Quote: (04-08-2016 02:25 AM)Omad Wrote:  

Quote: (04-08-2016 12:45 AM)jj90 Wrote:  

Valeant here has likely bottomed. Yeah I'm 1 day late on the news. But if there isn't a huge surprise in the 10K coming out by the 29th, this could be a double in < 6 months. Think the bad news has pretty much been priced in, if the 10K/Q isn't half as bad as expected, theres's a pop to the upside. Will post my entry when I get in.

VRX has been great for put selling, super rich premiums with the high IV, I sold puts when it got around $28, took a little heat but closed them out yesterday.

Probability of VRX being at $70 by October is under 20%. If it drops below $30 again I'll be selling more puts.

VRX is below $30 again. I sold the $20 puts today, they're around 1 standard deviation away. Looks like I sold them a little early.

My overall portfolio Delta is short so I can use the long Delta's.

I was playing with the idea of a Roosh values ETF.

Holdings:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD)
6. Short S&P500 ETF
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)

Haven´t decided percentages.

Feel free to chime in new Roosh value stocks.

Political outlook is bad premise for investment or trading. The market can remain irrational more than you can remain solvent.

--OFM

Quote: (05-09-2016 06:57 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  

I was playing with the idea of a Roosh values ETF.

Holdings:

1. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)
2. Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation (SWHC)
3. PLND VanEck Vectors Poland ETF
4. Direxion Daily Russia Bull 3X ETF (RUSL)
5. Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (CHD)
6. Short S&P500 ETF
7. ULTRASHORT FTSE EUROPE ETF
8. Ryanair Holdings plc (RYAAY)
9. Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)
10. Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC)

Haven´t decided percentages.

Feel free to chime in new Roosh value stocks.

Been meaning to put this up since Monday, especially since the direction of the market has changed.

It changed to Sell Signal as of around last Wednesday. You've probably noticed that as the weakness in the market this week.

Many of my stocks have been getting stopped out. A classic indicator the market's not doing the right thing.

There's been a lot of distribution after the nasdaq went above its 200 DMA.

If you check out a chart, that looks like alot more red days on volume than black (or green days) on volume and the red days are higher volume days.

I mentioned in an earlier post looking at the 5000 level on the nasdaq as a level or resistance. Pretty much on queue, the nasdaq got almost there, to 5000 then turned around, distribution came in, and here we are on sell signal.


For aggressive technical traders who are buying individual stocks ( not talking about long term mutual fund traders ), I'm saying and following no more than 25% invested.

In summary:
* Look for stock setups (constructive patterns ) which means getting into market. We're not seeing alot of good setups now though that can change quickly
* more distribution than accumulation
* complacent sentiment…not enough bearish sentiment for a good contrarian indicator.
* As mentioned, don’t see stocks setting up
* High cash position
* watch carefully - things can change fast

Final note - this is most likely a pullback correction after that first strong leg up off the February bottom and nothing more. Time will tell.

Quote: (02-21-2016 07:46 PM)Kissinger2014 Wrote:  

*** Super speculative suggestion ***

If you want to bet some extra money, I will suggest: EZPW (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ezpw). They are a pawn shop company based in Texas, with stores throughout the U.S., Canada and Mexico. After a horrible 2015, with them shutting down their payday lawn business (and paying a fine), and some accounting problems, they are gearing up for a strong comeback. Given the recent hiccups, the street is massively undervaluing them compared to their competitors. One competitor, FCFS, which has the same revenue as EZPW is trading at 1.6x sales, while EZPW is trading at 0.20

They have an experienced CEO, who left a multimillion dollar job in Australia, to run the organization. The stock currently trades at $2.9. But the CEO's stock options vest when the stock price hits between $15 and $40.

Barring any major screwup or scandals, this stock should hit $10 by the end of the year.

***Again, very speculative stock....Do your own research*****

So it's been almost three months since I brought up as a speculative suggestion: EZPW. It's basically doubled since then to almost $6. They recently announced earnings, and new management seems to have gotten back on course. They still have to get rid of a financing division in Mexico that is a drag on earnings, and, more importantly, a drag on how Wall Street values the firm. Management says they are actively in negotiations to sell the division by the end of September, if not sooner.

This is a very speculative play (** do your own research **), but I've loaded up on this stock. I think if it can successfully divest itself of this Mexican unit, and continue doing what it's been doing with its normal pawn operations, this stock can easily reach $15 (if not higher) by the end of the year.

What is your guys experience with loss carry forwards to reduce taxable income?

I bought some shares of SDRL at $22.2 when the oil correction first occurred in Oct 2014. It is now at $3.6.

I bought roughly the same position of UWTI in January this year at the equivalent of 22.9/share, and closed it out yesterday at 35.1/share.

I don't see SDRL making a comeback any time soon, and I'm hoping to lower my exposure and reduce my taxable income at the same time. My thought is to sell off enough shares of SDRL to produce a capital loss almost equal to the gain from my UWTI sale.

Does anyone have experience doing something like this? Would the positions be treated differently for tax purposes because they are different durations? (i.e. SDRL position duration is 19 months, UWTI position is 5 months)

Scooped up a few hundred shares of MGT at $3.00

Let's see where this train is headed.

@thoughtgypsy: You should have no issue if you dispose of the SDRL stock for at least 61 days so you don't get hit with a wash sale penalty. After 61 days, just buy back the stock. Because your gain is considered a short term gain, and the loss a long term loss, you'll find that you will need to sell more SDRL relative to UWTI because of the difference in tax rates. A good accountant can walk you thru the details.

@Laurifer: 3 bucks? It never traded at $3 in RTH today bro. On a side note, McAfee is a seriously interesting character.

Quote: (05-17-2016 10:00 PM)jj90 Wrote:  

@Laurifer: 3 bucks? It never traded at $3 in RTH today bro. On a side note, McAfee is a seriously interesting character.

I picked up the shares yesterday.

He is a wild guy, but oddly also comes off as competent in his niche.

Quote: (05-17-2016 10:00 PM)jj90 Wrote:  

@thoughtgypsy: You should have no issue if you dispose of the SDRL stock for at least 61 days so you don't get hit with a wash sale penalty. After 61 days, just buy back the stock. Because your gain is considered a short term gain, and the loss a long term loss, you'll find that you will need to sell more SDRL relative to UWTI because of the difference in tax rates. A good accountant can walk you thru the details.

Thanks jj90. My understanding is that SDRL and UWTI are considered "substantially different" stocks so I would not be subject to the wash sale rule unless I were to buy SDRL up again within 60 days of selling.

From what I've read, the 5 month UWTI capital gain counts as a short term capital gain and would be counted at my marginal annual tax rate. Were I to sell my 19 month SDRL position, it would be considered a long term capital loss, which would normally offset long term capital gains taxed at 15-20%.

I've read I can offset my short term capital gains by selling stocks that would produce an equivalent long term capital loss. So if I made $1000 profit on a short term sale, it would normally be taxed at 25%. If I were to sell a long term holding at $1000 loss, it would wipe out that taxable gain, leaving the tax assessed at $0.

From what you're telling me, this is not the case, and the long term loss must be greater than the short term gain in order to offset it. If that is the case, I may choose to just hold on to the stock as the tax benefits do not appear to be substantial enough. Is this correct?

Quote: (05-17-2016 10:11 PM)Laurifer Wrote:  

Quote: (05-17-2016 10:00 PM)jj90 Wrote:  

@Laurifer: 3 bucks? It never traded at $3 in RTH today bro. On a side note, McAfee is a seriously interesting character.

I picked up the shares yesterday.

He is a wild guy, but oddly also comes off as competent in his niche.

@thoughtgypsy: Yes, for most people they will find their amount of stock to sell in the long term loss is greater on a monetary value basis to sell because of the difference in tax rates unless your marginal tax rate is lower than the long term rate.

If your ST gain is $1000 and your marginal rate is 25%, you pay $250 in tax. If your long term rate is say 20%, you would need to sell $1250 of stock to equal a $250 tax loss benefit.

The decision you face is do you expect SDRL to go up by at least the difference in monetary amounts between the gain and the loss amounts. Most people would take the tax loss(credit).

Quote: (05-18-2016 10:37 AM)thoughtgypsy Wrote:  

Quote: (05-17-2016 10:00 PM)jj90 Wrote:  

@thoughtgypsy: You should have no issue if you dispose of the SDRL stock for at least 61 days so you don't get hit with a wash sale penalty. After 61 days, just buy back the stock. Because your gain is considered a short term gain, and the loss a long term loss, you'll find that you will need to sell more SDRL relative to UWTI because of the difference in tax rates. A good accountant can walk you thru the details.

Thanks jj90. My understanding is that SDRL and UWTI are considered "substantially different" stocks so I would not be subject to the wash sale rule unless I were to buy SDRL up again within 60 days of selling.

From what I've read, the 5 month UWTI capital gain counts as a short term capital gain and would be counted at my marginal annual tax rate. Were I to sell my 19 month SDRL position, it would be considered a long term capital loss, which would normally offset long term capital gains taxed at 15-20%.

I've read I can offset my short term capital gains by selling stocks that would produce an equivalent long term capital loss. So if I made $1000 profit on a short term sale, it would normally be taxed at 25%. If I were to sell a long term holding at $1000 loss, it would wipe out that taxable gain, leaving the tax assessed at $0.

From what you're telling me, this is not the case, and the long term loss must be greater than the short term gain in order to offset it. If that is the case, I may choose to just hold on to the stock as the tax benefits do not appear to be substantial enough. Is this correct?

^ This is correct... the other is not-- As he first alluded to, consult an accountant, which we have plenty here.

Here is the short and sweet:

Losses on your investments are first used to offset capital gains of the same type. So short-term losses are first deducted against short-term gains, and long-term losses are deducted against long-term gains. Net losses of either type can then be deducted against the other kind of gain.


$1,000 ST cap gain can be offset by unloading $1,000 long term loser.

I'd actually get rid of all my losers (unless you see potential) to take advantage of the $3,000 limit on capital losses per year. This will act as a deduction against your ordinary income, making your tax return greater (or your tax owed, less).

FED minutes indicate a possible rate hike in June. Buckle up gents.

Is that, combined with some random international worry or event, going to cause the big drop in this over-inflated market that I predicted would happen June 2016-March 2017? Or is it the election we have to wait for ...

WALL STREET WARNS: GET OUT OF STOCKS, “PAINFUL SUMMER AHEAD”

http://investmentwatchblog.com/wall-stre...mer-ahead/

Quote: (05-23-2016 12:34 PM)chakalaka Wrote:  

WALL STREET WARNS: GET OUT OF STOCKS, “PAINFUL SUMMER AHEAD”

http://investmentwatchblog.com/wall-stre...mer-ahead/

Time to get long!

Interesting Article Regarding China:

President Xi’s Land Mine of Debt Is About to Explode
China's number one export is not steel, electronics, textiles or toys—It is deflation...
http://observer.com/2016/05/president-xi...o-explode/

The explosion Xi prepares is already felt. According to a top commodity producer quoted in the Financial Times about Chinese trade policy, “This is war. This is not trade.”

American politicians, starting with Donald Trump, but quickly followed by Bernie Sanders and belatedly Hillary Clinton, are preparing their counter-attack strategies. China’s number one export is not steel, electronics, textiles or toys… It is deflation. China is dumping everything from iron ore to appliances. Just walk into Best Buy and you’ll see a wall of Chinese-made air conditioners priced so low it is clear no one is making money. In fact, a good friend of mine, who is in the commodity business and visits China at least 12 times a year, said the air conditioner factories cannot pay their suppliers or truckers in cash. They’re paid with air conditioners.

I've been seeing quite a few blockchain experienced engineer job reqs lately:

Fear the Dollar Kill Switch
By Ted Bauman, Editor, The Bauman Letter

Picture the scene: A man is blackmailed as revenge for cuckolding. He brings $75,000 in $500 bills — cash that he’s acquired from a home equity line of credit — to a meeting on a bridge, as the other man has demanded.

The blackmailer looks at the cash pensively for a moment. Then he takes it out of the bag and throws it over the side.

I saw this scene in a movie recently. I’ll not soon forget the image of $75,000 in borrowed money fluttering away into the Skokomish River. My poor wife was distraught. I imagine this image gives you a jolt, too. We’re hardwired to understand that purchasing power in physical form — i.e., cash — is highly ephemeral. It can disappear in a flash.

It also gives rise to a fact that may startle you: For most of human history, we’ve lived in largely cashless societies. It’s nothing new.

Most people who write about “cashless societies” are barking up the wrong tree entirely. But I’ve discovered the real threat of modernized cashless society … and you should be terrified.

The 4% Society

If you added up all the U.S. currency in existence, how much would it be?

The total stock of cash is known as M0. It includes the bills and coins in people’s pockets and mattresses, money stored in bank vaults and all bank deposits in the Federal Reserve System. There’s $1.45 trillion in M0 right now — $1.4 trillion in actual notes and coins, the rest in Fed deposits. Additionally, at any given time, between one-half and two-thirds of U.S. dollars in the M0 money stock are held overseas.

The rest of the U.S. money supply, called M1 and M2, resides in bank accounts of various types. M1 represents M0 plus all of the “virtual” money in checking and other transaction accounts. The current M1 money supply for U.S. dollars is about $3.2 trillion. M2 is M1 plus all of the “virtual” money on long-term deposit. It’s about $12.6 trillion.

So, of the $12.6 trillion in U.S. dollars, only 11% of it is actual currency. The rest is virtual currency.

But there’s more: More than three-quarters of the stock of physical U.S. dollars consists of $100 bills. About 25% of those $100 bills are overseas; the rest are either in private storage in the U.S. or in use in the “black economy.”

This means that the amount of actual U.S. cash in daily legal use is about 4% of the total U.S. money supply. Most of the rest is virtual money that exists only as ledger entries on banks’ computer systems.

In other words, ours is already a 96% cashless society.

The Paradox of Cash: It’s Always the Government’s Money

The paradox of physical cash is that we see it as a way to preserve our financial independence … but it’s issued by the very government from which we wish to preserve that independence. That’s because, for better or worse, the government is the social construct our ancestors chose to authorize and issue our money.

In ancient times, this role might have been played by market ledger-keepers, goldsmiths or private bankers. One of the great advantages of these nongovernment sources of money was that if they didn’t do a good job, people could turn to someone else who did. That’s why bitcoin was invented, to give us an option.

But even though it’s always the government’s money, the government could never turn specific dollars “off” at will … until now.

Blame it on Bitcoin

Recently, more than 100 executives from some of the world’s largest financial institutions gathered for a secret meeting on Wall Street.

They had come to see the results of a secret project run by a 21-year-old programming prodigy named Vitalik Buterin. His work is sponsored jointly by Wall Street and the U.S. government. The project is based on the same technology used by bitcoin to verify transactions — the “blockchain.” The assembled bankers saw U.S. dollars transformed into pure digital assets, able to execute and settle a trade instantly with no banks in between. Pure virtual money.

Under Buterin’s system, when I pay Amazon for a purchase, my stock of dollars is debited and Amazon’s is credited — instantly. No bank accounts, no debit or credit cards, no checks — just changing points on our respective financial scoreboards on the dollar blockchain. This system would save banks and retailers up to $20 billion a year, since money wouldn’t have to spend useless time in the settlement process between different intermediaries.

But under this system, the government would have ultimate control over the blockchain. It would hold a master key over all digital dollars. It could meddle with anyone’s virtual dollars, instantly, with no warning or recourse.

For example, the IRS could disable a proportion of a business’s virtual dollars until it settles a tax dispute. A judge could order that funds belonging to a person charged with a crime be disabled pending the outcome of his trial. The FBI could issue a secret national security letter instructing that the money of a suspected money launderer be disabled. An unscrupulous president could secretly instruct that the funds of their political opponents be disrupted or shut off to undermine their campaigns.

The government could even suspend the validity of all U.S. dollars in an emergency.

Fear the Kill Switch

Most people who write about the cashless society emphasize the danger of the government confiscating bank deposits, banning international transfers or imposing negative interest rates. That’s all true. But what really scares me isn’t just the possibility that the government could control our bank accounts, but every single individual dollar.

Would you trust any government with that power? Of course not. That’s why it’s time to start preparing for the inevitable day when you won’t have any other option ... unless you act now.

You might start by opening an account with my friends at New Zealand vault. It’s the only service I know that allows you to acquire and store nonreportable precious metals outside the U.S. … without having to leave home.

Kind regards,

Ted Bauman
Editor, The Bauman Letter

P.S. America is growing more and more divided, and the coming dollar kill switch will only serve to deepen this divide. What’s more, between a faltering economy and a crucial presidential election, we are faced with significant threats to both our liberties and our assets. It’s time to protect yourself before it’s too late.

Quote: (05-09-2016 03:02 PM)Omad Wrote:  

VRX is below $30 again. I sold the $20 puts today, they're around 1 standard deviation away. Looks like I sold them a little early.

My overall portfolio Delta is short so I can use the long Delta's.

I closed my VRX puts today for 0.55. I sold them 15 days ago at 1.20, at the time VRX was trading above $28, when I closed them it was trading around $27.

So wrong directionally but volatility contraction and Theta worked for me!

Late update this week. I'm thinking the market is almost to a buy signal. We were still strongly on a sell signal as of Monday, but there were two strong up days, Tues and Wed or strong volume. If these levels hold and especially go up from here on good volume, I will be on a buy signal next week.

More importantly, stocks are starting to break out of their corrective bases and hold those breakouts at least, as of, today which is Friday.

Stocks of note (IPOs no less ) on good up volume edging out of their sideways/ nominal corrections : DLTH, OLLI, ADBE (not an IPO, but a solid large cap leader)

It looks like we’re building a ‘right side’ in the market in terms of charts which I don't have time to put up now.

Old highs in nasdaq in 5000 level liable to introduce upside resistance.

On the other side of the equation, I'm viewing breakouts with suspicion here. If you back out from the S&P chart and look at the market from a weekly/multi year chart, it resembles, somewhat , the grinding topping process the market made in 2007/08. If recent lows are pierced, it could portend a watershed correction which could be trouble. HOWEVER, as of now, with the up days this week, that likelihood just got a bit less.

it could obviously go either way.

I’d like to see us ‘breakout’ to the upside and follow through convincingly next week.

Sentiment has been getting more bearish which is good for a contrarian viewpoint. It’s always better to be at extremes in bearish sentiment which we’re not at, but it is increasing. When we're at bearish extremes, market uptrend are not believed and viewed with skepticism. The market keeps rising. The bears grow even more suspicious knowing there's about to be a sell off. The sell off doesn't happen because this is a legitimate new bull market uptrend but that is not known now. Eventually, one day down the road, the bears become bulls as the uptrend continues, absolutely killing them that they didn't get in earlier and, in desperation, they finally buy, becoming bulls. This would be an ideal scenario to play out.

Like I said, I'm skeptical of these breakouts as well, but I'm buying them.

I implement stops in case I'm wrong, but at least I won't be a doubting Thomas bear who is all in cash and not participating in the upside as the new leg up (if that's what this is) of this long multi year bull market we're still in (started 03/2009) keeps going up and up and up. I'll be in.


In summary:

* Was still strongly on sell signal until Thursday after two strong up days.
* A few stock setups are starting to breakout and even follow through. View with caution
* Lots of distribution the past few weeks but was accumulation (up market days on increased volume) picking up late this week.
* Sentiment getting more bearish but not at extremes
* With breakouts this week, cash starting to go into stocks breaking out but not getting over zealous. Invested levels between 25% to 50% tops until we're in a confirmed uptrend.
* 25% to 50% invested.
(this outlook and advice goes for stock traders who buy individual stocks, maybe 5 - 10 stocks per portfolio, i.e. a fairly aggressive growth portfolio)

What do you guys think about Gold at these levels?

Quote: (05-30-2016 12:06 PM)Gunner Wrote:  

What do you guys think about Gold at these levels?

Gold's been in a nice range for the last few months, getting short up around 1300 and long around 1200 has worked well.

I'm long gold via call spreads in GLD. I tried to put a futures position on on Friday but didn't get filled, golds up a little now so I'll wait for a pullback and try again.

In saying that I've got no idea which way gold is going to go, no one does. Your opinion is worth just as much as anyone else's . It's a 50/50 bet, no amount of analysis, technical or fundamental changes those odds. Earlier in the year all the experts were saying oil was going below $20, no one knows.

Anyone have an opinion on Lending Club?

Evidently they had a new CEO put in and that sent the stock down to the toilet, seems to me it might be a great time to buy. LC is servicing a ton of loans so I don't see why they'd ever go out of business unless something seriously illegal is going on.

Some big investment group in China thinks so and bought a ton of shares that made the price bounce up a little bit.

Update # 16

Close on the heels of the Friday update I did because my model is now on a Buy.

Today(Monday) was a mixed day helped by late afternoon buying.

I'm going to watch closely for distribution (selling coming back into the market ) here to make sure this buy signal stays in tact. Ideally, we'll get modest, light volume down days, mixed with strong up days, adding fuel to this rally.

We're working on building the "right side" of the market in cup and handle fashion:





In the above chart, the nasdaq successfully tested the 4700 level. The level was briefly (one one day) undercut but held and then turned up from there on good volume.

The nasdaq (and other indices) holding their levels here was a bullish sign. Now, the $ 64,000 question is, can we avoid distribution and continue to hold and move up from here?

It's time to start adding exposure to stocks. I wouldn't necessarily go 100% in, but somewhere around 30- 50% invested as stocks break out is reasonable. As this rally continues to prove itself, let new breakouts draw you in, becoming more and more heavily invested.

As always, if breakouts fail and, even worse BASES fail, you should be getting stopped out and raising cash.

On another positive note, sentiment is more bearish than not. There are many doubting Thomas' out there that this is not for real. Of course, this new uptrend may not be for real. It may fail in the next few days, or the next week or two with heavy distribution, but we'll have to watch.

The good thing about all the bears doubting means all that cash sitting on the sidelines. If this is the beginning of a new leg up, it could turn into a run-away rally (melt up) in the market as the doubters slowly, reluctantly become believers and begin to spending that cash, buying equities. That's what I'm hoping for.

Stocks of note: AMZN ( not currently in a base but I think it may be the next Apple. Their growing market share in the retail space is ridiculous and box stores are in danger of losing their market share to Amazon) ADBE - I mentioned last week, it has broken out and started to drift up a bit. There's some other IPOs I like here and there.

In summary:

* Buy signal initiated.
* Leaders emerging
* Watch close for distribution and reversal
* Make sure breakouts hold
* Start buying quality stocks in constructive patterns
* Always practice using stops. Cut losers short.