Iranian foreign minister (Zarif) subtly trolling all parties asking for a dialogue and making up. Clearly not getting too carried away
https://www.yahoo.com/news/iran-urges-di...39240.html
- Already a very noticeable shift of plane routes now that Qatar can't fly over Saudi airspace. Additional source of income for Iran as Qatar Airways have ). This is not free of course. They must pay Iran for each flight. QA flights has to go through A) Iran-Iraq-Jordan to reach ME locations or B) Iran-Turkey to reach Europe(an Union)..
- Iran takes a break. Couple of weeks ago, Trump came to unite the Arabs against Iran (& ofcourse milk them). Now, the GCC Arabs are fighting among themselves. This means their focus on Iran and their collective pressure on Iran will have to fall as the spend resources trying to backstab each other. Don't get this twisted either, It's not simply Qatar vs. the rest. Kuwait and Oman are certainly not on the Saudi side. Turkey is closer to Qatar (has extensive military and economic ties). At the same time, Qatar has considerable influence through bribes and public diplomacy with the Muslim Brotherhood and other extreme factions which are spread out all across the Arab world. If things get serious (which is doubtful), feasible to expect possible assassinations and the usual suicide bombs.
- On impact on Syria. Qatar/Saudi/UAE/Turkey each back certain rebel factions in Syria. Qatar backs the most extreme (excluding ISIS) and powerful group: Al-Nusra. It is very likely that we will witness an extension of infighting between the rebel factions in Syria and more specifically in Idlib. As they kill each other, Iranian (+allies) take the rest of Syria. Chiefly, Iran is establishing a land corridor with one end in Tehran and the other in Beirut
- Media. There is a lot of talk about the possibility of Qatar taking down Al-Jazeera. The most influential news service in the Arab world, which can be compared to RT America in regards to approach. It tends to have a certain level of independence and does openly criticise Saudi and other GCC policies. In fact, I'd say, Al Jazeera was one of the key reasons behind this 'attack' on Qatar. If (big IF), Al Jazeera gets closed down, it opens the scene for other 'alternative' news services' both in the Arab speaking world and for the Muslims across the world. Here, Iranian owned Al-Alaam (Arabic), Press TV (English) and Al-Mayadeen (Arabic) can step in and fill the gap
All in all, this depends on how long this conflict carries on. Looking at Qatar's somewhat neo-liberal economy, it's largely dependent on foreign investment, trade and overall relations. Chances are, if the pressure increases, Qatar will give in. intelligent stance from Zarif and Iran so far. While, knowing that severe relations with Qatar and GCC benefit Iran, he acknowledges that the Iran can't trust them because after all, all those Arab countries are "Brothers" and can't resist and by next week things may go back to normal.
P.S. Spare a thought for the Qatar-financed ((("Think-thanks"))) on TV like Michael Weiss & Charlie Lister. Possibly no more pay-cheques for them to spread Qatari talking points and propaganda on Syria.
Iran has already offered to start sending food to Qatar in the next 12 hours (I saw photos of people rushing to supermarkets in Doha today to stockpile on food)
https://www.radiofarda.com/a/f4_iran_rea...29662.html
Basem also has an interesting take re: this
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Quote:[url=https://twitter.com/BBassem7/status/871599124944003072]