectual/mental masturbation. Not sure if this is in the right forum (maybe lifestyle is better).
China has always fascinated me. Part of the reason is, I guess, because I'm a Chinese American (though you can surely find many ABCs who have no interest in the subject), but i think another part has to do with the fact that China is such a complex and interesting place. On the one hand, you have a society that is still a developing country with many "emerging market" problems/factors: it has yet to reach its maximum production potential, it still has significant poverty, lots of corruption, and more traditional/non-western mindsets outside of the megacities. On the other hand, China is experiencing some "developed country" problems: it is reaching max pollution levels, it is getting old faster than it is getting rich, and in the megacities, it has reached a level of cosmopolitan SWPL moral depravity that would make many playboys blush.
In any case, what are everyone's thoughts on China in terms of its future trajectory? Economically, socially, poon-wise - are things going to get better in terms of economic opportunities, social harmony/stability, and getting tail as a foreigner?
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-27-2012, 01:21 AM
Some of the Zerohedge.com posts suggest that China is in the middle of a credit bubble. When it pops, there will be some serious fallout.
We can't really discuss the Chinese economy because the statistics are censored or fudged to suit the interests of the ruling party.
My personal, admittedly uninformed, bet is that China will be in recession in 2014 once loans start defaulting en mass.
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-27-2012, 05:43 AM
China,despite the biggest resource grab since the British empire is still cash rich, they have good relations with the majority of the globe and are building up control of every type of resource including metals, energy , minerals, arable land and water. They will be the only remaining superpower in ten years if the yanks do not get some self awareness with regards to their chronic waste of resources.
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-27-2012, 11:43 AM
I think one of the most understated problems is the demographic shift on two fronts: age and gender ratio. For reasons most seemingly explained by Mao's encouragement of population growth, followed by the one-child rule,Chinas average age is expected to shoot all the way up to 40 by 2025, according to the OECD. This means that social security will largely be a burden that falls on the limited amount children(most likely 1 child per household) relative to their much old parents and grandparents.
Fertiity rates in China are also insanely low with cities like Shangai being as low as .96 births per woman, way below the replacement rate at 2.1. This only exacerbates the ageing population problem.Also, as a game forum, I'm sure I don't need to explain to implications of a 118-110 male to female ratio amongst newborns in 2010, as cited by the Economist. Hell most guys on the forum freak out at a 2-1 male to female ratio at their local bar. Now imagine in China where some Males simply won't have access to women. No dates. No bangs. No marriage. Nothing. Since males have been the preferred gender historically in China for economic reasons its hard to see this trend changing in the near future.
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-27-2012, 11:13 PM
The ageing population in China is not as serious as they make it out to be. Unlike the US the Chinese save for retirement so they are expected to be self sufficient in their old age with a 40 percent annual savings rate. Unlike America they know thd government will not support them on their old age
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-28-2012, 03:14 AM
I'm very bullish on it. It might face a small crisis due to the burst of its credit bubble in the future, but its fundamentals are very strong. Furthermore, even though suffering from serious corruption, its leadership is willing to make tough decisions and push through things like fiscal stimuli, that have become a hopeless effort in both Europe and USA.
As far as its demographic burden goes, I salute China. It has sacrificed a lot of future economic progress in order to ensure that population (both its and world's) doesn't balloon unsustainably, which certainly cannot be said for India or most of Africa. If it wanted to return to 2 children policy in the future, it would be totally understandable.
I can't comment on how the gender ratio will affect its economy, if any, but it's going to be interesting.
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-28-2012, 03:57 AM
Bullish. Chinas population decline is a result of a direct government measure, and people do indeed save up. ChiCom can turn up the birth rate at a whim. Chinese companies are all over the world, most importantly staking out claims to Africa's resources. The Chinese are the most pragmatic people I know. Go to any american university library friday/saturday night. Who's there?
I don't think Western culture has much effect on China, since they realize they are going up and we are going down. This is the century of the dragon.
The interesting question is if China will attempt military expansions, or just set up enclaves in foreign countries (Chinatowns x100). I.e. have Chinese male expats working for chinese firms in foreign countries marry foreign (Asian) women (the Han Chinese are racist, but they are also pragmatic - avoiding revolution by males unable to find wives is more important).
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-28-2012, 11:39 AM
Short Term Bearish ( Real Estate Bubble, Ghost City's ) Long Term Bullish massive Growth potential, savers.
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Thoughts on China: Bearish or Bullish?
11-28-2012, 08:23 PM
The migration of men to other countries is already happening - ChinaSmack did a piece on Chinese men buying brides in Vietnam for dirty cheap prices. And these are not rich men in China.