[AManLikePutin]

It's all developing very quickly....Saudi and Qatar (long allies) are heavily going against each other. This could potentially be huge.

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[url=https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/871555017337180162]

[Paracelsus]

Maybe while they're killing each other there'll be slightly fewer incidents of little girls being blown up at concerts.

[SamuelBRoberts]

What's the deal with these people?

Also yeah, I'm hoping for a nice big body count and lots of property damage that bankrupts both nations.
If Saudi Arabia buys more expensive equipment from us, that works too.

[Arado]

Saudi accusing Qatar of funding terrorism? Is this a joke?

[komatiite]

Wow -- this is interesting. Qatar has the largest offshore gas/condensate field on Earth - the North Dome Field. Arguably why the war in Syria is being fought - to get that gas pipeline to Europe.

Are the Saudis, Egyptians, UAE actually being serious about condemning Qatar funding terrorism? If so, does this imply that the Gulf states are willing to leave Qatar on a proverbial island, leaving that resource stranded? I'd imagine that Qatar requires formidable Western technology to exploit this field, which would have come via Saudi Aramco's highly paid technical team of Western expats.

[DarkTriad]

(06-04-2017 10:46 PM)komatiite Wrote:  

Wow -- this is interesting. Qatar has the largest offshore gas/condensate field on Earth - the North Dome Field. Arguably why the war in Syria is being fought - to get that gas pipeline to Europe.

Are the Saudis, Egyptians, UAE actually being serious about condemning Qatar funding terrorism? If so, does this imply that the Gulf states are willing to leave Qatar on a proverbial island, leaving that resource stranded? I'd imagine that Qatar requires formidable Western technology to exploit this field, which would have come via Saudi Aramco's highly paid technical team of Western expats.

Bingo. This may have been what Trump was doing in the Middle East in the first place. The Qatar pipeline was the reason the whole place was a flashpoint/tug of war to begin with.

[Quintus Curtius]

This is a Saudi scam.

It's all about Qatar's failure to join Riyadh's "let's hate Iran" club. Qatar has decent bilateral relations with Iran and some joint development projects planned.

Saudi Arabia sees itself as the "leader" of the Sunni world and wants to force all the Sunni Arab countries into an anti-Iranian stance. They (and Israel, due to a confluence of interest) are constantly whipping up the world into an anti-Shia and anti-Iran frenzy. That's the backstory behind this.

It all comes down to Riyadh's rage that Qatar dares to take a non-hostile position with Tehran.

Things just got a little darker in the region, I'm afraid. This is a serious step, and it is clear that Riyadh is serious about eventually trying to manipulate the world into an attack on Iran. They may have been emboldened by Trump's recent visit to the region: they likely see him as an uninformed person who would be easy to manipulate.

The bitter irony of all this, of course, is that the Saudis are drenched in blood. They have been bombing Yemen unrelentingly. They have been fomenting the war in Syria from the beginning, along with Turkey and others.

.

[iop890]

[url=https://twitter.com/InternetHippo/status/871569024924098560][/url]

[RIslander]

It's either saber rattling on behalf of Saudi to exact demands or a prelude to war. This is a serious situation.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

Could this be what Trump has been doing there all along? Telling Saudi Arabia to cut that shit out while making a deal against those unwilling to do fall in line...?

[Traktor]

(06-05-2017 01:26 AM)Handsome Creepy Eel Wrote:  

Could this be what Trump has been doing there all along? Telling Saudi Arabia to cut that shit out while making a deal against those unwilling to do fall in line...?

And selling them arms by the planeload, many of which will end up in Yemen where they will be used to bomb the shit out of the most misfortunate people on the planet in the world after the Palestinians and/or with the crazies in Syria.

[Traktor]

Unconfirmed reports that a potential coup in Qatar is imminent. Qatar Air Force planes flying non stop over the country.

[SamuelBRoberts]

Did this come out of nowhere or do we all just not give a damn what happens in Qatar?

[Simeon_Strangelight]

I have always said that the war machine will come home to the gulf states. Every Muslim Arab country will either get a color revolution, a civil war or outright war. Would not surprise me if they go fight with Qatar now. Yemen was obliterated recently, so we will see.

[MidJack]

I have spent a lot of time in Qatar over the past 20 years. Qatar's emir has been playing both sides of Arab/Persian geopolitics for a long time. I don't have any inside information on this particular situation, but here are a few points.

1. If there is a military coup in Qatar, that puts the U.S. in a very interesting position because practically, the U.S. is Qatar's military. On the other hand, if Turkey is any indication, the CIA no longer knows how to properly sponsor a coup.

2. The U.S. has a major air base in Qatar, and the Qatari government has made it increasingly difficult to maintain and operate that base even though it provides essential military protection to the country.

3. Of the petroleum-rich middle eastern countries, Qatar is one of the least self sufficient. They seem to have nearly no organic technical capability or labor base. Lots of luxury car dealers though.

[Mekorig]

The whole region is goinf slowly to hell. Bahrain have serious issues with its native shia population (repressing them almost constantly), Yemen is a bloodbath for the Saudi military (or moron army i would say), and even the internal situation inside Saudi Arabia itself its not the better, both politically and economically. And now this.

[Hypno]

Saudis are also fighting a war with Yemen. Some suspect that the goal is to take over Yemen's oil fields. Saudis are trying to IPO their oil business Aramco and rumors are that they will only get a fraction of what they want because there is large mistrust over the size of their reserves. More gas coming online - whether from Quatar or Iran or Russia via Ukraine or via Afghanistan -is not good for the price of oil.

You'll notice that the greatest military in the world has a habbit of betting bogged down in places like Iraq and Afghanistan when, coincidentally, it serves political interests to occupy those regions.

[Foolsgo1d]

Hmm. I say wait and see before jumping in on this but if the Gulf states are calling time on a single neighbour for their attitude towards Iran, it means someone is pushing them unilaterally.

Is the deep state pushing this to force confrontation with Iran? Anyone who is friendly with them, bar China and Russia have been removed or crippled.

[Chevy Woonsocket]

So four Muslim countries just instituted a travel ban because of terrorism?

[WeekendCasanova]

This irony of this situation is delicious.

[Quintus Curtius]

There are longstanding policy disputes between Qatar on one hand, and the Saudi--Bahrain--UAE clique on the other. The two sides differ on a number of issues, including the Palestinian issue, the Yemen issue, the Syria issue, the Muslim Brotherhood and its role, the Hamas issue, and the stance on Iran. These differences have been smoldering for while now.

Very recently some allegedly "hacked" statements were published on Al Jazeera that were attributed to the emir of Qatar. The Qataris did not detract them for about 6 or 7 hours after they were released. These statements angered some parties in the region.

But beyond the minutiae, the basic and fundamental issue behind all this is Saudi Arabia's extreme sense of anxiety and fear over alleged Iranian "expansionism" in the region. Riyadh sees itself as surrounded by Iranian tentacles, despite the fact that this perception is wildly exaggerated.

What really needs to happen here is for some real statesman to step in and mediate this. The Arabs know how to make deals with each other, but sometimes it helps to have a mediator when tempers are running high. Border closings, expulsions of diplomats, tit-for-tat accusations, and even bombs going off: this is part and parcel of how governments in the region communicate with each other, and it's not usually as big a deal as Westerners think. Still, though, bad things can happen.

It would be real stroke of diplomatic skill if some mediator of stature could step in here and do something. I doubt the Saudis would accept anyone other than an American or a Western European.

.

[Foolsgo1d]

(06-05-2017 10:22 AM)Quintus Curtius Wrote:  

What really needs to happen here is for some real statesman to step in and mediate this. The Arabs know how to make deals with each other, but sometimes it helps to have a mediator when tempers are running high. Border closings, expulsions of diplomats, tit-for-tat accusations, and even bombs going off: this is part and parcel of how governments in the region communicate with each other, and it's not usually as big a deal as Westerners think. Still, though, bad things can happen.

It would be real stroke of diplomatic skill if some mediator of stature could step in here and do something. I doubt the Saudis would accept anyone other than an American or a Western European.

Sounds like someone with skills in international business and a special project in the pipeline is needed.

[The Beast1]

This would explosively help raise oil prices if the whole area starts going to war. Geopolitics are fun!

[eljeffster]

This seems like the opportunity for a great deal. We offer a defense deal. They get protection and we get exclusive control of oilfield territory (like Panama zone). We allow companies to extract oil with healthy taxes/fees that are not to high as to decentivize.

The fees go to paying down the debt and some for infrastructure - say 70/30%. Oil extracted must be sent to refineries located in the US.

[AManLikePutin]

Iranian foreign minister (Zarif) subtly trolling all parties asking for a dialogue and making up. Clearly not getting too carried away

https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-urges-di...39240.html

- Already a very noticeable shift of plane routes now that Qatar can't fly over Saudi airspace. Additional source of income for Iran as Qatar Airways have ). This is not free of course. They must pay Iran for each flight. QA flights has to go through A) Iran-Iraq-Jordan to reach ME locations or B) Iran-Turkey to reach Europe(an Union)..



- Iran takes a break. Couple of weeks ago, Trump came to unite the Arabs against Iran (& ofcourse milk them). Now, the GCC Arabs are fighting among themselves. This means their focus on Iran and their collective pressure on Iran will have to fall as the spend resources trying to backstab each other. Don't get this twisted either, It's not simply Qatar vs. the rest. Kuwait and Oman are certainly not on the Saudi side. Turkey is closer to Qatar (has extensive military and economic ties). At the same time, Qatar has considerable influence through bribes and public diplomacy with the Muslim Brotherhood and other extreme factions which are spread out all across the Arab world. If things get serious (which is doubtful), feasible to expect possible assassinations and the usual suicide bombs.

- On impact on Syria. Qatar/Saudi/UAE/Turkey each back certain rebel factions in Syria. Qatar backs the most extreme (excluding ISIS) and powerful group: Al-Nusra. It is very likely that we will witness an extension of infighting between the rebel factions in Syria and more specifically in Idlib. As they kill each other, Iranian (+allies) take the rest of Syria. Chiefly, Iran is establishing a land corridor with one end in Tehran and the other in Beirut

- Media. There is a lot of talk about the possibility of Qatar taking down Al-Jazeera. The most influential news service in the Arab world, which can be compared to RT America in regards to approach. It tends to have a certain level of independence and does openly criticise Saudi and other GCC policies. In fact, I'd say, Al Jazeera was one of the key reasons behind this 'attack' on Qatar. If (big IF), Al Jazeera gets closed down, it opens the scene for other 'alternative' news services' both in the Arab speaking world and for the Muslims across the world. Here, Iranian owned Al-Alaam (Arabic), Press TV (English) and Al-Mayadeen (Arabic) can step in and fill the gap

All in all, this depends on how long this conflict carries on. Looking at Qatar's somewhat neo-liberal economy, it's largely dependent on foreign investment, trade and overall relations. Chances are, if the pressure increases, Qatar will give in. intelligent stance from Zarif and Iran so far. While, knowing that severe relations with Qatar and GCC benefit Iran, he acknowledges that the Iran can't trust them because after all, all those Arab countries are "Brothers" and can't resist and by next week things may go back to normal.

P.S. Spare a thought for the Qatar-financed ((("Think-thanks"))) on TV like Michael Weiss & Charlie Lister. Possibly no more pay-cheques for them to spread Qatari talking points and propaganda on Syria.

Iran has already offered to start sending food to Qatar in the next 12 hours (I saw photos of people rushing to supermarkets in Doha today to stockpile on food)

https://www.radiofarda.com/a/f4_iran_rea...29662.html


Basem also has an interesting take re: this

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[url=https://twitter.com/BBassem7/status/871599124944003072]