Quote: (01-23-2015 11:09 PM)Orson Wrote:  

PittFighter wrote:

Quote:Quote:

This is not related to US congress being controlled by one moderate group vs the other. It is partially related to activity of the Federal Reserve banks (a private entity), the European Central Bank, and fluctuations in global markets. These groups are minimally influenced by Congress. The strength of the Dollar is inextricably linked to the decline in the European market activity.
_ _ _

YES, market timing is utterly unrelated to change in political control of a record spending government! WHAT WAS I thinking! IGNORE THE CHART. Ignore the valence.

After all, QE for the Euro has only been talked about for months and years. I am so utterly and completely WRONG!

Sleep secure in the knowledge that political and fiscal policy change has no impact on investment flows and directions whatsoever!

Orson, Pittfighter is correct and you are incorrect. Fiscal as well as monetary policy influence currency valuations, but there has been no change in fiscal policy in the USA for years and the Federal Reserve has had to overcompensate on multiple occasions for this, only changes in monetary. AND there is something you are missing completely, all currency valuations are relative to another currency as Pittfighter sort of mentions when he references the USD/Pound......the USD doesn't just get cheaper or stronger in general...it only gets weaker or stronger in relation to another currency and this is mostly based on interest rate differential, growth expectations, inflation expectations, etc..The Federal Reserve has ended Quantitative Easing and the European Central Bank has just announced that on 1/22 it would begin to do Quantitative Easing in March at $60 billion Euros a month until September 2016 at the least. All monetary actions by Central Banks, no fiscal changes in this currency movement between the USD and Euro.

I would not be surprised if the Euro and US Dollar are at parity by the end of this year, multiple investment banks came out today and predicted 1.05 USD/EUR by year end.

USD/EUR at 1.11

Quote: (01-25-2015 10:23 PM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  

USD/EUR at 1.11

you posted the inverse
one euro divided by one dollar is 1.11

usd/euro is 0.895

PLEASE ALLOW ME TO POINT OUT THE RECENT ACCELERATION OF THE EURO'S DECLINE (as per the graphs above) AGAINST THE DOLLAR.

This first one is on weekly scale (ECB policy commitments, most recently); then on monthly scales (US elections); then seasonal factors (oil price declines since summer), and then over years (like Fed Bank policies).

Concomitantly, there’s been GDP declines - slowly in China, surprisingly in Japan, and periodically in emerging markets - and the latter more coordinately, as China’s slack has grown.

I did not throw out the political point idly (US becoming safer haven for foreign investors with divided government in Washington, DC - a point growing ever since Putin took Crimea and continued on with Eastern Ukraine after November’s election), or causally without a larger context.

Currency flows that support or change values between zones have long-term cycles, predominately. But what counts as a less-significant sub-trend within a longer term cycle? And a long-term change of more lasting significance?

The latter event - just as in any recession - takes a series of variables lining up to reinforce lesser ones.

A close friend of mine is a commodities and financial futures trader for his own company. He has been for over a dozen years. And, naturally, he would tell you all this.

My disappointment here comes in dealing with people being obtuse or obstinate. Usually, this comes from people’s motivated “reasoning.”

My buddy relies on technical analysis to stay in business - tracking the multiple variables that reinforce trends concurrently with price action, when and where they arise. And even small players have to do the same, or live to regret not doing so.

It seems there are plenty of others here needing this kind of service done for them. Denial is not a sound market trading tool. (Quite the reverse!) Which is why non-market player opinions are generally pretty worthless.

So - moving back to the Big Picture - who else has travel or relocations plans influenced by this important decline in the Euro? And rise in the US dollar?

the Euro zone is still far from being a bargain destination for Americans . However the zloty has fallen to around 3.75 to the dollar. I do have one question. The hryvinia is 15.9 to the dollar but a girl in Kharkov told me that the unofficial exchange rate is 20 hryvinia to the dollar and you can only take 500 hryvinia from banks on a given day. Has anyone exchanged money unofficially in Ukraine before?

Quote: (01-29-2015 12:54 AM)Paranagua89 Wrote:  

the Euro zone is still far from being a bargain destination for Americans . However the zloty has fallen to around 3.75 to the dollar. I do have one question. The hryvinia is 15.9 to the dollar but a girl in Kharkov told me that the unofficial exchange rate is 20 hryvinia to the dollar and you can only take 500 hryvinia from banks on a given day. Has anyone exchanged money unofficially in Ukraine before?

Yeah, the euro would have to drop to parity with the dollar before eurozone countries become "cheap". Still, considering how weak the euro has gotten, it is not out of the realm of possibility that party could happen.

As for unofficial exchanges, check out the Ukraine thread. Word on the street is there is a booming black market for dollars/euros in Ukraine.

Euro/USD at a 12 year low today touched 1.06, will be at parity soon and possibly lower, one large investment house came out today and said it will go to 0.85, just to put this in perspective one year ago it was about 1.40, that's how much cheaper/on sale Europe is now for holders of the US Dollar. EU here I come.

Looking at a really long term chart on the EUR/USD you can see how much further it could fall.

This chart goes back to 1994, which is well before the Euro was introduced. I think how they get the chart so far back is using a basket of the previous euro currencies compared with the dollar.

It has broken through a wedge formation and there is no more support levels until 0.85. There should be a bounce pretty soon. Things don't normally go straight down.

If the fed raises interest rates in June The EUR/USD will go below $1 fast.

Those waiting to see if airfare will drop due to cheap oil don't count on it. Airfare prices will stay the same with profit of lower gas being spent on upgrades (new planes, new terminal, etc)

Quote: (03-10-2015 03:41 PM)chyamor Wrote:  

Those waiting to see if airfare will drop due to cheap oil don't count on it. Airfare prices will stay the same with profit of lower gas being spent on upgrades (new planes, new terminal, etc)

Who cares about airfares. Everything else will get cheaper: housing, food, entertainment, etc...

The eurozone will be a bargain if the euro trades below par with the dollar.

Even at par it will be a bargain. I just hope the USD stops it's rapid ascent verse the CAD.

Canada is looking great right now

Fuck, this time last year I was getting 12.6 pesos to the dollar in Mexico

Now it's 15.5???

Quote: (03-10-2015 07:15 PM)Mentavious Wrote:  

Canada is looking great right now

Fuck, this time last year I was getting 12.6 pesos to the dollar in Mexico

Now it's 15.5???

At first I thought you were BSing, then I went to Google and checked.

Holy shit, I'm booking a trip to Mexico City.

King dollar is back!

One to one parity coming soon - but talk that

"Euro could fall to 85 cents..." not long after.

PULLQUOTE: "It's a once-in-a-century event, really. We've never had a period where the Fed is about to hike rates over the next few months while at the same time the second-biggest economic bloc of the world is engaging in an unprecedented QE with negative rates," Saravelos said.

A ONCE IN A CENTURY EVENT? Epic opportunity, people.

Is Orson some Republican troll. Coming out of the Gates with CAPS and telling others to be "in denial" when faced with sound arguments is something I expect from people who thinks the X-files was a documentary.

SEK has lost nearly 30% to the USD over the last year. If you've ever wanted to come to SWE but been put off by the coat now is the time to plan it. Spring is coming up and with it the 3-4 month window when the place is at its best?

I want to see the Tour De France before I die. Bicycling has been a huge part of my life, a joy I didn't need any approval from anyone for.

Quote: (03-10-2015 03:28 PM)DirectDanger Wrote:  

Looking at a really long term chart on the EUR/USD you can see how much further it could fall.

This chart goes back to 1994, which is well before the Euro was introduced. I think how they get the chart so far back is using a basket of the previous euro currencies compared with the dollar.

It has broken through a wedge formation and there is no more support levels until 0.85. There should be a bounce pretty soon. Things don't normally go straight down.

Do you know enough about this to recommend what type of options to cheaply buy to lock in low Euro prices for say 12-18 months?

I'm thinking if it hits 85 I can spend $500-1000 on a bull call spread/bear put spread in some leveraged thing and be able to get cheap Euros for a while.
My moderate experience with investing is things always overshoot, like oil has or is doing now. I heard it costs $50 to get it out of the ground, so it's essentially impossible for it to remain below 50 for long.

Iberian and German real estate is cheap now, not to mention places like Bulgaria.

If the Euro falls it will be crazy low, like buying for a years' rent elsewhere.

I'm still trying to decide between Ireland and Scotland for a ginger hunt. I'm earning in USD, can anyone tell me if the drop in euro will make Ireland equivalently priced to Scotland? From everything I've read Scotland has historically been a bit cheaper than Ireland, but I'm not sure how this drop affects the balance.

Quote: (03-13-2015 05:20 AM)iknowexactly Wrote:  

Quote: (03-10-2015 03:28 PM)DirectDanger Wrote:  

Looking at a really long term chart on the EUR/USD you can see how much further it could fall.

This chart goes back to 1994, which is well before the Euro was introduced. I think how they get the chart so far back is using a basket of the previous euro currencies compared with the dollar.

It has broken through a wedge formation and there is no more support levels until 0.85. There should be a bounce pretty soon. Things don't normally go straight down.

Do you know enough about this to recommend what type of options to cheaply buy to lock in low Euro prices for say 12-18 months?

I'm thinking if it hits 85 I can spend $500-1000 on a bull call spread/bear put spread in some leveraged thing and be able to get cheap Euros for a while.
My moderate experience with investing is things always overshoot, like oil has or is doing now. I heard it costs $50 to get it out of the ground, so it's essentially impossible for it to remain below 50 for long.

I know enough about options to get in trouble. I would hate to give advice on the subject and not have it work out.

I trade futures contracts only. Mostly CL (crude oil), NG (natural gas), GC (gold), SI (silver), ES (S&P 500), 6E (EUR/USD), 6J (JPY/USD), ZB (30 year treasury bond).

"Brazil’s Real Reaches Weakest Point in 12 Years...


The real was trading at 3.2221 to the dollar at 11:03 a.m. local time, according to Tullett Prebon via FactSet, the weakest level for the currency since 2003. The real closed at 3.1581 on Thursday."

Quote: (03-13-2015 05:12 AM)Vicious Wrote:  

Is Orson some Republican troll. Coming out of the Gates with CAPS and telling others to be "in denial" when faced with sound arguments is something I expect from people who thinks the X-files was a documentary.

Neither a Pubbie nor an "X-Files" fan, am I (although some of my friends are).

As for the "faced with sound arguments," bit - I assume you mean something like this from PittFighter (SEE page 1), who writes: "The strength of the Dollar is inextricably linked to the decline in the European market activity....The dollar is mostly getting strong compared to currency that is experiencing low confidence/bad market (euro and yen)."

Except that this is clearly wrong - as shown by recent months macro eocnomic data surprises, as internationally compared here:




In fact, the US economy looks historically weak, the weakest since 2007 (which is a truly distressing reminder anticipating the financial crisis of 2008):



Only payroll data for the US economy has been significantly positive for several months (1.3 million + for the past four months). So why has the stock market been at (or near) historic highs, despite this negative news? And why all this USD/Euro, etc, action now? (I'm asking because I've been quite surprised that no one answers the same way I do.)

Interest rates.

The US is - and has had ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Policy) for years. We are at the bottom end of a roughly 30 year's cycle of interest rate declines. (China's just joined the game of lowering interest rates to help with their economic weakness - a recent policy reversal.)

Much of all this since the Great Recession - like with Japan and the Euro - has been a competitive game of currency debasement to boost exports, hoping to goose GDP results positively. Europe is thought to be two or three years behind in this cycle. (But it could be less).

Because US central bank interest rates are widely expected to finally rise by June or September (at the very latest), the USD becomes the more attractive currency to hold. Thus, international money is chasing higher interest rates. Ergo, the USD rises in value and other currencies fall.

The instrument especially affected by interest rate changes are bonds - and therefore the bond market - which is roughly TWICE the size of the total equities market. This is why the currency fluctuations since last year are huge.

Consider the size of the "elephant" in the living room. The US bond market makes up roughly 30% of the total global bond market. (Over $35 trillion versus over $82 trillion, 2011 data.)

Feel free to check out the data and breakdowns, here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bond_market
and here:
http://finance.zacks.com/bond-market-siz...-5863.html

Lastly, as for the "troll" charge Viscious has laid at me, I'll let the forum poster's judge that.

I say this is gonna be a great year to live or travel abroad. And if you have the fortitude for it, this years is going to mark the international real estate investment opportunity of a lifetime, as well. Maybe for the next two years, too.

Plan accordingly! As somebody once said, "Live long and prosper."

An important message to the neophytes reading here about my last post, about bonds.

When interest rates rise, the (capital) value of a bond - especially long-term bonds - falls. (And vice versa for much of the past decade: as interest rates plummeted after the 2008 financial crisis, the value of bonds rose - sometimes enormously.)

This is counter-intuitive. With equities, one thinks up in price means greater value. And it is! But bonds - being a time-bearing instrument instead of a directly valued asset like "stocks" - move in value inversely to interest rates.

This shift in policy, called "yield-curve normalization," is extremely important for directing capital to best-use purposes. People in finance have called the business era since the housing bubble "crazy."

The craziness has long continued. And only changes like the one happening this year, resulting in this enormous shift towards dollar dominance, can help lead money-investments back towards their most productive uses.