Quote: (11-02-2012 09:49 AM)IQVX Wrote:
Nate Silver's forecasting has always been wildly pro-Obama... take 538 with a grain of salt.
These attempts to paint Nate Silver as some sort of leftist partisan are misplaced. The reality is that Silver's model is the most accurate we have available. It is based on solid mathematical fundamentals and has a proven track record of effectiveness, not just in politics (2008 election and 2008 senate races, 2010 elections, etc) but also in Baseball, Football, and a host of other sports.
If you're going to take 538 with a grain of salt, then that's fine-I think Silver will agree with that, hence his use of confidence intervals with his projections. But that grain of salt should be much smaller than the one you take when looking at any other model or projection.
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That said, it does essentially come down to Ohio - which Obama has a good chance of winning.
Still, the last-minute affect could aid Romney in Ohio.
I'd say the odds are 60-40 in favor of Obama at the moment.
Silver (who has done a much more comprehensive analysis of the polling in the state while taking into account several mitigating factors) puts the odds at 80-20 in favor of Obama.
Know your enemy and know yourself, find naught in fear for 100 battles. Know yourself but not your enemy, find level of loss and victory. Know thy enemy but not yourself, wallow in defeat every time.