[iknowexactly]

(03-13-2015 09:33 AM)DirectDanger Wrote:  

(03-13-2015 05:20 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  

(03-10-2015 03:28 PM)DirectDanger Wrote:  

Looking at a really long term chart on the EUR/USD you can see how much further it could fall.

This chart goes back to 1994, which is well before the Euro was introduced. I think how they get the chart so far back is using a basket of the previous euro currencies compared with the dollar.

It has broken through a wedge formation and there is no more support levels until 0.85. There should be a bounce pretty soon. Things don't normally go straight down.

Do you know enough about this to recommend what type of options to cheaply buy to lock in low Euro prices for say 12-18 months?

I'm thinking if it hits 85 I can spend $500-1000 on a bull call spread/bear put spread in some leveraged thing and be able to get cheap Euros for a while.

I know enough about options to get in trouble. I would hate to give advice on the subject and not have it work out.

I trade futures contracts only. Mostly CL (crude oil), NG (natural gas), GC (gold), SI (silver), ES (S&P 500), 6E (EUR/USD), 6J (JPY/USD), ZB (30 year treasury bond).

HAha I know what you mean my own advice has cost me LOTS of money...

[Orson]

Above I asserted that most people expect interest rates on the USD to rise. Since the first of the New Year of 2015, over 20 some central banks have lowered interest rates. This affects economies on every continent: see HERE http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-cur...eid=yhoof2

This is negative pressure on the market value of non-USD currencies. Meanwhile, the US Fed has been looking to raise interest rates - for the first time in over 9 years.

From a report last Tuesday night in the US:

Quote:

STEVE LIESMAN, NIGHTLY BUSINESS REPORT CORRESPONDENT: The word is
just eight letters, but there`s billions of dollars around the globe riding
on it. The Federal Reserve looks set to remove the word “patience” from
its statement — a word that is used to signal that there would be no rate
hike for at least two meetings. [Which they subsequently did, Thursday.] But 69 percent of [economists] respondents to the Fed survey say the U.S. Central Bank will lose patience — that word that is — and the pave the way for possible rate hikes in the months ahead. When?

Survey [of economists] respondents (INAUDIBLE) ahead their expectation for the Fed`s first rate hike in nine years to August of this year, from September. But they see very gentle rate hikes. The Fed funds rate is forecast to be
below 2 percent at the end of 2016, and ratchet up to only 3 percent at the
end of 2017, both low by historical standards.

With USD interest rates headed - finally, soon, but not too soon - higher - and thus the world's interest rates are going lower, while the USD rises in value.

For the geeky-minded, you'll see a very brief debate between two business economists - one hawkish, suggesting rapid interest rate rises coming sooner, and one dovish, forecasting a slow interest rate rise coming from the Fed.
SEE http://nbr.com/2015/03/17/transcript-nig...h-17-2015/

Judge the merits of their case for yourselves.

[DirectDanger]

My bet is the Fed does not raise interest rates in 2015.

[Orson]

(03-19-2015 10:33 AM)DirectDanger Wrote:  

My bet is the Fed does not raise interest rates in 2015.

Why, DD? Any particular reasons give you pause? Surely recent negative market trends can change; the fall is a long way off, and market conditions will adjust?

HSBC currency savant David Bloom says the dollar bull run is almost over.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...s-bull-run

USD might reach parity with Euro. But the extreme targets lower are out, he thinks.

The most arresting point (out of five in all) he makes is this:

Quote:

"The USD weakens in the early months of a Fed hike cycle" This one might sound counterintuitive, but HSBC has looked back over the previous four Fed tightening cycles of the past 30 years and discovered that each time, the U.S. dollar has fallen in the period immediately after the first rate rise.

This strikes me as pretty compelling claim.

This point accompanies an interesting currency year-over-year chart:



Another germane comment from Zerohedge argues that a dollar fall-off is coming quickly, unless there is a US GDP acceleration soon.

I think this notion is uncompelling...if world economies keep seeing weakness?
Will the turn in Europe gather, with all the Grexit uncertainty? I doubt it. Signs of strength to counter relative (overall) US economic dominance are not really obvious, yet.

[Cattle Rustler]

Zero hedge has been saying the same thing over and over again, the dollar is falling,yet keeps being proven wrong other than MBS.

[Spike]

The fallen Euro or the raised dollar. Whatever it is, i can't really travel to the States anymore. Not with the dollar and Euro almost on par.

[Orson]

(03-20-2015 08:37 AM)Cattle Rustler Wrote:  

Zero hedge has been saying the same thing over and over again, the dollar is falling,yet keeps being proven wrong other than MBS.

True.

Zerohedge is the Fountainhead of Pessimism! That's for sure. It is best consulted for data-checking, or else gaining perspective on what is driving pessimists.

But I do find that it takes notice of ignored facts - with impact sometimes seen working through the markets - over a few days to weeks in advance. And thus it may well be of help for medium-term trend followers...down.

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

I hope this dollar balloon doesn't blow out before I have the opportunity to spend my previously accumulated dollars for a huge windfall

[Copperfish23]

http://m.ktvz.com/money/5-travel-spots-t...s/32083666

Going to Santiago tomorrow, then Medellin next week. The dollar is 30 percent stronger than the last time I was in Medellin August of 2013.... its a trip....
Gonna have to pop 30% more bottles while I'm there I guess...