[Akula]

Basically the capital markets don't think they will be put into default...Argentina has until August 4th to work things out...they are solvent and this is a bit of a weird default this time around...lot of hedge fund guys are pretty bullish on Argentina actually once this gets sorted out.

I love Zerohedge but be aware they are the biggest worryworts on the planet and see the downside in almost every story.

From Reuters:

"But it is a far cry from the mayhem following the crash in 2001-2001 when the economy collapsed around a bankrupt government and millions of Argentines lost their jobs.

This time the government is solvent. How much pain the default inflicts on Argentina, which is already in recession, will depend on how swiftly the government can extricate itself from its obligations.

"This is a very particular default, there is no solvency problem, so everything depends on how quickly it is solved," said analyst Mauro Roca of Goldman Sachs.

Buenos Aires had argued that agreeing to the hedge funds' demands to pay them in full would break a clause barring it from offering better terms than those who accepted steep writedowns in the 2005 and 2010 swaps.

That clause expires on Dec. 31, however, after which the government would be able reach a deal with the funds. Many investors and economists hope for some solution after then.

"Our base case is that a default would be cleared by January 2015," said Alberto Bernal, a partner at Miami-based Bulltick Capital Markets. He projected that a default would cause the economy to shrink 2 percent this year compared with a previous market consensus for a 1 percent contraction."

[Mekorig]

(07-31-2014 12:23 AM)MichaelCorleone Wrote:  

Explains it all perfectly

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-30...bad-debtor

Crime which is already high there is gonna get worse, there will be electricity problems cops will want bigger bribes it might be anarchic there soon. People will want US dollars and will be willing to do allot for them including rob you. Watch your butt if u head there until things simmer down. This is a serious thing no one is gonna lend them money in capital markets for a bit of time. If you are brave though and have USD this will be a huge opportunity for you.

You are seeing too much "ned of the world" movies dude. too apocaliptic. Not even in 2001 we reach that low.

[Sonsowey]

People acting like Argentina is about to lose it need to cool their jets. It is a safer country than the United States. Keep your perspective here. During our recent economic collapse in the U.S. some people imagined we might see a sharp rise in violent crime. And that never happened.

[Akula]

^^^ the more I think about it, given the amount of violent crime in the US I think Americans should be the last people in the world to be talking up 'increasing crime' statistics anywhere. If you take a good hard look at crime in the US it's crazy and seems to be getting worse what with all the drug, gang and other violence going on. Not to mention the prevalence of 'rape culture' and the 'war on women'!!

(ha ha just kidding on those last two (which are utter lies))

Kyle Bass, a very smart US-based hedge fund manager, is pretty bullish on Argentina. He's bought a ton of bonds at 55 cents on the dollar and thinks once Kirchner is out and any even slightly more pro business president is in things will change rapidly for the better. Recent stories on why here:

http://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bass...ghs-2013-9
http://www.businessinsider.com/kyle-bass...ghs-2013-9

From the articles:

"People don't understand what is happening there. Lots of things there are fixable. The leadership in control has "issues". Energy has been an issue, but recently there have been major energy findings that will change that. Two years from now, he (Bass) thinks there will be a new President in October 2015 and pro business people will be running things to take advantage of vast prairies of nature resources. Argentina's problems can be fixed in 2 years. Now is the time to start investing. Sees 50% upside in the sovereign debt.

Basically what Bass is saying is that once Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, Argentina's fiery populist-ish President with a cult-like following, is gone, a more favorable government can go in and overhaul the economy.

And indeed the winds of political change have blown in Argentina, even if softly. Fernandez de Kirchner's party had a nasty time of last month's mid-term elections, garnering 30% of the country's vote down from 52% two years before."

[Orson]

Argentine culture reflects their Italianate roots - and a rable mostly incapable of responsible self-governance.

Where else did a leading first-world nation lose their vast wealth and progress without a war? Where else does a nation keep re-electing fascist-populists every decade or two?

Argentina is the poster-child for Brown Shirt dictators and charismatic losers, with whom Venezuela now embarrasses their Bolivarian heritage over.

"Losers" need suckers! I hope the type like Bass make boatloads on The People's insanity.

[GauchoNomade]

(08-01-2014 02:23 AM)Orson Wrote:  

Argentine culture reflects their Italianate roots - and a rable mostly incapable of responsible self-governance.

Where else did a leading first-world nation lose their vast wealth and progress without a war? Where else does a nation keep re-electing fascist-populists every decade or two?

Argentina is the poster-child for Brown Shirt dictators and charismatic losers, with whom Venezuela now embarrasses their Bolivarian heritage over.

"Losers" need suckers! I hope the type like Bass make boatloads on The People's insanity.

This

Argentina is a diluted Italy in cultural ways

For those who say that the argentinean women will get easier or desperate in crisis times, look at Southern Europe,,,, no such thing happened

[Handsome Creepy Eel]

Quote:

Where else did a leading first-world nation lose their vast wealth and progress without a war? Where else does a nation keep re-electing fascist-populists every decade or two?

Even even if we consider Falklands a serious war, it's still a great sentiment.

[Tail Gunner]

(08-01-2014 01:08 AM)Akula Wrote:  

^^^ the more I think about it, given the amount of violent crime in the US I think Americans should be the last people in the world to be talking up 'increasing crime' statistics anywhere. If you take a good hard look at crime in the US it's crazy and seems to be getting worse what with all the drug, gang and other violence going on.

Utter nonsense. The violent crime rate in the U.S. has gone down for four decades. Murder rates are at a forty-year low and just "Between 1993 and 2012, the violent crime rate (homicide, robbery, rape and aggravated assault) in the United States dropped by 48 percent."

Moreover, "During the same period, the violent crime rate in New York City dropped by 71 percent." An incredible statistic: New York City's decline in homicides have now dropped to an annual rate not seen since the end of the Korean War (i.e., 1953).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-weiss...60996.html

This phenomenon also highlights the fact that if you refrain from visiting the most dangerous gang infested areas of any nation's largest cities, you have an extremely low chance of encountering violent crime:

"In 1993, violent crime in New York accounted for nearly 9 percent of all violent crimes reported in the United States, it's now slightly above 3 percent of all U.S. violent crime, which is roughly the proportion of New York City's population within the country as a whole."

No offense intended Akula, but it is you who needs to "take a good hard look at crime in the US." You should not make such claims based on a handful of sensational news stories, the propaganda of the media, or by watching Hollywood movies. By analogy, most of the U.S. population ignorantly believes that Colombia is an hyper-dangerous place that only a fool would visit. But we know better.

[Sonsowey]

Compare the Homicide rates of Argentina with other common destinations in the Americas. Murders per 100,000 people per year:

Canada: 1.6
Cuba: 4.2
USA: 4.8
Argentina: 5.5
Costa Rica: 8.5
Mexico: 21.5
Dominican Republic: 22.1
Puerto Rico: 26.5
Colombia: 30.8
Jamaica: 39.3

If things get bad in Argentina, it may get as violent as Costa Rica!!!

P.S. I was wrong about it being safer than the U.S. Slightly more dangerous, in terms of homicide.

[El Chinito loco]

What these statistics don't mention is that average violent crime statistics don't mean much. The reason why is that the extremely high crime rates in the shit war zone neighborhoods increase the average for the nation as a whole. The chances of your average gringo tourist stumbling into a favela or war torn cartel ghetto is pretty rare.

In most upper or upper middle class areas the crime rates are similar worldwide. Which is to say it's pretty safe most of the time unless you go out looking for trouble.

[Akula]

(08-01-2014 11:28 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(08-01-2014 01:08 AM)Akula Wrote:  

^^^ the more I think about it, given the amount of violent crime in the US I think Americans should be the last people in the world to be talking up 'increasing crime' statistics anywhere. If you take a good hard look at crime in the US it's crazy and seems to be getting worse what with all the drug, gang and other violence going on.

Utter nonsense. The violent crime rate in the U.S. has gone down for four decades. Murder rates are at a forty-year low and just "Between 1993 and 2012, the violent crime rate (homicide, robbery, rape and aggravated assault) in the United States dropped by 48 percent."

Moreover, "During the same period, the violent crime rate in New York City dropped by 71 percent." An incredible statistic: New York City's decline in homicides have now dropped to an annual rate not seen since the end of the Korean War (i.e., 1953).

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mike-weiss...60996.html

This phenomenon also highlights the fact that if you refrain from visiting the most dangerous gang infested areas of any nation's largest cities, you have an extremely low chance of encountering violent crime:

"In 1993, violent crime in New York accounted for nearly 9 percent of all violent crimes reported in the United States, it's now slightly above 3 percent of all U.S. violent crime, which is roughly the proportion of New York City's population within the country as a whole."

No offense intended Akula, but it is you who needs to "take a good hard look at crime in the US." You should not make such claims based on a handful of sensational news stories, the propaganda of the media, or by watching Hollywood movies. By analogy, most of the U.S. population ignorantly believes that Colombia is an hyper-dangerous place that only a fool would visit. But we know better.

Ok hold on it's not 'utter nonsense.' Violent crime is up in the US and it's getting worse in many places - there are certainly many more 'no-go' zones than there ever were just look at LA and certain parts of New York & Chicago. Sure if you're in a gated community or fairly high end neighborhood with a good security system you'll generally be ok. But there's a reason we have to put up those gated communities and have all these special security systems more and more.

Violent crime was up 15% last year in the US. Property crime was up 12%. Places like the South Side of Chicago have seen a massive spike in killings and violence. There is cause for concern in the US and it's not hyperbole. I agree that it's not in the best areas, and for the most part it's centered around certain poverty-level or gang infested areas.

Crime Is Getting Worse: Violent Crime In America Increased By 15% Last Year

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-10-25...-last-year

Couple more stories on the rise of violent crime in the US this past year:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/natio...s/3180309/
http://nypost.com/2013/10/24/violent-cri...across-us/

NYC is a bad example to use for comparative purposes and not indicative of overall crime in the US. It's a very specific situation whereby intensive policing was implemented starting under the Giuliani regime during the 90s when NYC was practically a war zone. In the 70s if you went above 86th street on the West Side or to many other neighborhoods you were guaranteed to get robbed or worse - it was that bad. Crime was at exorbitant levels and thus heavy policing and 'zero tolerance' became the answer due to how awful it had become. So NYC is not a example for the rest of the US by any stretch but rather a more specific example of where heavy policing helped solved a very high crime problem.

Also, as many articles have stated, the US prison system is overwhelmed and a lot of violent and other crimes that might put a perpetrator in jail many times end up with lighter sentencing to keep them out. Lot of crimes go unreported as well given how generally un-policed some areas are and how many illegals we have running around doing everything from stealing copper wires to auto theft.

There's also a ton of political pressure on cities and police forces to show that they are 'doing something' about crime and thus a lot of the data gets massaged, modified or just plain thrown out to make the crime problem look better than it really is. Many times murders or other violent crimes that go unsolved get lowered to 'unexplained' or some other category to massage the data. Here's an example from Chicago:

http://www.chicagomag.com/Chicago-Magazi...ime-rates/

(BTW there were 82 shootings over July 4th weekend this year too (16 deaths)!!)

Also, crime rates are generally well above where they historically were up until the 60s and 70s when the US started to get more dangerous so that statistic that "violent crime has been going down for 4 decades" you mentioned is bogus. There are WAY more gangs and organized crime outfits now doing their dirty work and the level of violent crime skyrocketed in the 70s and 80s and has really not dropped since then.

Anyway, although crime seems to be getting worse IMO on the whole in the US I think the consensus is that it's sort of 'flattening out' in terms of violent crime and as you said it's concentrated in certain areas. If you live in a nice neighborhood as you said you'll generally be ok, but IMO it's creeping more into all areas including things like meth labs out in bumf*ck USA and gang violence in public schools even in good neighborhoods.

Quote:

No offense intended Akula, but it is you who needs to "take a good hard look at crime in the US." You should not make such claims based on a handful of sensational news stories, the propaganda of the media, or by watching Hollywood movies. By analogy, most of the U.S. population ignorantly believes that Colombia is an hyper-dangerous place that only a fool would visit. But we know better.

No offense taken agree with this actually and hear the point(s) The media definitely like to sensationalize everything.

[Tail Gunner]

(08-02-2014 03:23 AM)Akula Wrote:  

Violent crime was up 15% last year in the US. Property crime was up 12%. Places like the South Side of Chicago have seen a massive spike in killings and violence. There is cause for concern in the US and it's not hyperbole. I agree that it's not in the best areas, and for the most part it's centered around certain poverty-level or gang infested areas.

You say "last year" but then you cite information for 2012, not 2013. For the first half of 2013, crime fell significantly (although the USG has not yet released crime statistics for the second half of 2013).

Quote:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation reported Tuesday that homicides dropped nearly 7 percent in the first half of 2013, compared with the same period a year earlier. Violent crime fell 5 percent.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/201...es-to-fall


"Places like the South Side of Chicago have seen a massive spike in killings and violence." Who the hell cares? Your original point was about the overall crime rate in the U.S., not a huge City run by socialists.

The fact is that the U.S. has the lowest murder rate since the 1960s. It is safe almost everywhere. That was the original point. There is no need for gated communities. Almost no one I know lives in a gated community.

So, I still think that your original comments were utter nonsense: "If you take a good hard look at crime in the US it's crazy." Nothing crazy. Not even close!

But I do appreciate the exchange of information.

[Akula]

(08-02-2014 10:15 AM)Tail Gunner Wrote:  

(08-02-2014 03:23 AM)Akula Wrote:  

Violent crime was up 15% last year in the US. Property crime was up 12%. Places like the South Side of Chicago have seen a massive spike in killings and violence. There is cause for concern in the US and it's not hyperbole. I agree that it's not in the best areas, and for the most part it's centered around certain poverty-level or gang infested areas.

You say "last year" but then you cite information for 2012, not 2013. For the first half of 2013, crime fell significantly (although the USG has not yet released crime statistics for the second half of 2013).

Quote:

The Federal Bureau of Investigation reported Tuesday that homicides dropped nearly 7 percent in the first half of 2013, compared with the same period a year earlier. Violent crime fell 5 percent.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Justice/201...es-to-fall


"Places like the South Side of Chicago have seen a massive spike in killings and violence." Who the hell cares? Your original point was about the overall crime rate in the U.S., not a huge City run by socialists.

The fact is that the U.S. has the lowest murder rate since the 1960s. It is safe almost everywhere. That was the original point. There is no need for gated communities. Almost no one I know lives in a gated community.

So, I still think that your original comments were utter nonsense: "If you take a good hard look at crime in the US it's crazy." Nothing crazy. Not even close!

But I do appreciate the exchange of information.

As has been reported, annual violent crime was up 15% yoy - that's a lot and a 7% drop form a recent peak is clearly not getting back to where it was pre drop. If you have updated data then great pls share I was just using what I thought was the latest - guess annually that was 2012, not surpised the bozos haven't put out full year 2013 yet.

As I indicated the data is also massaged and police and governments are actively trying to make appear better than it actually is. They've been doing this for years really and all you have to do is just see how incredibly politically correct much of the reporting (or lack thereof) is to know we're constantly being lied to.

But I don't need statistics though all I have to do it look around the dump that has become much of middle and lower middle class America to see how far we've fallen. As for cities other than Chicago, well, DC's mostly a shithole, Detroit is an utter disaster, Phoenix has become quite dangerous in large parts of the city, New Orleans has not recovered, SoCal is pretty dicey in many areas outside the really nice ones too. Hell there's an entire thread on how fucked up Florida is. You got MS-13 in schools, meth labs sprouting all over the smaller towns across the country and all sorts of out of work people with more time on their hands as well.

I'm not saying it's Fort Apache: the Bronx everywhere but I'll stand by my claim that there's a ton of crime in the US and in many places you'd better be careful. Agree that on the whole that most places are pefectly safe. But there's a reason people are buying more and more guns these days or thinking about how to defend themselves. Maybe me saying 'it's crazy' was a little hyperbolic, but what I see now in the US versus what I grew up with is a whole new ball game full stop.

[Sonsowey]

So with crime in the U.S. increasing, Argentina may yet turn out to be safer than staying at home.

[Corroncho]

When you walk around most places in the United States, it definitely feels safer than Latin America- you don't see the razor wire, broken glass and tall gates like you see in Central and South America (even in the really nice neighborhoods). A random criminal encounter is typically less likely, and the police presence is greater. But if you do find yourself getting robbed or mugged, I think you may be better off in Latin America, where typically it's just an impoverished guy who desperately needs money. You give him your money and phone, and probably everyone walks away. The States has a much more glorified gang culture, where sometimes a guy will kill you just for rep, or because he didn't like the way you looked at him.