[Brian]

Can you say President Romney??

http://www.businessinsider.com/cbs-poll-...-41-2012-3

[gringochileno]

Probably an outlier. Gallup has him at 49%.

[Brian]

if the NYT and WashPost, both very liberal papers, are reporting a drop I cant imagine its anything other then that. When was the date of the Gallup poll? I think the NYT and WashPost polls are very recent.

[JayMillz]

   

[Smitty]

I find rasmussen reports to be pretty accurate. They had Romney up on Obama by six or seven points the other day. Pity because I can't stand either of them.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/

[speakeasy]

If it's true, probably due to gas prices. Americans are an extremely fickle group of voters. If the gas prices dropped 75 cents tomorrow, Obama's ratings would shoot up to 60%, whether he had anything to do with it or not.

[Samseau]

Who cares. Obama hasn't even started to campaign yet. He's gonna mop the floor with Romney.

[porscheguy]

(03-13-2012 01:12 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

Who cares. Obama hasn't even started to campaign yet. He's gonna mop the floor with Romney.

At this point in 1980, they were saying Carter would mop the floor with Reagan.

[thegmanifesto]

(03-13-2012 01:20 AM)porscheguy Wrote:  

(03-13-2012 01:12 AM)Samseau Wrote:  

Who cares. Obama hasn't even started to campaign yet. He's gonna mop the floor with Romney.

At this point in 1980, they were saying Carter would mop the floor with Reagan.

At this point they were saying Bush was going to mop the floor with Clinton.

[Hencredible Casanova]

It's all about the swing states, not how popular one candidate is over the other on a national level. Pay attention to states like Ohio and Florida. Obama is very much in danger of losing those states, thus losing the election. The spike in gas prices, nagging unemployment, war in Afghanistan, and a sense that government is broken and solutions are not looming on the horizon are all very dangerous factors for the incumbent.

[speakeasy]

Was just listening to this story on the radio. They confirmed what I suspected. His ratings are falling entirely due to the gas prices rising. In the last poll taken, Obama had a lead over both Romney and Santorum in a head-to-head matchup. It's not the economy people are even responding to as the numbers are not getting worse.

It just astounds me how fucking myopic and ill-informed Americans are. They actually think the President has something to do with gas prices! No matter how much try to drill in their heads that prices are controlled on the international market and the US has only 2% of the world's proven reserves, it doesn't fucking matter. They think Obama has a switch he can flip and make the pain go away. I guess Clinton was smart when he played realpolitik in '96 by opening the strategic reserve going into the final months of the election and caused gas prices to fall. Republicans were searing mad.

[Deluge]

(03-13-2012 02:13 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  

Was just listening to this story on the radio. They confirmed what I suspected. His ratings are falling entirely due to the gas prices rising. In the last poll taken, Obama had a lead over both Romney and Santorum in a head-to-head matchup. It's not the economy people are even responding to as the numbers are not getting worse.

It just astounds me how fucking myopic and ill-informed Americans are. They actually think the President has something to do with gas prices! No matter how much try to drill in their heads that prices are controlled on the international market and the US has only 2% of the world's proven reserves, it doesn't fucking matter. They think Obama has a switch he can flip and make the pain go away. I guess Clinton was smart when he played realpolitik in '96 by opening the strategic reserve going into the final months of the election and caused gas prices to fall. Republicans were searing mad.

“I think just being the president of the United States of America, you would have some type of control over gas pricing, said Jamie Haber, 39, an independent voter of Orlando..."

- http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/pol...C1FF363BF5

[assman]

(03-12-2012 09:13 PM)speakeasy Wrote:  

If it's true, probably due to gas prices. Americans are an extremely fickle group of voters. If the gas prices dropped 75 cents tomorrow, Obama's ratings would shoot up to 60%, whether he had anything to do with it or not.

^^^ This.

Things like the economy, unemployment, and gas prices in autumn will be what determines the election.

[speakeasy]

(03-13-2012 02:27 AM)P Dog Wrote:  

(03-13-2012 02:13 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  

Was just listening to this story on the radio. They confirmed what I suspected. His ratings are falling entirely due to the gas prices rising. In the last poll taken, Obama had a lead over both Romney and Santorum in a head-to-head matchup. It's not the economy people are even responding to as the numbers are not getting worse.

It just astounds me how fucking myopic and ill-informed Americans are. They actually think the President has something to do with gas prices! No matter how much try to drill in their heads that prices are controlled on the international market and the US has only 2% of the world's proven reserves, it doesn't fucking matter. They think Obama has a switch he can flip and make the pain go away. I guess Clinton was smart when he played realpolitik in '96 by opening the strategic reserve going into the final months of the election and caused gas prices to fall. Republicans were searing mad.

“I think just being the president of the United States of America, you would have some type of control over gas pricing, said Jamie Haber, 39, an independent voter of Orlando..."

- http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/pol...C1FF363BF5

See what I mean??? Seriously, if they required a 4 year degree and a thorough civics course as a requirement to vote, no Republican would ever win an election again.

You also can't discount the possibility that the oil industry is pushing prices upward in order to try and squeeze Obama out and get a more Big Oil friendly administration. Domestic production is up and American consumption is down since Obama took office. Normally that would mean prices go down. Rather than blame the president, people should follow the money.

"Over all, 54 percent of poll respondents believed that a president can do a lot to control gas prices, as opposed to 36 percent who believe they are beyond a president’s control."

You see, it wouldn't even anger me so much if people were punishing Obama for actual things under his control. But the poll above shows that the majority of Americans don't even understand what sets the price of oil. They probably don't even realize that we already pay WAY LESS for gas than any other industrial nation. Do these people ever talk to someone that lives in Canada or England or Sweden and see what the rest of the world is paying for gas? We are paying much less than most the world.

It's looking like this election is going to be as much of a nail-biter as 2000.

[Deluge]

(03-13-2012 02:32 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  

(03-13-2012 02:27 AM)P Dog Wrote:  

(03-13-2012 02:13 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  

Was just listening to this story on the radio. They confirmed what I suspected. His ratings are falling entirely due to the gas prices rising. In the last poll taken, Obama had a lead over both Romney and Santorum in a head-to-head matchup. It's not the economy people are even responding to as the numbers are not getting worse.

It just astounds me how fucking myopic and ill-informed Americans are. They actually think the President has something to do with gas prices! No matter how much try to drill in their heads that prices are controlled on the international market and the US has only 2% of the world's proven reserves, it doesn't fucking matter. They think Obama has a switch he can flip and make the pain go away. I guess Clinton was smart when he played realpolitik in '96 by opening the strategic reserve going into the final months of the election and caused gas prices to fall. Republicans were searing mad.

“I think just being the president of the United States of America, you would have some type of control over gas pricing, said Jamie Haber, 39, an independent voter of Orlando..."

- http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/13/us/pol...C1FF363BF5

See what I mean??? Seriously, if they required a 4 year degree and a thorough civics course as a requirement to vote, no Republican would ever win an election again.

[Smitty]

(03-13-2012 02:13 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  

It just astounds me how fucking myopic and ill-informed Americans are. They actually think the President has something to do with gas prices! No matter how much try to drill in their heads that prices are controlled on the international market and the US has only 2% of the world's proven reserves, it doesn't fucking matter. They think Obama has a switch he can flip and make the pain go away.

The people elect a President to enact the policies on which he campaigned. Obama campaigned heavily on removing America's dependence on foreign oil. 3 1/2 years in and what progress has he made?

I think most Americans know Obama cannot flip a switch, but polls show the majority of Americans support drilling in this country as they believe it would drive prices down. Why hasn't Obama pursued this option?

Like it or not, the people elect a President to be the figurehead of the nation - to give credit and blame - when things happen in the country. When the U.S. took out Osama, Obama took/received all the credit. Conversely, when gas prices rise and the mood in the nation turns sour, the President loses favorability. Been that way since the beginning.

[joehoya]

(03-13-2012 05:28 AM)Smitty Wrote:  

The people elect a President to enact the policies on which he campaigned. Obama campaigned heavily on removing America's dependence on foreign oil. 3 1/2 years in and what progress has he made?

Actually he has made significant progress in this area. If you look at domestic oil production, it has skyrocketed since the Obama administration. In fact, the United States, for the first time since 1949, is a net oil EXPORTER.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-29...-2011.html

(03-13-2012 05:28 AM)Smitty Wrote:  

I think most Americans know Obama cannot flip a switch, but polls show the majority of Americans support drilling in this country as they believe it would drive prices down. Why hasn't Obama pursued this option?

As I stated above, he has. More to the point, the real question is will an increase in U.S. domestic oil production significantly decrease the price of gasoline in the U.S.. The answer to that is NO.

The reason is because oil, regardless of whether it is produced in the U.S., is sold on the open, international market. So if oil is discovered and pumped out of North Dakota for $20 per barrel, Shell or Exon are not going to sell it to the U.S. for $60 per barrel just because it is "our oil" if the Chinese are willing to pay $110 per barrel. We have to pay the same rate as everyone else, even though the oil was originally pumped out of U.S. soil.

So, assuming that we kept our same laws regarding oil speculation and allowing U.S. companies to sell American oil internationally, the only way increased US drilling would significantly decrease the cost of gasoline would be if the amount of oil was so vast that it would significantly increase the WORLD supply of oil.

Having said that, are there things that the president could do that would decrease the price of gas? YES. The number one thing he could do is to pursue an aggressive policy to curb oil speculation. Oil speculation (not actual supply and demand issues) has been the number one driver for the skyrocketing gas prices.

Think about it. gas has more than doubled in the past 3 years. Has the U.S. or world economy's demand for oil doubled in the past 3 years? Of course not. Has the world supply of oil been cut in half over the past 3 years? Again, of course not. We have increased oil production world wide and are attempting to open new drilling projects everywhere we even suspect there may be oil.

Even if the president doesn't ultimately get oil speculation reform passed, the real possibility of it being enacted would cause oil speculators to panic and start selling off/shorting oil. The result would be that oil prices would drop dramatically. The biggest downside to this policy politically for the president is twofold. First, hedge funds and oil companies would absolutely flood anti-Obama superPACs with money to defeat him. Second, it would make it easier for Republicans to throw the "socialist who doesn't believe in capitalism/the free markets" label on him.

[Anon-A-Moose]

GOP isn't united, and the Average Joe is still not on board with their line. We're still bitter over Bush, I think, too. A Ron Paul-like candidate would have a chance. Another white christian conservative? Nope.

[Commander Shepard]

(03-12-2012 09:00 PM)Brian Wrote:  

Can you say President Romney??

http://www.businessinsider.com/cbs-poll-...-41-2012-3

LOL, you base the a U.S. presidential electoral result on a poll taken in March.


I mean really?

[Commander Shepard]

(03-13-2012 09:22 AM)Anon-A-Moose Wrote:  

GOP isn't united, and the Average Joe is still not on board with their line. We're still bitter over Bush, I think, too. A Ron Paul-like candidate would have a chance. Another white christian conservative? Nope.

Taken from David Wong on Cracked.com

Quote:

At this point in McCain's run, he was at 54% favorable, 31% unfavorable. Obama was at 57% favorable, 31% unfavorable. John Kerry was at 51/25.

Romney? 43% favorable, and 42% unfavorable... before the general election campaign has even started.

That's why at one point Romney was polling behind Donald Trump. And Herman Cain. And Rick Perry. And Rick Santorum. And Newt Gingrich.

Yes, he's winning primaries. That' because he has an insurmountable money advantage and just carpet bombs those states with negative ads against the rest, driving up their negative poll numbers until he looks good by comparison (he often outspends his opponents 50-1 or more). But turnout is down, and polls show voters wish there was another candidate in the race.

This narrative that voters aren't enthusiastic about him isn't made up out of thin air; it's based on the polling.

Read more: The 2012 Presidential Election Horse Race - Tracking Who is Winning and Losing | We Saved Hitler's Brain | Cracked.com Forums http://www.cracked.com/forums/topic/3959...z1p0xVfvsS

[chyamor]

dont forget, the current president has an ace up his sleeve with the emergency oil reserve. All he has to do is say we are not letting high gas prices slow us down going into the fall/winter blah blah. I have oked the release of x amount from the emergency reserve blah blah

[Excelsior]

(03-13-2012 02:13 AM)speakeasy Wrote:  

It just astounds me how fucking myopic and ill-informed Americans are. They actually think the President has something to do with gas prices! No matter how much try to drill in their heads that prices are controlled on the international market and the US has only 2% of the world's proven reserves, it doesn't fucking matter. They think Obama has a switch he can flip and make the pain go away. I guess Clinton was smart when he played realpolitik in '96 by opening the strategic reserve going into the final months of the election and caused gas prices to fall. Republicans were searing mad.

[speakeasy]

(03-13-2012 05:28 AM)Smitty Wrote:  

The people elect a President to enact the policies on which he campaigned. Obama campaigned heavily on removing America's dependence on foreign oil. 3 1/2 years in and what progress has he made?

First off, domestic oil production has soared under Obama, so it's not like he didn't deliver on that: http://thinkprogress.org/green/2012/02/2...?mobile=nc

Secondly, he didn't promise energy independence in 4 years. Energy independence is impossible here when we have 2% of the world's oil supplies yet consume 25% of the world's oil. Rather than blaming the high prices on the president, every American should be asking why they chose to buy an SUV/crossover instead of a fuel-efficient vehicle. Or why they drive to work alone in these single passenger tanks instead of carpooling or taking public transit. Or why they choose to live in decentralized suburbs where you have to burn a gallon of gas to go buy a gallon of milk rather than opt for higher density, mixed-used urban planning. Or why we live in very large houses with high heating/cooling expenses compared to most middle class families in other industrial nations. Americans CHOOSE a high-energy dependence lifestyle, then blame Obama because the oil prices are high. It's mind-boggling.

Quote:

I think most Americans know Obama cannot flip a switch,

No, read the link I posted prior, a slim majority think the president has a lot of control over gas prices.

Quote:

but polls show the majority of Americans support drilling in this country as they believe it would drive prices down. Why hasn't Obama pursued this option?

Read the link I posted just above.

joehoya Wrote:

Even if the president doesn't ultimately get oil speculation reform passed, the real possibility of it being enacted would cause oil speculators to panic and start selling off/shorting oil. The result would be that oil prices would drop dramatically. The biggest downside to this policy politically for the president is twofold. First, hedge funds and oil companies would absolutely flood anti-Obama superPACs with money to defeat him. Second, it would make it easier for Republicans to throw the "socialist who doesn't believe in capitalism/the free markets" label on him.

Exactly. This is a perfect example of how big business interests and concentration of wealth subvert the democratic process. Obama should tackle this and enact speculation reform, but only after winning a second term. My question though how would this legislation stop speculators overseas? Since oil is a global commodity, I'm not sure passing legislation here would stop the speculation.