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Well you should have PM'd me. Didn't see this until now.
If you're so confident, give me 4-1 odds for $100 and I MIGHT consider it.
The title of this thread is "Romney is a bullshitter" but I think a fair subtitle could definitely be: Tenderman is also a bullshitter.
You said you wanted 3 to 1, I countered with 2 to 1 on 500; you say your work involves negotiation so let me cue you on a basic tenet of negotiations, you should counter offer with something more towards my line or stay firm in your original offer, not offer me worse odds than your opening salvo. From 3 to 1 to 4 to 1? That doesn't even make sense…
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Or let me put it this way -- if the ex-professional gambler is so sure about the outcome, given such percentages, he wouldn't HESITATE to give me those odds, now would he?
Let me put it this way: As a gambler you look for odds that give you an edge. You have offered me what is essentially an even money proposition considering the latest poll and bookmaker projections. Obama is a 4 to 1 favorite to win and you offered me 4 to 1 on my money. That is even money. The reason is offered 2 to 1 is because that gives me an edge. You apparently need a refresher on your statistical training.
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there is a reason he's an ex-professional gambler not a current one
Yeah, because the game I play (online multi-table cash holdem/omaha) is now illegal in the United States. Were it still legal, I would most likely still be playing.
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Here's the deal -- in my work I am involved in a lot of negotiations. The ex gambler offered 3-1. I countered with the possibility of 4-1 --
Um, no. You said you wanted 3 to 1 and
I countered with 2 to 1 then YOU countered with 4 to 1, which doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
And I quote (from your earlier offer):
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Oh, by the way...ex-professional gambler, will you give odds? Say 3-1? That might be interesting.
You clearly suck at negotiating. Just saying'…
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2-1 in unacceptable to me. Come back with another offer.
I said I wanted the bet that weekend an you crawdadded out of it. But I'll still offer you 2.5 to 1 on 500.