[JayMillz]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/poll-...32764.html

[Samseau]

Could we make a promise to each other not to post polls months before the general election?

[Deluge]

(03-14-2012 10:08 PM)Samseau Wrote:  

Could we make a promise to each other not to post polls months before the general election?

Agreed, the swing against Obama with the changing gas prices highlight how useless the polls are at this time of the year.

[JayMillz]

With all the propaganda and misinformation about gas prices as a correlation with commander and chief, the poll showing the President ahead of the competition was timely.

[Samseau]

Dude, who gives a damn. All of these polls are bullshit.

[JayMillz]

(03-15-2012 10:02 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

Dude, who gives a damn. All of these polls are bullshit.

Obviously you do since you came into this thread.

[Excelsior]

[gringochileno]

Samseau's right, polls at this point are pretty meaningless because there will be many more swings in them before the election takes place. This far out from the election, intrade is probably the most reliable indicator you can get of Obama's reelection chances since it reflects the odds that people are willing to bet real money on (it has Obama at a 60% chance of being re-elected as of this post).

That said, if I had money to invest I would have made a killing betting against Ron Paul and for Romney to win the Republican nomination. Intrade's had some pretty clearly unjustifiable prices for both of them considering that Romney's had it in the bag for a while and Paul never had any shot.