Quote: (10-14-2016 12:58 AM)Que enspastic Wrote:
The CP doesn't have "full and absolute power". It's a contest between various military factions from here on. That's why it's scary. At the moment there is no such thing as a Thai Republican. In a few years from now there could be millions of them pitting themselves against millions of monarchists, both camps led by military factions.
I think you severely underestimate how powerful the royal family is.
Every Thai coup that has happened in recent history was given the royal greenlight before it was allowed to occur. The junta in power right now is there because of royal dealings behind the scene to push out Yingluck and before that Thaksin. Thaksin tried to subvert the old elite with his new money empire and friends. Look what happened.
If you think royals don't have anything to do with coups then I have a bridge to sell you.
The Crown prince isn't merely _a_ royal he is the direct successor to Bhumibol and Thais take that very seriously. Even loyalists who don't like the idea of the C.P. as a man will fall in line. There is a whole line of families with titles and other honorifics who have supported the King's family for
centuries...through war and peace and through every succession controversy imaginable. That isn't going to change overnight.
They are the largest landowners in the nation. Crown property bureau is immensely wealthy. Land = power in SEA. This is a concept that is a hard thing for outsiders to grasp it's very feudal.
King Bhumibol had a fairly soft but powerful touch when it came to populist movements (Northeast red shirt politics) and allowed them into government as long as things didn't get out of hand. However his son will probably take a much harsher stance towards dissent.
The royal family isn't merely above the law in Thailand. They
are Thailand and make a lot of the rules and politics that go on. A royal title and bestowed honorifics still means a lot in Thailand. I know a family that actually has one of those minor honorifics from a long time ago and it commands a lot of respect even now. Now magnify that by about 1000x and you get the power of the royal family. It's true that most Thais don't like the C.P. but they have deep reverence for most of the other family members. A large populist revolt won't happen for this reason either.
I'm all ears though if you believe there are certain military figureheads that can challenge the royal family directly i'd be curious as to who that is.
I recommend reading the wikileaks embassy cables with Thailand. It's really interesting.