Quote: (03-15-2019 01:26 PM)Deepdiver Wrote:
Being the merciless Capitalist Trading Opportunist that I am I rather not wring my hands and worry about the future but take a realistic view of both the AOC wing and #YangWing of the Democrat Socialist Peoples Party CCP of America and see how to profit madly in their collectivists wake...
I actually Like Casey Research because I make mad money with their research and reccs... rather than woe is me Chicken Little Crap they take a pragmatic realistic view of this is what happens to a once prosperous country when the Democratic People Commie Socialists take power and what you need to do about it - for the TLDRs here its behind a paywall that I subscribe to so I am including the full text so you understand the reasoning behind the reccs...
Key Takeaways:
I find the Marijuana Revolution Reccs particularly ironic since we all know that a large portion of the $1K monthly Yang bags will find its way into the self-medication organics industry... KaChang! Yang who I happen to like because in the Pickup Game with the Thai Food Bros - they missed and he hit all of his shots - alphas tend to be great shooters, Bballs, Guns, Beer Bottle Bang down - Nukes etc... I can envision his ancestors on the vast plains of China as highly disciplined archers being deployed to cripple the Dark Kingdoms Front Line Cavalry/Lancers and infantry - that does not mean I agree with his #YangBangBuxBag or other 70+ policy ideas basically just bend over and be greased by the CCPs AOCers and enjoy it. Yang is really an articulate Trojan Horse to distract the white millenial male population while the CCP stealth replacement invasion accelerates first with low IQ Indigenarios from Central American Banana Republics and then High IQ Chinese allied with the AshkeNazis to come to our rescue... Oh and do you really think the AOC wing will for one nanosecond allow Straight White Men to get a $1K bag a month? Really?
The Casey Report Top Themes
Own Physical Gold and Silver: These precious metals are the ultimate safe-haven assets. We hold them for the long term.
The End of Marijuana Prohibition: Legalization is inevitable. It’s happening. And it’s going to unleash a $150 billion market that was previously underground. Those profits are up for grabs.
The Collapse of Western Civilization: There’s major turmoil ahead for Western Civilization… and it could be catastrophic for global currency and stock markets.
The Most Hated of the Resource Markets: There is simply no other commodity with more explosive upside and less downside than uranium right now.
Dividend Aristocrats: A goose that lays an ever-increasing number of golden eggs. We own them for safe, steady profits. It’s hard to think of a better investment.
The Death of America’s Middle Class: The shrinking middle class is looking at a rising drawbridge. You’ll either make it to the other side of the moat, and live comfortably inside the castle. Or you will be stuck outside with the peasants, a member of the permanent underclass.
The New Crisis Currency: Bitcoin is a disruptive and transformative technology that provides a genuine alternative to the unsound financial system. It allows the average person the ability to escape the collapsing fiat matrix.
The Third Oil Shock: A big conflict in the Middle East often triggers a big spike in the price of oil. Take the 1973 “oil shock,” for example. Oil prices roughly quadrupled in a matter of weeks. Today, we could be on the verge of a price spike even more extreme than that.
How to Profit as the “Shirtless Ones” Conquer the US
By Nick Giambruno March 14, 2019
In the late 19th century, Argentina was the richest country in the world.
Its citizens – largely European immigrants and their progeny – were wealthier than Canadians, Australians, Brits, and even Americans.
That might come as a surprise. Today, when people hear “Argentina,” most think of its insane economic policies and out-of-control government. Or they think of its world-famous beef and wine.
But in 1895, Argentina was top dog.
In fact, Argentina was so rich that the French used a phrase “riche comme un Argentin,” or “rich as an Argentine.”
In the 43 years leading up to World War I, Argentina’s economy grew at an annual rate of about 6%, the fastest growth on record for any country in the world at that time.
This is when the great architecture in Buenos Aires was built and the city earned the nickname the “Paris of the South.”
Like the US, Argentina has abundant natural resources. But its former prosperity mostly came from its free-market policies – sound money, low taxes, basically nonexistent regulation, and free trade.
At the time, Argentina looked just as promising as the US. This attracted skilled immigrants from all over Europe.
My ancestors came to the US from Italy around this time. But they could have picked Argentina just as easily, as many of their fellow Italians did.
Argentina had all the ingredients to become the 20th century’s ultimate success story. But it didn’t.
The US did.
Today, Argentina isn’t even among the world’s 50 wealthiest countries. It’s No. 63.
Doug Casey: It’s not just Argentina. I spend a couple of months a year in Uruguay, across the River Plate from Buenos Aires. Uruguay was the world’s first democratic socialist state – and it shows. The virus of collectivism, statism, Marxism, socialism, Peronism, and fascism – it’s a disease with many names – is entrenched in their national bloodstream. That makes it hard to find a good employee; nobody wants to work. But I succeeded with three people who work on my property there.
The problem? They’re all trying to get employment with the government, where they only have to pretend to work. At least Argentina has some residual dynamism. Uruguay is on a slow boat to nowhere.
How could a country, in a little over 100 years, suffer such a dramatic decline – from the wealthiest country in the world to No. 63?
I’ll answer that question in the pages ahead and show you how the US is headed down the same rabbit hole – perhaps permanently.
Perón – The Beginning of the End
Like Doug Casey, I’ve spent a lot of time in Argentina. So I’ve learned about the country firsthand.
To be sure, Argentina has declined for numerous reasons. But nothing has damaged the country more than its adoption of socialist and populist economic policies.
The Argentine economy has been in terminal decline since Juan Perón rose to power in 1946.
Perón, as you may know, was a military man. Popular with the labor unions, he instituted strict government control over the economy.
Perón put the State at the center of everything. He gave all sorts of freebies and welfare to the poor, known as the descamisados, or the “shirtless ones.” This forever cemented him as an icon among the masses.
To this day, Perónists see exuberant public spending, government intervention, and money printing as the solution to any problem.
Forty-five years after his death, Perón remains a potent political force, largely because people think they can get a free lunch by voting for a Perónist.
In reality, they’re flushing themselves down the economic drainpipe… over and over again.
It’s a vicious cycle: Perónists get elected by promising a lot of freebies. They spend until there’s nothing left to borrow. Then they light up the printing press and inflate the currency to finance even more spending.
From there, consumer prices skyrocket as the currency is devalued. Then a reformer is voted in to fix the situation. The reformer attempts to cut spending, which is unpopular, and the masses vote in another Perónist promising freebies.
Then the cycle starts all over again.
As long as the descamisados can vote for freebies, Argentina has no hope of ever breaking this cycle.
Many Argentines have discovered they can “vote for a living” instead of working for one. This makes it impossible to turn things around.
This is what happens in a democracy when welfare is on the table. It’s addictive. So once a large portion of the population is hooked, the country’s prosperity wastes away.
Representative democracy cannot subsist if a great part of the voters are on the government payroll. If the members of parliament no longer consider themselves mandatories of the taxpayers but deputies of those receiving salaries, wages, subsidies, doles, and other benefits from the treasury, democracy is done for.
– Ludwig von Mises
The implications here are simple. And they aren’t exclusive to Argentina.
Once most voters receive some sort of government largesse, they will demand that the government transfer more and more wealth to them, until it bankrupts the nation.
A Cautionary Tale
Argentina could have been a 20th century success story. Instead, it’s a cautionary tale.
Unfortunately, the US has largely ignored the lessons of Argentina. Today, it’s going down the same path at an astonishing speed. And it’s going to meet the same end.
Doug Casey: Actually, it’s even worse than that. Every country in the world is headed down the same path. Just at somewhat different rates. There’s not much you can do to change a megatrend. That said, in addition to what Nick recommends, I urge you to diversify politically and geographically. There’s no ideal place. But make sure you have more than one.
Socialism is on the rise in the US. It’s arguably unstoppable.
Frankly, I think we’re at an inflection point. Socialism is about to be permanently entrenched in US politics, just as Perónism is permanently entrenched in Argentine politics.
If you’re prepared to face facts and act quickly, it’s still possible to protect yourself and profit from this paradigm shift. I’ll show you how in this issue.
The Politics of a Majority on the Dole – Echoes of Argentina
The US is following in Argentina’s footsteps. Its shifting demographics all but guarantee it.
A recent Gallup poll showed that 51% of Millennials (people born 1982-2004) now favor socialism. And a growing number favor outright communism.
This is no small problem.
Millennials are now the largest demographic group in America. And sometime this year, they are expected to surpass Baby Boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation.
Millennials are part of a growing majority of US voters addicted to the heroin of government welfare.
An estimated 47% or so of Americans already receive some form of direct government benefit. However, when you include government employees, along with those in the nominally private sector who feed off the government slops, that figure is actually much higher.
This includes defense and other government contractors who win huge, no-bid contracts and provide nothing of value to the private sector. Any honest account of government wards needs to include them.
When you tally up everyone in the US living off of political dollars, it’s well north of 50% of the population – a solid and growing majority.
In other words, the US has already crossed the Rubicon. There’s no going back.
Doug Casey: When the economy collapses – likely in 2019 – everybody will blame capitalism, because Trump is somehow, incorrectly, associated with capitalism. The country – especially the young, the poor, and the non-white – will look to the government to do something. They see the government as a cornucopia, and socialism as a kind and gentle answer.
The people who depend on the US government for their livelihoods are no different than Argentina’s descamisados. As their numbers rise, it guarantees more socialism ahead. It’s why Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and other socialists are skyrocketing in popularity.
Bernie Sanders, the Democrats’ runner-up for the presidential ticket in 2016, openly ran as a socialist. Once a fringe senator, Sanders is now one of the most influential members in his party. And of course, he’s running again in 2020.
Today, radical socialist ideas are flourishing in the US. Top contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination are all calling for more freebies… free medical care, free college, free housing, free food, and so forth.
In other words, more people simply want the State to take care of them. They want a savior, and these politicians are simply answering the call.
The whole situation echoes how Perónists pandered to the descamisados, and we know how that ended.
I think this trend is unstoppable. Argentina proves that once socialism becomes entrenched, it’s impossible to uproot. The descamisados will never vote to break their own rice bowls. And neither will their US counterparts.
Bottom line, there’s no political fix to this problem.
That means one thing is certain: an ever-increasing amount of money printing to pay for all these government programs.
More Socialism Means More Inflation
Traveling the world looking for compelling investment opportunities is a big part of my job. It’s brought me to numerous countries in crisis. Think Ukraine, Argentina, Zimbabwe, and Colombia, which neighbors Venezuela.
These places have some of the highest rates of inflation in the world. So I’ve seen firsthand what happens to a country when it turns to socialist policies.
It never ends well.
In a country with a pure fiat monetary system (like the US), the government invariably prints too much money. That makes prices rise.
The people, feeling pinched, turn to socialist politicians who promise free healthcare, free tuition, cushy jobs, you name it.
Then the government prints even more money to pay for these programs. This makes inflation climb even higher. And the vicious cycle repeats itself, ad infinitum, until an all-out crisis hits.
Venezuela offers a recent example of how this plays out. With its vast oil reserves, the country was once the richest country in South America. Then the socialist Bolivarian government, led by Hugo Chávez, took charge in 1999.
The Venezuelan currency – the bolívar – is now worthless. The country is suffering under the highest rate of inflation in the world.
It’s one more sad story confirming that wherever you find socialism, you inevitably find money printing and devalued currencies.
The Opportunity
In the pages ahead, I’ll explain how America’s embrace of socialism will lead to more inflation – and what you can do about it.
I’ll also introduce a new investment recommendation. It’s an excellent inflation hedge, and I think it should be a core part of your portfolio.
Exhibit A – The Green New Deal
Ideas that wouldn’t be out of place in Perónist Argentina – ones deeply out of touch with reality – are reaching critical mass in the US.
The Green New Deal is Exhibit A. It was proposed by a group of politicians in Washington. But its loudest proponent is Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a Democratic socialist congresswoman from New York. (Ocasio-Cortez is well on her way to becoming the US version of Eva Perón or Cristina Kirchner, two of Argentina’s most destructive Perónists.)
As you likely know, the Green New Deal is a way for politicians to tack on “pie in the sky” solutions to the issue of climate change. It includes nonsensical, childish proposals like rebuilding every building in the US and constructing railways over the oceans, among other things.
The goal would be to eliminate carbon emissions and move towards 100% renewable energy (otherwise the world will end in about 10 years according to its proponents).
Then there are the promises that aren’t even related to the environment. According to one study, despite the Green New Deal’s name, its most expensive proposals have nothing to do with climate change. It’s a clear indication that advocates are scaremongering the climate issue to push a separate, radical agenda.
The deal promises well-paying, government-guaranteed jobs and an end to poverty. It promises social justice and gender equality. It promises affordable housing for all, free education for all, free medical care for all, and paid vacations for all. No surprise, it also promises subsidies for select industries, among other freebies.
The Green New Deal sounds exactly like something an Argentine socialist would propose – bizarre, economically suicidal, and rooted in fantasy. It stops just shy of promising everyone a free pony. So of course, it’s skyrocketing in popularity.
When asked about the practicality of her proposal, Ocasio-Cortez said this recently:
Some people are like, “Oh, it’s unrealistic, oh it’s vague, oh it doesn’t address this little minute thing.” And I’m like, “You try! You do it.” ‘Cause you’re not. ‘Cause you’re not. So, until you do it, I’m the boss. How ’bout that?
Doug Casey: It’s exactly the type of thing the Founders tried to guard against by restricting the vote to property owners over 21, going through the Electoral College. Now, welfare recipients who are only 18 can vote, and the Electoral College is toothless. Some want to totally abolish the College, and have even 16-year-olds and illegal aliens voting.
The simple fact that Ocasio-Cortez, a manifestly ignorant 29-year-old Puerto Rican waitress, has become – overnight – one of the most influential people, and important legislators, in the US is telling us something. Namely, that the idea of America is now ancient history.
The average voter picks moderately above himself as a political leader. But not too far above, or he can’t relate. Read Ocasio-Cortez’s words above. Listen to the “Valley Girl Speak.” Then recognize that her huge constituency is about a standard deviation more degraded than she is.
Look out below!
Notwithstanding its practicality, the Green New Deal has gained plenty of glowing media attention. Prominent members of Congress have also endorsed it, including numerous 2020 presidential candidates like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Kamala Harris.
Of course, all of these people have their heads in the sand on the issue of cost…
The Green New Deal could cost over $93 trillion over 10 years.
The additional cost of the Green New Deal would be $9 trillion per year, which is more than double the current entire federal budget – which is already bloated – of around $4 trillion.
In other words, the Green New Deal would more than double the size of the federal government.
Taxing the rich to the limit wouldn’t even put a dent in the Green New Deal’s bill. According to Investor’s Business Daily, “…even taking every single penny earned by tax filers with adjusted gross incomes over $50,000 would not be enough money to pay the costs.”
When asked, “How are you going to pay for this?” the Green New Dealers have the same answer as Argentina’s Perónists: We’ll just print money!
An Intellectual Fraud
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is the latest buzzword coming out of Washington, D.C.
Contrary to its name, MMT is neither new nor “modern.” And adding the word “theory” to something doesn’t make it scientific or credible.
MMT is the same economic quackery that’s brought misery to Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and countless other places. Now, left-leaning US economists, politicians, and policy wonks are taking it seriously, too. They see it as a sort of “QE for the people.”
In short, MMT says that because the US government can borrow in its own currency, it can simply print money to finance its spending.
MMT gives a thin academic veneer to a Perónist-style monetary policy, which is simply extravagant deficit spending on social programs financed by printing money.
Green New Deal supporters cite MMT as a way to finance the plan.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Stephanie Kelton, Bernie Sanders’ former chief economic adviser, are leading advocates of MMT.
The fact that the Green New Deal and MMT have gained as much traction as they have is another sign of how degraded the discourse is in the US.
These ideas are fantastical, but that doesn’t mean the government won’t implement them. Unfortunately, it’s only becoming more and more likely.
At this point, demographic trends have baked much higher inflation into the cake. It’s only a question of when it will hit and how severe it will be.
As I discussed in a recent issue, I think a stock market crash of historic proportions is highly likely before the November 2020 presidential election. If that happens, it all but guarantees that a Democrat who supports the Green New Deal and MMT will move into the White House.
Frankly, most people have no idea how bad things can get when socialist government policies spin completely out of control, let alone how to prepare.
Practically speaking, there’s little you can do to change the trajectory of these trends. But you can take steps to save yourself from the fallout.
That’s where gold comes in. It’s a wealth insurance policy against any crisis, political or otherwise.
Gold is the ultimate form of wealth insurance. For thousands of years, it’s preserved wealth through every kind of crisis imaginable. It will also preserve wealth through the crisis ahead as the US fully embraces socialism.
I expect gold to reach not just multi-year highs, but all-time highs as this all plays out.
Gold can’t be inflated into nonexistence. It’s scarce and finite. It’s been a reliable medium of exchange for thousands of years.
Plus, gold holds its value over the long term. (A good, well-tailored suit always costs about one ounce of gold. That’s been true throughout history.)
This is why I recommend moving a portion of your portfolio into physical gold.
Here at The Casey Report, we think everyone should own some physical gold and keep it in their possession. This is the best way to ensure it won’t be confiscated, nationalized, frozen, or devalued with a couple of taps on the keyboard.
But that’s only step one…
Ideally, you want to store your gold in multiple secure places. Even better if it’s in multiple countries.
There are also practical limits to how much gold you can store in a home safe. And – like anything in your house – it’s vulnerable to theft. You never know when a light-fingered dishwasher repairman is going to happen upon it.
Diversifying your physical gold holdings offers another safety buffer. Fortunately, this month’s recommendation offers a convenient way to do just that.
Gold Is Rising
Gold’s price started rising around November as the US elections saw Democrats take over the House of Representatives. This is what we expected.
New Investment Recommendation
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)
Key Stats PHYS
Recent Price $10.45
Sprott Physical Gold Trust is a physical gold fund. PHYS was created to invest all of its assets in gold.
The man behind the fund is Eric Sprott, a precious metals guru and self-made billionaire. He founded Sprott Inc. – an early champion of precious metals investing – nearly four decades ago and took the company public in 2008.
Sprott’s company began investing in precious metals in 2000, when he saw tremendous upside for gold. (It was trading around $270 at the time – now it’s around $1,300).
In 2009, the company launched Sprott Physical Gold Trust. The fund gives investors a convenient way to buy actual physical gold without having to worry about storage, or coin premiums.
And, of course, PHYS has a long track record of tracking gold closely.
This all makes PHYS a great way to profit from the coming bull market in gold.
Not an ETF!
Sprott Physical Gold Trust is not an exchange-traded fund (ETF). It’s a closed-end fund (CEF). This is actually an advantage.
As you may know, an ETF’s share price tracks its net asset value (NAV) very closely. That’s not necessarily the case with a CEF. Its share price can respond more strongly to market sentiment.
This means that shares in a gold-based, closed-end fund like PHYS can trade at a discount to NAV, or at a premium.
When the share price of PHYS is greater than its NAV, it’s trading at a premium. When it’s lower, it’s trading at a discount.
How does this happen?
Well, a closed-end fund like PHYS only issues a limited number of shares. When there’s a lot of demand for them, it doesn’t satisfy that demand by “printing” new shares like an open-end fund would. Instead, investors compete for a limited pool of shares and bid up the price.
Bottom line: Because of the way a closed-end fund works, buying one at the right time can hand you significant value.
How to Get $1 for 85 Cents
Let me walk you through an example…
Imagine a closed-end fund focused on energy stocks. Assume it starts out with $100 million in cash and issues 100 million shares. Each share has a value of $1.
The fund invests its $100 million in publicly traded energy companies. If the value of the energy companies owned by the fund increases from $100 million to $120 million, the NAV of the fund rises to $1.20 per share.
However, the price of the fund in the market will not automatically rise to $1.20. That’s because it always has the same number of outstanding shares.
Now let’s assume buyers drive the fund’s share price up to $1.38, for example. That would mean investors are paying a 15% premium to invest in the fund (because the underlying investments are only worth $1.20). It’s like paying $1.15 to get $1.
Or the fund might only rise to $1.02 per share. In this case, you could buy $1.20 for only $1.02. The fund would be selling at a 15% discount. It’s like being able to buy $1 for 85 cents.
Other Benefits
Sprott Physical Gold Trust is one of many ways to invest in gold. Let’s look at a few advantages it offers:
The fund holds all its assets in physical gold bullion stored at the Royal Canadian Mint. In other words, PHYS buys physical gold for you (and only you) and holds it in giant safes. The custodian currently holds 1,585,066 ounces of gold in the fund’s name.
The fund’s physical gold is periodically inspected and audited. So you know it’s there. Contrary to popular belief, this is not how all gold funds work.
Unlike an ETF, PHYS never loans out its physical precious metals to other institutions.
PHYS never takes deposit receipts for physical metals, as ETFs often do.
And as an investor, you can even buy it and hold it in your IRA – or Roth IRA. If you hold it in one of these accounts, your capital gains won’t be taxed.
You can choose to take delivery of your gold at any time, as long as the amount you want meets Sprott’s minimum redemption requirements. The minimum amount that can be redeemed in physical gold is one 400-ounce London Good Delivery bar.
I can’t stress this last point enough. When you buy PHYS, you own tangible gold that you could have shipped to your house.
Granted, this service is mostly suited to larger investors. But it’s still an important feature that sets PHYS apart from most precious metals ETFs.
With that in mind, here’s a quick look at how PHYS compares to its top competitors.
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As you can see, PHYS is the only major closed-end fund that offers allocated storage and a redemption option.
Most gold ETFs are typically structured as a trust. This means their unit holders are actually shareholders of the trust (not gold holders). Buying a share means owning a portion of the gold held by the trust. That’s it. You don’t have specific gold bars “allocated” to you.
This means, when you buy a gold ETF, you could be exposing yourself to significant counterparty risk. This makes you especially vulnerable during a full-blown financial crisis.
Despite the word “trust” in its name, PHYS is structured differently. It doesn’t have any of the drawbacks I just mentioned.
In sum, for an annual cost of 0.46% – only slightly above that of SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), the biggest gold bullion ETF on the market – you get the best gold investment vehicle out there.
PHYS offers the convenience of an exchange-traded fund like GLD. But it guarantees you a legal claim to physical bullion stored in a vault (unlike GLD or other ETFs).
And, since PHYS trades like a fund, you can buy it from the convenience of your brokerage account.
A Word on Taxes…
The IRS views precious metals the same way it does collectibles like art, rare books, and fine wine. This means that if you hold PHYS for more than one year, the capital gains tax on your net gain from selling it will be considerably higher than the tax rate on most net capital gains (an average of 15% for most taxpayers).
But there are some important details…
PHYS is a PFIC (Passive Foreign Investment Company) for US taxpayers, who may file a QEF (Qualified Electing Fund) form each year (your full-service broker can help you with this.) This offers a potential tax advantage to US investors that is not available with ETFs.
Investors who file a timely QEF form may be taxed at a long-term capital gains rate of 15–20%, versus a maximum of 28% applied against most precious metals ETFs and bullion.
Note that this is not an issue for Canadians.
I encourage you to consult the tax section on PHYS’s website for more information and to discuss this with your accountant.
Price
The chart below shows PHYS’s one-year performance. It’s been in an uptrend for the past several months.
Nevertheless, PHYS is still down about 37% from its previous peak. And it has plenty of upside. You can see this in the next chart.
PHYS is also currently selling at a discount to NAV. As of writing, the discount is 0.9%.
Remember, we want to buy at a discount or when the premium is low. Here’s a picture of the fund’s premium/discount since 2013.
PHYS’ current discount of 0.9% compares favorably to the average (6-year) discount of 0.3%. If we rolled back the timeline to its inception (which we didn’t to avoid the noise), the average premium would be about 1.3%.
So if history is anything to go by, PHYS is currently trading at a competitive price relative to NAV.
Bottom line: We’re still at an attractive entry point right to ride the long-term gold bull.
The Trade
Buy shares of the Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) up to $15 and use a 50% trailing stop loss.
You should plan on holding for at least one year, possibly longer.
Portfolio Update
Aurora Cannabis (ACB)
Aurora Cannabis (ACB) is a top Canadian cannabis producer.
The company is in a unique position to capitalize on Canada’s new recreational market. Moreover, Aurora now has the capacity to become one of the biggest marijuana suppliers in the world.
Aurora recently reported its fiscal Q2 2019 results. (The quarter ended on December 31, 2018.)
At C$54.2 million (~US$40 million), the company’s net revenue more than quadrupled from just C$11.7 million (~US$9 million) a year ago. This also marked an 83% increase in net sales over the previous quarter.
Though the company’s top line looked better than ever, it still posted a net loss of almost C$240 million (~US$179 million). However, most of this came from non-cash accounting adjustments on its derivative investments. And the rest came from expansion. Aurora is growing, and growth costs money.
Keep in mind, management anticipates reaching an annualized production capacity of at least 150,000 kilograms this quarter. This is a significant ramp-up from annualized production levels of roughly 120,000 kilograms.
Aurora also announced that its Aurora Sky and MedReleaf Bradford facilities received their production and sale licenses from Health Canada.
These two projects should account for 128,000 kilograms per year in combined capacity. So I expect the licensing approval to boost profits going forward.
Bottom line, Aurora is still moving toward becoming one of the global titans of the cannabis industry.
The market has been happy with Aurora. Shares have gone up recently. However, I expect them to go higher still in the months ahead.
Continue to BUY Aurora Cannabis (ACB) up to $12 per share.
First Majestic Silver (AG)
First Majestic Silver (AG) is a silver producer focused exclusively on Mexico. Its motto is “One Metal, One Country.”
Last month, the company reported a loss for its Q4 results. Normally, this would have weighed on share prices, but it didn’t.
You see, the negative bottom line was largely expected. It came from a $7.5 million inventory loss due to the bankruptcy of Republic Metals Refining, one of the three refineries First Majestic used.
By way of background, Republic Metals is a Florida-based refiner that filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in federal court in November. Recently, it was found that some of its inventory (precious metals for refining/minting) was missing. The creditors who’d supplied the inventory didn’t get paid. Unfortunately, First Majestic was one of them.
Now, the company says it’s pursuing all legal and insurance channels to recover its inventory. But there’s no guarantee it will – hence the write-off.
Low metals prices didn’t help, either. The average realized price was just $14.47 per ounce for the quarter. That’s down 13% from a year ago.
First Majestic has done a great job of cutting costs. It reduced its all-in sustaining cost (AISC) to $12.83 per silver ounce (down from $14.13 in Q4 2017). But there still wasn’t enough wiggle room.
Nevertheless, management is continuing to deliver on its commitment to improve operations. That’s great news.
And we expect even better news going forward…
First Majestic’s San Dimas mine is expected to add over 10 million ounces to the company’s annual silver equivalent production. That’s a roughly 4 million-ounce jump from current levels.
Better yet, I expect shares of First Majestic to soar as silver prices rise. It’s quite possible that First Majestic could repeat its meteoric 2016 rise, when its share price shot up over 633%.
I believe the stock is oversold and its current price represents a great buying opportunity.
Continue to BUY shares of First Majestic Silver (AG) up to $15. Use a 57% trailing stop loss on the position.
Cameco (CCJ)
Cameco (CCJ) is our premier play on higher uranium prices. Based in Canada, it’s our “go-to” pick in the uranium space.
Cameco reported solid financial results last month. It made roughly US$121 million (~C$160 million) in unadjusted net earnings in Q4 2018.
This is an improvement over the loss of ~US$47 million (~C$62 million) it booked for the same quarter last year.
On an adjusted basis, the company’s fourth-quarter net earnings were 12% higher than a year ago.
Cameco’s fourth-quarter uranium output came in at 2.4 million pounds. That’s down 65% from a year ago, but for good reason…
In late 2017, Cameco took its McArthur River mine offline.
McArthur River is the world’s largest high-grade uranium mine. Previously, it accounted for roughly 12% of global uranium production.
Rest assured, there’s nothing wrong with the mine. Cameco has simply opted to idle it until uranium prices go up. Last quarter’s results attest to that.
Nevertheless, Cameco still racked up significantly higher profits than a year ago. This is a direct result of the company’s renewed focus on its core competencies and high-margin operations.
We don’t know when Cameco will restart McArthur River. But given the current (still) low-price uranium environment, it’s smart to keep it offline for now.
For what it’s worth, management announced on the Q4 conference call that its 2019-2021 capital expenditure plans assume that McArthur River will stay offline.
Bottom line: Cameco is profitable, but it needs the price of uranium to climb and stay higher to maintain its earnings momentum.
Recall that a historic supply shock from both McArthur River and Kazakhstan – which I told you about last April – is setting the stage for a historic price spike in the uranium market.
I have no doubt Cameco will deliver huge profits to investors in the coming uranium bull market. It has the upside of a junior exploration company – think 10-bagger or better. But it’s low-risk.
Remember, this is not a junior exploration company. It’s a multibillion-dollar industry dominator.
This is the kind of trade I like. The risk/reward is heavily skewed in our favor.
Continue to BUY shares of Cameco (CCJ).
ExxonMobil (XOM)
ExxonMobil (XOM) is one of the largest oil and gas producers in the world that’s not partially or completely owned by a government.
As an integrated oil company, it’s in the natural gas, coal, and electric power business. Plus, it controls pipelines, transportation, oil refining, and retail service stations.
ExxonMobil is also a Dividend Aristocrat. The company has been paying dividends for over a century, and it’s increased them for a big part of that.
The company recently reported its Q4 financial results. In short, it was a solid quarter. Sales came in at a whopping $71.9 billion.
More importantly, ExxonMobil reported adjusted earnings of $6.4 billion, beating market expectations of $4.7 billion by a wide margin. Adjusted earnings were 73% higher than a year ago. (As a reminder, adjustments excluded the impact of accounting impairments and US tax reform).
ExxonMobil also distributed $3.5 billion in dividends during Q4, or nearly $14 billion on a full-year basis in 2018.
Our investment thesis here remains the same: Owning a Dividend Aristocrat like ExxonMobil is a key part to building lasting wealth.
Shares are up over the past month . But they’re still at a great entry point for those not long already. It also offers a yield that’s more than double that of the S&P 500 – and is set to grow higher.
Continue to BUY shares of ExxonMobil (XOM) up to $100. Use a 50% trailing stop loss on the position.
Repsol (REPYY)
Repsol (REPYY) is a global energy company based in Spain. It has a market capitalization of over US$25 billion and produces more than 700,000 barrels of oil per day. The company is one of the largest producers, refiners, and distributors of oil and natural gas in all of Europe.
Repsol recently reported solid financial results for Q4 2018.
The company’s adjusted earnings checked in at €632 million (~US$708 million). That’s up about 7% over Q4 2017.
Having earned €2.35 billion (~US$2.64 billion) on a full-year basis, it was also Repsol’s highest annual result in the last eight years.
Repsol’s upstream unit also performed well. It earned €310 million (~US$350 million). That’s roughly 114% more than it earned in Q4 2017.
I’m glad the company’s ambitious plans to grow its upstream segment are finally yielding fruit.
The market reacted positively to Repsol’s quarterly results. Nevertheless, shares of Repsol have still declined over the past month. That makes now a good opportunity to buy.
I think Repsol could soar in the months ahead if turmoil increases in the Middle East (as I expect it to).
Continue to BUY shares of Repsol (REPYY) up to $30. Use a 50% trailing stop loss on the position.
Walmart (WMT)
Walmart is the world’s biggest retailer. It has over 11,700 locations spanning five continents.
Walmart also has a growing online presence. It may be the only retailer capable of seriously competing with Amazon in the e-commerce space.
Last month, Walmart announced results for its fiscal Q4 2019 (which ended on December 31, 2018).
Total revenue was $138.8 billion, or 1.9% higher than a year ago.
Walmart topped expectations all around, blowing the analyst estimates out of the water.
Walmart’s same-store sales, for instance, checked in 6.8% higher on a two-year stack basis (achieved by adding together the past two years of comparable growth). It was the highest growth in the last nine years.
As a result, Walmart’s adjusted earnings came in at $1.41 per share. That’s up 6% from a year ago.
Net sales for the Walmart US e-commerce business increased a whopping 43%.
This is a direct result of Walmart successfully expanding programs like grocery pickup and delivery, as well as a broader assortment on Walmart.com.
In short, Walmart is continuing its successful foray into e-commerce. If Amazon isn’t concerned, it should be.
I expect Walmart’s share of the e-commerce market to keep growing as it chips away at Amazon’s dominance. Meanwhile, the company is set to dominate the omni-channel retail space through its low-cost pricing model, innovation, and strong brick-and-mortar presence.
And remember: Walmart is a Dividend Aristocrat. It’s increased its dividend for 46 consecutive years – even through the recent gloomy years in retail. That’s a big part of our investment thesis.
Walmart paid its first dividend of $0.05 per share in 1974. It’s increased its dividend every year since. Recently, the company upped its quarterly dividend to $0.53 per share. This translates into a total annual payout of $2.12 per share (versus $2.08 a year ago).
At current price levels, this gives us a strong 2.56% yield on our initial capital. Put differently, Walmart is handing us a growing dividend yield that’s currently about 31% higher than the yield offered by the S&P 500.
Continue to BUY Walmart (WMT) up to $110.
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL)
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL) is a gold producer operating world-class mines in Canada and Australia. The company is a great way to get leveraged exposure to the price of gold.
Kirkland operates in the same regions that have birthed major mining companies. And I think history is about to repeat itself.
The company reported excellent Q4 results last month. Kirkland’s earnings hit US$106.5 million. That’s a 160% increase over Q4 2017.
The increase came on the back of record gold sales of US$280.3 million (up 32% year-on-year) and record production of 231,217 ounces (up 39% compared to the same quarter last year) in Q4 2018.
Many year-over-year metrics were also up. And the company saw its AISC-per-ounce decrease by a whopping 31% to US$567 from Q4 2017.
Kirkland finished the most recent quarter with over US$332 million cash in the bank. That’s 43% more than it had as of December 31, 2017.
In sum, Kirkland’s high-grade, low-cost operations continue to deliver. I expect Kirkland to continue to do better and better.
Finally, the company continues to sport a debt-free balance sheet, making it a genuine standout among large gold producers.
The market seems to get the positives in this story. Kirkland’s shares are up over the past month .
With solid growth planned for the next three years, I expect Kirkland’s share price to continue its upward trajectory.
Continue to BUY Kirkland Lake Gold (KL) up to $40.
Until next time,
Nick Giambruno with Laurynas Vegys and Andrey Dashkov
The Casey Report Top Themes
Own Physical Gold and Silver: These precious metals are the ultimate safe-haven assets. We hold them for the long term.
The End of Marijuana Prohibition: Legalization is inevitable. It’s happening. And it’s going to unleash a $150 billion market that was previously underground. Those profits are up for grabs.
The Collapse of Western Civilization: There’s major turmoil ahead for Western Civilization… and it could be catastrophic for global currency and stock markets.
The Most Hated of the Resource Markets: There is simply no other commodity with more explosive upside and less downside than uranium right now.
Dividend Aristocrats: A goose that lays an ever-increasing number of golden eggs. We own them for safe, steady profits. It’s hard to think of a better investment.
The Death of America’s Middle Class: The shrinking middle class is looking at a rising drawbridge. You’ll either make it to the other side of the moat, and live comfortably inside the castle. Or you will be stuck outside with the peasants, a member of the permanent underclass.
The New Crisis Currency: Bitcoin is a disruptive and transformative technology that provides a genuine alternative to the unsound financial system. It allows the average person the ability to escape the collapsing fiat matrix.
The Third Oil Shock: A big conflict in the Middle East often triggers a big spike in the price of oil. Take the 1973 “oil shock,” for example. Oil prices roughly quadrupled in a matter of weeks. Today, we could be on the verge of a price spike even more extreme than that.
The Casey Report Model Portfolio
RECENT PRICES
Core Positions
InvestmentOpen DateOpen PriceDist/AdjRecent PriceTrailing Stop %ReturnsNotes
First Majestic Silver (AG)11/09/16$9.38$0.00$6.6257%-29.4%Buy up to $15
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)06/14/18$6300.12$0.00$3871.79-38.5%Buy up to $28,000
Repsol (REPYY)08/09/18$19.85$0.00$16.9450%-14.7%Buy up to $30
Sinopec (SNP)09/13/18$96.61$0.00$83.7450%-13.3%Buy up to $130
Aurora Cannabis (ACB)07/25/18$2.43$0.00$8.99270.0%Buy Up to $12
The ProShares Short High Yield (SJB)01/10/19$22.77$0.00$22.1350%-2.8%Buy Up to $30
Kirkland Lake Gold (KL)02/14/19$32.53$0.00$34.3450%5.6%Buy up to $40
Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS)03/14/19$10.57$0.00$10.4850%-0.9%Buy up to $15
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM)07/12/18$22.14$0.09$21.9450%-0.4%Buy up to $30
ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF)12/13/18$23.12$0.09$22.5050%-2.3%Buy up to $30
ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (SDS)11/08/18$35.12$0.18$33.9950%-2.8%Buy
Cameco (CCJ)07/12/17$9.61$0.22$12.2229.4%Buy
Suncor Energy (SU)10/11/18$37.36$0.59$33.6350%-9.1%Buy up to $60
Walmart (WMT)05/11/18$82.69$1.57$98.2250%20.1%Buy up to $110
Exxon Mobil (XOM)06/14/18$81.51$2.46$80.4450%0.8%Buy up to $100
*A stop loss is a predetermined price at which you will sell a stock if it declines. Reduce the stop-loss trigger price by any dividends received. Only use closing prices to determine whether a position has hit its trailing stop.
Please keep track of stop losses on stocks you own. If a stock hits its stop, we’ll write about it in our next monthly issue. However, we will not send out alerts between issues. It’s your responsibility to monitor your portfolio and follow the stop losses we suggest.
This sheet represents our current portfolio recommendations and is not a comprehensive track record.
Reference date is the release date of the publication when the recommendation was originally made.
**In local currency; includes dividends.
This portfolio generally won’t represent the exact price at which you could get into or out of a stock. Instead, it reflects the opportunities available at the time the issue is prepared
Don’t bet the farm on any trade.
You shouldn’t put your emergency expense funds, kids’ college tuition, or any other money needed to pay the bills in our recommendations. It would expose you to unnecessary risk. Limiting risk is key to success.
Ultimately, it’s up to you to determine the exact allocation of these investments in your portfolio.
Please, never invest money that you can’t afford to lose. And NEVER use borrowed money to invest. Losing is always a possibility with all investments, including those we recommend in The Casey Report.
Agreed.
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There is going to be lots of attacks on Yang and his character in the months to come. All I wanna say is...
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