[polar]

This thread is to discuss the consequences and aftermath of Brexit.

Split from the celebration of the prior Brexit thread here.

Now that the dust has settled and Brexit is a reality...

Once the euphoria subsides, it may become clear that the Brexit will be a long, and at least somewhat painful process as the UK's economy adjusts. Financial markets are already falling and will be quite volatile for some time. Given that the world has not had an economic crisis or recession in some time, this might be that straw that breaks the camel's back.

There may be companies which leave London for Frankfurt or Paris. If the GBP stays down, imports will jump in price and inflation will follow. The question is a matter of how long the high-volatility adjustment period will last.

For instance, Economist briefings :
http://www.economist.com/sites/default/f...iefs16.pdf

Quote:


1. Truth and lies
Voters want clear facts about the European Union. They are given myths instead
2. Euroscepticism
Hostility to the EU in Britain is different from anything found on the continent
3. Sovereignty
Eurosceptics want to regain control—but the search for sovereignty is a delusion
4. Trade
Post-Brexit Britain would probably end up with fewer and worse trade deals than it has now
5. Immigration
Britain outside the European Union might not be able to stop EU migration
6. Economics
In the event of Brexit, incomes might fall a little, but the risk of bigger losses is clear
7. Business
Most businesses want to stay in the EU but some are cautious of saying so
8. The terms of the deal
Being out of the euro and Schengen gives Britain the best of both worlds
9. The view from Europe
The EU would suffer from Brexit so might not be kind to Britain afterwards
10. Finance
If Britain leaves the EU, it will be hard for London to remain Europe’s financial centre
11. Security
Leaving the EU could cause much collateral damage to Britain’s security
12. Agriculture
Although British farmers benefit from EU funding, many support Brexit
13. Bureaucracy
Brexiteers say they will scrap much EU regulation, but they may not end up doing so
14. How to leave
Britain’s withdrawal process from the EU could be long and painful
15. The United Kingdom
The place to fret most about after a Brexit is not Scotland but Northern Ireland
16. A multispeed EU
Different countries engaging to different degrees suits Britain—and others
17. The consequences
Brexiteers are deliberately vague about alternatives to EU membership. That is because most other models are unsatisfactory

https://www.cliffordchance.com/briefings...appen.html

Call these sources pro-globalism, but the impact on the European and British economies will be real.

I hope that the UK won't let this crisis go to waste and become a positive role model for the European Union, which is mired in red tape and inaction to external crises.

Discuss...

[Sidney Crosby]

Less Muslims, migrant trash and no more giving money to useless fucking Greeks = Priceless

Only disadvantage is there won't be an onslaught of Ukrainian girls (once they join the EU)

[tomzestatlu]

From short-term view, there can be some difficulties. But from long-term view, it is amazing thing. Only future is important. Other European nations should follow and restore their souveregnity. Europe awake

[Luvianka]

These are geopolitical games we are still to know. It's very suspicious that the Queen gave a last time push for the exit.
For me, the key factor to follow is that the UK is going to align behind China and the yuan.
To stop inmigtation? Well, maybe Muslim inmigration at some extent. However, the UK has a migration dynamics by iself -Hindus, Pakis, Jamaicans, etc.

[polar]

Bloomberg news on what the next steps are. There are still many open questions.

Quote:


What Now? Brexit Win Sets Stage for Two Years of Bitter Talks

U.K. companies need new regime to access $13.6 trillion market
EU rules give Britain two years to negotiate terms of exit
While final votes are still being tallied, it’s clear that British voters have opted to walk out on the European Union, setting up at least two years of bitter talks. Here’s a road map of what’s to come.
Will David Cameron Resign Immediately?
Possibly, but even the prime minister’s opponents have said they want him to stay on for a few months because an immediate resignation would only spell more instability. Eighty-four pro-Brexit Conservative Party lawmakers sent him a letter on Thursday saying they wanted him to continue no matter the result. So he may stay on for long enough to start negotiations with the EU.
What Happens Next?
Exit negotiations start as soon as Cameron tells the bloc’s other leaders he’s triggering the secession process under Article 50 of the EU treaty. Most leaders will want him to do that as soon as possible -- perhaps even at a summit of EU leaders in Brussels on June 28 -- but British lawmakers may urge him to delay for several weeks or months to give them time to work out the way forward.

Either way, the other national leaders will want to know what sort of relationship the U.K. wants to have with the EU. Before then, there may be an emergency meeting of finance ministers over the weekend.
Once Article 50 is set in motion, the U.K. formally has two years to negotiate its way out of the bloc. Analysts say it’s unlikely that this will be long enough to work out the more complex trading accords and talks are likely to continue long after the U.K. officially leaves.
Who Will Lead the Negotiations?
Cameron’s successor is most likely to be one of the leaders of the Brexit campaign, such as former London mayor Boris Johnson or Justice Secretary Michael Gove. Their presence may harden the stance of other EU governments. The Leave vote may also prompt calls for a general election to clear the decks and elect a government specifically charged to negotiate with the rest of the EU.
What Sort of Deal Does Britain Want?
That’s still to be decided, and something that the Leave camp couldn’t answer definitively during its winning campaign. Three issues in particular will be in focus for investors and executives: What new agreement will regulate the $575 billion of annual trade between Britain and the rest of the EU? On what terms will U.K. companies be able to access the EU’s $13.6 trillion single market? And will banks domiciled in the U.K. continue to be able to do business in the rest of the EU?
There are three broad options:
The Norwegian Model
By staying in the looser European Economic Area, the U.K. would still have access to the EU’s single market and participate in free movement of workers -- but without any say in how they evolve -- and it would still contribute to the EU budget. Banks prefer this model because it would preserve their access to EU customers.

New Deal
Negotiating its own free-trade agreement would limit most trade tariffs between the U.K. and the 27-nation bloc but it would take years to work out the extent of Britain’s market access. The EU’s trade agreement with Canada took seven years to negotiate and still isn’t ratified.

WTO Rules
Trading with the EU under World Trade Organization rules would avoid the hassle of setting up a complex new agreement and the U.K. could set its own trade tariffs just like Russia and Brazil do. But it would have no favorable relationship with the EU or any other country.

What Will the EU Offer?
Domestic politics will play its part and leaders from Helsinki to Athens may not want to give a favorable deal with extensive market access for Britain because that would risk encouraging similar anti-EU movements in their own countries.
The response will largely fall into two camps: the pragmatic German approach will probably acknowledge that the U.K. needs to remain a major trading partner; the French will be leading another group who believe exit shouldn’t be easy and that countries on the outside don’t merit the same favorable conditions as EU members.
Add to the mix the rise of anti-EU sentiment in eastern Europe, a drive for deeper integration in the euro area and some sympathy for Britain’s decision among Nordic governments, and it’s clear the next few years won’t be straightforward.
What Do Banks Want?
Financial-services firms have a long list of concerns but the most important is “passporting.” That’s the legal regime that allows a bank domiciled in one EU country to do business in any other. Without it, international lenders will probably have to move substantial operations out of the U.K. in favor of Frankfurt, Dublin, Paris or other hubs.
Another issue is euro-denominated trading and settlement -- the EU is wary of allowing those transactions to continue unrestricted out of reach of its regulators. Asset managers’ ability to sell mutual funds across the continent is another privilege that may be up for review. Those rules will be a major focus for the U.K., since finance is so important to its economy.
What Do Employers Want?
Chain operators like Whitbread Plc, lodging groups like InterContinental Hotels Group Plc and retailers like J Sainsbury Plc are all heavily dependent on European workers: almost three-quarters of workers in the hospitality sector in London are foreign-born.
With the Leave campaign promising to end the free movement of European citizens "by the next election," the hospitality and retail sectors will have to find ways to attract British staff, perhaps by paying higher wages. How fast that has to occur will depend on what happens to EU citizens already resident in Britain.
While U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage has said those living in the country now should be allowed to stay, no one yet knows what the criteria will be and implementation of the new rules will depend entirely on future legislation.
What Do Manufacturers Want?
Market access is the biggest question hanging over British manufacturers. Before the referendum, companies from Diageo Plc to Rolls-Royce Plc warned of the consequences of being shut out of the EU, the destination for about 44 percent, or about 223 billion pounds, of U.K. exports. Just 16 billion pounds worth of exports goes to China.
Securing a comprehensive free-trade deal that keeps that flow moving in both directions without tariffs will be manufacturers’ top priority. That’s especially true for companies with integrated supply chains like GKN Plc, which sources parts in Spain and Italy, assembles them into drivetrains in the U.K., and then sells them on to European carmakers.
What Do Farmers Want?
Farmers did better out of the EU than almost anyone. Roughly 40 percent of the bloc’s budget goes to the complex subsidies of the Common Agricultural Policy. British farmers received 3.1 billion euros ($3.5 billion) in direct payments last year. Another 5.2 billion euros is allocated to the U.K. for rural development projects through 2020.
The Leave campaign said that “subsidies will continue” after Brexit, because the U.K. will be able to redirect payments that it currently makes to the EU budget. But like every other aspect of Britain’s post-EU business landscape, this is a matter of future legislation, and the U.K. government will face many other demands on its budget.

[NilNisiOptimum]

I asked this question in the other thread, so I'll ask it again here so it doesn't get completely buried:

What other nations (if any) will look look at the British and get hopeful of their own exit?

I imagine from an immigration standpoint, Italy would like to tell the EU off as they're bearing a large part of the burden of the migration crisis. I did see it mentioned that there are now rumblings of an exit vote for the Dutch, but I haven't been following this topic long enough to understand their sentiments.

[CodyB]

If the UK gains a free trade agreement with the EU and retains the leverage to low tariff trade with the rest of the world it will become a powerhouse.

[Excelsior]

[The Beast1]

Why are we opening multiple threads? We already have one and can easily add the aftermath results to the current discussion. This thread is better served in the subforum.

[The Beast1]

Delete

[Phoenix]

(06-24-2016 12:44 AM)The Beast1 Wrote:  

Why are we opening multiple threads? We already have one and can easily add the aftermath results to the current discussion. This thread is better served in the subforum.

Agreed, this thread should be closed.